Former President Donald Trump’s promises that he’ll win New York are more empty bluster than evidence-based prediction. Two statewide Siena polls have also shown Trump performing better than his 2020 vote share in New York State as a whole. But overall, these races include the most competitive around New York State, and all but the 18th are currently represented in Congress by a Republican. Democrats are not concerned about the top of the ticket, but for those down ballot — where Democrats lost five competitive House races here in 2022 — this election is a chance to earn back what was once theirs. “Progressive state issues like bail reform and congestion pricing remain challenging for Democrats in the New York suburbs,” longtime New York Republican operative Matt Coleman said.

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Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Joe Biden’s, Biden, Siena, Elise Stefanik, “ Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, ” Stefanik, He’s, Eric Adams ’, Kathy Hochul’s, Hakeem Jeffries, ” Jeffries, Matt Coleman, Hochul ‘, “ Hochul, “, that’s, Mike Lawler, Anthony D’Esposito, ” Coleman, ” Organizations: Empire, New York Times, Siena College, Trump, New York State, New, NBC News, National Republican, Committee, District, Republican, New York, Democrat, ”, Democratic, Garden, Democrats, NBC, Republicans, New York Republican, Madison, Puerto Ricans, GOP Locations: New York, New York City, Siena, Long, Hudson, Syracuse, New, ” New York, Madison, Brooklyn, Manhattan