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☆ Markets think the odds of a Fed pause in December are rising
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementTraders see a 45% chance the Fed pauses rate cuts in December, up from 17% last week. The rising odds come as markets digest a win for Trump, whose policies could complicate the Fed's plans. After two consecutive interest rate cuts, markets think the Federal Reserve might be ready to hit pause. AdvertisementThe rising odds come as markets continue to digest a win for Donald Trump, and as Fed officials have sounded cautious on the path of future policy easing in recent remarks. AdvertisementThe rising odds of a pause also come as Fed speakers this week have struck a cautious tone.

Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, David Kelly, Jerome Powell, he'd, Trump, JPMorgan's Kelly, They're, Kelly, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Cook, Powell Organizations: Trump, Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Federal, University of Virginia Locations: West Palm Beach , Florida, Charlottesville, Dallas

☆ 'Go for gold' says Goldman Sachs, but other Wall Street banks aren't so sure
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Three Wall Street banks have taken differing views on gold's trajectory in 2025, reflecting the complex economic outlook. Goldman Sachs expects the price of the yellow metal to reach $3,000 per ounce by December 2025, saying "Go For Gold" in a note from Nov. 17. The gold price has declined by 7% since late October as the risk of a disputed U.S. election result diminished. While maintaining a positive outlook on gold, UBS warned that its gains — gold had risen 35% this year until November — could slow down. Goldman Sachs pointed to a fivefold increase in central bank gold purchases, driven by concerns about financial sanctions and sovereign debt sustainability.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump's, Goldman, Daan Struyven, Karen Ward, Ward, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Trump, JPMorgan Asset Management, UBS Locations: U.S, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Switzerland, Russia, Ukraine

☆ The hidden risk factor investors may be missing in stocks, bonds, and options
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Investors may soon be forced to take on more risk and rethink their diversification strategies due to macroeconomic uncertainties. And that presents challenges for those who follow the traditional balance of 60% stocks to 40% bonds as a diversifier, he added. "Momentum has really been driving equities higher across the board, especially with respect to large-cap growth names," Adams said. The study found that stocks, bonds, and options strategies could have more correlated risk than is evident on the surface. "So value stocks are about the here-and-now, growth stocks are about the hereafter."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jon Adams, Adams, Jimmy Chang, Donald Trump, Chang, Nikolai Roussanov, David Kelly, you've, Kelly Organizations: Calamos Wealth, Treasury, Rockefeller, Family, Wharton School, Morgan Asset Management

☆ Still in good environment for risk in equities and corporate credit, says JPMorgan's Santos
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStill in good environment for risk in equities and corporate credit, says JPMorgan's SantosGabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management chief market strategist for the Americas, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss if the market momentum can continue, the upper limit of the market's multiple, and much more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Santos Gabriela Santos Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ These 2 active ETFs have outperformed the S&P 500 this year, last year and over 5 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 has risen 24.73% so far this year, up fractionally more than last year's 24.23%, according to FactSet data. The U.S.-listed Gotham Enhanced 500 ETF , which has the ticker GSPY, has also posted similar gains since 2021. JREU-GB .SPX 5Y line GSPY The Gotham Enhanced 500 ETF is a newer fund and so has a shorter track record of outperformance. Yet it has beaten the S & P 500 every year since its inception in 2021. Gotham ETFs say the fund "buys all 500 stocks in the S & P 500 Index but reweights them, buying more of the ones we think are cheaper and less of the ones we believe are more expensive."

Persons: Piera Elisa Grassi Organizations: Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan U.S, Research, Equity, Gotham, JPMorgan Asset Management, CNBC, JREU, New York Stock Exchange Locations: London, U.S, Gotham

☆ Fed to ease policy unless there is an upside surprise in jobs market, says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed to ease policy unless there is an upside surprise in jobs market, says strategistIain Stealey, the international chief investment officer of fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, discusses the path of U.S. monetary policy.

Persons: Iain Stealey Organizations: Fed, Morgan Asset Management

☆ Anthony Scaramucci is worried about a stock-market crash not seen since the late 1920s if Trump follows through on some of his plans
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

AdvertisementUS stocks have been on a tear since Trump's win. "Let me tell you something: If Trump enacted 50% of what he's saying, you'll have a stock market crash, the likes that you haven't seen since the 1920s," Scaramucci said. You'll crush the economy; you'll crush our tax revenues; you'll flip upside down the job market," Scaramucci said. "They will not be ready for that, and so the stock market will have gotten wrong the current movement." "My guess is that the stock market aficionados, the stock market experts, are probably right," Scaramucci said.

Persons: SkyBridge Capital's Anthony Scaramucci, Trump, there's, Scaramucci, —, Anthony Scaramucci, it's, Bitcoin, Donald Trump's, didn't, David Bahnsen, he's, — Elon Musk, Elon, Tom Orlik, David Kelly, , Susie Wiles Organizations: Service, House, SkyBridge, Business, Nasdaq, Russell, Trump, Bloomberg Economics, JPMorgan Asset Management, Republican

☆ JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos: Next year's markets will be driven by policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Gabriela Santos: Next year's markets will be driven by policyAdam Parker, Trivariate Research founder and CEO; Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management global asset strategist; and Stephanie Guild, Robinhood head of investment strategy, join CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss market outlooks.

Persons: JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos, Adam Parker, Gabriela Santos, Stephanie Guild, Robinhood, CNBC's Organizations: Trivariate Research, JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Adam Parker, Gabriela Santos, & Stephanie Guild
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Adam Parker, Gabriela Santos, & Stephanie GuildAdam Parker, Trivariate Research founder and CEO; Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management global asset strategist; and Stephanie Guild, Robinhood head of investment strategy, join CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss market outlooks.

Persons: Adam Parker, Gabriela Santos, Stephanie Guild Adam Parker, Stephanie Guild, Robinhood, CNBC's Organizations: Trivariate Research, JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ Rising bond yields is due to fear around the deficit, says JPMorgan's Priya Misra
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRising bond yields is due to fear around the deficit, says JPMorgan's Priya MisraPriya Misra, JPMorgan Asset Management fixed income portfolio manager, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate cut decision this week, bond market volatility, state of the economy, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Priya Misra Priya Misra Organizations: JPMorgan, Management

☆ The sectors — and stocks — to buy in Asia after Trump's win, according to analysts
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Amala Balakrishner | In Amala-Balakrishner | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Former U.S. President Donald Trump's victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in this week's election has raised questions about how Asia will be impacted. "When passed, the [tariffs] will sweep across Asia, particularly China [and] should spike volatility and compress multiples as uncertainty prevails." Even so, the analysts say the region is "more prepared than in 2016" and investment opportunities remain, especially given the weaker yen and stimulus in China. This will bring about "structural shifts in global supply chain ... [and] could boost infrastructure spending in ASEAN and South Asia," he added. The currency has fallen versus the dollar following Trump's win, hitting 154.7 per dollar on Wednesday — its weakest level since July 30.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, India's, Hong, Tai Hui, Hui, Stocks, — CNBC's Lim Hui Jie Organizations: U.S, Trump, Macquarie Research, Nikkei, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Morgan Asset Management, Congress, Mitsubishi Electric, Mitsubishi, Japanese pharma, Chugai Pharmaceutical, SK Hynix Locations: Asia, China, ASEAN, South Asia, U.S, Macquarie, Japan

☆ Dollar winds down after volatile week, China NPC in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar further unwound some of its sharp gains from earlier in the week as traders closed out profitable bets on a Trump presidency after his election victory. That helped lift sterling back toward the $1.30 mark, while the yen similarly got some respite and hovered closer to the 153 per dollar level. Sterling last traded $1.2983, recovering from its fall to a roughly three-month low earlier in the week. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar ticked up 0.03% to 104.44, on track to gain just above 0.1% for the week. "All eyes are on what may emerge from China's policy toolkit after the conclusion of the NPC standing committee meeting."

Persons: Donald Trump's, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Kerry Craig, Trump, Wells, Jay Bryson, Sterling, David Chao Organizations: White, National People's Congress, Trump, Federal Reserve, Morgan Asset Management, Traders, Bank of England, NPC, New Zealand, Asia Pacific, European Union Locations: U.S, Beijing, Germany, Wells Fargo, Japan, Invesco

☆ Labor market is key focus of Fed rate cut, says Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLabor market is key focus of Fed rate cut, says Morgan Stanley's Jim CaronDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist; Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management CIO of cross asset solutions; and Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research chief economist join CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to discuss reactions to the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter point.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron David Kelly, Jim Caron, Morgan, Stephanie Roth, Wolfe, CNBC's Organizations: Labor, JPMorgan Asset Management, Morgan Stanley Investment, Wolfe Research, Federal

☆ A top mind at JPMorgan Asset Management warns of clear economic red flag after Trump's big win, despite soaring US stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

US stocks had one of their best days in years and hit new records after Trump's resounding win over Kamala Harris in Tuesday's election. Both of those moves make sense, said David Kelly, the global strategy chief at JPMorgan Asset Management, in an interview on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe strategy chief has been adamant that higher tariffs — one of Trump's key proposals — would cripple the US economy and endanger the global economic expansion. Related storiesMost economists condemn tariffs, which are taxes on imports, because they tend to lead to higher prices and lower economic growth. Sean Gallagher, the global head of Lazard's small-cap equity platform, made a similar point in a recent interview with Business Insider when asked about Trump's tariffs and Kelly's stance.

Persons: Stocks, Donald Trump, David Kelly, Wall, he's, —, Donald Trump's, Trump's, Kamala Harris, Kelly, Trump, Mahatma Gandhi, I'm, I've, Tom Orlik, who's, Chris Murphy, Susquehanna's, Orlik, Sean Gallagher, Gallagher, maven, He's, inflation's Organizations: House . Market, Service, Nasdaq, US, JPMorgan Asset Management, Republican, JPMAM, Bloomberg Economics, Business, Trump Locations: Tuesday's

☆ Want to dodge the market volatility and capture the upside? This JPMorgan ETF's manager reveals how he's doing it
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The JPMorgan Asset Management's U.S. fund, already the largest active ETF in the world, returned 21.5% in 2021, including 8.15% as income. In 2022, when the S & P 500 index nearly fell into a bear market, the fund lost just 3.5% in value. Over the past couple of years, the fund has returned 7% to 9% in income on top of capital appreciation. Spence stressed that JPMorgan did not intentionally time its entry into Europe on one of the most volatile weeks of the year for global markets. One such fund is Global X's covered call ETF XYLD , which marginally outperformed JPMorgan's JEPI over the past two years.

Persons: Donald Trump's, JEPI, Hamilton Reiner, Travis Spence, Spence, Reiner Organizations: JPMorgan, JPMorgan Asset Management's, CNBC, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Borse, Six Swiss, Asset Management, U.S, Presidential, Global Locations: Europe, Germany, U.S, London, Netherlands, Italy, Switzerland

☆ A Trump win could prompt the Fed to hit pause on its rate-cutting cycle, JPMorgan strategy chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-03 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

If Trump wins the election, the Fed could pause rate cuts in December, JPMorgan's David Kelly says. Kelly points to Trump's plans for expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation. Kelly pointed to Trump's plans for an expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation higher and keep rates from coming down. AdvertisementIn that case, the Fed would likely stick to its projected path of policy easing, Kelly said. Advertisement"Once they got some sense of what fiscal policy is going to do, I think that will have some impact on their decision-making.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, Kelly, Harris, —, Donald Trump, David Kelly, Trump, Kamala Harris, They're Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal, JPMorgan, Business, Fed

☆ US economic growth came in slightly under expectations but consumer spending remains strong
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

AdvertisementIn the third quarter, US economic growth fell short of expectations but remained strong. "The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending," the news release said. Consumer spending was a particular highlight, with personal consumption expenditures growing at a strong 3.7% annualized rate. AdvertisementThe weaker-than-expected GDP growth doesn't necessarily mean the US is heading toward a recession. Investment in nonresidential equipment had another strong quarter, surging at an annualized rate of 11.1%.

Persons: —, David Kelly, Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Investment, Fed, Morgan Asset Management, Commerce Department, Hurricane Locations: Hurricane

☆ The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders — but a veteran JPMorgan strategy chief says one underappreciated risk could cause a serious global slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Corporate earnings growth, productivity growth, and business fixed investment all seem to be headed in the right direction as well. Related storiesThese signals have given David Kelly, JPMAM's chief global market strategist, great confidence. Such tariffs would cause "seismic shocks to the US economy," Tom Orlik, the chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, said earlier this month. Charles Schwab global investment strategy chief Jeffrey Kleintop cited tariffs as a top risk back in June. "But oddly enough, the global economy bounced back anyway.

Persons: David Kelly, —, JPMAM, Kelly, Donald Trump who's, Tom Orlik, Charles Schwab, Jeffrey Kleintop, I'd Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Service, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Economics, Peterson

☆ Year-End Economic Forecast & 2025 Projections
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( Sharon Epperson | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYear-End Economic Forecast & 2025 ProjectionsNovember kicks off with a historic election followed by the next Federal Reserve meeting. How will the markets and the economy react to both events in the short and long term? J.P. Morgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist Jordan Jackson shares what investors can expect and how they should prepare heading into next year.

Persons: Jordan Jackson Organizations: Reserve, Morgan Asset Management Global

☆ 'Generational opportunity': Invest in real estate as stock and bond returns shrink, according to $3.5 trillion JPMorgan Asset Management
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-23 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

However, real estate — specifically the commercial side — may be poised to take off. "This is absolutely the largest generational opportunity to invest in real estate in a long time," Issar said at the conference. "This is a time for investors to step in, move into attractive pricing, move into asset classes like non-core real estate." Investors can bet on a commercial real estate rebound by working with JPMAM's team, or on their own through publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs). "That is the modernization of the new direct real estate that is going to be really attractive for investors in the future."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs, they're, That's, David Kelly, what's, JPMAM, Kelly, David Lebovitz, Monica Issar, Issar Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Service, Asset Management, Management, JPMorgan Private

☆ Weaker euro zone growth outlook has led ECB to October rate cut, CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWeaker euro zone growth outlook has led ECB to October rate cut, CIO saysIain Stealey, international chief investment officer of global fixed income currency and commodities at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, comments on what to watch for in the European Central Bank's October communications.

Persons: Iain Stealey Organizations: ECB, Morgan Asset Management, Central

☆ Just ignore the word ‘tariff’ — it’s a tax
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Especially when you hear words like “tariffs.”But, given the economy’s central importance in the 2024 race, it’s worth hammering on an Econ 101 fact: Tariffs are a tax on Americans. Very simply: When the US government decides to put a tariff (read: tax) on, say, Chinese goods, the actual money going to the US Treasury comes from the American company doing the importing. “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff,” Trump said at one point. But it’s important to judge Trump’s first-term trade policies and the Biden-Harris approach against context of the unprecedented tariff wave Trump is planning if he gets to Round Two. Bottom line: Tariffs might be a beautiful word to Trump’s ear, but he’s telling a fictional story about what they do in practice.

Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN —, Donald Trump, It’s, —, Annette Choi, Katie Lobosco, podcaster Sean Kelly, David Pakman, Kelly, he’s, ” Kelly, Pakman, “, Trump, ” Trump, John Micklethwait, Micklethwait, it’s, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Trump’s, Harris, ”, Scott Lincicome, United States —, ” David Kelly, Matt Egan Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, CNN, US Treasury, Bloomberg, Economic, of Chicago, Biden, Trump, Republican, Cato Institute, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal, Peterson Institute, Asset Management Locations: New York, China, United States, States

☆ Investors should be overweight equities versus fixed income, says JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should be overweight equities versus fixed income, says JPMorgan's Gabriela SantosGabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management chief market strategist for Americas, joins 'Squawk box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, where investors can find opportunities right now, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos Gabriela Santos Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

Wall Street's top performers are hard workers who tend to work long, intense hours. Business Insider asked its 2024 class of Wall Street stars about how they stay mentally sharp. Here's what we learned about the hacks, habits, and routines that help top talent on Wall Street stay on their game. The routine helps him stay present with his home life as well as work, he added. But I think those two things help me to at least stay recharged and stay ready each day," he said.

Persons: —, Mark Zhu, Craig Kolwicz, Goldman Sachs, Corey White, Nina Gnedin, Blake Cecil, Chi Chen, Robert Sapolsky, Justin Elliott, Read, Palmer Osteen, KKR's, I've, That's, Daniela Cardona, America's White, Ben Carper, it's, there's, Matthew Eid, Holm, Reinhard Dirscherl, Melissa Ding, Wells, Annie Cheslin, she's, Margaret Williams, Morgan Stanley, Williams, Apollo's Austin Anton, Erica Wilson's, deadlifted, Harrison DiGia, Patrick Lenihan, barre, Elizabeth Stone Redding, Stone Redding, Matt Gilbert, Thoma, Gilbert, I'm, Dan, Feroz Khosla, isn't Organizations: Business, Service, Blackstone, Finance, Goldman, of America, Man Group, Productivity, Bridgewater Associates, Bank of America, Fidelity Investments, RBC, Bank, America's, Jefferies, Capital Advisory, Ares Management, Getty, BlackRock, Blue, General Atlantic, JPMorgan Asset Management, TPG, Thoma Bravo, Citadel Securities Locations: Blackstone, Chicago, San Francisco, Coast, Boston, Silicon Valley, New York, I'm, Maldives, he's, Thailand, Central Park

☆ 'I am getting increasingly queasy': JPMorgan's strategy chief on why investors should dial back risk amid market distortions
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Yet, as markets eye a soft landing, potential shocks pose a higher risk to investors, David Kelly says. The firm's chief global strategist says the promise of a soft landing has encouraged Americans to pour into riskier assets at the exact time they shouldn't be. "I will say that although I think this is positive for the equity market, I am getting increasingly queasy about the fact that the equity market keeps on pricing in a soft landing," Kelly told Business Insider. He said that as the market prices in a soft landing, valuations rise, which means any shock to the market could send asset prices tumbling. According to Fed data, the total aggregate wealth of American households grew by about $50 trillion in the last five years.

Persons: David Kelly, —, Kelly, shouldn't, you've, payrolls Organizations: Service, Asset, Business, Federal

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