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Powell noted that the unemployment rate has been rising but has flattened out in recent months and remains low by historical standards. Specifically, he said the labor market is holding up well despite disappointing job growth in October largely that he attributed to storm damage in the Southeast and labor strikes. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. Powell added that the calculus of getting the move to neutral rate will be tricky. The Fed also has been allowing proceeds from its bond holdings to roll off its mammoth balance sheet each month.
Persons: Powell, Nonfarm, Jerome Powell Organizations: Traders, Federal, Committee Locations: Dallas
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Powell, in yesterday's press conference, maintained that "the election will have no effect on our policy decisions." According to the futures market, just 30.4% of traders think the Fed will cut rates again in January. "By December, we'll have more data, I guess one more employer report, two more inflation reports and lots of other data," Powell said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Caballero, Reynolds, Jim Reid, Trump, Scott Helfstein, Powell, we'll, that's, , Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring Organizations: Federal Reserve, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Deutsche, Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Congress, Fed Locations: Washington , DC
Trump took a dim view of the Powell Fed during his first term in office, calling policymakers "boneheads" and once compared Powell to a golfer who couldn't putt. Powell, who was nominated by Trump in November 2017 and took office the following February, largely shrugged off the criticism then, and he again deflected Thursday. However, dealing with the ramifications of a Trump presidency will be almost unavoidable for the Fed leader. LaVorgna has a unique perspective on the situation, having served as chief economist for the National Economic Council under Trump. Trump historically has favored lower rates, though that too could change if the Fed cuts and inflation rises.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Donald Trump, Trump, Powell, I'm, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Lavorgna Organizations: Federal, Getty, firebrand Republican, Powell Fed, Trump, Fed, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, stoke
Kent Nishimura | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Powell, in yesterday's press conference, maintained that "the election will have no effect on our policy decisions." "By December, we'll have more data, I guess one more employer report, two more inflation reports and lots of other data," Powell said. — CNBC's Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound and Alex Harring contributed to this report.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Jim Reid, Trump, Scott Helfstein, Powell, we'll, that's, , Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring Organizations: FTSE, Federal, CNBC, Deutsche, Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Congress, Fed Locations: GDAXI, Washington, Washington , DC
Fed Chair Jay Powell said Thursday that he would not resign if president-elect Donald Trump asked him to. Asked whether he would step down amid chatter that Trump's advisors had suggested he do so, Powell replied, "No." Trump himself nominated Powell as Federal Reserve chairman in 2017 in his first administration. Powell made the comments during his regularly scheduled remarks following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's latest statement on interest rate policy. Representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Persons: Jay Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, Trump, readying, ” Trump, Scott Bessent, Kevin Warsh Organizations: Federal, Trump, Bloomberg, Chicago Economic, Reuters, CNN, NBC News, CNBC
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. AdvertisementAnother interest-rate cut is headed Americans' way. On Thursday, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut after a 50-basis-point cut in September. AdvertisementGiven the lag in monetary policy, the interest-rate cuts won't give Americans immediate relief on their credit cards, housing, or car loans. Still, some Democratic lawmakers urged the Fed to implement another 50-basis-point cut to give Americans more financial relief.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, Matthew Ryan, Jerome Powell, Milton, Helene —, Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, Powell Organizations: Reserve, Service, Federal, Market, Trump, Boeing, Fed Locations: Sens
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
watch nowThe Federal Reserve approved its second consecutive interest rate cut Thursday, moving at a less aggressive pace than before but continuing its efforts to rightsize monetary policy. Among them was an altered view in how it assesses the effort to bring down inflation while supporting the labor market. The statement slightly downgraded the labor market, saying "conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low." Generally, the labor market has held up well. An acceleration in economic activity under Trump could persuade the Fed to cut rates less, depending on how inflation reacts.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell, nonfarm, Donald Trump, Trump, Powell, Pace Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, Gross, Atlanta Fed, Trump Locations: Tuesday's
Reporters asked Fed Chair Jerome Powell whether he would resign if President-elect Trump asked him to. Powell responded with one word: "No." Trump has been critical of Powell, but the law does not permit a president to fire a Fed official without cause. AdvertisementFederal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has no plans to leave the central bank prematurely under President-elect Donald Trump. "We don't guess, we don't speculate, and we don't assume," Powell said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Trump, Powell, , Donald Trump, Biden, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, Federal, Market, Trump, Fed, Street, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Congress
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the Nov. 6-7, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee meeting at William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 7, 2024. ET, market pricing pointed toward a 67% chance of another quarter-point cut in December and a 33% chance of a pause that month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a quarter-point December rate cut rose to more than 70% following the meeting, while the chances of a pause slipped to nearly 29%. Future rate probabilities found in the CME FedWatch Tool are derived from trading in 30-day fed funds futures contracts. Meanwhile, the odds that the Federal Reserve would skip an interest rate cut in January was around 71%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Federal Locations: Washington ,, U.S
The Federal Reserve would likely respond to inflation by raising interest rates to curb demand. In an economic chain reaction, households would then pay higher interest rates on borrowing of all kinds as the Fed moves to tame that newly rekindled inflation. That led to the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising, meaning homebuyers are on track to see higher interest rates on loans. An analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center found that Trump's policies would decrease posttax incomes by an average of $1,800 in 2025. Trump's win is also expected to influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions on interest rates.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Trump, Ramping, Trump's, it's, Jerome Powell, Joseph Stiglitz Organizations: Federal, Service, Biden, US Census Bureau, Trump, Peterson, Center, American Progress, Tax Foundation, Fed Locations: China
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. It follows a 50-basis-point rate cut in September — the first cut in four years. CME FedWatch, which forecasts interest rate changes based on market predictions, estimated an all-but-certain 25 basis point cut as of Wednesday afternoon. "Borrowers should understand that 'falling interest rates' are not the same as 'low interest rates,'" Greg McBride, Bankrate's chief financial analyst, said in a commentary. AdvertisementWhat are your financial plans if the Fed makes another rate cut?
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, Jerome Powell, Powell, Helene, Milton, Cory Stahle, Julia Pollak, Greg McBride Organizations: Federal, Service, FedWatch, Boeing, BLS, Federal Reserve, PCE, Fed, asheffey
The Federal Reserve likely will stick to the business at hand when it wraps up its meeting Thursday with another interest rate cut, but will have its eye on the future against a backdrop that suddenly has gotten a lot more complicated. The focus, though, will turn to what's ahead for Chair Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues as they navigate a shifting economy — and the political earthquake of Donald Trump's stunning victory in the presidential race. So while the immediate action will be to stay the course and enact the cut, which equals 25 basis points, the market's attention likely will turn to what the committee and Powell have to say about the future. The fed funds rate, which sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but often influences consumer debt as well, is currently targeted in a range between 4.75%-5.0%. Market pricing currently favors another quarter-point cut in December, followed by a January pause then multiple reductions through 2025.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Donald Trump's, Powell, Krishna Guha, Guha Organizations: Federal Reserve, Evercore ISI
Here's how Bank of America suggests trading a variety of Election Day outcomes. Split Republican control A Trump White House with a largely Democratic Congress is overall neutral for equities, Kwon said. Split Democratic control The status quo would be maintained with a Harris White House and a Republican Congress, Kwon said. Over the past seven election cycles, the two-week price direction for stocks was identical to one day after election day every single time. Outside of the election, Kwon said that the Fed could have ample reason to cut further.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris Organizations: Bank of America, Trump, Republican, Trump White House, Democratic, Harris White, Federal
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. It follows a 50-basis-point rate cut in September — the first cut in four years. CME FedWatch, which forecasts interest rate changes based on market predictions, estimated an all-but-certain 25 basis point cut as of Friday afternoon. Advertisement"Borrowers should understand that 'falling interest rates' are not the same as 'low interest rates,'" Greg McBride, Bankrate's chief financial analyst, said in a commentary. What are your financial plans if the Fed makes another rate cut?
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, Helene, Milton, Cory Stahle, Julia Pollak, Greg McBride Organizations: Federal, Service, FedWatch, Boeing, BLS, Federal Reserve, PCE, Fed, asheffey
Bonds have sold off as traders reassess the path of Fed Reserve rate cuts. AdvertisementThe bond market is in sell-off mode as traders reassess the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. That would be a big surprise to traders, with the market pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis point interest rate cut from the Fed next month. AdvertisementFed officials, for their part, have indicated they're likely to move cautiously, though more rate cuts are still their base case. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she expects interest rates will fall "gradually," and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid endorsed a "cautious and gradual" approach to cutting interest rates.
Persons: Bonds, , Donald Trump, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, Trump Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Bloomberg, Bond, Treasury Bond ETF, Federal, Market, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, House Locations: Atlanta
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose about 4 basis points to 4.112%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up about 2 basis points to 3.979%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.11% on Monday as investors awaited a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are all expected to deliver remarks on Monday as investors await clues on the Fed's monetary policy outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee took the unusual step last month of lowering its baseline interest rate by a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, to a target range of 4.75% to 5%.
Persons: Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari, Jeff Schmid, Mary Daly, Christopher Waller, Waller, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, U.S, Dallas, San Francisco Fed, Market Locations: U.S, Minneapolis, Kansas
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineDespite markets falling Tuesday, there's still plenty to like about their current state. Weighed down by ASML's 16% dive and a report by Bloomberg on potential AI-chip export controls, semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and AMD fell 4.7% and 5.2% respectively. Still, investors are the most bullish in four years, according to the October BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.
Persons: DJI, Spencer Platt, there's, They're, Michael Hartnett, Mary Daly, who's, Dow, Piper, Craig Johnson, , Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Alex Harring Organizations: AMD, New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, ASML's, Bloomberg, Nvidia, Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Survey, U.S . Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Federal Locations: U.S, Beijing
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Breather from rally U.S. markets fell Monday, weighed down by a drop in semiconductor stocks and a 8.1% slide in UnitedHealth . Tech stocks fell 6.36%, while telecoms stocks rose 1.97%. Indeed, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who's a member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, noted that the central bank is "a long way from where [rates are] likely to settle."
Persons: ASML, there's, They're, Michael Hartnett, Mary Daly, who's, Dow, Piper, Craig Johnson, , Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Alex Harring Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, UBS, Tech, ASML's, Bloomberg, Nvidia, AMD, Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Survey, U.S . Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Federal Locations: New York City, U.S, Tuesday's, Netherlands, ., Beijing
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Monday signaled that future interest rate cuts will be less aggressive than the big move in September as he expressed concern that the economy could still be running at a hotter-than-desired pace. The Federal Open Market Committee at its September meeting took the unusual step of lowering its baseline interest rate by a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, to a target range of 4.75%-5.0%. Along with the cut, officials indicated the likelihood of another half point lopped off in the final two meetings of 2024, along with another full percentage point of cuts in 2025. In the final revision for second-quarter growth, the Commerce Department also punched up the level of gross domestic income gain to 3.4%, an adjustment of 2.1 percentage points from the previous estimate and closer in line with GDP. “These revisions suggest that the economy is much stronger than previously thought, with little indication of a major slowdown in economic activity,” Waller said.
Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Waller, Organizations: Federal, Stanford University, The, Fed, Commerce Department
Market sentiment can be gauged by following options traders' actions and fair-value gaps. Goldman Sachs predicts a relief rally for 18 stocks with positive options market sentiment. But if you get it right, you're rewarded with outsize returns. Not only that, but analysts at Goldman Sachs have found that the options market implies average earnings-day moves of 6% in either direction for S&P 500 stocks. Below is the list of 18 stocks which includes their options-implied stock move and the strike price for each contract.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , outsize, Goldman, John Marshall Organizations: Service, Federal
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "I am totally comfortable with skipping [rate cuts for] a meeting if the data suggests that's appropriate," Bostic told The Wall Street Journal in an interview Thursday. The data suggests so. "This choppiness to me is along the lines of maybe we should take a pause in November," said Bostic, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Persons: SeongJoon Cho, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Joseph Brusuelas, Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim Organizations: AMD, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Federal, Market, RSM Locations: Pike, Seattle , Washington, US
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "I am totally comfortable with skipping [rate cuts for] a meeting if the data suggests that's appropriate," Bostic told The Wall Street Journal in an interview Thursday. The data suggests so. But Bostic acknowledged it's important to see whether individual data points cohere into a larger pattern, or if they're just "janky," as Bostic put it.
Persons: Justin Sullivan, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Joseph Brusuelas, Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim Organizations: Getty, CNBC, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Federal, Market, RSM Locations: San Rafael , California
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to a news conference following the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on September 18, 2024 in Washington, DC. This week's inflation data provided more evidence that the Federal Reserve is nearing its objective, fresh on the heels of the central bank's dramatic interest rate cut just a few weeks ago. Consumer and producer price indexes for September both came in around expectations, showing that inflation is drifting down to the central bank's 2% target. The Wall Street investment bank on Friday projected that the Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price index for September will show a 12-month inflation rate of 2.04% when it is released later this month. The Fed prefers the PCE as its inflation gauge though it uses a variety of inputs to make decisions.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Washington , DC, Commerce, Fed, PCE, Chicago Fed, CNBC Locations: Washington ,
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., September 18, 2024. REUTERS/Tom BrennerFalling interest rates are usually good news for banks, especially when the cuts aren't a harbinger of recession. That's because lower rates will slow the migration of money that's happened over the past two years as customers shifted cash out of checking accounts and into higher-yielding options like CDs and money market funds. When the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point last month, it signaled a turning point in its stewardship of the economy and telegraphed its intention to cut rates by another two full percentage points, according to the central bank's projections, boosting prospects for banks. The bank is expected to report $4.01 per share in earnings, a 7.4% drop from the year-earlier period.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Tom Brenner, Chris Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Locations: Washington , U.S
"A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization." Since the meeting, economic indicators have showed that the labor market is perhaps stronger than officials favoring the 50 basis point move had expected. The minutes noted that the vote to approve the 50 basis point cut came "in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks" against the labor market. Though the document was more detailed about the debate over whether to approve the 25 basis point cut, there was not as much information about why voters supported the larger move. Since the Fed meeting, both the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields have surged about 40 basis points.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Market, Treasury Locations: WASHINGTON
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