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☆ Bank Indonesia to maintain key rate at 6.00% until at least mid-2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Susobhan Sarkar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Bank Indonesia (BI) will leave its key policy rate unchanged at 6.00% on Thursday and likely keep it at that level until at least mid-2024, according to a Reuters poll of economists in which a few respondents still expected another rate hike. "Bank Indonesia is likely to keep rates unchanged this month. In a Nov. 14-20 Reuters poll, a strong majority of economists, 27 of 31, expected Indonesia's central bank to keep its benchmark key interest rate (IDCBRR=ECI) unchanged at 6.00% on Thursday. While 12 of 28 put the key rate at 6.00% at the end of June, five had a 6.25% forecast and three had 6.50%. "Our base case is for the first BI rate cut in Q3 2024 ...

Persons: Radhika Rao, Brian Lee Shun Rong, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Milounee Purohit, Paul Simao Organizations: Bank Indonesia, Bank, greenback, U.S . Federal, U.S ., DBS, Reuters, Maybank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Asia's, Bank Indonesia

☆ India's festival season to bring some cheer to economy, say economists
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nearly 75% of economists, 25 of 33, said spending during this year's festival season, which lasts from October through December, will be higher compared to last year. Among those, 21 said slightly higher and four said significantly higher. "From a year-on-year growth rate perspective, it may not be a substantial upside so to speak." Economists generally agree India needs an even higher growth rate to generate enough jobs for millions of young people who enter the workforce every year. When asked what was India's potential economic growth rate over the next 2-3 years, economists returned a median range of 6.0%-7.0%.

Persons: Anushree, Dhiraj Nim, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Reserve Bank of, ANZ Research, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Delhi, India, Reserve Bank of India

☆ BoC likely done raising rates, to cut by mid-2024 say economists: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The risk of a revival in inflation, last measured at 3.8%, has led most to forecast now is not the time for the central bank to strongly signal they are done raising rates. Twenty-nine of 32 economists polled Oct. 13-20 expect no change to the central bank's 5.00% overnight rate (CABOCR=ECI), with the remaining three expecting a 25 basis point hike. While most are confident the central bank is done hiking, a significant minority of economists who answered an additional question, 8 of 18, said the risk of the BoC raising rates at least once more is "high". Still, a two-thirds majority, 20 of 30, see the BoC cutting its overnight rate at least once before end-June 2024. The distribution of where economists saw the overnight rate by end-June was split many ways.

Persons: Randall Bartlett, underscoring, Tony Stillo, Milounee Purohit, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of Canada, BoC, Desjardins, U.S . Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Canada

☆ Indian inflation seen easing to 5.50% in Sept on softening food price rises: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Rises in food prices, which make up about half the consumer price index (CPI), continue to cool from recent peaks after the Indian government enacted a series of measures to boost supply. "Having said that, the persistent part of the food inflation problem remains there, which is cereals, pulses and spices, and I think the RBI can't do much about it anyway." Rising crude oil prices are also likely to keep inflation elevated in the world's third-largest oil importer. Oil prices rose around 3% on Monday to trade around $90 a barrel. "Oil prices ... are likely to remain high over the remainder of the year on global supply concerns," said Alexandra Hermann at Oxford Economics.

Persons: Amit Dave, Dhiraj Nim, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of India's, CPI, ANZ Research, Oxford, Inflation, Thomson Locations: Ahmedabad, India, BENGALURU

☆ India to hold top spot for economic growth but risks to downside remain: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

After a stellar 7.8% expansion last quarter, economic growth was expected to moderate to 6.4% this quarter and then drop to 6.0% in the October-December period before slowing to 5.5% in early 2024. "A lot of the drivers that drove the really strong growth from the middle of 2021 to last year have been exhausted. A weak external backdrop is weighing on Indian economic growth as well as sluggish private consumption and sluggish investment." A majority of economists, 22 of 36, who answered an additional question said the risks to their FY 2023/2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside. Government measures should cool food prices in the coming months, but rising oil prices will likely place upward pressure on headline inflation."

Persons: Narendra Modi's, we're, Miguel Chanco, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Sujith Pai, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jonathan Cable, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Pantheon, Reserve Bank of India, That's, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Asia

That has put pressure on risky EM currencies, echoing the dynamics observed last year when the Fed began raising rates. In the Sept. 1-6 poll, almost all beaten-down emerging market currencies were forecast to move little, or trade modestly higher against the dollar in a year, with some making small gains in three months. The underperformance of China has probably been the biggest story holding back EM currencies." Earlier this year, many analysts expected China's reopening to boost the yuan and other EM currencies, especially those exporting commodities to the world's second-largest economy, but this scenario did not unfold as anticipated. Through the end of this year, we believe most EM Asia currencies can weaken," said Nick Bennenbroek, international economist at Wells Fargo.

Persons: Chris Turner, Nick Bennenbroek, Hugo Pienaar, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Jonathan Cable, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Treasury, greenback, Fed, ING, Reserve Bank of India, Korean, Bureau for Economic Research, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, JOHANNESBURG, China, Asia, Wells Fargo, Russian, South Africa, Bengaluru

A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. Interest rate futures are pricing in no change next week, but are nearly split over whether rates rise once more. In the latest poll, eight of 34 economists expect one more rate rise to 5.25% by the end of this year, compared with only one in a July poll. "We expect the Bank will hold the overnight rate steady at 5.00% through mid-2024 as the full impact of past rate hikes helps push the economy into a moderate recession. A scenario in which Canadian interest rates stay higher for longer could increase pressure on highly-indebted households, with almost 20% of Canadian mortgages due for renewal next year.

Persons: Chris Wattie, Claire Fan, Tony Stillo, We're, Sal Guatieri, BMO's Guatieri, Milounee Purohit, Prerana Bhat, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: Bank of Canada, REUTERS, BoC, Canada, RBC, Oxford Economics, U.S . Federal, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, Canadian

Men watch a screen displaying the Sensex results on the facade of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai, February 1, 2023. REUTERS/Niharika Kulkarni/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummary poll dataBENGALURU, Aug 23 (Reuters) - India stocks will trade only modestly higher at year-end, according to a Reuters poll of equity analysts who said a correction was likely before then, citing tightening global financial conditions as a risk. Driven by positive foreign and domestic investment inflows, the benchmark BSE Sensex Index (.BSESN) touched an all-time high of 67,619.2 on July 20, up around 18% from the year's low of 57,084.9 set only four months earlier. Over 70% of analysts who answered an additional question, 21 of 29, said a correction - a decline of 10% or more - in the Indian equity market was likely by year-end, including five who said it was highly likely. (Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Devayani Sathyan and Sujith Pai; Polling by Milounee Purohit, Veronica Khongwir and Anant Chandak; Editing by Jonathan Cable and Bernadette BaumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Niharika Kulkarni, Rajat Agarwal, Devayani Sathyan, Sujith Pai, Milounee Purohit, Veronica Khongwir, Anant Chandak, Jonathan Cable, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Bombay Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Monday's, Asia, U.S

☆ India July inflation likely breached RBI's 6% upper tolerance level - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

That will hit the vast majority of India's population who make up the poor and middle classes. The Aug. 3-8 Reuters poll of 53 economists predicted the consumer price index (CPI) (INCPIY=ECI) rose at an annual rate of 6.40% in July. "There are no signs of any sequential moderation in food prices in August," noted Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays. If the poll median is correct, the current surge in inflation was likely to outstrip the 5.2% the RBI projects for this quarter. The survey also showed wholesale price inflation (INWPI=ECI), the change in producer prices, likely fell 2.70% year-on-year in July, after a 4.12% decline in June.

Persons: Rahul Bajoria, Kunal Kundu, Milounee Purohit, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Reserve Bank of India's, Barclays, Societe Generale, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India

BENGALURU, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hold its key interest rate at 6.50% through end-March 2024, according to a Reuters poll of economists, who pushed back their expectations for the first rate cut to the second quarter of 2024 from the first quarter in a June survey. Few are forecasting a plunge in coming months, offering little reason for the RBI to change policy now. Indeed, inflation is expected to average above 5% this fiscal year, which ends on March 31, 2024, above the RBI's 4% medium-term target. In a June survey, economists predicted the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points by end-March 2024 and another 25 basis points in the April-June quarter. Among those who offered forecasts until March 2024, a slim majority, 32 of 62, expected rates to hold at 6.50%, while 20 saw a cut to 6.25%, and 10 said 6.00% or lower.

Persons: Suman Chowdhuri, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

☆ India's economy to hold top spot for GDP but not so much for jobs growth: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The world's most populous country aspires to leapfrog to the status of a developed nation, riding on the unprecedented demographic dividend, which demands an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of around 8% for the next 25 years. It was forecast to grow 6.5% next fiscal year, with expectations of 6.2% growth this quarter, followed by 6.0% and 5.5%. "I think 6.0% to 6.5% is a very achievable and a very conservative forecast for India's growth trajectory," Nim added. The remaining six said the PLI scheme, which allocated billions of rupees as incentives from the Union budget in 2023-24, will have no impact. While India has a lot more ground to cover to replace China as the world's manufacturing hub, some economists acknowledged the PLI scheme was a step in the right direction.

Persons: Dhiraj Nim, Nim, Ajay Banga, Radhika Piplani, PLI, Piplani, Suman Chowdhury, Milounee Purohit, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, David Holmes Organizations: ANZ Research, World, Capital Advisors, Union, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, People's Republic, India

☆ Bank of Canada to raise rates 25 basis points on July 12, possibly the last
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

So the BoC will press ahead and hike the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on July 12, according to 20 of 24 economists in the June 28-July 6 Reuters poll. That would amount to 475 basis points in total since March 2022, taking the overnight rate to a new 22-year high. Inflation is not expected to fall to the central bank's 2% target at least until 2025, according to the poll. The central bank was predicted to keep rates on hold at 5.00% until Q2 2024, said a majority of economists. Rates staying high for longer is expected to boost the Canadian dollar, one of the best performers among G10 currencies this year.

Persons: Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, Claire Fan, Kit Juckes, Milounee Purohit, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Ross Finley, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Bank of Canada, Reuters, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Gross, RBC Economics, Canadian, U.S, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

☆ BoC to raise rates once more by 25 bps in July to 5.00% - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, June 13 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again in July to 5.00% after a surprise 25 basis point increase last week, according to economists polled by Reuters, who unanimously said the main risk was the central bank might have to do more. The BoC will hike its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% at next month's meeting, according to 20 of 25 economists in a snap June 8-13 Reuters poll. "When you resume hiking, you don't resume for one 25 basis point hike. All but three of 25 economists forecast the overnight rate to peak at 5.00% or higher, 50 basis points more than was predicted in the last survey published on June 2. Only one of 25 economists expected a rate cut this year, compared with five in the last poll.

Persons: underscoring, Sebastien Lavoie, Lavoie, Doug Porter, Milounee Purohit, Sarupya Ganguly, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Bank of Canada, Reuters, BoC, Laurentian Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

☆ ECB to hike rates in June and July to break sticky inflation - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Price pressures and inflation expectations have moderated, but not by enough to deter the ECB from continuing its most aggressive tightening cycle on record. The ECB slowed the pace of its rate rises to 25 basis points at its May meeting after a flurry of 75 and 50 basis point moves. About three-quarters of economists, 43 of 59, forecast another 25 basis point rate hike in July, a stance hardly changed from a May poll. "A 25 basis point rate hike looks like a done deal for next week's meeting," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. "The ECB might not be convinced by the September meeting inflation is declining sufficiently to pause," he said.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Price, Christine Lagarde, Carsten Brzeski, Mark Wall, Prerana Bhat, Milounee Purohit, Ross Finley, Jonathan Cable, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, ING, U.S . Federal, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Germany, Europe

The outlook was little changed for Britain and in India where prices have kept rising. Adam Challis, executive director of research and strategy for EMEA at JLL, said strong wage gains over the past year had kept many housing markets resilient despite significantly higher borrowing costs. Peak-to-trough falls for nearly all housing markets surveyed were downgraded from the March poll. British and U.S. house prices were expected to fall around 3% and Australia's to be flat for the full year 2023. Average house prices are expected to rise about 6% in India.

Persons: Mike Blake, Goldman Sachs, Adam Challis, hasn't, Hari Kishan, Prerana Bhat, Jonathan Cable, Anant Chandak, Sarupya Ganguly, Indradip Ghosh, Vivek Mishra, Milounee, Susobhan Sarkar, Devayani, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Ed Osmond Organizations: KB, REUTERS, EMEA, Thomson Locations: Valley Center , California, U.S, BENGALURU, Canada, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, Britain, India, JLL

Nearly 90% - 94 of 105 - of the economists who participated in the latest Reuters poll, predicted the U.S. central bank would hike its key policy rate by 25 basis points to the 5.00%-5.25% range at a May 2-3 meeting, in line with market pricing. Beyond that, 59 of 100 economists expected the Fed to keep its policy rate unchanged through at least this year. Only 26 respondents with an end-2023 view forecast a cut, similar to market expectations. "We maintain the first rate cut in March 2024. In an exclusive interview with Reuters this week, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for a much higher peak policy rate than currently expected, as inflation remains stubbornly high.

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Predicted drops in house prices in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany, Australia and New Zealand will come off price surges of as much as 50% since the start of the pandemic in 2020. House prices in Canada and New Zealand, which began to fall last year, were forecast to register a peak-to-trough drop of at least 20%, the poll showed. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsDouble-digit falls from recent peaks were also predicted for Australia (16.0%), Germany (11.5%) and the U.S. (10.0%). Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAmong the most commonly cited reasons for house prices to remain elevated were crimped supply, made worse during the pandemic, when construction activity came to a near-halt, and ever-rising demand. While India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates, home prices in Dubai were also predicted to rise steadily.

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Bank of Canada to hold rates steady at 4.50% through this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

All 32 economists polled Feb. 24 to March 3 expect the BoC to hold its overnight rate at 4.50% on March 8. A majority forecast the BoC to keep it there for the rest of 2023, despite several more rate hikes expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve. In the meantime, Canada inflation data are headed in the right direction. "Well, the interesting thing could be in the tone of the statement," said Brown, who expects a hawkish tone. "The Federal Reserve's continued rate hikes will eventually make their way into Canadian inflation through exchange rates...so that will certainly push the Bank of Canada to do more," said Shelly Kaushik, an economist at BMO Capital Markets.

☆ Toronto stocks seen up 6.2% by year-end, despite 'wall of worry'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Equity markets have exhibited remarkable resilience, climbing a wall of worry toward higher common stock prices," said Brandon Michael, senior investment analyst at ABC Funds. "The main drivers toward higher stock prices include decelerating inflation, central banks easing up on their monetary policy tightening efforts, and improving investor risk appetite." Canada's annual rate of inflation cooled to 5.9% in January after peaking at 8.1% in June, data on Tuesday showed. The energy and materials sectors combined account for about 30% of the Toronto market's weighting. (Other stories from the Reuters Q1 global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Fergal Smith; additional polling by Aditi Verma, Milounee Purohit and Mumal Rathore; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ S&P 500 index seen climbing 5% by end of 2023: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 was expected to end 2023 at 4,200 points, which would amount to a 9.4% increase for the calendar year, according to the median forecast of 42 strategists polled by Reuters. After falling 19.4% in 2022, the S&P 500 index is up 4.1% for the year so far. S&P valuations have fallen but still above 20-year averageAs of Feb. 17, Wall Street's expectation for S&P earnings growth for 2023 has fallen to 1.6% from an expected 4.4% on Jan. 1, according to Refinitiv. But while Sandven's year-end S&P 500 target doesn't depend on interest rate cuts he said "it does depend on moderating inflation and improved earnings visibility". Strategists had expected the Dow to end 2023 at 36,500, according to a November poll.

☆ S&P 500 index seen climbing 5% by end of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Japan's Nikkei seen hitting 30,000 by end of 2023 on economic recovery: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Junko Fujita | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Japanese companies will issue their outlook for 2023 by May, which will be based on the current macro environment. So the forecast will be conservative," said Hikaru Yasuda, chief equity strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities. "But as the environment is not as bad as companies (now) expect, they will slowly raise their forecast towards the end of the year." "Companies whose businesses are linked with China are expected to perform well," said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist and fund manager, T&D Asset Management. "Japanese equities are undervalued due to caution for the currency movement," said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities.

☆ Fed to deliver two 25-basis-point hikes in Q1, followed by long pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fed officials broadly agree the U.S. central bank should slow the pace of tightening to assess the impact of the rate hikes. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 425 basis points last year, with the bulk of the tightening coming in 75- and 50-basis-point moves. If realized, that would take the policy rate - the federal funds rate - to the 4.50%-4.75% range. The fed funds rate was expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% in March, according to 61 of 90 economists. Reuters Poll- U.S. Federal Reserve outlookIn the meantime, the Fed is more likely to help push the economy into a recession than not.

Among the nine housing markets surveyed, prices in six were expected to drop next year. Cost of living increases will also reduce demand as some consumers delay home purchases," noted analysts at Fitch Ratings, adding there was "significant uncertainty" around how much house prices would fall. An overwhelming majority of analysts polled by Reuters in the past weeks said house prices need to fall more than they currently expected in order to make them affordable. Already falling sharply, Australia and New Zealand housing prices were likely to fall further next year, by around 16%-18% from their peaks. The last time house prices fell sharply was during the global financial crisis almost 15 years ago, but with most major economies forecast to enter only a shallow recession, a similar crash was unlikely.

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