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Dollar pulls ahead as markets focus on Trump policies, Fed outlook
  + stars: | 2024-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
After stalling for three sessions, the greenback was back on the march higher, with investors lifting the dollar index measure against its key rivals closer to a one-year high of 107.07 hit last week. The dollar has rallied more than 2% since the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election on bets Trump's policies could reignite inflation and temper the Fed's future rate cuts. The dollar index held steady at 106.56, up from a one-week nadir hit in the previous session. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict is heating up, which is further denting sentiment towards the euro alongside the prospects of trade tariffs," another "bullish cue" for the dollar index given the euro's heavy weighting, City Index's Simpson said. The dollar gave up some gains against the yen, down 0.33% at 154.91 yen , although the Japanese currency remained under pressure.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Matt Simpson, CME's, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Index's Simpson, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling, bitcoin, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Storm, ATACMS, Bank of Japan, Bank of England's Locations: Europe, China, Russia, Ukraine, Paris
AdvertisementTraders see a 45% chance the Fed pauses rate cuts in December, up from 17% last week. The rising odds come as markets digest a win for Trump, whose policies could complicate the Fed's plans. After two consecutive interest rate cuts, markets think the Federal Reserve might be ready to hit pause. AdvertisementThe rising odds come as markets continue to digest a win for Donald Trump, and as Fed officials have sounded cautious on the path of future policy easing in recent remarks. AdvertisementThe rising odds of a pause also come as Fed speakers this week have struck a cautious tone.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, David Kelly, Jerome Powell, he'd, Trump, JPMorgan's Kelly, They're, Kelly, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Cook, Powell Organizations: Trump, Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Federal, University of Virginia Locations: West Palm Beach , Florida, Charlottesville, Dallas
Traders work on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) floor on November 12, 2024 in New York City. Stock futures hovered near the flatline on Tuesday evening, as investors looked toward a key earnings report from tech giant Nvidia. S&P 500 futures were little changed, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched higher by less than 0.07%. The jump in Nvidia shares helped lift the Nasdaq Composite to a 1% gain and the S&P 500 to a 0.4% advance. The separation is expected to take roughly a year, and the news was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Persons: Nvidia's, Jensen Huang, Lori Calvasina, CNBC's Julia Boorstin, Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman, Susan Collins Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Nvidia, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia's Blackwell, RBC, Markets, Comcast, MSNBC, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve, Boston Locations: New York City
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
watch nowThe Federal Reserve approved its second consecutive interest rate cut Thursday, moving at a less aggressive pace than before but continuing its efforts to rightsize monetary policy. Among them was an altered view in how it assesses the effort to bring down inflation while supporting the labor market. The statement slightly downgraded the labor market, saying "conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low." Generally, the labor market has held up well. An acceleration in economic activity under Trump could persuade the Fed to cut rates less, depending on how inflation reacts.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell, nonfarm, Donald Trump, Trump, Powell, Pace Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, Gross, Atlanta Fed, Trump Locations: Tuesday's
"A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization." Since the meeting, economic indicators have showed that the labor market is perhaps stronger than officials favoring the 50 basis point move had expected. The minutes noted that the vote to approve the 50 basis point cut came "in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks" against the labor market. Though the document was more detailed about the debate over whether to approve the 25 basis point cut, there was not as much information about why voters supported the larger move. Since the Fed meeting, both the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields have surged about 40 basis points.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Market, Treasury Locations: WASHINGTON
U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher early Monday as investors assessed future moves from the Federal Reserve following Friday's bumper jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield was up by under a basis point at 3.984%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was over 3 basis points higher at 3.968%. One basis point equals 0.01%. Treasury yields jumped on Friday as investors digested a better-than-expected September jobs report. The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that traders are now pricing in an 91% chance of a quarter percentage point rate cut at the central bank's next meeting in November.
Persons: Nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Alberto Musalem Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Investors Locations: Israel
“Did the Fed even need to cut rates in September, let alone cut by 50bps (basis points)?” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in a note on Friday. Second-guessing the Fed isn’t new, of course. Central bank officials themselves note the uncertainty inherent in their work, especially when the economy reaches inflection points. Even Fed officials don’t always agree with the central bank’s actions, such as Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, the lone dissenter to the Fed’s decision to cut rates by half a point in September. ‘This isn’t exact science’Fed officials aren’t shy about admitting that they don’t always have confidence in how the US economy will evolve.
Persons: Washington CNN —, Jerome Powell, Philipp Carlsson, Seema Shah, James Knightley, Powell, don’t, Michelle Bowman, wouldn’t, , ” Carlsson, Szlezak, , ” Gina Bolvin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting, Asset Management, ING, Bolvin Wealth Management Locations: Wall, Washington
Housing is one of many issues Vance, the Republican nominee, believes are rooted in the arrival of undocumented migrants in America. But many economists caution that connecting rising numbers of immigrants to housing costs is no simple thing. Other economists have noted links between immigrants and increased housing costs. Vance later shared two studies on housing and immigration that showed a link between increased immigration and rising housing costs — though each offered various caveats, including noting that the impact changes over time. Indeed, Zillow data shows a clear upward trend in Springfield rents this year compared with 2023.
Persons: America’s, Sen, JD Vance, Tim Walz, Vance, you’ve, ” Vance, Donald Trump, Walz, , ” Walz, Kamala Harris, Ernie Tedeschi, Joe Biden, Vance’s, Michelle Bowman, Chris Herbert, Herbert, Sharon Cornelissen, Bryan Heck, Democratic Sen, Sherrod Brown, Heck, ” Heck Organizations: Minnesota Gov, Republican, CBS, Democratic, NBC, White House, Federal, Cato Institute, Harvard University’s, for Housing Studies, Consumer Federation of America, NBC Boston Locations: Ohio, America, Springfield , Ohio, U.S, New York City, Los Angeles, Dearborn, Hamtramck, Detroit, Brockton , Massachusetts, Haiti, Cape Verde, Central, South America, Springfield, Washington
Gold pulls back but dovish Fed sets it for best quarter since 2016
  + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, January 31, 2023. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,653.38 per ounce, as of 0404 GMT, owing to a rise in the U.S. dollar . A stronger dollar makes gold less attractive for other currency holders. Bullion has risen slightly over 14% so far this quarter, its best since January 2016. This boosted expectations of an another outsized interest rate cut at the Fed's November policy meeting.
Persons: Tim Waterer, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Waterer Organizations: U.S ., Federal, KCM, U.S, Sunday Locations: Siberian, Krasnoyarsk, Russia, U.S, Israel, Yemen, Lebanon
Dollar firm following sharp rebound as Fed speakers eyed
  + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Earlier this week, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said policymakers "can't be behind the curve" if the economy is to have a soft landing. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the central bank needn't go on a "mad dash" to lower rates. Later Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives pre-recorded remarks at a conference in New York, where New York Fed President John Williams also speaks. Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook take to the podium at various other venues as well. Minutes from the Bank of Japan's July meeting, when the central bank raised short-term interest rates, showed policymakers were divided on how quickly the central bank should raise interest rates further.
Persons: Adriana Kugler, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, I'm, it's, Kenneth Crompton, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Susan Collins, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, NAB's Crompton, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed, National Australia Bank, New York Fed, Boston, Weekly U.S, Traders, Bank of Japan's, Swiss Locations: New York
Gold touches record high on rate-cut bets, weaker U.S. dollar
  + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars sit in a vault at the Perth Mint Refinery, operated by Gold Corp, in Perth, Australia, on August 9, 2018. Gold hit a record high on Wednesday, boosted by a softer U.S. dollar and hopes of more interest rate cuts, while investors looked for new signals for the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. Spot gold was steady at $2,658.08 per ounce, as of 0557 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $2,670.43 earlier. On Tuesday, China announced a slew of support measures including outsized rate cuts, after the U.S. Fed cut rates by 50 basis points last week. Inflows to gold exchange-traded funds, particularly from Western investors, will rise in the coming months, providing further support for record-high bullion prices, analysts said.
Persons: Gold, Kelvin Wong, OANDA's, Wong, Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell's, heightening Organizations: Perth Mint Refinery, Gold Corp, U.S, Fed, Asia Pacific, Traders Locations: Perth, Australia, China, Beirut
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she thought her colleagues should have taken a more measured approach to last week’s half percentage point interest rate cut as she worries that inflation could reignite. In explaining her rationale, Bowman said the half percentage point, or 50 basis point, reduction posed a number of risks to the Fed’s twin goals of achieving low inflation and full employment. Though Bowman favored a reduction, she preferred the Fed lower by a quarter percentage point, more in line with the traditional moves at the central bank. In recent statements, Fed officials have cited easing inflation and a softening labor market as justification for the cut. At last week’s meeting, individual policymakers indicated they expect another half percentage point in cuts this year and another full point in 2025.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Organizations: Federal Locations: Kentucky
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was more than 4 basis points higher at 3.789%, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to trade at 3.597%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Tuesday as market participants awaited fresh economic data and further comments from Federal Reserve officials. The 10-year Treasury yield ended last week almost 8 basis points higher after the U.S. central bank lowered interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday. "I think after 50 basis points, we're still in a net tight position," Kashkari said in a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview. On the data front, consumer confidence data for September and Richmond Fed surveys for September are both scheduled to be released at 10 a.m.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, we're, Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Adriana Kugler, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Jenni Reid Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis Federal, CNBC, Fed, Richmond Fed Locations: U.S, Minneapolis
The stock market runs a bigger risk of an unsustainable melt-up, according to Ed Yardeni. AdvertisementStocks run the risk of seeing an unsustainable, dot-com style melt-up, thanks to the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. That move sparked a rally in stocks to fresh records —but it's also raised the odds of a stock market melt-up, he said, meaning investors are now facing the risk of an unsustainable market boom. And while inflation has cooled from its highs several years ago, it is still a risk, Yardeni noted. Advertisement"If they get to overheat the economy and get to create a bubble in the stock market, yeah they're creating some issues," Yardeni added.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, , Stocks, it's, Yardeni, Michelle Bowman, haven't Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Yardeni, Labor Department, Atlanta Fed
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she thought her colleagues should have taken a more measured approach to last week's half percentage point interest rate cut as she worries that inflation could reignite. In explaining her rationale, Bowman said the half percentage point, or 50 basis point, reduction posed a number of risks to the Fed's twin goals of achieving low inflation and full employment. Though Bowman favored a reduction, she preferred the Fed lower by a quarter percentage point, more in line with the traditional moves at the central bank. In recent statements, Fed officials have cited easing inflation and a softening labor market as justification for the cut. At last week's meeting, individual policymakers indicated they expect another half percentage point in cuts this year and another full point in 2025.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman Organizations: Federal Locations: Kentucky
Investors are parsing through data and Fed commentary to determine future rate cuts. On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman explained why she dissented against a deep cut in September. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! Both indexes closed at all-time highs on Monday amid rising outlooks that the Federal Reserve will deliver another half-point interest rate cut in November. To better understand where monetary policy may be headed after the Fed's first rate cut in four years, investors are tuning into Fed commentary and parsing through incoming data.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, , dovish, Michelle Bowman's, Bowman Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Fed, Richmond, Here's Locations: Kentucky
New York CNN —So we finally got a rate cut — and a supersized one at that. However, a recession started immediately when the Fed cut rates in July 1990 and just two months after it cut in January 2001. Unemployment rate: generally risesOn average, for those six cycles, the unemployment rate rose by 1.4 percentage points a year after the Fed cut rates. For instance, a year after the Fed cut rates in July 1995, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%. In the other four instances, the unemployment rate was at least a percentage point higher a year after the Fed cut rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, it’s, Michelle Bowman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Fed, Consumer Locations: New York, stoke
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday he supported a half percentage point rate cut at this week's meeting because inflation is falling even faster than he had expected. A week before the Fed meeting, markets were overwhelmingly pricing in a 25 basis point cut. Along with the decision, individual officials signaled the likelihood of another half point in cuts this year, followed by a full percentage point of reductions in 2025. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman was the only Federal Open Market Committee member to vote against the reduction, instead preferring a smaller quarter percentage point cut. "I was a big advocate of large rate hikes when inflation was moving much, much faster than any of us expected," he said.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Fed, Market, Commerce Department
In a historic dissent, Michelle Bowman, a Fed governor, advocated instead for a smaller 25 basis point cut. AdvertisementLeading up to the rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly emphasized the Fed's goals of maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate. Bowman said she believes inflation could come closer to the Fed's target with more gradual easing, which would avoid a spike in demand from lower borrowing costs. AdvertisementBowman has long advocated for tighter monetary policy to rein in inflation, skewing hawkish among the Fed's members. "We should keep in mind the historical lessons and risks associated with prematurely declaring victory in the fight against inflation," Bowman said in a speech last year.
Persons: , Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Fed, Business, New York Fed
But Wall Street was mostly clueless this week when it came to predicting how big a rate cut the Fed would deliver on Wednesday. The jumbo half-point cut the Fed ultimately rolled out was not at all what traders expected a week ago. Powell: Fed officials ‘left the size of the rate cut open’ ahead of September meetingIn a closely watched speech at the Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last month, Powell declared “the time has come” to cut interest rates. That data was apparently enough to spur some Fed officials to reconsider their position. “But we do not expect Fed officials to be intentionally opaque,” said Husby.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, , , Price, Christopher Waller, , Powell’s, Thomas Simons, ” Simons, Michelle Bowman, “ We’re, Andrew Husby, Waller, there’s Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, Fed, PPI, CNBC, Jefferies, BNP Locations: New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
(This is a wrap-up of the key money moving discussions on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" exclusive for Pro subscribers. Worldwide Exchange airs at 5 a.m. Worldwide Exchange Word of the Day: "Dissent" Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets said he's paying close attention to Fed Governor Michelle Bowman becoming the first dissenting Fed Governor since 2005. "I think this is the return of the cyclical trade," said Shah on Worldwide Exchange. Worldwide Exchange Pick: FedEx and Transports FedEx reports after the bell Thursday.
Persons: Jay Woods, Michelle Bowman, Seema Shah, Woods Organizations: Pro, Worldwide, Federal Reserve, Freedom Capital Markets, Management, FedEx, Transports FedEx, Dow
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee announced an interest-rate cut of 50 basis points, the first cut Americans have received in over four years. AdvertisementHe's argued in the past that the Fed would only cut rates close to the election to aid Democrats, which he reiterated leading up to the central bank's announcement. Trump sought to use his presidential power to appoint members to the Fed board who supported his unorthodox views of the central bank. Trump has flip-flopped his views on his most important appointment to the Fed: Powell. Trump's tepid support of Powell underlines just how mercurial he can be when it comes to the central bank.
Persons: , Donald Trump isn't, Jerome Powell, Trump, they're, He's, Powell, Judy Shelton, Shelton, Sen, Susan Collins, Herman Cain, Stephen Moore, Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, he's, reappoint Powell, Trump hasn't Organizations: Service, Federal, Market Committee, Democratic, Business, Federal Reserve, Street, Trump, Bloomberg, Fox, Fed, Governors, Maine Republican, Fed Board, Bloomberg News Locations: New York, Michigan, Maine
The Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points garnered support from 11 of 12 voting members. Fed governor Michelle Bowman dissented, marking the first split by a central bank governor since 2005. Bowman advocated for a smaller, 25 basis point cut. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman dissented, advocating for a smaller, 25 basis point cut as the committee opted for a large, 50 basis point cut. Bowman's dissent marks the first time a central bank governor has strayed from consensus on an interest rate decision since 2005.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Organizations: Service, Federal, Business
The matrix of individual officials' expectations pointed to another full percentage point in cuts by the end of 2025 and a half-point in 2026. In all, the dot plot shows the benchmark rate coming down about 2 percentage points beyond Wednesday's move. On core inflation, the committee took down its projection to 2.6%, a 0.2 percentage point reduction from June. In fact, the last time the monthly hiring rate was this low – 3.5% as a share of the labor force – the unemployment rate was above 6%. At his press conference following the July meeting, Powell remarked that a 50 basis point cut was "not something we're thinking about right now."
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Market, Dow Jones, Fed, Gross, Atlanta Fed
Here’s the latest:S&P 500 futures were up slightly after fears of a slowdown in growth and hiring rocked the benchmark index last week. Investors endured both a stomach-churning rout on Monday and a bounce-back rally on Thursday. Despite that, the S&P 500 ended the week down just 0.04 percent. The big event this week is Wednesday’s inflation data. Investors are anxious after tepid jobs and manufacturing data suggested a slowdown was on the horizon.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, ” Brian Moynihan, Wall Organizations: Investors, Nvidia, Fed, Bank of America, CBS Locations: Europe, Asia
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