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It didn’t take long for former President Donald J. Trump to make a political weapon out of Monday’s market sell-off. “This is not good.”The post underscored Mr. Trump’s longstanding fixation on stock indexes as a barometer of economic health. It also reinforced the degree to which economic messaging — and the health of the economy itself — will play a key role in the sprint finish ahead of the presidential vote in November. American voters consistently tell pollsters that the economy and consumer prices are the most important issues facing the country. Mr. Trump wants voters to believe the economy is on the brink of catastrophe, and that Ms. Harris and President Biden are to blame.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, ” Mr, pollsters, Kamala Harris, Harris, Biden Organizations: “ Stock, Democratic
The Federal Reserve is likely to wait longer than initially expected to cut interest rates given stubborn inflation readings in recent months, the central bank’s top two officials said Tuesday. Policymakers came into 2024 looking for evidence that inflation was continuing to cool rapidly, as it did late last year. Instead, progress on inflation has stalled or even reversed by some measures. But he stopped short of saying he expected rates will need to stay at their current levels, 5.3 percent, deep into this year. Last month, Fed officials indicated that they expect to cut rates three times by the end of 2024.
Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, Philip N, Jefferson Organizations: Federal Locations: Washington
The unexpected re-acceleration in price growth across the economy is at least a temporary setback for President Biden, who has been banking on cooling inflation to lift his re-election prospects. Mr. Biden and his aides have publicly cheered the retreat of annual inflation rates over the last year, after watching the fastest price growth in 40 years dent the president’s approval ratings earlier in his tenure. Mr. Biden has been particularly focused on home buyers, including young voters who are key to his electoral coalition, and who are struggling to afford high housing prices as mortgage rates remain around 7 percent. Wall Street analysts saw Wednesday's surprise pickup in the inflation rate as a sign that the Fed could leave rates on hold for months longer than expected. That could mean no cuts before the November election, a campaign where Mr. Biden’s Republican opponent, former President Donald J. Trump, has slammed Mr. Biden for both rapid price increases and high borrowing costs.
Persons: Biden, Biden’s, Donald J, Trump Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Biden’s Republican
Federal Reserve officials do not set interest rates with presidential elections in mind. Investors do not widely expect rate cuts to be announced when Fed officials conclude a two-day meeting on Wednesday. Interest rate cuts could also help to improve housing affordability, an issue for young voters that has bedeviled the president. Falling interest rates could drive down mortgage rates. White House officials are careful not to comment on Fed rate decisions; Lael Brainard, a former Fed governor who heads Mr. Biden’s National Economic Council, laughed off a reporter’s question on the topic last week.
Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Biden, Lael Brainard Organizations: Federal, White, Fed, Investors, Economic Council Locations: Biden’s
Artificial intelligence has been a breakout star in the opening days of COP28, the United Nations climate summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Entrepreneurs and researchers have dazzled attendees with predictions that the fast-improving technology could accelerate the world’s efforts to combat climate change and adapt to rising temperatures. Exactly one year after the blockbuster debut of ChatGPT, the chatbot that introduced A.I. to hundreds of millions of people, the climate summit opened last week with a burst of events and announcements centered on A.I. Many were stocked with representatives from Microsoft, Google and other power players in the emerging A.I.
Organizations: United Arab Emirates . Entrepreneurs, ChatGPT, Microsoft, Google Locations: COP28, United Nations, Dubai, United Arab
The United States will, for the first time, require oil and gas producers to detect and fix leaks of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that wafts into the atmosphere from pipelines, drill sites and storage facilities and dangerously speeds the rate of global warming. Michael S. Regan, the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, announced the regulation in Dubai, where diplomats from nearly 200 nations have gathered for a two-week United Nations climate summit. Methane is not as widely discussed as the carbon dioxide that results from burning fossil fuels, but it has become a rare area of progress this week at the global talks. Vice President Kamala Harris, the top-ranking American official to visit the summit, was expected on Saturday to highlight the new rule in a speech to delegates. She was also set to announce several other new climate policy initiatives from the administration.
Persons: Michael S, Regan, Kamala Harris Organizations: Environmental Protection Agency Locations: States, Dubai, Nations, Brazil, Kenya, India, United States
In a far corner of the temporary village housing the United Nations climate summit, the world’s largest cartel of fossil fuel producers plied skeptical young activists with chocolate and free pens. A continent away, in Vienna, the cartel’s members were voting to give the summit what amounts to another very small climate treat: at least a temporary reduction in oil and gas drilling. That’s the opposite of what President Biden, who has made climate policy a top priority during his administration, is delivering from the United States. Those delegates are celebrating an accelerating global transition toward low-emission sources of energy like wind and solar power. But expanding renewables is not enough to save the planet, scientists warn, so many delegates are demanding that the world rapidly phase out its use of fossil fuels.
Persons: Biden Organizations: United Arab Emirates, Organization of, Petroleum Locations: United Nations, Vienna, United States, Dubai
President Biden signed the country’s first major climate law and is overseeing record federal investment in clean energy. In each of the past two years, he attended the annual United Nations climate summit, asserting American leadership in the fight against global warming. But this year, likely to be the hottest in recorded history, Mr. Biden is staying home. At the same time, climate activists, particularly the young voters who helped elect Mr. Biden, want the president to shut down drilling altogether. Internationally, developing countries are pushing Mr. Biden to deliver on promises for billions of dollars to help cope with climate change.
Persons: Biden, centrists, Mr Organizations: White House, Russia, Republican Locations: United Nations, Dubai, Israel, Ukraine, United States
President Biden will not attend a major United Nations climate summit that begins Thursday in Dubai, skipping an event expected to be attended by King Charles III, Pope Francis and leaders from nearly 200 countries, a White House official said Sunday. The official, who asked to remain anonymous to discuss the president’s schedule, did not give a reason Mr. Biden will not make an appearance at the two-week summit, known as COP28. But senior White House aides suggested that the war between Israel and Hamas had consumed the president in recent weeks and days, as he pressed for a pause in fighting and release of hostages held by Hamas. “They’ve got the war in the Middle East and a war in Ukraine, a bunch of things going on,” John Kerry, Mr. Biden’s special envoy for climate change, said last week. Mr. Kerry and his team will be in Dubai.
Persons: Biden, King Charles III, Pope Francis, “ They’ve, ” John Kerry, Biden’s, Kerry Organizations: White Locations: United Nations, Dubai, Israel, Ukraine
The 2022 climate law has accelerated investments in clean-energy projects across the United States. It has also delivered financial windfalls for big banks, lawyers, insurance companies and start-up financial firms by creating an expansive new market in green tax credits. The law, signed by President Biden, effectively created a financial trading marketplace that helps smaller companies gain access to funding, with Wall Street taking a cut. The law created a wide range of tax incentives to encourage companies to produce and install solar, wind and other low-emission energy technologies. But the Democrats who drafted it knew those incentives, including tax credits, wouldn’t help companies that were too small — or not profitable enough — to owe enough in taxes to benefit.
Persons: Biden Locations: United States
Look at economic data, and you’d think that young voters would be riding high right now. Inequality is down, wage growth is finally beating inflation, and the economy has expanded rapidly this year. On Instagram, jokes about poor housing affordability are a genre unto themselves. Social media reflects — and is potentially fueling — a deep-seated angst about the economy that is showing up in surveys of younger consumers and political polls alike. It suggests that even as the job market booms, people are focusing on long-running issues like housing affordability as they assess the economy.
Persons: Biden’s Organizations: Social
The Biden administration has overhauled how the federal government assesses the costs and benefits of regulation and some government spending programs, clearing a path for more aggressive efforts to fight climate change and help the poor. Officials at the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, a branch of the Office of Management and Budget, finalized a new and complicated set of rules on Thursday. They would change how federal agencies tally and weigh the potential value and harm of new regulations related to climate change, taxation, the distribution of disaster relief assistance and more. The federal government has long used so-called benefit-cost analysis when setting regulations that cover business activity, environmental pollution and much more. Its rules guiding those regulations were last changed during the George W. Bush administration, prompting many economists to complain that officials were not taking updated economic data and cutting-edge research into account when issuing regulations that can have vast consequences immediately and in the future.
Persons: Biden, George W, Bush Organizations: White, Office of Information, Regulatory Affairs, Management, Budget
Still, analysts say, electric vehicle sales are projected to jump sharply under the right conditions. Administration officials must speed the deployment of charging stations meant to ease the logistics of owning and driving an electric vehicle. Mr. Biden is trying to jump-start the electric vehicle market as the global transition to cleaner fuels is accelerating more quickly than expected. The administration’s policies to boost electric vehicles aren’t just aimed at climate change. Without an American supply chain, electric vehicles can’t qualify for the full $7,500 consumer tax credit the law created.
Persons: Biden, — they’re, , Rhett Ricart Organizations: Ricart Automotive, National Automobile Dealers Association Locations: U.S, America, Columbus , Ohio
Mr. Reagan’s appeals worked in part because Americans had just endured more than a decade of persistently high prices and high interest rates. Economists and historians generally agree that voters came to see the progress under Mr. Reagan as relief from a long, difficult period. Voter psychology is very different under Mr. Biden. Those mortgage rates Mr. Reagan trumpeted? The difference is that under Mr. Reagan, rates fell, and under Mr. Biden, they’ve gone up.
Persons: Reagan, Reagan’s, Biden, Biden’s, they’ve, , Francesco D’Acunto, D’Acunto Organizations: Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business, White House Council, Economic Locations: America
Six years ago, an executive from Suniva, a bankrupt solar panel manufacturer, warned a packed hearing room in Washington that competition from companies in China and Southeast Asia was causing a “blood bath” in his industry. More than 30 U.S.-based solar companies had been forced to shut down in the previous five years alone, he said, and others would soon follow unless the government supported them. Suniva’s pleas helped spur the Trump administration to impose tariffs in 2018 on foreign-made solar panels, but that did not reverse the flow of jobs in the industry from going overseas. Last month, Suniva announced plans to reopen a Georgia plant, buoyed by tariffs, protective regulations and, crucially, lavish new tax breaks for Made-in-America solar manufacturing that President Biden’s signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, created. Solar companies have long been the beneficiaries of government subsidies and trade protections, but in the United States, they have never been the object of so many simultaneous efforts to support the industry — and so much money from the government to back them up.
Persons: Suniva Organizations: Suniva Locations: Washington, China, Southeast Asia, U.S, Georgia, America, United States
Biden administration officials, worried that a growing conflict in the Middle East could send global oil prices soaring, are looking for ways to hold down American gasoline prices if such a jump occurs. President Biden tapped the reserve aggressively last year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices skyrocketing, leaving the amount of oil in those reserves at historically low levels. The conflict in the Middle East has not yet sent oil prices surging. Administration officials are wary of the possibility that prices could again jump above $5 a gallon, a level they briefly touched in the spring of 2022. “In some ways, they’ve missed the boat.”
Persons: Biden, That’s, Mr, , Amrita Sen, Sen, , they’ve Organizations: Biden, nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, AAA Locations: Saudi Arabia, Gulf of Mexico, Ukraine, Israel, Iran
The Biden administration said on Monday that it had chosen 31 regions as potential recipients of federal money that would seek to fund innovation in parts of the country that government investment overlooked in the past. The announcement was the first phase of a program that aims to establish so-called tech hubs around the country across a variety of cutting-edge industries, like quantum computing, precision medicine and clean energy. In the coming months, the regions will compete for a share of $500 million, with roughly five to 10 of the projects receiving up to about $75 million each, the administration said. The program will test a central idea of a bipartisan bill that lawmakers passed last year: that science and technology funding should not just be concentrated in Silicon Valley and a few thriving coastal regions but flow to parts of the country that are less populated or have historically received less government funding. Proponents of the program say these investments can tap into pools of workers and economic resources that are not reaching their full potential, and improve the American economy as well as its technological abilities.
Persons: Biden Locations: Silicon Valley
America’s federal budget deficit appears to have roughly doubled over the year to $2 trillion, a surprising jump given the strength of the economy. The deficit is the gap between how much the government spends and how much it receives in taxes. White House officials initially predicted that the deficit would hit about $1.7 trillion in the 2023 fiscal year, which ended last month. The surging deficit is a surprise given that the economy grew faster than expected over the last year. Administration officials have sought to blame Mr. Biden’s predecessor for the deficit surge.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden, Biden’s, Mr Organizations: White, Supreme, Treasury Department, Administration, Republicans, Mr
Goldman Sachs economists have estimated that a shutdown would reduce growth by about 0.2 percentage points for each week it lasts. But the Goldman researchers expect growth to increase by the same amount in the quarter after the shutdown as federal work rebounded and furloughed employees received back pay. That estimate tracks with previous work from economists at the Fed, on Wall Street and prior presidential administrations. Trump administration economists calculated that a monthlong shutdown in 2019 reduced growth by 0.13 percentage points per week. Because growth and confidence tend to snap back, previous shutdowns have left few permanent scars on the economy.
Persons: Gregory Daco, ” Biden, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Trump Organizations: Administration, shutdowns, Congressional, Office Locations: EY
President Biden’s labor and environmental goals are colliding in the auto industry, where concerns over the electric vehicle transition underpin an autoworkers strike. But in states like Maine, unions and environmental groups have teamed up in an attempt to make a central promise of the president’s green agenda come true for workers. Mr. Biden has a favorite phrase when talking about the expansive climate bill he signed into law last year: “When I think climate — not a joke — I think jobs,” he said last month at the White House. “When I say climate means jobs, I mean good-paying union jobs.”That has not yet been the case for Mr. Biden’s agenda. Their efforts center on the development and deployment of offshore wind power, a sector that, like electric vehicles, is crucial to Mr. Biden’s economic and emissions goals.
Persons: Biden’s, Biden, Organizations: White Locations: Maine, Tennessee, South Carolina, Michigan
The 2022 law, which passed with only Democratic support, aided factory investment in conservative bastions like Tennessee and the swing states of Michigan and Nevada. The law also helped underwrite a spending spree on electric cars and home solar panels in California, Arizona and Florida. The law so far has failed to supercharge a key industry in the transition from fossil fuels that Mr. Biden is trying to accelerate: wind power. Domestic investment in wind production declined over the past year, despite the climate law’s hefty incentives for producers. And so far the law has not changed the trajectory of consumer spending on some energy-saving technologies like highly efficient heat pumps.
Persons: Biden Organizations: Democratic Locations: United States, American, Midwest, Tennessee, Michigan, Nevada, California , Arizona, Florida
The big headache of President Biden’s Summer of 2022 — high gasoline prices — may once again bedevil him this week. Gas prices jumped by about 25 cents a gallon nationally from mid-July to mid-August, topping out around $3.87 per gallon before receding slightly into September. The national average price of gas was $3.85 per gallon on Wednesday, according to AAA. It will almost certainly provoke criticism from Republicans who hammered Mr. Biden over high gas prices throughout last summer. Prices fell steadily last summer, a development that Mr. Biden celebrated.
Persons: Biden’s, Biden Organizations: AAA, nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve Locations: Ukraine
Lucrative new tax breaks and other incentives for advanced manufacturing that President Biden signed into law appear to be reshaping direct foreign investment in the American economy, according to a White House analysis, with a much greater share of spending on new and expanded businesses shifting toward the factory sector. Data that include the first months after the enactment of two pieces of that agenda show that a key measure of foreign investment fell slightly from 2021 to 2022, adjusted for inflation. The numbers suggest that, in the early months after the bills were signed, the hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars that Mr. Biden is directing toward manufacturing have not increased the overall amount of foreign direct investment in the economy. Instead, the laws appear to have shifted where foreign investment is being directed. A new analysis by the White House Council of Economic Advisers shows the composition of what’s known as capacity-enhancing spending on new structures or expansions of existing ones shifted rapidly toward factories, in line with one of Mr. Biden’s top economic goals.
Persons: Biden Organizations: White House Council, Economic Advisers
When the Fitch Ratings agency announced this week that it was downgrading its long-term credit rating of the United States from AAA to AA+, Biden administration officials were ready — and angry. Administration officials had been lobbying Fitch against the downgrade, which bewildered many economists but became immediate fodder for congressional Republicans and nonpartisan budget hawks to criticize the nation’s current fiscal direction. When the ratings agency went through with the move anyway, President Biden’s team mobilized a rapid response, with economic heavyweights inside and outside the administration criticizing the timing and substance of the announcement. The swift pushback was an effort to keep the downgrade from tarnishing Mr. Biden’s economic record amid a run of good news in key measures of the health of the American economy. And its aggressiveness reflected the critical importance of an improving economic outlook to Mr. Biden’s re-election campaign.
Persons: Biden, Fitch, Biden’s, Mr Organizations: Fitch, AAA, AA Locations: United States
Government data released Tuesday showed that boom continued in June, with spending on manufacturing facilities up nearly 80 percent over the past year. The manufacturing sector as a whole has added nearly 800,000 jobs since Mr. Biden took office and now employs the most people since 2008. Measures by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board suggest consumers have grown happier with the current state of the economy and more hopeful about the year ahead. Hourly wages outpaced price gains in the spring for the first time in two years, giving consumers more purchasing power. National opinion polls still show a sour economic mood — but it appears to be improving slightly.
Persons: Biden, , Joseph Brusuelas Organizations: RSM, University of Michigan, Conference Board, New York Times, Siena College Locations: Siena
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