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☆ Polls show a tight presidential race. Here's how a gender gap and enthusiasm could be decisive
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPolls show a tight presidential race. Here's how a gender gap and enthusiasm could be decisiveCNBC's Steve Liesman, NBC News senior political editor Mark Murray, NBC News and MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki, Public Opinion Strategies director Micah Roberts and Hart Research partner Jay Campbell discuss the final polls from CNBC and NBC News which show a tight presidential race, and what factors in the polling data could be decisive on Election Day.

Persons: Steve Liesman, Mark Murray, Steve Kornacki, Micah Roberts, Hart, Jay Campbell Organizations: NBC, NBC News, MSNBC, Hart Research, CNBC

☆ Gender? Economy? Experts weigh in on which factor is most likely to flip the presidential race
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

When the votes are counted in U.S. presidential election, will it be the gender gap, the income gap, the Latino vote or the media and marketing campaigns that turned out to be decisive? CNBC Senior Economics Reporter Steve Liesman sat down with four polling experts for an in-depth look into the data to see which ones could turn the election to either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. The panel included Steve Kornacki, NBC News national political correspondent; Mark Murray, NBC News senior political editor; Micah Roberts, Public Opinion Strategies partner and CNBC's Republican pollsters; and Jay Campbell, Hart Research partner and CNBC's Democratic pollster. Yes, it's likely to be the economy. See the full video above to hear the discussion.

Persons: Steve Liesman, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Steve Kornacki, Mark Murray, Micah Roberts, Jay Campbell, Hart, it's Organizations: CNBC, NBC News, NBC, Republican, Hart Research, Democratic

— 42% of national registered voters pick Harris, while 40% choose Trump. Comparing Trump’s and Harris’ popularityIn addition, the CNBC poll shows Trump slightly more popular than Harris nationally, with Trump’s rating at 42% positive, 48% negative (-6 net rating), while Harris' stood at 39% positive, 49% negative (-10). But their ratings are almost identical in the battleground states — 44% positive, 49% negative for Trump (-5), compared with Harris’ 43% positive, 48% negative rating (-5). That 4-point edge for Republicans is identical in the combined battleground states, 48% for Republicans to 44% for Democrats. CNBC’s poll was conducted Oct. 15-19 of 1,000 registered voters, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Persons: CNBC’s, Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Kamala Harris, Harris, ” Trump, Trump, Jay Campbell, Campbell, Micah Roberts Organizations: Republican, Democrat, Trump, America Economic Survey, NBC News, CNBC, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, Republicans Locations: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona , Georgia

☆ Voters think America’s economy stinks. There’s nothing that will change that before the election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

In reality, the data — no matter how bad or good — probably won’t make an ounce of difference for most voters. Most voters likely don’t even follow the overall economic trends, let alone one month’s data, he said. Instead, their views on the economy are shaped by how far their dollars are stretching today compared to recent times. That’s a higher share compared to when voters were asked the same question in 2022. But the average American does not wait for news to come out to form an opinion on how the economy is functioning, she said.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, “, ”, Micah Roberts, Republican pollster, Roberts, That’s, don’t, Joanne Hsu Organizations: New, New York CNN, Harvard Center, American Political Studies, Republican, NBC News, CNN, University of Michigan, Consumers Locations: New York

☆ Trump picks up the pace: From the Politics Desk
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( The Politics Desk | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +6 min

Plus, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down the fault lines in our new poll of Latino voters. Leading the charge for more events is Trump himself, a campaign official said, saying Trump was supposed to have a slow Sunday but insisted instead, “We got to do something,” leading to the rally in Erie, Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 54%-40% among registered Latino voters nationwide, the poll shows. “We are looking at Latino voters rather than a consolidated Latino community,” she added. Read more: Nnamdi Egwuonwu dives into how the Harris and Trump campaigns are targeting the increasingly fragmented Latino electorate in very different ways.

Persons: Donald Trump, Mark Murray, Harris, Katherine Doyle, Jake Traylor, Jonathan Allen, Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, lobbed, ”, “, Helene, Hurricane Helene, Matt Dixon, Adam Edelman, Megan Lebowitz, Brian Kemp hasn’t, Biden, Kemp, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, ” Biden, Read, There’s, Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona, Arroyo, Republican pollster Micah Roberts, Telemundo’s Julio Vaqueiro, ’, — Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Trump, GOP, Labor, ”, Georgia Gov, Republican, FEMA, Democratic, NBC News, Telemundo, CNBC, Catholic, Latina, Hart Research Associates, Press Locations: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, U.S, Mexico, Erie , Pennsylvania, Butler , Pennsylvania, Valdosta , Georgia, Hurricane, Georgia, North

Similarly, Latino voters’ preference for which party controls Congress stands at 54% Democrats, 42% Republicans — a much narrower gap than in past years. Surveying 1,000 Latino voters nationwide in English and Spanish, the poll also finds a striking split on immigration between Latino voters who prioritize a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and preventing discrimination, and those who focus more on border enforcement. Sixty-two percent of Latino voters believe immigration helps more than it hurts, versus 35% who think it hurts more than it helps. In this poll, 54% of Latino voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 42% who want Republicans in charge. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino poll of 1,000 registered Latino voters was conducted Sept. 16-23.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Joe Biden’s, ”, Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona, Arroyo, Republican pollster Micah Roberts, ” Trump, Victor Gutierrez, Gutierrez, Michelle García, Matthew Delao, Fredy Arguello, Delao, Arguello, ” Arguello, Harris ’, Biden, García Organizations: ’, NBC News, Telemundo, CNBC, Democratic, Trump, NBC, Republicans —, “, Hart Research Associates, Republican, Democratic Party —, Young, Catholic Locations: New Jersey, Puerto Rican, Peruvian, Maryland, California, United States, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Spain, Cuba, Dominican Republic

☆ Harris leads with Latino voters, but the economy narrows the margin for Dems: Survey
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-29 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The survey of 1,000 Latino likely voters found the Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, leading the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, by 54% to 40%. Harris's 14-point lead is the narrowest margin for a Democratic candidate among surveyed Latino voters in at least the past four elections, going back to 2012. All of these groups rate the economy poorly, with Latino voters overall about as downbeat on the economy as the rest of the country. While that's about equal to the rest of the population, it stands 11 points higher than in the NBC 2022 Latino survey. Here is a demographic profile of Latino voters from the NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey:

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Aileen Cardona, Arroyo, Micah Roberts, Republican pollster, Harris, Trump, Harris's, Biden, That's, it's Organizations: Republican, Democratic, National Constitution Center, Republicans, NBC, CNBC, Telemundo, Trump, Hart Research, America Economic Survey Locations: Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, America

☆ Biden pulls even with Trump as economic view improves slightly, CNBC survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Evelyn Hockstein | David Swanson | ReutersAmericans' views on the economy have improved modestly, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey, helping President Biden pull even with Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup. But former President Trump holds a commanding lead on several economic issues, like inflation, taxes and immigration, that voters say are most important in this election. The survey of 1,001 Americans across the country showed 46% of voters choose Trump and 45% picking Biden in a one-on-one match with 10% undecided. Younger Democrats, in fact, are evenly split on the presidents handling of foreign policy. While those issues look to be dragging on the president's approval, he has received a boost from somewhat better overall views on the economy.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Evelyn Hockstein, David Swanson, Biden, Trump, Jay Campbell, Hart, Micah Roberts, it's, they've Organizations: Reuters, CNBC, America Economic Survey, Trump, Biden, Hart Research, Democratic, Republican

☆ How Biden hopes to recapture voters scarred by inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +14 min

A majority of Hispanics, and even a plurality of Black voters, said Biden’s policies would cause inflation to rise, the survey found. You can’t not make the contrast and comparison.”These negative retrospective assessments of the Biden and Trump economic records create huge headwinds for the president. “Voters—even past Biden voters who disapprove of his economic record—clearly reject what Trump and Republicans are offering,” Democratic pollster Margie Omero said in an email. After voters were exposed to Biden’s populist arguments, assessments of his economic record improved in the group’s polling, Clark said. But even after hearing that case, most voters in the group’s surveys still gave Biden negative marks for his economic performance, the study found.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, Biden –, “, ”, Danielle Deiseroth, West Virginia Sen, Joe Manchin, Shawn Fain, Evelyn Hockstein, Adam Green, Michael Tyler, Republican pollster Micah Roberts, It’s, Jim McLaughlin, ” McLaughlin, Roberts, ” Roberts, can’t, ” Tyler, Margie Omero, ’, Bobby Clark, Clark Organizations: CNN, GOP, Trump, Teamsters, Democratic, ACA, West, United Auto Workers, Biden, CNBC, Social Security, Republican, White, NBC News, New York Times, Siena College, CBS, Union, “ Locations: Wisconsin, Michigan, Belleville , Michigan, Scranton , Pennsylvania, Democratic, State, Biden’s

☆ Biden would lose in matchup vs. Trump, according to CNBC survey; Israel funding has strong support
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey also finds support for President Joe Biden at nearly all-time lows and that he would lose by 4 points to former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head race. A smaller, but still solid 61% majority respond that it's important to fund military aid to Ukraine compared with 52% who support military and economic aid to Taiwan. Falling Biden supportMeanwhile, a combination of negative views on the economy and geopolitical tensions looks to be eroding support for President Biden. It's the highest disapproval and second-lowest approval rating of Biden's presidency. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwardsBiden's 32% approval rating on the economy is the lowest of his presidency, while the 63% economic disapproval rating is the second lowest.

Persons: Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Evelyn Hockstein, Donald Trump, Biden, Micah Roberts, Republican pollster, Jay Campbell, Campbell Organizations: Israeli, Hamas, Reuters, American, Israel, CNBC, America Economic, NBC, U.S, Republican, Hart Research Associates, Democratic, Trump Locations: Israel, Tel Aviv, U.S, Gaza, Mexico, Ukraine, Taiwan

☆ Biden's economic approval rating rises slightly, but is still just 37% despite 'Bidenomics' push
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The president's economic approval rating inched up by 3 percentage points compared with the prior survey in April, with a 4-point drop in disapproval. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwardsThe survey showed small gains in Americans' views on the economy, though to levels that remain depressed. The percentage of Americans saying the economy is excellent or good rose 6 points to a still-low 20%. And Americans believe Republicans have better policies than Democrats to handle the key economic issues, often by substantial margins. Republicans lead Democrats by double digits when asked which party would do a better job on the economy, inflation and improving the respondent's personal financial situation.

Persons: Joe Biden, Jonathan Ernst, Joe Biden's, Jay Campbell, Campbell, …, Biden, Micah Roberts, Republican pollster, That's Organizations: Flex, White, CNBC, America Economic, Hart Research, Democratic, Republicans, Republican Locations: U.S, West Columbia, South Carolina

☆ Consumers’ caution around holiday spending is the highest since 2013, CNBC survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

American shoppers plan to watch their wallets closely this holiday shopping season, with 41% saying they plan to spend less this year than last, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey . The survey found that average spending intentions for gifts fell 11% from last year to $907 from $1,004 last year when Americans were flush with cash from government stimulus. A third of Americans say they will spend less because of inflation. The CNBC All-America Economic Survey of 801 Americans throughout the nation was conducted during Nov. 26-30. The survey found 30% of participants saying they would use credit cards they don't intend to pay off immediately or other debt in their holiday shopping, up eight points from last year.

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