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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe'll remain in goldilocks zone 'a little bit more', says Universa Investment's Mark SpitznagelMark Spitznagel, Universa Investments founder and CIO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the possibility of a 'black swan' event, the hedge fund founder's outlook for the economy next year, and much more.
Persons: Universa, Mark Spitznagel Mark Spitznagel Organizations: Universa Investments
Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. "The backdrop is already a more volatile FX market," Webb said, comparing markets now to when Trump was inaugurated in January 2017. But market volatility is at its lowest level since July, based on the VIX Index, Wall Street's favorite measure of uneasiness. Universa has demand for its strategy, Yarckin said, but it's coming from "a small subset of people." "I wonder if this is being underestimated" by the markets, Webb said.
Persons: Warren Buffett, , Donald Trump, Jonathan Webb, Webb, Trump, Wall, Brandon Yarckin, Universa, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Yarckin, Simon Aninat, haven't, Mark Spitznagel, Aninant, Mattias Eriksson, Eriksson, Elon Musk, It's Organizations: Universa Investments, Service, Twitter, C8 Technologies, Jefferies, Business, Oracle Locations: Omaha
"The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb says he's focused on hedging against a market collapse. He said the market is flashing parallels to prior crashes, noting that it is the most fragile in 20 years. He pointed to risks like high debt levels and "crazy" stock prices in an interview with Bloomberg. Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan," the famed treatise on the risks related to improbable events, aired concerns over the state of the market in a recent interview with Bloomberg. Universa Investments is technically "market blind," Taleb said, as the firm employs an investment strategy that disregards short-term market forecasts.
Persons: Swan, Nassim Taleb, he's, , Taleb, Mark Spitznagel Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Universa
He criticizes the US for high debt and low growth, leading a fragile financial system. He highlighted the four categories of debt-based countries: those with low growth and high or low debt, and those with high growth and high or low debt. The US is in the category of low growth and high debt. However, if a country accumulates high debt, then continued growth is required to absorb it, he noted. At present, Taleb doesn't believe that the ballooning debt could be solved politically or by increased demand for US bonds.
Persons: Nassim Taleb, , Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Scott Patterson, Patterson, Taleb, It's, Brandon Yarckin, isn't, Mark Spitznagel Organizations: Service, Universa Investments, Bank Locations: Russia, US
Spitznagel thinks they should focus instead on lagging drivers that could spur a sharp stock downturn. Advertisement"Black Swan" investor Mark Spitznagel thinks that the stock market's streak of record highs is distracting from a more jarring reality that could come by year-end. In a recent interview with Bloomberg TV, he said investors are currently enjoying a market that's in a "Goldilocks zone." "When the yield curve disinverts and then unverts, the clock starts ticking and that's when you enter black swan territory," Spitznagel told Bloomberg. He has warned of a stock market crash since January 2023, and back in July, he said the market's yearslong rally has become the "greatest bubble in human history," and its bursting would make for a recession.
Persons: Stocks, they've, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, , That's, capitalizes Organizations: Service, Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg, Universa Investments
The VIX, Wall Street's go-to snapshot of market volatility, is at its highest point since the onset of the pandemic. And hedge funds are sifting through the wreckage, with some looking to survive and others planning to pounce. In any market meltdown, there are clear winners and losers given the strategies and positioning of different firms. The yen carry trade has also likely wrong-footed many macro funds, several industry veterans said. It also slowed dealmaking, annoying private equity investors whose capital was tied up in older vintage funds.
Persons: , Wall Street's, there's, allocators, Harvey Schwartz, Carlyle Organizations: Service, Business, Citadel, Eisler Capital, Universa Investments Locations: Europe, Asia, New York, London
NANTERRE, France — Katie Ledecky is rewriting the history books. On Saturday night, she took gold in the women’s 800-meter freestyle, her fourth consecutive Olympic gold medal in the event. It marks the first time a woman ever won four gold medals in the same event and also brought Ledecky’s career total up to nine Olympic gold medals, which ties Soviet gymnast Larisa Latynina for the most all-time by a female Olympian. Her nine Olympic gold medals are tied for second-most for an American athlete with swimmer Mark Spitz and track and field athlete Carl Lewis. Michael Phelps holds the record for the most Olympic gold medals for an American athlete with 23.
Persons: Katie Ledecky, Larisa Latynina, Ledecky, Paige Madden, she’ll, ” Ledecky, I’ve, 🇺🇸👑, mpics & Locations: NANTERRE, France, Soviet, Los Angeles
NANTERRE, France — Léon Marchand held up four fingers as the crowd roared one final time for its hero of the Paris Games, one for each of the Olympic gold medals he earned this week. The young Frenchman achieved what once seemed like an impossible dream: four Olympic gold medals in four individual Olympic events at his home Games. AdvertisementMarchand joined Michael Phelps and Mark Spitz as the only male swimmers to win four individual gold medals in the same Games. In Friday’s 200-meter individual medley final, Marchand touched the wall 1:54.06 to earn gold and complete his golden sweep, cementing a legacy in France. Then, the historic double-gold night of the 200-meter butterfly and the 200-meter breaststroke that was straight out of a Hollywood movie script.
Persons: France — Léon Marchand, Frenchman, Marchand, Michael Phelps, Mark Spitz, Great Britain’s Duncan Scott, China’s Shun Wang, King Léon, LEON MARCHAND Organizations: Paris Games, Games Locations: NANTERRE, France
It didn't take long to remember what a second Donald Trump presidential term would mean for the stock market, did it? He talked about how interested he was in the stock market and that he wanted his kids to learn so they watched my show together. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
Persons: Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Sen, JD Vance, Mary Elizabeth Lease, Joe Biden, Biden's, Trump, Biden, let's, Kamala Harris, Doug Emhoff, , Harris, that's, Lina Kahn, Jonathan Kanter, Vance, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, Bristol Myers, ., Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Chris Kleponis Organizations: Republican, Populist Party, Democratic Party, Devices, Nvidia, Biden, White House, Democratic, White, Big Tech, Federal Trade Commission, Biden Democrat, Trump, Nasdaq, Street, Universa Investments, Yahoo, America, Microsoft, Google, Palo Alto Networks, Palo Alto, Starbucks, Apple, PepsiCo, Myers Squibb, Pepsi, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, US, Afp, Getty Locations: Ohio, China, U.S, Taiwan, idiocy, Bristol, . Horton, Washington ,, Pennsylvania
Bearish investor Mark Spitznagel predicts stocks could soon lose over half their value in a steep sell-off. His fund, Universa Investments, has made billions from past stock market crises. AdvertisementBlack Swan investor Mark Spitznagel says the stock market is heading for a historic sell-off, reiterating an uber-bearish warning for investors who are getting comfortable with steady stock gains amid the frenzy for AI. Spitznagel said the years-long rally in the stock market amounts to the "greatest bubble in human history" in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal. He made billions during the 2008 stock market crash, the 2015 Flash Crash, and at the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020.
Persons: Mark Spitznagel, , Spitznagel, it's, he's Organizations: Universa Investments, Service, Wall Street, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Universa
Today's big story examines how recruitment for AI talent is ramping up in the tech industry and on Wall Street . AdvertisementEager to understand how to leverage the tech, companies are racing to scoop up AI specialists. But Big Tech companies aren't just competing with each other. With so many venture capitalists eager to fund AI ideas , some AI talent are starting their own companies. Businesses are already fighting the rule, but if it survives the courts it could mean even more movement of AI talent.
Persons: , We've, we've, Justin Sullivan, Chelsea Jia Feng, Eager, Kali Hays, Ellen Thomas, Banks, it's, Getty, Sean Gladwell, Olga Pyrkina, Tyler Le, Amy Hood, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Johannes Eisele, Swan, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, David Einhorn, there's, Dimitrios Kambouris, Leon Neal, Abanti Chowdhury, Bill Gates, Gates, BI Gates, Satya Nadella, Zs, Herman Miller Eames, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Business, Service, Getty Images, Anadolu Agency, Big Tech, Johannes, Getty, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Research, Capital Economics, Greenlight, Staff, Microsoft, BI, Paramount Locations: California, AFP, America, New York, London, Chicago
Investors should be wary of coming Fed rate cuts, Black Swan investor Mark Spitznagel warned. That's because the Fed is only cutting rates in response to a weakening economy, Spitznagel told Reuters last week. The US could see a recession and major stock crash before rates head lower, he predicted. That's because the Fed is only likely to ease monetary policy when the economy is slammed with a recession and the market is flailing, according to famous "Black Swan" investor Mark Spitznagel. "There are lag effects when you reset interest rates like we had."
Persons: Black Swan, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, , Swan, Nassim Taleb Organizations: Reuters, Service, Federal Reserve, Universa, Federal, National Association of Business Economics, Investor
In today's big story, we're looking at why Zyn nicotine pouches are becoming the go-to alternative for workers looking for a boost . Zyn, a brand of nicotine pouch, has quickly gained a loyal following among some workers looking for a boost during the day. There was a 62% year-over-year bump in the amount of flavored nicotine pouches shipped in the US in 2023. Containers of "Zyn" nicotine pouches. He said the nicotine pouches were too accessible and gave him migraines.
Persons: , Michael M, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Sarah Jackson, Tim Paradis, Sarah, Tim, it's, Zyn, Tim he'll, vaping, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, Samantha Lee, Stanley, Max, Bob Jordan, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Getty, Wall Street, Republican, New York Stock Exchange, UBS, Electronic Arts, Verizon, Ford, Reading, Airlines, Boeing Locations: Copenhagen, New, Wall St , New York, USA, Oxford, New York, London
The fund made headlines for returning 4,144% amid the 2020 stock market crash, an example of a so-called black-swan event. And when the market moves one way, we think that's going to happen forever." Spitznagel's main don'ts to mom-and-pop investors are; don't chase the market, don't time the market, don't place too much confidence in its current direction, and don't make decisions based on short-term Fed moves. Instead, build a portfolio that's positioned so that if the market goes down by 50%, you won't be squeezed. And if the market is up 50%, don't be the sucker that's going to buy up there", Spitznagel said.
Persons: Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, Ray Dalio, We're Organizations: Universa Investments, Business
A "Black Swan" investor says there's a huge debt bubble and the Fed's policies will end in disaster. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. I don't think that should be a controversial statement." "Treasuries are not a safe haven, they're very much a hopeful haven. I think that they're pretty cheap right now, frankly, so I don't want to trash them too much.
Persons: there's, Mark, Treasuries, Spitznagel, , Mark Spitznagel, it's, They've, It's, Peter Lynch, I'm Organizations: Service, Universa Investments, Yahoo Finance
Burry recently compared the S&P 500's rebound to its short-lived rally during the dot-com crash. The benchmark S&P 500 index gained 6.2% in January, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11%, marking its best January performance since 2001. Burry has been pouring cold water on the stock rally this year. The implication was that the S&P 500's 17% rally since last October's low could also prove short-lived. GMO's Jeremy Grantham recently declared the S&P 500 could plummet 50% in a worst-case scenario, while Universa Investments's Mark Spitznagel diagnosed the "greatest tinderbox-timebomb in financial history."
Hello 10 Things on Wall Street readers! As you might know, for the last few years Insider has been highlighting some of the most talented young people on Wall Street. Take a look at all the photos from Insider's celebration of Wall Street's rising stars here. A decade after the private-equity giant helped launch Athene Holdings, more private money managers are moving into insurance as they hunt for higher yields, the Wall Street Journal reports. Adam Berry, head of US loan trading is leaving Wall Street to join the Philadelphia Eagles, according to Bloomberg.
No risk, no reward. While Mark Spitznagel wouldn’t disagree, a letter from the star hedge-fund manager seen by The Wall Street Journal has some striking insights on both fronts. A protégé of “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb noted on the occasion of his fund’s 15-year anniversary that using it to hedge a standard stock portfolio would have enhanced long-run returns through its bets on extremely bearish events.
How to Survive the Next Market Crash
  + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Spencer Jakab | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve might be in the process of driving the stock market over a cliff by tightening into a recession. That is one potential scenario envisioned by fund manager Mark Spitznagel , who actually thinks the Fed will blink soon on rate increases. He isn’t explicitly betting on either outcome, but would likely find himself in the headlines again if the more dire one comes true: The last time there was a contraction in the U.S. economy his firm, Universa Investments, earned an astounding 4,000% return in a matter of weeks. The time before that, during the financial crisis, he more than doubled clients’ money even as the value of stocks was cut in half. In between those two downturns, Universa made $1 billion in a single day during the “flash crash.”
But the crypto-heavy conference meant one hedge fund wasn't in attendance. Universa Investments, a black swan fund that specializes in purchasing protection against major market crashes, skipped out this year. The Miami-based hedge fund, which has $15.5 billion in assets under management, made headlines in the past after its flagship Black Swan Protection Protocol fund reportedly returned 4,144% amid the stock market crash of 2020. Many crypto investors may perceive these digital assets, bitcoin specifically, as a hedge against the devaluation of currencies. You need to have a clear thesis for why you're picking crypto assets over a tech stock, like Microsoft for example, he said.
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