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☆ Key inflation rate hits 2.1% in September, as expected, closing in on Fed target
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation increased slightly in September and moved closer to the Federal Reserve’s target, according to a Commerce Department report Thursday. The personal consumption expenditures price index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% increase for the month, with the 12-month inflation rate at 2.1%, both in line with Dow Jones estimates. Fed officials target inflation at a 2% annual rate, a level it has not achieved since February 2021. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast but the same as in August. Consumer spending rose 0.5%, topping the outlook by 0.1 percentage point.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Commerce Department, Fed, Energy, Labor Department, of Labor Statistics

☆ Private job creation totaled a stunning 233,000 in October, far more than expected, ADP says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

ADP said it was the best month for job creation since July 2023. “Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said. Job creation was strongly concentrated in companies with 500 or more employees, which added 140,000 of the total. The ADP report traditionally tees up the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Services. The BLS report showed private job gains of 223,000 in September and 254,000 total payrolls growth.

Persons: Dow Jones, Nela Richardson, Helene, Milton — Organizations: North Carolina, Boeing, Federal Reserve, Manufacturing, Bureau of Labor Services, ADP, BLS Locations: U.S, Florida, North

☆ The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the third quarter, less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. economy posted another solid though slightly disappointing period of growth in the third quarter, propelled higher by strong consumer spending that has defied expectations for a slowdown. The economy accelerated at a 3% pace in the second quarter. Personal consumption expenditures, the proxy for consumer activity, increased 3.7% for the quarter, the strongest performance since Q1 of 2023. The release comes with the Federal Reserve poised to lower inflation rates further despite the seemingly strong economy and inflation that remains above target, though far from its peak in mid-2022. Markets widely expect the Fed to cut another quarter percentage point off its benchmark short-term borrowing rate when policymakers conclude their two-day meeting on Nov. 7.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Gross, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Fed Governor Waller sees need for 'more caution' ahead when lowering interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Monday signaled that future interest rate cuts will be less aggressive than the big move in September as he expressed concern that the economy could still be running at a hotter-than-desired pace. The Federal Open Market Committee at its September meeting took the unusual step of lowering its baseline interest rate by a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, to a target range of 4.75%-5.0%. Along with the cut, officials indicated the likelihood of another half point lopped off in the final two meetings of 2024, along with another full percentage point of cuts in 2025. In the final revision for second-quarter growth, the Commerce Department also punched up the level of gross domestic income gain to 3.4%, an adjustment of 2.1 percentage points from the previous estimate and closer in line with GDP. “These revisions suggest that the economy is much stronger than previously thought, with little indication of a major slowdown in economic activity,” Waller said.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Waller, ” Organizations: Federal, Stanford University, The, Fed, Commerce Department

☆ Powell indicates further, smaller rate cuts, insists the Fed is 'not on any preset course'
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +4 min

But we are not on any preset course,” he told the National Association for Business Economics in prepared remarks. A basis point equals 0.01%. “We do not believe that we need to see further cooling in labor market conditions to achieve 2 percent inflation,” Powell added. For his part, Powell expressed confidence in economic strength and sees inflation continuing to cool. Broader economic conditions also set the table for further disinflation.”Following the speech, Powell was scheduled to sit for a question-and-answer session with Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ”, ” Powell, Powell, “, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, Committee, Fed Locations: Nashville

☆ The Fed slashed interest rates last week, but Treasury yields are rising. What’s going on?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +6 min

The Treasury market, though, hasn’t been paying attention. Officials penciled in another 50 basis points in reductions by the end of the year and another 100 by the end of 2025. That sentiment is evident in the “breakeven” inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. Taken together, the various dynamics in the Treasury market are making it a difficult time for investors.

Persons: hasn’t, ”, Jonathan Duensing, — haven’t, “, Robert Tipp, We’re, Jerome, Powell, ” Duensing, Tom Garretson, “ They’d, There’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation, RBC Wealth Management

☆ Consumer confidence fell more than expected this month
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

The board’s Consumer Confidence Index slid to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August, the biggest one-month decline since August 2021. By contrast, the index had a reading of 132.6 in February 2020, a month before the Covid pandemic hit. Each of the five components the organization samples fared worse on the month, with the biggest fall coming among those aged 35-54 and earning less than $50,000. “Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.

Persons: Dow, ”, Dana Peterson, Stocks, ” Peterson Organizations: Conference Board, Treasury, Federal Reserve

☆ Fed Governor Bowman explains dissent on rate vote, says she’s worried about inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she thought her colleagues should have taken a more measured approach to last week’s half percentage point interest rate cut as she worries that inflation could reignite. In explaining her rationale, Bowman said the half percentage point, or 50 basis point, reduction posed a number of risks to the Fed’s twin goals of achieving low inflation and full employment. Though Bowman favored a reduction, she preferred the Fed lower by a quarter percentage point, more in line with the traditional moves at the central bank. In recent statements, Fed officials have cited easing inflation and a softening labor market as justification for the cut. At last week’s meeting, individual policymakers indicated they expect another half percentage point in cuts this year and another full point in 2025.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, ” Organizations: Federal Locations: Kentucky

☆ Fed Governor Waller backs interest rate cut at September meeting, open to larger move
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Friday backed an interest rate cut at the upcoming central bank policy meeting in less than two weeks, and indicated he’d be open to a substantial reduction if necessary. Other policymakers recently have advocated easing policy soon, but this is one of the clearest indications it will happen at the Sept. 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. “Determining the pace of rate cuts and ultimately the total reduction in the policy rate are decisions that lie in the future,” Waller added. With inflation and employment near our longer-run goals and the labor market moderating, it is likely that a series of reductions will be appropriate,” he said. Futures market pricing following the jobs report tilted toward a greater likelihood of a quarter percentage point rate reduction this month.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Waller, verbiage, Jerome Powell, —, nonfarm, Dow Jones, ” Organizations: Federal, Council, Foreign Relations, Labor Department, Dow Locations: New York

☆ Markets are counting on the Fed to head off recession with sizeable interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +5 min

Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, ”, Andrew Hollenhorst, ‘, ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, “, “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko

☆ U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in December, as strong jobs market tops expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

Payroll growth decelerated in December but was still better than expected, a sign that the labor market remains strong even as the Federal Reserve tries to slow economic growth. The job growth marked a small decrease from the 256,000 gain in November, which was revised down 7,000 from the initial estimate. Stock market futures rose following the release as investors look for signs that the jobs market is cooling and taking inflation lower as well. The relative strength in job growth comes despite repeated efforts by the Fed to slow the economy, the labor market in particular. The headline unemployment rate is tied for the lowest since 1969.

☆ U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in November, more than expected despite Fed rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +1 min

Job growth was much better than expected in November despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to slow the labor market and tackle inflation. Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 for the month while the unemployment rate was 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 200,000 on the payrolls number and 3.7% for the jobless rate. In another blow to the Fed’s anti-inflation efforts, average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% for the month, double the Dow Jones estimate. Wages were up 5.1% on a year-over-year basis, also well above the 4.6% expectation.

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