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The Federal Reserve is expected to announce Wednesday its first interest rate cut since 2020. While layoffs remain low, hiring has virtually ground to a halt, especially in some white-collar professions, making the job search process unusually difficult for many. That would entail a cut of at least 0.5% at some point by the time the Fed announces its interest rate in January. The Fed believes Wednesday's anticipated cut, and ones likely coming over the next several months, should put a floor under further economic deterioration. "Layoffs remain low, job openings remain high, GDP is growing at a healthy pace, and there have not been any major negative shocks," David Mericle, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. economist, said in a note to clients.

Persons: Jay Bryson, Wednesday's, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, Bank of America, Fed, NBC News, Citi Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ Why you shouldn't worry about the job market and a recession just yet
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewThe labor market is trending in the wrong direction, but it might not be time to sound the alarm just yet. The unemployment rate has risen for four consecutive months and at 4.3%, it's the highest it's been in nearly three years. However, there are some reasons it might be too soon to freak out about the labor market. AdvertisementSatyam Panday, chief US economist for S&P Global Ratings, said in a note published on August 6 that the slowing labor market appears to suggest a "normalization" of a previously red-hot labor market, rather than an "economy that's about to slip into a recession." The labor market might get worseTo be sure, there are plenty of reasons to remain concerned about the state of the labor market.

Persons: —, there's, it's, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Manuel Abecasis, they've, It's, Goldman Sachs that's, Satyam Panday, Michael Gapen, JP Morgan, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Federal, Satyam, Bank of America, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, New Century Advisors Locations: US

☆ Here's everything you need to know about the Fed decision coming Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Market pricing currently indicates an absolute certainty that the Fed will approve its first reduction in more than four years — when it meets Sept. 17-18. They don't want investors to start pricing in a rate cut coming in September and there's literally nothing else that could possibly happen," he said. "Opening the door for that rate cut is probably the most appropriate thing for them at this point," Reynolds added. Expectations for easingGlenmede expects that starting in September, the Fed could cut at each of the three remaining meetings. The Fed will not provide an update on its quarterly summary of economic projections at this meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Kleponis, they've, Michael Reynolds, Reynolds, there's, it'll, Powell, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Mericle, Bill English, We've Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, AFP, Getty, Glenmede, Fed Locations: Washington ,, Yale, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Fed will wait for July inflation data before signaling September rate cut: Goldman Sachs' Mericle
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will wait for July inflation data before signaling September rate cut: Goldman Sachs' MericleDavid Mericle, Goldman Sachs Chief US Economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the economy, possible rate cuts and more.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Goldman Organizations: US Locations: Goldman Sachs

☆ The key for markets next week will be inflation as stocks try to maintain record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The news will come with stocks on pace to close out a strong month that included all-time highs. Stocks are poised to end an impressive month of gains after some softer inflation data released earlier in May and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings revived investor exuberance in the market rally. On Friday, the 30-stock Dow was on pace to snap a five-week win streak, falling by 2% for the period. Pesky inflation, consumer weakness The April personal income and expenditures report, which includes the PCE inflation reading, could confirm the recent trend of cooling inflation. Pending Home Sales (April) Earnings: Costco Wholesale , Ulta Beauty , NetApp , Best Buy , Dollar General , Hormel Foods Friday, May 31 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Dow, Mike Dickson, Dickson, FactSet, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Steph, it's, Christian Mueller, Glissmann, Mueller Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Horizon Investments, Fed, PCE, Robinhood, Costco Wholesale, Software, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Hormel, Chicago PMI Locations: Chicago

☆ Wall Street is confused and divided over how many times the Fed will cut rates this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street reacted Thursday to this week's Fed meeting, with forecasts scattered across a range of outcomes for where monetary policy heads next. Most economists for the biggest forecasting firms expect the central bank to lower benchmark interest rates sometime later this year. Goldman left in place its call for two rate cuts this year of a quarter percentage point each, with one in July and the other in November. "If inflation comes in stronger than in our baseline, we would expect the first rate cut to be postponed to December," he wrote. For 2025, we continue to expect four rate cuts."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Powell, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Marc Giannoni, Michael Gapen, Michael Bloom Organizations: Fed, Futures, Group, Citigroup, Barclays, Bank of America

☆ Here's everything to expect when the Fed wraps up its meeting Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Recent commentary from policymakers and on Wall Street indicates there's not much else the committee can do at this point. But they're still hopeful that they will be in a position to cut rates later." Markets actually have held up pretty well since Powell made those comments on April 16, though stocks sold off Tuesday ahead of the meeting. Some on Wall Street, though, are still hopeful that inflation data will show progress and allow the central bank to cut. The Wall Street bank's economists are preparing for the possibility that the Fed could be on hold for longer, particularly if inflation continues to surprise to the upside.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott, they're, Powell, We've, there's, specter, LeBas, There's, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, —, Donald Trump, Goldman, Mericle Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs Committee, Getty, Federal Reserve, Federal, Market Committee, Fed, Dow Jones, Department, Labor Department, Republican

☆ Here’s what would happen to the US economy if there are no rate cuts this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

That’s why Fed Chair Powell conveyed on Tuesday the central bank won’t be cutting interest rates any time soon. How would the US economy handle more months of painstakingly high interest rates? Investors are banking on cutsWhen Fed officials initially penciled in three rate cuts at the end of last year, markets hit new highs. But the longer the Fed leaves interest rates higher means more pain could be inflicted on households and businesses, said Goldstein. But not everyone thinks cracks in the economy will widen if the Fed doesn’t cut rates this year.

Persons: Powell, ” Powell, paring, Itay Goldstein, Tesla, Goldstein, ”, Brian Rose, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Tiff, Investors, Dow, Nasdaq, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, CNN, Fed, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: New York

☆ Premarket stocks: Rate cut in June or July? What matters is the Fed wants to get started
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

[About 70% of investors now think a rate cut will occur in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.] Goldman Sachs is currently predicting a 15% chance of recession over the next 12 months, down from 35% last year. Seeing that happen made us more confident that the Fed wouldn’t be forced to cause a recession in order to get inflation down. The reason we say 15% risk is because that is roughly the historical unconditional average. So a 15% recession rate is baseline for you, it will never go below that number?

Persons: Dow, Bell, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs, It’s, it’s, we’ve, I’m, Samantha Delouya, authority’s, ” United, Joe Biden Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Goldman Sachs ’, Bell, National Bureau of Economic, FAA, United, Federal Aviation Administration, United Airlines, United Boeing, ”, Federal Communications Commission, Program, Lawmakers, ACP, FCC Locations: New York, We’re, Medford , Oregon

☆ Yen holds nerve as BOJ decision looms; dollar resurgent
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The yen was last little changed at 149.14 per dollar, while the Australian dollar fell 0.06% $0.6556. Against the euro, the yen steadied at 162.18, with the Japanese currency likewise little changed against the Aussie at 97.78. So BOJ's decisions generally are, as far as the yen is concerned, a matter of secondary importance," said Berry. "Holding policy rates steady and policy guidance broadly unchanged seems like a reasonably straightforward decision in the presence of high uncertainty," said Carl Ang, fixed income research analyst at MFS Investment Management. The New Zealand dollar was similarly pinned near Monday's two-week low and last bought $0.6079.

Persons: Gareth Berry, It's, they're, it's, Berry, Carl Ang, Sterling, —, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Reserve Bank of Australia, Aussie, Nikkei, Macquarie, Federal Reserve, MFS Investment Management, U.S ., New Zealand Locations: Bath, England, Asia, Japan, United States, Down, Australia, Monday's

☆ Goldman Sachs now sees just 3 rate cuts in 2024 amid persistently hot inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates just 3 times in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank lowered its forecast for 4 interest rate cuts after elevated inflation data. AdvertisementHigher-than-expected inflation readings over the past two months have led Goldman Sachs to revise its 2024 interest rate forecasts. The bank now expects the Federal Reserve to deliver just three 25-basis point interest rate cuts this year, down from its prior projection of four rate cuts. Three interest rate cuts in 2024 is about half of what the market originally expected at the beginning of the year.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Mericle Organizations: Federal, Reserve

☆ Wall Street has adjusted its expectations for when the Fed starts cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Traders have moved out the probability of a March easing from around 90% in recent weeks to a coin-flip in the days leading up to this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting to about a 1-in-3 chance Thursday. That's not to say the market still doesn't think the committee will cut rates sharply this year, but any dialing back now probably won't come quite as soon as expected. For the most part, Wall Street commentary showed an expectation that the Fed will cut at least four times this year, likely beginning in either May or June. "As inflation falls, real rates become more restrictive, and we think gaining consensus to cut will be easier." Most of Wall Street expects the FOMC to skip November, as the meeting falls the same week as the U.S. presidential election.

Persons: Jerome Powell, That's, Matthew Luzzetti, FOMC, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Powell, David Mericle, Michael Gapen, Marc Giannoni, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Traders, Deutsche Bank, Dow Jones, Fed, Wall, U.S, Bank of America, Barclays

☆ Here's why Goldman Sachs pushed back Fed rate cut expectation to May
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why Goldman Sachs pushed back Fed rate cut expectation to MayDavid Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, and CNBC’s Steve Liesman join ‘The Exchange’ to discuss how many rate cuts we should expect from the Fed this year, the impact of high rates on the economy, and more.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Steve Liesman Organizations: ‘

☆ Sports investing has taken off, but the biggest prize in the industry remains almost untouchable
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. 3 things in marketsJim Esposito, Goldman Sachs' head of global markets and banking, is set to retire from the bank, the firm said Monday. Jim Esposito is leaving Goldman Sachs after nearly 30 years. While he didn't share his next move, he told peers he'd "bleed Goldman Sachs forever." Goldman Sachs says rate cuts need to be on the menu in March.

Persons: —, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Keyur Khamar, Marc Lasry, Steve Cohen, Aaron Mok, LeBron James, — Arthur Blank, Gerry Cardinale, Goldman Sachs, who's, Lasry, Cohen, Point72, it's, Patrick Smith, Peacock, David Tepper, Jim Esposito, We've, he'd, Jean Boivin, David Mericle, NurPhoto, Getty, Javier Zayas, Kevin Winter, Tyler Le, Critics, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Service, Costco, Getty, PGA Tour, Fenway Sports Group, NFL's Atlanta Falcons, Capital Group, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Mets, NFL, Denver Broncos, Washington, Washington Post, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers, BlackRock, Spotify, Apple, Google, Entertainment, Netflix, Studios, HBO, Disney, Walmart, Microsoft, Business Locations: Vegas, BlackRock, New York, London

☆ The labor market needs the first US rate cut to happen in March, Goldman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates in March because of downside risks in the labor market, according to Goldman Sachs. "There are some modest downside risks to inflation and the labor market that could still provide additional reasons for the FOMC to cut sooner rather than later." AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve should cut interest rates in March because there are downside risks to the labor market, according to Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle. Former Fed President Esther George noted just how quickly the labor market can sour, even when all indicators look positive. "The labor market is such a tricky one.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Mericle, Mericle, Powell, Esther George, George Organizations: Fed, Former, Wall Street

☆ US homebuyers are waiting for the Fed to start cutting interest rates. Here's when 10 experts say it's going to happen.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Mortgage rates could decline if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next year. Here are 10 projections from experts on when the Fed's first rate cut will come. While these factors serve as deterrents for prospective buyers, interest rates may not stay this high forever. AdvertisementWhile declining interest rates wouldn't directly cause mortgage rates to fall, the two tend to move in the same direction. FebruaryIn August, Preston Caldwell, a Morningstar senior US economist, wrote in a note that he expected the Fed to start cutting interest rates in February.

Persons: —, Preston Caldwell, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, David Einhorn, Diane Swonk, Andrew Hollenhorst, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, we'll, Simona Mocuta, Jeff Morton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, Morningstar, UBS, KPMG, Citi, Reuters, State Street Global Advisors, DWS Locations: North America's

☆ US rate cut not seen until Q4 2024 due to strong GDP growth -Goldman economists
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman projects the Fed to deliver its first rate cut in the fourth quarter of 2024 once a key inflation gauge falls below 2.5%. Goldman then expects one 25 basis point cut per quarter until the second quarter of 2026, when the fed funds rate would reach 3.5-3.75%, a "higher equilibrium rate than last cycle." By contrast, traders are expecting the Fed to cut rates starting in the middle of 2024, according to LSEG data. That is similar to the forecast from Morgan Stanley economists, who said in a report that they expect the first 25 basis point cut in June 2024. The initial rate cut will be followed by cuts at three more Fed meetings next year and at every meeting in 2025, Morgan Stanley said in its economics outlook report.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Lewis Krauskopf, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal, Goldman, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Don't expect house prices to fall this winter, says Goldman Sachs economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

And there's no relief coming for prospective homebuyers this winter, says a Goldman Sachs economist. "Prices are unlikely to decline meaningfully" because of the supply shortage, said David Mericle. AdvertisementAdvertisementProspective homebuyers shouldn't count on prices falling this winter – because there just aren't enough properties being put up for sale, according to a top Goldman Sachs economist. "Prices are unlikely to decline meaningfully, precisely because of the supply shortage," David Mericle, the chief US economist for the bank's global investment research division, told Yahoo Finance . But because of the supply shortage, I think the demand is still there for the market to clear at prices similar to where we are," Mericle said.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, —, Mericle, Freddie Mac – Organizations: Service, Yahoo Finance, Biden Administration, National Association of Realtors

☆ What higher-for-longer Fed policy will mean for the markets and economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who spoke to the press after the two-day session ended, "Resetting market expectations about real rates was his most important mission," Colas said. But this week's meeting indicated that Fed officials expect rates to stay higher for longer. The thinking there is that if inflation moves lower, the Fed won't need to keep nominal rates as high because real rates will be rising. "But, until one or both of those things happen, higher real rates are the Fed's strategy to tame inflation," Colas said. "This tells us that current equity market churn is unlikely to end until bond markets have settled out."

Persons: wasn't, Nicholas Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, Krishna Guha, Claudia Sahm, Guha, Powell, Powell's, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Mericle, Goldman doesn't, Mericle, DataTrek's Colas Organizations: DataTrek Research, Companies, Evercore ISI, U.S ., Fed

☆ US homebuyers are waiting for the Fed to start cutting interest rates. Here's when 9 experts say it's going to happen.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Mortgage rates could decline if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next year. Here are nine projections from experts on when the Fed's first rate cut will come. While these factors serve as deterrents for prospective buyers, interest rates may not stay this high forever. AdvertisementAdvertisementWhile declining interest rates wouldn't directly cause mortgage rates to fall, the two tend to move in the same direction. AdvertisementAdvertisementFebruaryOn August 31, Preston Caldwell, a Morningstar senior US economist, wrote in a note that he expected the Fed to start cutting interest rates in February.

Persons: Bob Michele, J.P, —, we'll, Preston Caldwell, David Einhorn, Diane Swonk, Andrew Hollenhorst, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Simona Mocuta, Jeff Morton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, Bloomberg Television, Morgan Asset, Morningstar, KPMG, Citi, Reuters, State Street Global Advisors, DWS Locations: Wall, Silicon, North America's

☆ The Fed may have beaten back inflation and skirted a recession for now, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed has curbed inflation without causing a recession, Goldman Sachs' chief US economist said. The Fed could make its first cut to interest rates by the second quarter of 2024, he said. In a "Goldman Sachs Exchanges" podcast episode, David Mericle shared his views on the US economy, inflation, and what the Fed's likely to do next. "I think we're in a situation where, with a lag, we should expect inflation to largely normalize," Mericle said. Moreover, Mericle dismissed fears of a looming recession triggered by the central bank's inflation fight.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Mericle, Dow, we'll Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

A 90% majority, 99 of 110 economists, polled Aug 14-18 say the Fed will keep the federal funds rate in the 5.25-5.50% range at its September meeting, in line with market pricing. The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation has fallen sharply from a peak of 7.0% following 11 interest rate hikes from near-zero in early 2022. As recently as June, over a three-quarters majority of economists polled said the Fed would start by end-March. Another 33 respondents, roughly 35%, forecast the Fed will go for its first rate cut in Q2, leaving 79 of 95, or 83% expecting at least one rate cut by mid-2024. That would help price pressures decline over the coming months, making the fed funds rate adjusted for inflation - the real interest rate - more restrictive if held unchanged.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Sal Guatieri, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs, Prerana Bhat, Indradip Ghosh, Pranoy Krishna, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S . Federal, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, Federal, Committee, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

☆ The Fed will cut rates when core PCE inflation data falls below 3% on year: Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will cut rates when core PCE inflation data falls below 3% on year: Goldman SachsDavid Mericle of Goldman Sachs discusses his outlook on U.S. economy

Persons: Goldman Sachs David Mericle, Goldman Sachs

ORLANDO, Florida, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Investors are hoping policymakers gathering at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Symposium later this month will shed light on one of the murkiest - yet fundamentally most important - tenets of monetary policy: R-star. Even the New York Fed's two most renowned R-star indicators, the Laubach-Williams model and the Holston-Laubach-Williams model, are, metaphorically speaking, miles apart. Martínez-García's estimate of short-term R-star is negative, while the New York Fed staffers' models suggest it has "increased considerably over the past year". The Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle having raised interest rates by 525 basis points to the highest since 2007. Longer-dated real bond yields have shot up to their highest level since 2009 even as market expectations for inflation and Fed rates have held steady.

Persons: Treasuries, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Williams, Enrique Martínez, García, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, David Mericle, Jackson, John Williams reckons, Jamie McGeever Organizations: Kansas City Fed's, Fed, New, Dallas Fed, TD Securities, York, Dallas and New York Fed, New York Fed, Citi, Reuters, New York Times, Atlanta, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, New York, U.S, Dallas

☆ Goldman sees the Fed cutting rates in first half of next year as inflation falls
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The federal funds rate is currently in a target range between 5%-5.25% , the highest level in more than 22 years. He added that Goldman has "long seen a high threshold for cutting because Fed officials will want to minimize the risk that they could regret cutting if inflation stays too high." The fed funds futures market is assigning about an 80% probability for a first quarter-point rate cut in May 2024, according to CME Group calculations . The year-end implied funds rate is at 4.76%, which points to cuts of 150 basis points. In their latest projections released in June, Fed officials projected a rate of 4.6% by the end of 2024.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Mericle, Mericle Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal, Market, PCE Locations: 2024Q2

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