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☆ With odds of a Trump win rising, here's what it could mean for Europe's economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Former US President Donald Trump during a campaign event at Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami, Florida, US, on Tuesday, July 9, 2024. "Trump's re-election would thus pose a significant downside risk to our otherwise constructive growth forecast for the Euro area." Trade policy uncertainty, added defense and security pressures and spillover effects from U.S. domestic policies on, for example, taxes could impact Europe, they explained. Trade tensionsTrump's trade policy, and the uncertainty around it, could be one factor that impacts Europe's economy, just as it did during his last presidency, analysts Stehn and Moberly said. In 2018 and 2019, uncertainty about trade policy reduced industrial production in the euro area by around 2%, they estimated.

Persons: Donald Trump, Eva Marie Uzcategui, Goldman Sachs, Jari Stehn, James Moberly, Trump's, Trump, Joe Biden, Moberly Organizations: Trump National Doral Golf Club, Bloomberg, Getty, White, Trump, European Union, EU, . Defense, NATO, U.S, Stehn Locations: Miami , Florida, Europe, Pennsylvania, U.S, Germany, Stehn, Moberly, Ukraine

☆ Bernanke Review: How the former Fed boss could shake up the Bank of England
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Former Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke speaks during a discussion on "Perspectives on Monetary Policy" during the Thomas Laubach Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, DC, May 19, 2023. LONDON — The Bank of England will on Friday publish a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke that could lead to significant changes in its monetary policymaking. The review was launched last summer to assess the Bank's struggles to accurately project the huge global spike in inflation, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The first deals with how the Bank of England communicates uncertainty around its central forecasts. The "fan chart" is the Bank's long-held method of presenting the probability distribution that forms the basis of its inflation forecasts.

Persons: Ben Bernanke, BOE, Goldman Sachs, Bernanke, Goldman, Jari Stehn, James Moberly, Stehn Organizations: Federal Reserve, Thomas Laubach Research, Federal Reserve Board, LONDON, Bank of, Federal, MPC, Bank of England, Bank Locations: Washington , DC, Bank of England, Ukraine

☆ Bank of England's next move divides economists as data paints a mixed picture
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, attends the Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Press Conference, at the Bank of England, London, Britain, February 2, 2023. Pool | ReutersLONDON — Market expectations are split over the Bank of England's next monetary policy move on Wednesday, as policymakers near a tipping point in their fight against inflation. The other 38% of market participants expect a second consecutive 50 basis point hike, after the central bank surprised markets with a bumper increase in June. watch nowThe British economy has proven surprisingly resilient, despite a run of 13 consecutive rate hikes from the Bank of England. "While core inflation surprised to the downside in June, services inflation momentum remains strong.

Persons: Andrew Bailey, Goldman Sachs, James Moberly, Ibrahim Quadri, Jari Stehn, BoE, Goldman, —, Abbas Khan, Mariano Cena, Silvia Ardagna, Matthew Swannell, Paul Hollingsworth, Andrew Bailey's Organizations: Bank of England, Press, Bank of, Monetary, British Retail Consortium, MPC, Fed, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PMI, Bank of England's, Barclays, BNP Paribas Locations: London, Britain, Sintra

☆ Bank of England poised to raise rates again to tackle stubborn inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Investors are fully pricing in another quarter-of-a-percentage point increase in Bank Rate, taking the BoE's benchmark rate to 4.5%, when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announces the outcome of its May policy meeting at 12 p.m. (1100 GMT). Markets' main focus will be any signals from the BoE about the likelihood of further rises in the months ahead. "We expect that the Bank will only start to reduce rates from 2024 Q2 given resilient growth momentum," Goldman Sachs economist James Moberly told clients this week. "We have to be very alert to any signs of persistent inflationary pressures," Bailey said on March 27, before the latest round of data showed inflation fell less than expected. Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both raised their benchmark borrowing rates by 25 basis points.

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