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He said comparisons to the dot-com peak in 2000 are fair. Advertisement"This looks and feels like the year 2000 to me," Arnott told Business Insider on November 11. But Arnott believes AI optimism, which has driven the lion's share of the rally, is already fully priced in. At 37 times earnings, just below the late-2021 peak of 38, before the market fell by 25%, and the 2000 peak of 43, right in front of a 50% loss. "This is a really, really, really pricey environment, but it doesn't necessarily make me bearish.
Persons: Rob Arnott, he's, Arnott, , Donald Trump, Trump, disruptors, There's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, David Einhorn, Einhorn Organizations: Nvidia, Intel, Chief US, Business, Goldman Sachs Bank of America's Global, Equity, Bank of America, CNBC's, Alpha Locations: irrelevance
Bank stocks in particular got a lift amid speculation of increased deal activity. Bank of America Global Investment Strategy, EPFR2. Bank of America Global Investment Strategy, EPFR3. Bank of America Global Investment Strategy, EPFR4. Bank of America Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg5.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Stocks, Michael Hartnett, Gold, Crypto Organizations: Investors, Bank, Bank of America, BofA Global Research, Bank of America Global Investment, Bank of America Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg Locations: outflows
Bank of America's global fund manager survey showed the percentage of portfolio managers who are overweight U.S. stocks soared to 29% — its highest level since August 2013 — from 10% before the U.S. presidential election. Small caps, which stand to benefit greatly from less regulation, reduced taxes and faster economic growth, have outperformed large caps since the election. .SPX DJIA,.IXIC,IWM YTD mountain SPX, Nasdaq, Dow and IWM year to date BofA's chief investment startegist Michael Hartnett noted this trend is likely to continue. "Post-election results show net 35% [of fund managers surveyed] expect small caps to outperform large caps, which would have been the most since Feb'21," he said. This would make it next to impossible for the Federal Reserve to justify lowering interest rates, which could hurt equities — especially small caps.
Persons: , Stocks, Donald Trump, Russell, SPX DJIA, startegist Michael Hartnett Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Atlantic, Nvidia Locations: Nasdaq
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineDespite markets falling Tuesday, there's still plenty to like about their current state. Weighed down by ASML's 16% dive and a report by Bloomberg on potential AI-chip export controls, semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and AMD fell 4.7% and 5.2% respectively. Still, investors are the most bullish in four years, according to the October BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.
Persons: DJI, Spencer Platt, there's, They're, Michael Hartnett, Mary Daly, who's, Dow, Piper, Craig Johnson, , Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Alex Harring Organizations: AMD, New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, ASML's, Bloomberg, Nvidia, Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Survey, U.S . Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Federal Locations: U.S, Beijing
A contrarian sell signal recently flashed in the stock market, according to Bank of America. AdvertisementA sell signal in the stock market just flashed for the first time since February 2021, according to a note from Bank of America. The sell signal has typically preceded weak returns in the short term. The sell signal from Bank of America flashes at a time when stocks are trading near record highs. As to potential risks in the market, investors are most worried about geopolitical conflicts, which rose to 33% from 19% last month.
Persons: BofA, , Michael Hartnett, Jun, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Service Locations: China
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Breather from rally U.S. markets fell Monday, weighed down by a drop in semiconductor stocks and a 8.1% slide in UnitedHealth . Tech stocks fell 6.36%, while telecoms stocks rose 1.97%. Indeed, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who's a member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, noted that the central bank is "a long way from where [rates are] likely to settle."
Persons: ASML, there's, They're, Michael Hartnett, Mary Daly, who's, Dow, Piper, Craig Johnson, , Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Alex Harring Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, UBS, Tech, ASML's, Bloomberg, Nvidia, AMD, Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Survey, U.S . Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Federal Locations: New York City, U.S, Tuesday's, Netherlands, ., Beijing
Chinese stocks are poised for a huge run-up in the next year, according to Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf. Other notable investors have been looking to buy the dip in Chinese stocks amid continued stimulus efforts. Other traders on Wall Street have shown interest in buying the dip in Chinese equities, despite fear that Beijing's economic slowdown could stick around. Other strategists on Wall Street have made bullish calls on Chinese equities in recent weeks, with eyes on continued stimulus measures in Beijing. Goldman Sachs predicted China's stock market could rally another 20%, thanks to "more substantial policy measures" and Chinese stocks being oversold, strategists said in a note.
Persons: Jeff deGraaf, , deGraaf, Beijing didn't, Mario Draghi, Michael Hartnett, Yuan Wei, Yuan, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Macro, CSI, Bloomberg, Beijing, Investors, Bank of America, Investment Fund Management Co Locations: , Beijing, China, Wall, Shenzhen, Hong Kong
For those looking to hedge against geopolitical risk, stocks are actually a pretty good way to do so, along with oil and gold. Bank of America looked at the best performers in the three and six months after major geopolitical events, including the Iraq War and Russia's invasion of Ukraine . The investment bank found that oil has historically been the best performer in the three months following major geopolitical events, generating a median return of 8.3%. On the other hand, gold is the best geopolitical hedge in the six months after such episodes. "[B]ad geopolitical events have not been bearish for risk assets in recent years, arguably the opposite," analyst Michael Hartnett wrote in a Thursday note.
Persons: , They've, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America Locations: Iraq, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, Russia, China, Taiwan
Massive stimulus from central banks in the U.S., China and elsewhere is driving bubble-like stock returns and could head off a global recession, according to Bank of America. "It's the bubble dream," BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in his weekly "Flow Show" breakdown of where investors are putting their money. "Fed slashing, oil crashing, China inflating ... and if this China stimulus don't work then geopolitical risks [are] going to soar." But while some indicators do point to a slowing in global growth, the abundant forecasts for recession have eased. "Fed cutting into recession is negative for risk assets, but Fed cutting with no recession is positive and investors firmly of view Fed + China is sufficient policy easing to short-circuit recession risk," Hartnett wrote.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China, Investors Locations: U.S, China
But that means investors once again exposed to risks of a tech bubble inflating anew. Hartnett says investors should allocate to bonds and gold to hedge bubble risk. But it means investors will have to chase the stock market surge as bubble risks bounce back, he added. AdvertisementHartnett has previously warned of the potential for a tech bubble as investment in AI has soared. Amid further AI investment and easing policy, Hartnett says the best way to position portfolios is with allocations to bonds and gold, which hedge against growth and inflation risks.
Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, , Michael Hartnett Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Nvidia, Broadcom, ASML, Meta, Treasury
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett advises buying gold amid record-high prices. Gold's year-to-date rally of about 20% is outperforming US tech stocks. AdvertisementInvestors should buy gold even as the metal hovers around record-high prices, according to Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett. AdvertisementHartnett noted that gold is the only asset that's outperforming US tech shares. AdvertisementThe juxtaposition of record-high gold prices and negative outflows is "explained only by unprecedented central bank buying," Hartnett said, adding China's central bank was the largest buyer of gold in 2023.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, , haven't Organizations: of America, stoke, Service, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, 2nd
Ninety-three percent of the fund managers in the survey are expecting lower short-term rates in the next 12 months, marking the highest percentage in the past 24 years, BofA said. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 Only 31% of fund managers are overweight stocks now, down from 51% in July, the survey showed. Global growth expectations are at their lowest in 8 months with about half of respondents expecting weaker growth the next 12 months, the survey showed. Still, the majority of investors (76%) expect the Fed to engineer a soft landing, up from 68% last month, the survey said. The August survey from BofA captured the sentiment of 220 respondents with $590 billion in assets under management.
Persons: BofA, Michael Hartnett Organizations: Federal Reserve
In an August 1 note to clients, the bank's top global strategist urged investors to sell stocks when the Federal Reserve issues its first rate cut. Hartnett and his team studied the last 12 rate-cutting cycles going back to 1970 and identified three varieties of rate cuts. Hartnett said surging global central bank rate cuts are signs that the economy is in for a rough stretch. Investors expect the Fed to cut rates for the first time this cycle at its September meeting. "Emergency Fed rate cuts being priced in makes little sense given the economic backdrop in the U.S. and would only serve to destroy policy maker credibility."
Persons: , America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Louis, Jean, Louis Nakamura, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, Hartnett's, Jim Smigiel Organizations: Service, America's, Federal Reserve, Business, Bank of America Bank of America, Bank of America, Louis Fed, Bank of America's, Global, SEI Locations: U.S
AdvertisementSt. Louis FedDespite the Sahm Rule's impressive history, it is sometimes criticized because it fails to account for rising labor participation, which can raise the unemployment rate. In addition to downcast labor market data, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell further into contraction territory this week, signaling that US manufacturing continues to slow. The market's direction also depends on how investors interpret interest rate cuts alongside future data. Fed funds rate futures markets are now pricing in a 50-basis-point cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. AdvertisementHartnett and his team analyzed Fed rate-cutting cycles and identified three different types of rate cuts — cuts into a soft landing, cuts into a hard landing, and panic cuts, which are due to a credit event or some sort of Wall Street crisis.
Persons: , Claudia Sahm —, Louis Fed, Piper Sandler, Tom Essaye, Jack McIntyre, Lara Castleton, Janus Henderson, Michael Kantrowitz, we've, Kantrowitz, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Labor, Brandywine Global, ISM, Nasdaq, Fed, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Bank of America, Fund
Financial markets are slowly starting to absorb the possibility that what was once a toss-up presidential election campaign has taken a notable turn. That has put investors in a quandary of how to handicap what a Trump presidency would look like from an economic and market standpoint. .SPX mountain 2024-06-28 S & P 500 performance since the debate However, the bond market has had a bit more of a reaction. The first Trump presidency and some of his campaign rhetoric nevertheless has led to guesswork about what could be ahead. "This particularly favors financials and there will be an expectation of more M & A approval in a Trump presidency.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, specter, Biden, Trump, Mark Malek, Siebert AdvisorNXT, Handicapping, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Ed Mills, Raymond James, Kamala Harris, Harris, Chris Krueger, TD Cowen, Krueger, ABC's George Stephanopoulos, , Sarah Min Organizations: Republican, Trump, Treasury, Bank of, White, Reading, New York Times, Biden, Democrat Locations: Washington
Investors are the most bullish they've been since November 2021, according to the global fund manager survey (FMS) released Tuesday from Bank of America Securities. Halfway through 2024, the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are each at records , on Monday closing once again at all-time highs. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2024. In November 2021 — the last time Wall Street was this bullish — the S & P 500 capped off a strong year, advancing more than 26%. 1 risk on investors' minds (according to 32% of investors, down from 41% in May), followed by geopolitics (22%, up from 18%), and the U.S. presidential election (16%, up from 9%).
Persons: they've, Michael Hartnett Organizations: Investors, Bank of America Securities, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, U.S, CNBC
Investors should buy dips in bonds and sell stocks after the Fed's first interest rate cut, according to Bank of America. The call from Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett is a reversal of his "anything but bonds trade." The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. AdvertisementBank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett is shaking up his trading playbook for the second half of the year. In a note on Friday, Hartnett recommended investors buy dips in bonds and sell stocks after the Federal Reserve makes its first interest rate cut.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, , Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, ABB, UST, PMI, Fed
Stocks are vulnerable to a stagflation or hard landing rebound, says Bank of America's Michael Hartnett. AdvertisementStock markets face downturn risk if stagflation or recession anxiety re-materializes, Bank of America's top global strategist Michael Hartnett wrote on Tuesday. "Sentiment not at 'close-eyes-and-sell' levels but risk assets vulnerable to more evidence of stagflation," he noted in the bank's latest Global Fund Manager Survey. Although outlooks have since calmed, stagflation seemed like a growing possibility last month, when estimate-beating inflation data eclipsed shallow first-quarter GDP. Stagflation may have some part to play, as inflation remains the leading tail risk, while fears of an "economic hard landing" grew stronger.
Persons: America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, , Michael Hartnett, stagflation Organizations: America's, Service, materializes, Bank of America's, Global Fund, Survey, Japan Utilities, Federal Reserve Locations: China, Europe, Japan
Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.
Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, , of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan
Read previewMichael Hartnett, Bank of America's top global strategist, thinks a no-landing scenario is the most-likely outcome for the US economy in the months ahead. That means the labor market would remain strong, but inflation would also stay above the Federal Reserve's long-term goal of 2%. While that's fine for now, Hartnett warns it's a path that eventually leads to trouble for the economy and stocks. "We say rising no landing risks = rising hard landing risks," Hartnett said in an April 11 note. The fund's price dipped below its 200-day moving average in 2020 and 2022, when the economy slowed and stocks underperformed.
Persons: , Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, it's, Michael Landsberg Organizations: Service, Bank of America's, Business, Consumer, Bank of America, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management, Fed Locations: REITs, Ukraine
Here are six recent bubble warnings from experts this week:Advertisement1. "We are nonetheless in a market bubble." Paul Dietrich"The Stock Market Bubble Is About to Burst — Look Out!" AdvertisementGrantham also suggested the AI craze would end and bring the stock market down with it. Michael GayedGayed flagged the recent surge in gold, utility stocks, and long-term Treasury bonds as evidence of mounting market jitters in an InvestorPlace op-ed this week.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Jeremy Grantham Stocks, Grantham, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Larry Summers, Summers, Michael Gayed Gayed Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Business, Rosenberg Research, North, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Tidal Locations: North American
Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.
Persons: , David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office
Stubbornly high inflation and a wobbly jobs market are combining to pose an ominous threat to the U.S. economy, Bank of America chief market strategist Michael Hartnett warned. The result is a narrative of "macro shifting from Q4/Q1 'Goldilocks' to Q1/Q2 'Stagflation,'" Hartnett said in his weekly "Flow Show" note to clients dated Thursday. As Hartnett indicated, the U.S. closed 2023 with the labor market looking strong and GDP posting a solid 3.2% gain. On the jobs market, while nonfarm payrolls have risen strongly , household employment actually is down by about 900,000 since November and full-time jobs have declined by nearly 1.8 million. The Fed is "implicitly ... tolerating higher inflation" as way to inflate the debt away, a condition that means "weaker policy credibility = weaker currency … why crypto & gold [are] at all-time highs."
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Stagflation, nonfarm, specter, That's Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, New, Fed, U.S ., Atlanta Fed, Nasdaq Locations: U.S
Bank of AmericaIn the note, Hartnett laid out more evidence that a bubble could be developing in stocks. The current real 10-year rate is 1.6%, according to Fed data. Hartnett said a falling number of job quitters shows a weakening labor market, hence the Fed's apparent willingness to cut rates soon. February's inflation data will be released next week, but January's data showed that prices are still rising at a pesky pace of 3.1%, above the Fed's stated goal of 2%. Whether a Fed pivot is a good thing for investors depends on just how cool labor market data becomes.
Persons: , Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, quitters, Alejandra Grindal, Ned Davis, it's, Grindal Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, PHLX Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Semiconductor, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Bank of America's, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Ned, Ned Davis Research
The Federal Reserve's rate-cut signal in December triggered a furious rally to record highs, unleashing animal spirits that are fueling similar speculative activities from the depths of the pandemic. "The animal spirits are reviving," Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Global Research, said in a phone interview. "Animal spirits, they don't necessarily start with the biggest animals in the jungle," Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said by phone. To be sure, others believe the market rally has been justified by the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and the contribution it's likely to make to future corporate profits. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said the U.S. stock market is not in a speculative bubble based on his criteria.
Persons: Bitcoin, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Cryptocurrency, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Quincy Krosby, Ray Dalio Organizations: BofA Global Research, Nasdaq, GameStop, Palo Alto Networks, Research, LPL Locations: Nigeria, Argentina, Snowflake, YOLO, . U.S, U.S
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