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For some, the answer to exuberant markets lies in the ample cash still sloshing around the financial system. Total global liquidity, a measure of cash and credit in the world economy, has risen to almost $170 trillion in June, Crossborder calculates, from $158 trillion in October. Central banks have added a net $1.7 trillion into money markets since November, it also estimates, a move that correlates with a risk-taking trend. But an alternative scenario is that U.S. money market funds, stuffed with cash after depositors fled regional banks in March, buy enough newly issued Treasuries to keep rates stable. "Liquidity is not a force that reverberates immediately into financial markets," said JPMorgan global market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
Persons: Michael Howell, Crossborder, Richard Clarida, Georgina Taylor, Ken Taubes, reverberates, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Morgan Stanley, Luca Paolini, Paolini, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Crossborder Capital, U.S, Reuters, BNP, JPMorgan, Apple, Thomson Locations: Japan, U.S
And, as it's global liquidity that matters, the bowl is also kept brimming as the Bank of Japan continues to buy government bonds at pace. But a study looking at the U.S. banking shock that led to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month and deposit runs across many regional banks suggests a different angle - a 'deposit glut' from within the richest countries that is increasingly unstable. "In a context of rising wealth inequality and growing corporate savings, an increasing share of bank deposits is uninsured and held by sophisticated agents," Vuillemey wrote. "This implies that these deposits are increasingly fragile, and that deposit insurance schemes ... are slowly losing bite." As illustrated in Technicolor in the SVB run, big uninsured deposits are volatile - sensitive as they are to any hint on the bank's health and moveable at push of a button.
Brendan McDermid | ReutersLONDON — As fundamentals hold up and tight financial conditions weigh on stock markets, corporate debt and gold could be strong investment options in 2023, according to Michael Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital. A slowing economy, tightening financial conditions and rising yields might typically prompt greater stress in the corporate debt markets and a higher rate of delinquencies. So, this time, corporate debt markets are actually in a reasonably good shape, so that is an area that I would suggest is not a bad area for 2023." "The economy didn't turn until the end of 2001...the corporate debt market picked up prior to that, around about Q2, Q3 [second, third quarter] of 2001. "Where you want to be positioned next year is good quality corporate debt and gold."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGood quality corporate debt and gold are where you want to be next year, analyst saysMichael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, says the U.S. Federal Reserve may pivot in liquidity before it does in interest rates.
One key thing is needed for a rally in bitcoin prices, according to Michael Howell from Cross Border Capital: liquidity. "They're completely connected," he said and warned investors that prices will likely fall further in the near term. "We have maximum liquidity tightness right now, and central banks are actually thinking about squeezing even more." Bitcoin rally Howell believes cryptocurrencies are "extremely liquidity sensitive" and might be one of the first indicators of changing conditions in financial markets. He added that as soon as central banks pivot away from monetary tightening, assets — including bitcoin — "will see a very sharp rally.
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