If there is a recession in the United States this year, it probably won’t be because consumers spontaneously run out of spending power. I’ve put together five charts that show that consumers are in reasonably good shape, although life is getting harder for the most vulnerable groups. Households aren’t “the place to look for economic weakness,” Michael Pearce, the deputy chief U.S. economist for Oxford Economics, a forecaster, told me last week. The personal saving rate fell in December to 3.7 percent of disposable personal income, which except for a dip in 2022 was the lowest since 2008. “In 2023 consumers were still on average somewhat better off financially than they were in 2019, but the trend is negative,” the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau wrote in a December report.

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Persons: I’ve, ” Michael Pearce, “, Mike Croxson Organizations: Oxford Economics, Consumer Financial, Bureau, National Foundation, Credit Locations: United States