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☆ Why Wall Street is so happy to see the job market slowing down
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks soared on Friday after a light April jobs report gave investors hope of a rate cut sooner than later. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The market is currently in a situation where negative economic news is positive for risk assets like stocks. Advertisement"The April jobs report was just what the market ordered," Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise, wrote in a client note. Today's jobs report was the "first material 'downside surprise' in over two years," added Key Wealth CIO George Mateyo in comments to Business Insider.

Persons: —, Russell Price, George Mateyo Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Ameriprise, Business

☆ Key Fed inflation measure rose 2.8% in March from a year ago, more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation showed little signs of letting up in March, with a key barometer the Federal Reserve watches closely showing that price pressures remain elevated. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Including food and energy, the all-items PCE price gauge increased 2.7%, compared to the 2.6% estimate. The Fed targets 2% inflation, a level that core PCE has been above for the past three years. Services prices increased 0.4% on the month while goods were up 0.1%, reflecting a swing back in consumer prices as goods inflation dominated since the early days of the Covid pandemic.

Persons: Dow Jones, George Mateyo Organizations: Reserve, Commerce Department, Dow, Treasury, Key Wealth, Fed, Labor Department

☆ Will there be a recession in 2024? For bottom up investors, it may not matter
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-30 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

After several years of big swings in the market and the U.S. economy, investors may want to buckle down and focus on individual stocks rather than make bold predictions about 2024. A resilient economy in 2023 proved widespread projections of an imminent recession wrong, and the economic consensus is murkier heading into the new year. That scenario of an economy exiting a recession seems far away as the calendar turns to 2024 with the U.S. labor market still growing. And quality stocks showed in 2023 that they can have solid performance even if growth is what leads the market. Shifting to high quality stocks can give investors a measure of defense in their portfolio without piling into cash.

Persons: Tony DeSpirito, DeSpirito, Seder, George Mateyo Organizations: Wall, BlackRock, CNBC, Key Private Bank Locations: U.S

Buoyed by inflation numbers, traders not only expect the central bank to stop further monetary tightening in 2023, they are also betting the Fed would start cutting interest rates early next year. "Inflation has returned to the good old days where in 2019 we saw an average monthly increase of around 0.2% ... The Fed, therefore, might feel it can pause as planned and not raise interest rates in September," said George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led Wall Street lower on Wednesday, with heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA.O) falling 4.7%, followed closely by the other "Magnificent Seven" megacap stocks that drove this year's stock rally. On the earnings front, Walt Disney (DIS.N) rose 3.2% after beating Wall Street estimates for quarterly adjusted profit per share.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, George Mateyo, Mary Daly, Walt Disney, Michael Kors, Tapestry's, Joe Biden, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M Cherian, Shashwat Chauhan, Shubham Batra, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Disney, Dow, Nasdaq, Reserve, Key Private Bank, San Francisco Fed, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Wall, Alibaba, Wednesday, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Bengaluru

CNN —There may not be any lasting major negative ramifications from the surprise US credit rating downgrade by Fitch this week — not for the economy, not for consumers and not for the government’s ability to borrow. Normally, when your credit score as a consumer falls — or your credit rating as a country — there are negative consequences. Here’s why the United States is unlikely to see that kind of impact from the Fitch downgrade. The downgrade wasn’t a huge dropFitch cut its US credit rating to AA+ from what had been a sterling AAA rating. “Fitch’s credit rating is an expression of the probability of a default.

Persons: You’re, Fitch, “, brinkmanship, Marc Goldwein, you’re, ”, Mark Zandi, Yellen, Jamie Dutta, Dutta, ” George Mateyo, ” Mateyo, ” José Torres, Torres, it’s, ” Torres, Uncle Sam, CRFB, – CNN’s Krystal Hur, Allison Morrow Organizations: CNN, Fitch, AAA, Committee, U.S . Treasury, Moody’s, AA, “, Vantage, Key Private Bank, Federal Reserve, Interactive Brokers, Moody’s Investors Service, Treasury, Congressional, Social Security Locations: United States, States, corporates, United

☆ Key Fed inflation rate falls to lowest annual level in nearly 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Headline PCE inflation including food and energy costs also increased 0.2% on the month and rose 3% on an annual basis. So-called core PCE rose 4.1% from a year ago, compared with the estimate for 4.2%. The annual rate was the lowest since September 2021 and marked a decrease from the 4.6% pace in May. Readings such as the consumer price index are showing a slower rise in inflation, while consumer expectations also are also coming back in line with longer-term trends. Along with the inflation data, the Commerce Department said personal income rose 0.3% while spending increased 0.5%.

Persons: Dow Jones, George Mateyo, Jerome Powell Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Markets, Treasury, Key Private Bank, Fed

☆ Inflation rose just 0.2% in June, less than expected as consumers get a break from price increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

On a monthly basis, the index, which measures a broad swath of prices for goods and services, rose 0.2%. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 4.8% from a year ago and 0.2% on a monthly basis. The annual rate was the lowest since October 2021. Food prices rose just 0.1% on the month while used vehicle prices, a primary source for the inflation surge in the early part of 2022, declined 0.5%. The easing in the CPI helped boost worker paychecks: Real average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation rose 0.2% from May to June and increased 1.2% on a year-over-year basis.

Persons: George Mateyo, Mateyo, Lisa Sturtevant Organizations: Federal Reserve, Key Private Bank, of Labor Statistics, Bright MLS, Fed, Dow Jones, Treasury, Traders, CPI

☆ The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge shows prices rose just 0.1% last month
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Minneapolis CNN —The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge cooled off last month, and consumers reined in some spending as the economy slows, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department. Personal spending ticked up by just 0.1%, a more moderate pace than April’s revised 0.6% growth rate. When adjusting for inflation, consumer spending was flat. Consumers refill the coffersThe data in recent months shows a gradual cooling in consumer spending, Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told CNN. “There were no fireworks within the Fed’s favorite inflation report today,” George Mateyo, chief investment officer for KeyBank, wrote in a statement.

Persons: Diane Swonk, ”, Gregory Daco, “ It’s, Friday’s, Abby Omodunbi, Janet Yellen, Yellen, ” Yellen, ” George Mateyo, KeyBank, Swonk, it’s, we’ve Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Commerce Department, CNN, “, PNC, Fed, Transportation Locations: Minneapolis, EY, New Orleans

☆ Stock market news: The Fed meets next week. What can investors expect?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The S&P 500 Index last week entered a bull market, meaning that it notched a 20% rally from its low in October. Moreover, investors appeared calmer than they have in years, after the United States suspended the debt ceiling in time to avoid a default, allowing investors to breathe a sigh of relief. The May Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports, two key inflation prints, are also due the days that the Fed meets. But the United States could still suffer a downgrade to its credit rating, even though it avoided losing its ability to make payments on time. Tuesday: Consumer Price Index report for May and NFIB small business optimism index.

Persons: CNN — Stocks, Price, ”, JJ Kinahan, there’s, Karim El Nokali, Jerome Powell, ” El Nokali, —, Joe Biden, Benjamin Jeffery, Patrick Klein, ” Josh Lipsky, it’s, Olivier d’Assier, “ It’s, George Mateyo Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Nasdaq, United, Fed, IG North America, Fitch, AAA, BMO Capital Markets, Franklin, GeoEconomics, International Monetary Fund, Treasury Department, US Treasury, Key Private Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Federal, University of Michigan Locations: United States, US

☆ Don’t expect the stock markets to rejoice about the debt ceiling deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —You’d expect the stock market to surge after the White House and House Republicans reached a tentative deal to raise the debt ceiling, But markets may have other plans. The stock market, for the most part, has been ignoring the serious risks associated with the United States defaulting on its debt. Even if Congress passes a bill to raise the debt ceiling and President Joe Biden signs it, it could take months before stocks and other financial markets move on. That will temporarily suck some liquidity out of the stock market, he said. A look back at the 2011 debt ceiling crisisIn 2011, lawmakers came to an agreement on raising the debt limit just hours before the United States would have defaulted.

☆ Inflation rose 0.4% in April and 4.7% from a year ago, according to key gauge for the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Price increases were spread almost evenly, with goods rising 0.3% and services up 0.4%. On an annual basis, goods prices increased 2.1% and services rose by 5.5%, a further indication that the U.S. was tilting back toward a services-focused economy. The report showed that spending jumped 0.8% for the month, while personal income accelerated 0.4%. Including food and energy, headline PCE also rose 0.4% and was up 4.4% from a year ago, higher than the 4.2% rate in March. Still, Citigroup economists expect the Fed to raise its forecasts for inflation and GDP when it releases its updates at the June meeting.

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