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China growth could slow to 4.5% in 2025, says economist
  + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina growth could slow to 4.5% in 2025, says economistErica Tay of Maybank Investment Banking Group lays out the reasons why China's economic growth could slow to 4.5% next year, citing potential setbacks including trade restrictions and expectations for a deceleration in consumption.
Persons: Erica Tay Organizations: Maybank Investment Banking Group
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's GDP growth will likely stay at about 4.5% for the whole of 2025, economist saysErica Tay of Maybank Investment Banking Group says she disagrees with Chinese officials where growth drivers are concerned.
Persons: Erica Tay Organizations: Maybank Investment Banking Group
Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesChinese investors are looking for more policy direction from China's top economic planning body on Tuesday, when mainland markets return from a week-long holiday. Before the week-long holiday, authorities unveiled a flurry of stimulus policies, including interest rate cuts, lower cash reserve requirements at banks, looser property purchase rules and liquidity support for stock markets. Chinese major indexes have surged over 25% as investors cheer on the barrage of stimulus measures. Last week, China's CSI 300 blue-chip index extended a nine-day winning streak, surging over 8% Monday, before the market closed for a week-long holiday. Now the government needs to add fiscal stimulus to maintain the rally's momentum, said Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of China Market Research Group.
Persons: Qilai Shen, Zheng Shanjie, Erica Tay, Tuesday's presser, Shaun Rein, Rein, Adek Berry, Lynn Song, Song, Gary Ng Organizations: Shoppers, Bloomberg, Getty Images, National Development, Reform, State Council, CSI, SGX FTSE, Maybank Investment Banking Group, Ministry, Finance, China Market Research, AFP, Getty, ING Locations: Nanjing, Shanghai, China, Beijing, Hong Kong, SGX FTSE China, Tuesday's, Xicheng, Greater China, Shenzhen
Economists have long called for an overhaul of the nation's retirement age laws, currently among the world's lowest, which was set in an era of lower life expectancies. Raising the retirement age would help ease local governments' pension pool cash crunch, Sheana Yue, an economist from Oxford Economics said. Still, "more needs to be done to improve retirement adequacy," Maybank's Tay said, while stating that China needs a stronger pension plan and diversified investment avenues to ensure sustainable retirement savings. China's Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has added a few tools for citizens to check their indicated retirement age on its website and mobile app. China may roll out "another round of delay in the late 2030s, especially if China's pension fund balance is tight," Xu cautioned.
Persons: Erica Tay, Tay, Bruce Pang, Tianchen Xu, Xu, Yue, Maybank's Tay Organizations: Getty, Maybank Investment Banking Group, CNBC, Economist Intelligence Unit, Oxford Economics, Academy of Social Sciences, China's Ministry of Human Resources, Social Security Locations: Fuyang, China, JLL, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLaggard Southeast Asian markets will catch up in the second half, analyst saysAnand Pathmakanthan, Maybank Investment Banking Group's regional head of equity research, explains why Southeast Asian stock markets are likely to see significant upside.
Persons: Anand Pathmakanthan Organizations: Maybank Investment Banking
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA U.S. recession alone wouldn't 'dampen the story' of Southeast Asia, Maybank saysThilan Wickramasinghe, head of research for Singapore at Maybank Investment Banking Group, says that's because markets like Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand are "strongly driven by domestic consumption."
Persons: Maybank, Thilan Wickramasinghe Organizations: Singapore, Maybank Investment Banking Group Locations: Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand
Mohd Rasfan | Afp | Getty ImagesSoutheast Asia markets could see a turnaround in 2024 on the back of cheap valuations and potentially high economic growth, after losing some steam last year, according to Maybank. Improving growth, rising exports, a pick up in manufacturing and a better-than-expected outlook by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company last week all mean that Southeast Asia markets are poised for a better year, said Thilan Wickramasinghe, head of research for Singapore at Maybank Investment Banking Group. "Southeast Asia really is a bargain basement of markets, when it comes to valuations," Wickramasinghe told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia." watch nowThe MSCI Southeast Asia index fell a little over 3% in 2023, compared with a more than 20% rise in the broader MSCI World index, whose top five constituents are U.S.-listed technology giants including Apple and Microsoft . The MSCI's Southeast Asia index was trading at about 13.21x its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio, according to data from MSCI, as of Dec. 29, compared with a 16.57x forward P/E for the MSCI World index.
Persons: Mohd Rasfan, Thilan Wickramasinghe, Wickramasinghe, CNBC's Organizations: 51st Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, Afp, Getty, Maybank, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Singapore, Maybank Investment Banking Group, Apple, Microsoft Locations: Philippines, Republic, Korea, Singapore, Asia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMaybank Investment Banking Group's head of research discusses the prospects for ASEAN marketsThilan Wickramasinghe, Maybank Investment Banking Group's head of research, says Singapore's DBS is a good stock to play the artificial intelligence investment theme.
Organizations: Maybank, Banking, ASEAN, Thilan, Maybank Investment Banking, DBS
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMaybank discusses the 'interesting' areas in Southeast Asian marketsAnand Pathmakanthan of Maybank Investment Banking Group says ASEAN will "remain very interesting" for small- and mid-cap stock pickers and names the sectors that will be least affected by external headwinds.
Persons: Maybank, Anand Pathmakanthan Organizations: Maybank Investment Banking Group, ASEAN
Adek Berry | Afp | Getty ImagesIndonesia has ambitious plans to relocate its capital from Jakarta to Nusantara in East Kalimantan. Nusantara National Capital Authority, a government agency charged with planning and constructing the new capital, did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment. The new Presidential Palace under construction at the country's new capital Nusantara. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesA lack of demand for service-led jobs is another challenge Archer predicted. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Persons: Adek Berry, Joko Widodo's, Melinda Martinus, Martinus, Ju Ye Lee, Bagus Saragih, Agung Wicaksono, it's, Wicaksono, Bruno Lanvin, Joko Widodo, Diane Archer, Archer, Lanvin, Maybank's Lee Organizations: Nusantara, Afp, Getty, Indonesia, Cultural Affairs, Yusof, CNBC, Nusantara National Capital Authority, country's Ministry, Public, Agung Wicaksono Nusantara National Capital Authority, Maybank Investment Banking Group, Smart, IMD Business School, Bloomberg, Ciputra, Stockholm Environment Institute, Nusantara . Bloomberg Locations: Jakarta, Nusantara, East Kalimantan, Indonesian, Indonesia, Singapore, Agung Wicaksono, Asia, Pacific, Nusantara ., Stockholm, Diane Archer Stockholm, Kalimantan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMalaysia's 2023 budget: Expect another year of fuel subsidies, Maybank saysSuhaimi Ilias of the Maybank Investment Banking Group says Malaysia's budget this year is likely to retain the "people-friendly" tone of the budget that was tabled in October 2022.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMaybank says it remains 'very positive' on Malaysia's oil and gas sectorAnand Pathmakanthan of Maybank Investment Banking Group discusses the stocks it likes, including Dialog Group and Hibiscus Petroleum.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMonetary policy in Southeast Asia is likely to remain 'fairly moderate,' Maybank saysAnand Pathmakanthan of Maybank Investment Banking Group says countries like the Philippines and Singapore have to move in lockstep with the U.S. Federal Reserve, while Thailand and Malaysia have more leeway in tightening monetary policy.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMalaysia coalitions' party manifestos don't mention anything close to fiscal responsibility: AnalystAnand Pathmakanthan of Maybank Investment Banking Group says it's "very clear" that the country needs higher taxes and should roll back subsidies, but the parties have "very populist manifestos."
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