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The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed 1.2% higher. European shares still advanced 8.7% in the first six months of the year. Miners (.SXPP) were a big drag this quarter, down 9.2% as worries around top metals consumer China weighed heavily on metal prices. The real estate sector (.SX86P) rose 1.7%, buoyed by 4.3% gains in shares of LEG Immobilien (LEGn.DE) after the German firm raised its 2023 outlook. Shares in Adidas (ADSGn.DE) and Puma (PUMG.DE), which had fallen earlier on Nike's (NKE.N) dour forecast, reversed course to rise 2.5% and 3.3%, respectively.
Persons: Melanie Debono, Hubert de, Amruta Khandekar, Matteo Allievi, Varun H, Eileen Soreng, David Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Pantheon, ECB, Capital Economics, MIB, Miners, Adidas, Puma, Thomson Locations: Europe, U.S, Hubert de Barochez, China, Bengaluru, Gdansk
ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a news conference this month that the euro zone's central bank would add 50 basis points to the deposit rate. Economists took her at her word, with all 57 of them polled in the Feb. 10-15 period expecting a deposit rate hike to 3.00% at the March 16 meeting. The ECB will follow up on March's move with a further 25-basis-point lift next quarter, medians showed, giving a terminal deposit rate of 3.25% and a refinancing rate of 3.75%. In response to an additional question, an overwhelming majority - 26 of 28 - said the risk was the terminal deposit rate ends higher than they expect, rather than lower. Markets are currently pricing in a terminal deposit rate of 3.50%.
The latest euro zone growth numbers are out as the ECB considers what to do next. The euro zone beat expectations on Tuesday by posting positive growth in the final quarter of 2022 and reducing fears of a potential regional recession. Preliminary Eurostat data released Tuesday showed that the euro zone grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter. The latest figures come after the euro area posted a 0.3% GDP increase for the third quarter of last year. The euro zone is expected to have grown by 1.9% in the fourth quarter, compared with the same period of 2021, according to the preliminary data.
Business sentiment in the euro area dropped once again ahead of an ECB meeting where President Christine Lagarde is expected to raise rates again. European business activity took another hit in the month of October, reporting the steepest output loss since April 2013 excluding pandemic lockdowns. Firms have been under pressure due to higher inflation, particularly coming from energy costs and wage pressures. Manufacturing activity led the losses, but services output also dropped for a third consecutive month. In terms of national breakdown, business activity in Germany came in at 44.1, versus 45.7 in the previous month.
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