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Market volatility (bottom half) spiked during the downturn but has steadily receded during the rebound despite a late-summer hiccup. Tim Hayes, Ned Davis ResearchHayes believes that a healthy reset shook out much of that euphoria without leaving lasting damage. History says this market rally has plenty of room to runThe final three months of the year have historically been the friendliest to stocks, Hayes said. Tim Hayes, Ned Davis Research"It doesn't follow the script precisely," Hayes said. The forthcoming market rally should broaden out, the strategist said, which should boost parts of the market that haven't participated as well, including economically sensitive small companies and sectors.
Persons: Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, who's, Ned Davis Research Hayes, " Hayes, Hayes, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson's, David Lundgren, they've, There's, He's, haven't, they're Organizations: Ned, Ned Davis Research, Technology Locations: China, United Kingdom, Canada, Japan
A strange year: Halfway through, there is a wide difference of opinion on earnings Strategists analyze the macroeconomy to come up with an estimate for corporate earnings. They analyze individual company performance to come up with earnings estimates, which are then aggregated into an overall estimate by agencies like FactSet or Refinitiv. The S & P 500 reported $218 in earnings in 2022, according to Refinitiv. This highlights the difference between analysts and strategists: Analysts have models for earnings of individual companies, not the macroeconomy as strategists do. However, in this case, their reticence to slash earnings estimates in expectation of an imminent recession or a banking crisis has proved to be correct.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Mike Wilson's, John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer, David Kostin, Brian Belski, Jonathan Golub, Lori Calvasina, Savita Subramanian, Chris Harvey, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Hatzius Organizations: Here's, BMO, Credit, RBC, Wells, Bloomberg, Bank Locations: U.S
Hedge fund manager Dan Niles has revealed his outlook for the S & P 500 after the Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive time. The S & P 500 hit an all-time high of 4,797 in January this year and has fallen by more than 20% since then. "Our single point target is 3,000 on the S & P," he said, echoing Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson's call earlier this year. Niles also warned that bear market rallies are also likely to occur as the S & P 500 falls to 3,600. The hedge fund manager had a stark, yet straightforward, message for investors: "There is nothing that is safe.
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