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But it was the repeated use of the word holistic - or "bütüncül" - by the former Goldman Sachs banker and Turkey's first female central bank chief that caught most of the attention. "We are making the gradual and steady rate hikes more holistic and stronger through quantitative tightening and selective credit tightening," Erkan told the news conference. "Unless the credit and monetary tightening really kick in, investors would expect the central bank to hike more aggressively," he said. "She clearly wants to be the face of Turkish monetary policy making," said Neuberger Berman's Nazli. "We saw a person who seems to be capable of being a central bank governor, compared to previous governors, but cautious."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, policymaker Mehmet Simsek, Tim Ash, Erdogan, Ash, Marek Drimal, Neuberger Berman's Nazli, swerved, Emre Akcakmak, Karin Strohecker, Libby George, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Turkey's, Ministry, BlueBay Asset Management, Societe Generale, East Capital, Thomson Locations: Rosario, London

☆ Analysis: Investors lament lost opportunity after unconvincing Turkish rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Murad Sezer/IllustrationLONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Foreign investors hoping for a game-changing rate hike from Turkey's newly appointed central bank chief said Thursday's disappointing move to a key rate of just 15% could keep some money on the sidelines. "They lost one perfect chance to demonstrate that they mean business," said Viktor Szabo, emerging markets investment director with Abrdn. But analysts said that after Thursday's decision, Erkan and Simsek would need to work even harder to prove the country had indeed shifted course. Already in the week to June 16, foreign investor holdings of Turkish government bonds had fallen by $16.2 million. "I don't think investors will throw in the towel just yet because I think there is still expectation there is more to come in the coming months," said Kaan Nazli, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.

Persons: Murad Sezer, Thursday's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Viktor Szabo, Abrdn, it's, It's, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Eric Fine, Marek Drimal, Simsek, Dan Wood, William Blair, Fitch, Erdogan, Erkan, Kaan, Neuberger Berman, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, VanEck

The Romanian central bank said slower economic growth and cheaper energy would help bring inflation down to single digits this year from over 16% now, earlier than previously forecast. "So the main question is when inflation in the region will fall enough that central banks will be willing to start normalising monetary conditions." Inflation is still expected to rise in early 2023 in some central European countries, based on central bank forecasts, before returning to single-digit territory by year-end. "This will help to improve external positions and lower inflation pressures in Central and Eastern Europe." "Given the dovish bias around the growth-inflation trade-off at Poland's central bank, we think the risk of premature policy easing is greatest there."

Inflation expectations are de-anchoring from central bank targets, UniCredit CEE Chief Economist Dan Bucsa said. The situation is less clear in Poland though credit holidays to ease the burden of higher central bank interest rates are remaining heading into 2023. In western Europe, economists and financial markets largely expect price growth in the euro area to fall back to the European Central Bank's 2% target by 2024. "The upcoming general election is likely to stimulate fiscal expansion and, notably, the planned significant increase to the minimum wage from January may indeed spark a more substantial wage growth across the board." According to a Czech central bank survey, companies expect year-on-year inflation to be at 10.3% in one year and at 7.5% in three years, well above the central bank's 2% target.

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