DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ Opinion | Americans’ Savings Are Shrinking. Should We Be Worried?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

If there is a recession in the United States this year, it probably won’t be because consumers spontaneously run out of spending power. I’ve put together five charts that show that consumers are in reasonably good shape, although life is getting harder for the most vulnerable groups. Households aren’t “the place to look for economic weakness,” Michael Pearce, the deputy chief U.S. economist for Oxford Economics, a forecaster, told me last week. The personal saving rate fell in December to 3.7 percent of disposable personal income, which except for a dip in 2022 was the lowest since 2008. “In 2023 consumers were still on average somewhat better off financially than they were in 2019, but the trend is negative,” the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau wrote in a December report.

Persons: I’ve, ” Michael Pearce, “, Mike Croxson Organizations: Oxford Economics, Consumer Financial, Bureau, National Foundation, Credit Locations: United States

Taken as a whole, the figures the government issued Friday show a still-surprisingly resilient consumer, willing to spend briskly enough to power the economy even in the face of persistent inflation and high interest rates. Income growth slowed. Adjusted for inflation, income actually fell slightly. In Friday’s report on inflation, the government also said that consumer spending last month jumped a robust 0.7%. A solid job market has helped fuel consumer spending, with wages and salaries having outpaced inflation for most of this year.

Persons: ”, Michael Pearce, Friday's, Jerome Powell, — Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Oxford Economics, Fed

As the 10-year Treasury yields regained steam, megacap growth stocks including Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Alphabet (GOOGL.O) shed between 0.4% and 2.2%. Technology (.SPLRCT) led declines amongst major S&P 500 sectors, down 0.7%, while healthcare (.SPXHC) added 0.5%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are on course for their worst monthly performance of the year as Treasury yields hit multi-year highs on uncertainty around interest rates. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.34-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.26-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and eight new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 15 new highs and 88 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, megacaps, Jerome Powell's, Michael Pearce, Pearce, Powell, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Sriraj Kalluvila, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Apple, Microsoft, Technology, Dow Jones, Oxford Economics, Chicago Fed, Traders, Micron Technology, Accenture, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

Student loan repayments restart in October after a three-year suspension during the COVID-19 pandemic. In isolation, none would likely shift policymakers' sense of the short-term risks or change their focus on quelling still-elevated inflation. By Goldman's estimate the economy would still be growing at a 1.3% annual rate at that point. But the amounts they see sliced from GDP are more than the 1% growth rate Fed officials expected the economy to muster as of June, and beyond many private forecasts as well. Some economists say the resumption of student loan repayments for tens of millions of borrowers may already be reshaping behavior.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Vincent Reinhart, Reinhart, Michael Pearce, Ian Shepherdson, Kieran Clancy, They've, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Federal, Republicans, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Mellon, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Congressional, U.S . Department, Education, Thomson

☆ Auto strike could be speed bump for hard-driving US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"While that amount is large in nominal dollar terms, it would not be large enough to tip the economy into recession. In the end, the impact of a such a strike would be modest compared to previous generations," Brusuelas said. Other economists offered comparable estimates of the potential drag from a prolonged strike by the Big Three's full union membership. A full-blown strike "could push U.S. payroll growth temporarily negative," Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote on Wednesday. Pearce also estimated a full strike lasting a month could cut U.S. auto output by nearly a third, much as it did during the 1998 strike.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Detroit's, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Michael Pearce, Pearce, Dan Burns, Deepa Babington Organizations: UAW, General Motors Detroit, Hamtramck, REUTERS, General Motors, Ford, United Auto Workers, RSM, Big, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Labor, payrolls, Thomson Locations: Hamtramck , Michigan, U.S

☆ UAW strike could brake hard-driving US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"UAW on strike" signs lean against a pile of wood on the picket line outside the General Motors Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly in Hamtramck, Michigan, U.S. October 25, 2019. RSM estimates the U.S. economy would suffer a modest 0.2% drag to annualized growth of gross domestic product this quarter should the strike action last for a month, Brusuelas said. Other economists offered comparable estimates of the potential drag from a prolonged strike by the Big Three's full union membership. A full-blown strike "could push U.S. payroll growth temporarily negative," Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote on Wednesday. Pearce also estimated a full strike lasting a month could cut U.S. auto output by nearly a third, much as it did during the 1998 strike.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Detroit's, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Michael Pearce, Pearce, Dan Burns, Deepa Babington, Diane Craft Organizations: UAW, General Motors Detroit, Hamtramck, REUTERS, General Motors, Ford, United Auto Workers, RSM, Big, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Labor, payrolls, Thomson Locations: Hamtramck , Michigan, U.S

Retail sales rose 0.6% in August, compared with a revised 0.5% increase in July, according to a report issued by the Commerce Department on Thursday. The surge in gas prices is coursing through the economy and could slow down shoppers' momentum heading into the critical holiday shopping season. Excluding gas sales, retail sales were just up 0.2% for August, according to the Commerce Department report. Sales at gas stations rose a robust 5.2%, while furniture and home furnishings stores saw a 1% drop in sales. August's uptick in retail sales, which marks the fifth straight monthly gain, reflects the economy’s resiliency despite a still tough economic environment.

Persons: August's, ”, Michael Pearce, “, Anne Hatfield, They’re, Kendra Scott, Chris Rugaber, Anne Organizations: Commerce Department, U.S . Labor Department, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, AAA, Amazon Prime, U.S, Oxford Economics, ”, Walmart, Pride, AP Locations: Washington

☆ "Barbenheimer" makes waves for July's movie spending, but box office recovery still lags
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Amina Niasse | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - "Barbenheimer" - the twin-bill summer box office phenom - sure helped to drive U.S. consumers back to cinemas last month, but movie-going is still struggling to catch up to other recreational spending categories post-pandemic. While that helped long-suffering box office receipts, it made less of a splash for overall consumer spending when compared to larger categories like clothing and household furnishings, economists at Oxford Economics said. It made a big difference in the live-event spending area though, at least for the moment. This summer’s box office has been out of the ordinary with ticket sales for the season up $500 million from last summer’s sales, according to data firm Box Office Mojo. While other categories of live-event spending have fully recovered from the hit delivered by pandemic shutdowns, film attendance outlays remain at roughly 65% of their pre-COVID levels.

Persons: Mike Blake, Oppenheimer, Michael Pearce, Taylor, Amina Niasse, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Warner Bros, Oxford Economics, Graphics, Mojo, Sporting, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Gillette, Billboard, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles , California, U.S, Massachusetts

☆ US small business sentiment slumps to more than 10-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. small business confidence fell to more than a 10-year low in April on worries about the near-term economic outlook and persistent worker shortages, but there were few signs that businesses were having difficulties accessing credit. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index dropped 1.1 points to 89.0 last month, the lowest level since January 2013. "As we've argued before, though, measures of sentiment are often a poor guide of what is likely to happen in the economy because it tells us more about how business owners are feeling, rather than what they are doing." The share of owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months fell two points to a net negative 49%. Forty-five percent of owners reported job openings that they could not fill, up 2 points from March.

☆ US homebuilder sentiment improves further; NY state manufacturing rebounds
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Other data on Monday showed manufacturing activity in New York state increased for the first time in five months. Housing and manufacturing have been hammered by the Federal Reserve's fastest interest rate hiking campaign since the 1980s. The survey's measure of current sales conditions rose two points to 51. The survey's measure of future business conditions rose to 6.6 from 2.9 in March. The capital spending index rose 3.2 points to 16.5, while the technology spending measure fell to 10.3 from 13.3 in March.

☆ US weekly jobless claims post largest rise in 5 months; labor market still tight
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"Even after factoring in the latest increase, jobless claims are exceptionally low by historical standards, underscoring just how tight labor market conditions still are," said Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out weekly fluctuations, climbed 4,000 to 197,000 last week. Claims had stayed below 200,000 for seven straight weeks, indicating that high-profile job cuts in the technology sector had not had a material impact on the labor market. Goldman Sachs believed residual seasonality accounted for about half of last week's rise in claims. The labor market is, however, cooling on the margins.

☆ US labor market stays resilient; Q4 labor costs revised higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Those worries were further heightened by another report from the Labor Department on Thursday showing labor costs grew much faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter. The labor market remains tight despite rising risks of a recession, contributing to keeping inflation elevated via solid wage gains. But even using alternative seasonal adjustments, economists say the labor market still is exhibiting tightness. A second report from the Labor Department showed unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - grew at a 3.2% annualized rate last quarter. Labor costs accelerated at a 6.9% rate in the third quarter, and notched hefty gains in the prior two quarters.

☆ Instant View: Strong Oct US payrolls do not give Fed much scope to relax
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

ROSS MAYFIELD, INVESTMENT STRATEGY ANALYST, BAIRD, LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY"It's just another data point that proves the labor market is too strong to accommodate what the Fed wants. They're looking for a situation where you don't just have unemployment rate coming up a little bit. You may have it coming up a little bit more." "They may also be looking for lighter jobless claims and a little bit less in the way of average hourly earnings growth. This tightness in the labor market is probably reaching its peak.

☆ U.S. jobs picture mixed as Fed policymakers ponder rate-hike pivot
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The United States added 261,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report, well above the 200,000 gain expected by economists in a Reuters poll. "The data are still showing strong positive momentum in the labor market, which is not yet showing much adjustment in response to a rapid tightening of monetary policy. These data will keep the Fed on track to keep raising rates into restrictive territory," said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. Friday's employment report offered some indications of progress, most notably the slowdown of job gains in some sectors. Annual wage growth also appears to have peaked even as average hourly earnings rose more than expected in October on a monthly basis to the highest reading since July.

☆ What to watch for in the Federal Reserve policy announcement
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The supersized hike would bring the central bank’s benchmark lending rate to a new target range of 3.75% to 4%. Here’s what to watch for: According to the CME Fedwatch tool, traders believe there’s nearly a 90% chance of a three-quarter-percentage-point rate hike this month. And through it all, the job market has remained tight. Looking forward: Wednesday’s policy announcement and the press conference that immediately follows will be closely analyzed for any potential forward guidance by the Fed. The much bigger question is around how the Fed signals its future policy path,” wrote Luke Bartholomew, senior economist at abrdn, in a note.

Search resuls for: "Michael Pearce"

15 mentions found