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After last week's steep sell-off, oil prices suggest traders are pricing in a demand slowdown that is similar to a mild recession, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis. Crude oil futures have declined precipitously in September, with Brent and U.S. crude oil on Friday posting their worst weeks since October 2023. Morgan Stanley is forecasting a surplus of about 1 million barrels per day in 2025. Demand Morgan Stanley looked for similar patterns in the past 35 years of Brent oil price data. Over the past five U.S. recessions, these stockpiles built by 150 million to 220 million barrels.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan, Martijn, Brent Organizations: Brent Locations: U.S, Brent, OPEC, Canada, Brazil, Guyana
Oil demand growth is decelerating, strategist says
  + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOil demand growth is decelerating, strategist saysMartijn Rats, global commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley, says there is no impact on oil prices from geopolitical risks.
Persons: Martijn, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Email
Crude oil futures rose Wednesday as traders bet on tightening supplies later in the year. Fuel demand increased by 94,000 bpd to about nine million bpd total. The investment bank sees a 1.2 million bpd deficit in the third quarter, which could push Brent prices to $86 per barrel. OPEC, meanwhile, stuck to its demand growth forecast of 2.2 million bpd due to solid global economic growth of 2.8% this year. Those forecasts clashed with a bearish outlook from the International Energy Agency, which sees weakening demand and rising supplies.
Persons: Martijn, Morgan Stanley, Brent Organizations: Department of Energy, U.S, Oil, Federal Reserve, International Energy Agency Locations: U.S
A robust oil outlook on stronger-than-expected demand this year should provide a "hot summer" for energy stocks, according to Morgan Stanley. The investment bank has upgraded the energy sector to "attractive" as crude oil demand forecasts have improved on better-than-expected growth in the major economies. Morgan Stanley's top picks to play the oil rally are BP , TotalEnergies and Repsol . Strong demand combined with geopolitical risk should support Brent prices of $94 a barrel by the end of the summer, according to Rats and his colleagues. BP YTD mountain BP shares year to date BP stands out with a compelling distribution yield of nearly 11%, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Martijn, Brent, Morgan Organizations: BP Locations: Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOil prices could rise more than expected this summer, Morgan Stanley strategist saysMartijn Rats, chief commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley, says oil prices could rise more than expected this summer as demand comes roaring back.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Martijn Rats
Investors could be caught off guard by the strength of an oil price rally this summer, according to Morgan Stanley 's Martijn Rats. Brent futures have largely been trading in a narrow $75 to $85 interval since the start of the year. "There is a view in the market that the non-OPEC producers can meet all of the demand growth this year and therefore there isn't much incremental room for OPEC oil and that means you rely on continued OPEC cuts," Rats said. "Now, they are doing that, but people think that that dynamic for now puts a little bit of a cap on the price. I think the summer could be tighter than people expect but this is the dynamic that currently exists."
Persons: Morgan Stanley, We've Organizations: Federal Reserve, Brent, U.S, West Texas Locations: London
(This is CNBC Pro's live coverage of Tuesday's analyst calls and Wall Street chatter. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank downgraded Peloton to hold from buy, slashing its price target on the stock. ET: Deutsche Bank downgrades Peloton on challenging near-term outlook Deutsche Bank analyst Lee Horowitz downgraded Peloton to hold from buy Tuesday, slashing their price target to $4 from $13 per share. Rats gave a €71.0, or $75.84, price target on the stock, implying shares could jump 14%. Ralph Lauren (price target: $130, pointing to 13% upside): The analyst noted Ralph Lauren's "consistent execution" should allow the stock to hold its premium valuation relative to peers.
Persons: Vivek Arya, Arya, — Pia Singh, Lee Horowitz, Horowitz, Peloton's, Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley, Martijn Rats, Steven Shemesh, Shemesh, Lowe's, Ralph Lauren, Michael Binetti, Binetti, Ralph Lauren —, TJX, Ralph Lauren's, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, ISI, Nike, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets, Semiconductor, EV, BofA Bank of America, Carbide, Silicon Carbide, TAM, Depot, PCE, TJX, Athletic Locations: France
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIs there a need for oil demand destruction? We're 'not quite there,' Morgan Stanley saysMartijn Rats, global commodities strategist and head of the European energy team in equity research at Morgan Stanley, speaks to CNBC's Dan Murphy at ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi about the outlook for the oil market in 2024.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Martijn, CNBC's Dan Murphy Locations: ADIPEC, Abu Dhabi
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere could be a 'significant slowdown' in global oil demand growth in 2024: Morgan StanleyMartijn Rats of Morgan Stanley discusses the outlook for oil markets and says "this year is probably the last year of the … Covid recovery in demand."
Persons: Morgan Stanley Martijn, Morgan Stanley
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOPEC+ cut signals underlying weakness in the market, analyst saysMartijn Rats, chief commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley, speaks to CNBC about OPEC's surprise oil production cut.
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