Top related persons:
Top related locs:
Top related orgs:

Search resuls for: "Michael Kantrowitz"


25 mentions found


Investors should focus on high-quality stocks, says Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz. High-quality stocks have high profit margins, earnings growth + momentum, and stable balance sheets. High-quality healthcare stocks in the S&P 500 beat the overall index by 22% over the last year. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementPiper Sandler's Chief Investment Strategist Michael Kantrowitz says investors should be focusing on high-quality stocks.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz ., , Piper, Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Service, Business
Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . And the knock-on effects extend beyond TikTok, impacting everything from President Joe Biden's reelection campaign to Apple and Tesla . AdvertisementTikTok, Tyler Le/BIThe TikTok-US government fight pits two pillars of American society against each other: free speech and national security. 3 things in businessDeliormanli/Getty, Olivier Verriest/Getty, Andrei Akushevich/Getty, Tyler Le/BIIn other newsAdvertisementWhat's happening todayToday's earnings: Airbnb, Uber, and other companies are reporting .
Persons: , swiping, Tyler Le, ByteDance, Dan Whateley, Geoff Weiss, Joe Biden's, It'll, TikTok, hasn't, haven't, Fallon, Jane Fraser isn't, Fraser, Piper Sandler, Michael Kantrowitz, Josh Edelson, Isabel Fernandez, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Getty, Olivier Verriest, Andrei Akushevich, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Apple, Chinese Communist Party, Big Tech, Getty, Pujol, Associated Press, Facebook Locations: France, China, Beijing, Citadel, Millennium, AFP, New York, London
A Piper Sandler recession indicator says an economic downturn could be here. This indicator typically precedes official NBER recession announcements by about four months. But Chief Investment Strategist Michael Kantrowitz says stocks should still rise in the near-term. Popular recession indicators like the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index have been signaling for over a year now that a downturn is ahead. Last week, a lesser-known gauge — with just as impressive a track record — joined their ranks in warning of trouble ahead for the US economy.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Michael Kantrowitz, , Piper Organizations: Conference, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business
Read previewJust seven stocks accounted for the lion's share of returns for the S&P 500 in 2023. Piper SandlerIn a January 23 note to clients, he said that only three of the seven stocks are well-positioned to keep rising, while two are in a more neutral position and another two are loaded with "red flags." When analyzing the seven stocks, he looked at fundamental traits that make them a strong buy, as well as downside risks to the companies. On fundamentals, Alphabet and Meta each scored a one and Apple came in right behind with a two. But the remaining two stocks in the group — Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) had a ton of downside risks, he said.
Persons: , Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, Meta's, Tesla Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Business, Google, Facebook Locations: lockstep
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYields will end the year lower than where they are now, says Piper Sandler's Michael KantrowitzMichael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how the strategist is parsing through the earnings results thus far, if there are still hopes for a bond rally, and more.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRemain in high-quality stocks that can withstand volatile macro backdrop: Piper Sandler's KantrowitzMichael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the big surprise to Kantrowitz investment thesis going into the year, what the firm's price target will theorize, and more.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Kantrowitz Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler
Right now, it's up 7.7% year-over-year and continues to rise, prompting Kantrowitz to say it's a "huge red flag for me." Still, while the unemployment rate is up to 3.9% from its 3.4% low earlier this year, unemployment claims have not spiked meaningfully. Piper Sandler"Regarding employment – I see enough data that has me convinced that we are at the very onset of a recession right now," Kantrowitz said. If the unemployment rate continues to tick upward, even slightly, it will likely trigger the Sahm rule mentioned above. Plenty of market onlookers see a recession in 2024, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach and Citadel founder Ken Griffin.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Sahm's, It's, Claudia Sahm, Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeffery Gundlach, Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Federal, Business, Institute for Supply Management's, Investor, Federal Reserve, National Federal, Independent, Treasury, Conference, DoubleLine Capital, Citadel, Bank of America
The US economy added just 150,000 jobs, under the expected 180,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, now 0.5% higher than its low earlier this year. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Bullandbearprofits.comSecond, the inverted yield curve is starting to steepen. An inverted yield curve has been an extremely reliable recession indicator over the last several decades. Bullandbearprofits.com"Proven leading indicators show that the unemployment rate is likely to start rising materially soon. Piper SandlerIn addition to the yield curve and employment indicators above, other recession indicators continue to point to a downturn ahead.
Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merril Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, bode, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent, Fed, Bank of America, Societe Generale's, Generale, Edwards . Societe Generale Locations: lockstep, Edwards .
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets will stay between a soft and hard landing, says Piper Sandler's Michael KantrowitzMichael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss his market outlook, job numbers, and more.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler
In a recent note to clients, Kantrowitz highlighted unemployment claims data leading up to the Great Recession. But looking at the revised data, a clearer trend starts in September of 2007, he said. Looking at prior yield curve inversions, it's taken more than 12 months for jobless claims to start to meaningfully trend upward. Piper SandlerAnother indicator that tells Kantrowitz that jobless claims are going to start increase is — interestingly enough — furniture sales. For example, Bank of America and JPMorgan strategists both walked back their 2023 recession calls earlier this year.
Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, it's, Kantrowitz, there's, he's, Jeremy Grantham, Gary Shilling Organizations: Wall Street, The Conference Board, RBC, Bank of America, JPMorgan
It's even tougher to buy a home right now than it was during the peak of the mid-2000s housing bubble. For one, the labor market remains very strong, meaning demand will be supported — if people still have jobs, they still have money coming in to save for a home. Goldman SachsIn the Great Recession, rising unemployment hurt housing demand, bringing down home prices. Another reason Karoui thinks things are different today is what's happened in the adjustable-rate mortgage market. During the Great Recession, for example, unemployment stayed around current levels for several more months following Treasury yield curve inversion before rising meaningfully.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lotfi Karoui, Karoui, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Piper, Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Wall, Conference, Equity
The hikes scared investors into thinking a recession would be on the way. But today, the labor market remains strong and inflation is under 4%, prompting rosier outlooks about the fate of the US economy. Rate hikes take time to work their way into the economy. But their main adversary going forward is going to be the Fed, with inflation still elevated. The Consumer Price Index is at 3.7% year-over-year, and core inflation, which the Fed watches closely, is even higher at 4.3%.
Persons: Michael Pento, Piper Sandler, Pento, Louis, LEI, Greg Boutle, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Jeremy Grantham, Merrill Lynch, Gary Shilling, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Conference, Stock, Robeco, Nasdaq, BNP, Fed
In theory, these higher interest rates push down demand and slow inflation by forcing companies to cut prices to attract stretched-thin customers. And Americans have been spending right through the higher interest rates: Personal consumption expenditures and retail sales numbers have continued to forge upward. But eventually, this attitude will wane as people realize that the higher rates aren't a flash in the pan. The Treasury yield curve measures the different interest rates that are paid out on various bonds issued by the US government. It's the same story every time, both Kantrowitz and Rosenberg say: Investors are bad at pricing in a recession before it unfolds.
Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Milton Friedman, Bob Doll, Doll, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Tom Essaye, Essaye, Granger, Kantrowitz, Jerome Powell, William Edwards Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Consumer, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Silicon Valley Bank, Rosenberg Research, Fed, Auto, Wall, CPI, Institute for Supply Management's, Treasury, Royal Bank of Canada Locations: Silicon, YOLO
Yields on 10-year Treasury yields have surged well above 4%. With both stock valuations and interest rates high, stock prices could continue to fall. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes surged to 15-year highs this week, surpassing 4.3% for the first time since late 2007. This has put a damper on what was a 20% rally for the S&P 500 from January to the end of July. The median S&P 500 year-end price target among major Wall Street strategists is 4,300, just below the index's current price around 4,370.
Persons: Stocks, Adam Turnquist, Treasurys, It's, John Lynch, they've, Tom Essaye, Lynch, Turnquist, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Greg Boutle, Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Treasury, LPL, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth, Wall Street, Rosenberg Research, RBC, BNP
The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.
Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells
The S&P 500 has rallied 17% year-to-date, but the Treasury yield curve and LEI point to a downturn. For Rosenberg, the difference is that we currently have an inverted yield curve, a recession signal that has preceded every downturn since the 1960s. An inverted yield curve means that rates on short-duration Treasurys rise higher than rates on long-duration Treasurys. The yield curve inverts often during Fed hiking cycles because short-term Treasury rates track closely along with the fed funds rate. The below chart shows the share of consecutive trading days where the yield curve has been inverted.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, , Here's Lacy Hunt, here's Rosenberg, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Federal, Hoisington Investment Management Company, of Labor Statistics
John Hussman warns that valuations, investor sentiment, and market technicals are poor right now. A recipe for stock market disasterOn valuations, Hussman likes to compare total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of non-financial stocks. His criteria for technical overextension include an S&P 500 14-day relative strength index above 70, at least a 4% rate-of-change for the S&P 500 in the last 14-day period, and the S&P 500 at least 4.5% above its 50-day average. The chart below shows advances and declines for the S&P 500 in the 40 trading sessions after these criteria have been met. Piper SandlerOutside of technicals, however, macroeconomic fundamentals will likely be a main driver of market returns in the months ahead.
Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, John Hussman —, , there's, he's, they've, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler Organizations: Street, Reserve Locations: technicals
Manufacturing data, inflation data, market breadth, and high rates are warning signals, he says. Bullandbearprofits.comShort-term Treasury rates remaining elevated prove the Fed is going to continue raising rates, Wolfenbarger said. The ISM PMI Manufacturing Index is currently at 46, and readings below 50 mean the economy is contracting. Bullandbearprofits.comAll of this amounts to a bearish outlook for stocks, Wolfenbarger believes. Some in the market are growing fatigued of the recession forecasts as the market surges back toward all-time-highs.
Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger —, Merril Lynch, Piper, Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley Wilson, there's Organizations: Federal, JPMorgan, Bull, CPI, Cleveland Fed, University of Michigan, PMI
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNow is the time to rotate out of overextended growth stocks, says StoneX's Kathryn Rooney VeraMichael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kathryn Rooney Vera, StoneX, and Gene Munster, Deepwater, join 'Last Call' to talk the ongoing market rally and what could derail it.
Persons: StoneX's Kathryn Rooney Vera Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kathryn Rooney Vera, StoneX, Gene Munster
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Michael Kantrowitz, Kathryn Rooney Vera and Gene MunsterMichael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kathryn Rooney Vera, StoneX, and Gene Munster, Deepwater, join 'Last Call' to talk the ongoing market rally and what could derail it.
Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Kathryn Rooney Vera, Gene Munster Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, StoneX, Gene Munster
Plus, falling inflation means weaker pricing power, and therefore weaker revenue growth, Kantrowitz said. If you look at long-term earnings growth, we're sitting near record-low levels. Long-term growth expectations, shown in gray, are near all-time lows. The PEG ratio takes into account longer-term future earnings, as opposed to the more present-based price-to-earnings ratio. He added: "For all intents and purposes, the PEG ratio has never been higher in a normalized backdrop."
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, downturns, Albert Edwards, Edwards, I'm Organizations: PMI, Treasury, Generale
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings growth is expected to decline further this year, says Piper Sandler's Michael KantrowitzMichael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss recession concerns hinging on employment data, avoiding cyclical investments, and a sector neutral portfolio model.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler
It also doesn't offer a fair characterization of the entire S&P 500's performance. Hussman's preferred valuation measure is total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of non-financial stocks. According to Bank of America, 80% of the S&P 500's returns over a 10-year period can be attributed to valuations. The red line in the chart below shows the gauge, while the blue is the S&P 500's price action. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009.
Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, hasn't, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, David Rosenberg, Solita, 18.5x, it's, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, UBS, University of Pennsylvania, Housing
Stocks are once again in a bull market, with the S&P 500 now up more than 20% since October's lows. Nearly all of the recent rally can also be attributed to the index's top 10 stocks, he said. "During the late-90s tech bubble, over one-third of returns came from these mega-cap stocks," Wool said. "In the recent bull run, by contrast, almost the entire market return was accounted for by just ten companies' performance." A 15% decline would put the S&P 500 at 3,800.
Persons: Stocks, Rayliant's Phillip Wool, Wool, Phillip Wool, Solita, Louis, , Lauren Goodwin, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, it's, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: UBS, LPL Financial, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis The Conference, Wool, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Life Investments, CME Group
This is mind, some strategists are urging investors to proceed with caution around the technology. Below, we've compiled quotes from strategists who are warning investors not to get caught up in the hype. For example, of the top-ten technology stocks at the peak of the Tech Bubble, only two remain in the top ten today," he continued. He said he plans on reducing his positions in some AI stocks. "The excitement about generative AI has distracted investors from the possible risks of a looming recession," Goodwin said on June 6.
Persons: we've, Jason Pride, Michael Landsberg, Wealth Management Landsberg, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler Lauren Goodwin, Goodwin Organizations: Tech, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management, New York
Total: 25