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☆ The 10-year Treasury yield is looming as a potential anchor on stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The runup in the 10-year Treasury yield is proving to be more than a short-term fluctuation, and that is starting to draw nervous looks on Wall Street. US10Y 3M mountain The 10-year Treasury yield started to climb ahead of the election and has moved higher still after Donald Trump's victory. With the 10-year yield close to a key psychological level of 4.5%, there is concern that another move higher could lead to a downturn in the stock market. If the 10-year yield does break through the 4.5% level, technical patterns suggest it could make a significant climb. Strong economic growth and optimism around artificial intelligence are two reasons why stocks may be able to tolerate higher rates, said Solita Marcelli, UBS global wealth management chief investment officer for the Americas.

Persons: Bond, Donald Trump's, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Trump, Senyek, Paul Ciana, Stocks, Solita Marcelli, Marcelli Organizations: Treasury, Wolfe Research, Bank of America, UBS Locations: 1Q25

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Amid focus on elections, don’t neglect market moves
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Eugene Tanner | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. It may be tempting to view market moves as a proxy for the direction that the elections will go. But UBS thinks any outsized market moves caused by election volatility is an opportunity for investors to build up their portfolios. The optimism around the economy and markets is shared by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group.

Persons: Honolulu Hale, Eugene Tanner, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Donald Trump, Stocks, Nomura, Marcelli, Ryan Detrick, Detrick, Fred Imbert, Pia Singh, Jesse Pound, Samantha Subin Organizations: AFP, Getty, CNBC, Democratic, Republican Party, UBS, Americas, UBS Global, Carson Group, White Locations: Honolulu, Honolulu , Hawaii, U.S

Bitcoin, an asset tied to a Trump victory given the candidates courtship of the industry, soared to a record $75,000 . Heading into the election, investors and analysts pointed to several stocks and sectors that could benefit from a Trump win. Here's a roundup of some of those: Steel stocks If Trump regains the presidency, JPMorgan expects steel stocks to outperform . Related stocks that could outperform under a Trump victory include Nucor , Cleveland-Cliffs , Kaiser Aluminum and MP Materials , according to Peterson. Supporters of Trump have also used the stock as a way to invest in a Trump victory.

Persons: Donald Trump ., Trump, Kamala Harris, Here's, Bill Peterson, Peterson, UBS's, Goldman Sachs, Strategas, Lazard, Wolfe, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Marion Laboure, bitcoin, Nic Puckrin, David Zerzos, Zerzos, Marcelli, Seth Seifman, Russell, Joe Biden, IWM, —, Halliburton, Trump's, ULTA, Michael Bloom, Sean Conlon, Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Pia Singh Organizations: U.S, NBC, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Trump, JPMorgan, Aluminum, Financials Bank of America, of America, UBS's Trump, UBS, Swiss, Citigroup, Citizens, Wolfe Research, GOP, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, ISI, Deutsche Bank, Investors, Jefferies, Military, Strategas, Gas Energy, Evercore ISI, Exxon Mobil, Halliburton, Companies Locations: Nucor, Cleveland, U.S, China, U.S . Southern

☆ The trader guide to the election: Which stocks Wall Street expects to benefit under Trump or Harris
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Generally, a Trump win is seen as positive for financials given a higher likelihood of deregulation for companies in the space. Traditional oil and gas names are also likely to benefit under a second Trump presidency. One is made up of stocks that benefit after a Harris win; the other would outperform under a second Trump presidency. However, a Harris win is expected to keep current regulation measures in place, and possibly introduce new ones. Private equity giants KKR and Blackstone would also benefit under a Trump win.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Paul Gallant, Cowen, Gallant, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Daniel Clifton, Strategas, Andrew Garthwaite, Trump, Garthwaite, TAN, we've, Biden, Wells, Ike Boruchow, Boruchow, —, Russell, Joe Biden, Morgan Stanley, Crypto, isn't, Nic Puckrin, bitcoin, Marcelli, Financials, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Lazard Organizations: Congress, U.S ., Trump, U.S . Trump, GOP, Democratic, CNBC Pro, Wall, Strategas, Enterprise, of America, Ford, UBS, Apple, Enphase Energy, Technologies Enphase, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, Cadence Bank, Viking Therapeutics, Bureau, CNBC, Wolfe Research, Lazard, Private, KKR, Blackstone, Evercore Locations: Washington, of America Cleveland, Cleveland, China

☆ Big Tech stocks have a high earnings bar to clear
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Overall S & P 500 profit growth is tracking below what analysts anticipated heading into the reporting period. Still, the S & P 500 is less than 1% below a record high reached earlier this month. Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer for the Americas, also warned that high valuations could be a problem for megacap tech stocks as earnings roll out. Technical patterns based on price charts aren't too favorable, either, heading into megacap tech earnings. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) in June hit its highest level relative to the S & P 500 since March 2000 , when the dot-com bubble peaked.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, Marcelli, Wells Fargo Organizations: Google, Microsoft, Apple, Nasdaq, UBS Global Wealth Management, Netflix Locations: Americas

☆ China's surprise stimulus could be a red flag, so investors should approach the nation's long-awaited rally with caution
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

AdvertisementLorraine Tan, Morningstar's director of equity research for Asia, also thinks monetary stimulus won't be sufficient. History says their skepticism is warranted, as China's past stimulus efforts have often failed to lead to sustainable gains. Even if this surge holds up, it won't necessarily spark a self-fulfilling prophecy that provides a lasting boost for China's economy. But others like Tan from Morningstar believe this bad news is reflected in Chinese stocks' cheap valuations. The team at UBS Global Wealth Management is also cautiously optimistic about Chinese stocks after this news.

Persons: —, they're, Betty Wang, Marcelli, Lorraine Tan, Tan, Brian Mulberry, Mulberry, Wang, China isn't, Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab, Donald Trump, Rory Green, Xi Jinping, Biden, Trump, That's, Kleintop, Morningstar, she'd Organizations: Service, Business, People's Bank of, Oxford Economics, UBS Global Wealth Management, Zacks Investment Management, Federal Reserve, BI Locations: China, People's Bank of China, Asia, Central, Republic

☆ 'Babies tossed out with the bath water': Why top strategists aren't scared during the wildest market since March 2020
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Related storiesWhile those concerns served as the kindling, it was the July jobs report that sparked terror. A closer look at the jobs report reveals that while job additions underwhelmed, jobless claims were also minimal. AdvertisementSecond-quarter earnings growth has been impressive so far and seems set to rise by low single digits, according to UBS GWM. The bullish strategy chief remarked in a note Monday that six of the 11 market sectors have enjoyed double-digit earnings growth this quarter, while only three have seen declines. "Such sell-offs can offer an opportunity to 'catch babies tossed out with the bath water,'" Stoltzfus wrote.

Persons: —, Oppenheimer, Jonathan Golub, Oppenheimer Jason Draho, Americas Solita Marcelli, Marcelli, Beryl, Draho, That's, David Lefkowitz, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus Organizations: Service, Business, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Labor, UBS GWM Locations: Americas

☆ Stock market today: Indexes tank after weak jobs report sparks panic
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks plunged Friday after a weak July jobs report sparked investor panic. The Nasdaq closed in correction territory, and the VIX soared as much as 60% to hit its highest since March 2023. AdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Friday, with the S&P 500 extending its two-day sell-off to more than 3%, as a weak July jobs report sparked panic among investors. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, soared as much as 60% to 29.66, its highest level since March 2023. AdvertisementThe damage was exacerbated after the July jobs report showed an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate and payroll figures badly missed estimates.

Persons: —, Tom Lee Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Treasury, Amazon, Intel, Federal, CME, Fed, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Americas, Here's

☆ The Trump trade: how a red wave could impact stocks, bonds, and commodities
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Read previewAs we near the November elections, investors are increasingly focused on what a Donald Trump win would mean for global markets and economies. The charts below show how stock sectors moved in the 24 hours after the debate and how a Trump administration might impact sectors with varying regulatory burdens. If Trump wins, investors will need to cut through the noise and at least understand how he might impact different parts of the economy. Where monetary policy is concerned, leading economist Christophe Barraud believes a Trump administration could pressure the Federal Reserve to be very accommodative on rates, in other words, steeper or sooner cuts. It expects a Trump Administration to allow LNG export permits after the Biden Administration attempted to halt them.

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Trump, Solita, Samantha Lamas, Goldman, Goldman's Jan Hatzius, Christophe Barraud, Bloomberg Businessweek Trump, Morgan Stanely, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Trump, Business, Trump Media, Technology, UBS, Americas Global Wealth Management, Morningstar, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Businessweek, Korea, Asia Pacific's, Republican, Trump Administration, Biden Locations: Predictit, Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, Germany, Asia, Goldman Sachs, Washington

☆ 5 ways investors can hedge against under-the-radar threats to this 'Goldilocks' market, according to a leading UBS strategist who saw this rally coming
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

He reasoned that while higher interest rates were a concern, solid earnings growth would keep stocks afloat. Since then, the S&P 500 has rallied 11.1% off its early May lows and extended its year-to-date surge to 16.9%. Since UBS GWM is neutral on US stocks, Lefkowitz recommends that investors keep their expectations in check and look for alternatives. Though not flashy, bonds boast attractive yields and should continue to rally if the Fed cuts rates this fall, according to UBS GWM. "We think investors should position for a lower interest rate environment and buy quality bonds, which have attractive yields and the potential for capital appreciation amid the potential for a deeper easing cycle," Marcelli wrote in the note.

Persons: —, it's, David Lefkowitz, who's, Lefkowitz, We'll, that's, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, UBS GWM, seconding, Solita Marcelli, Marcelli, Trump Organizations: Service, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS GWM's, Business, UBS GWM, Federal, Nvidia, UBS, White Locations: Washington

☆ The small-cap slump is getting historically long. Here's what needs to change for a rebound
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"With yields holding firm at elevated levels , large caps continue to outperform small caps. Hopes for multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year have dimmed after recent inflation readings showed signs of stickiness. An economy that is growing more slowly, but with cooler inflation, could be the combination small caps need. Small caps could also benefit from an uptick in the global economy that benefits areas like manufacturing that has heavy representation in the small-cap index. Investors who really want exposure to small caps could also look outside of the U.S. Wolfe Research analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a May 29 note to clients that global small caps are outperforming their U.S. counterparts and are poised for a potential breakout.

Persons: Russell, Todd Sohn, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Chad Miller, you've, Miller, Cayla, Seder, Mark Haefele, Solita, Angelo Kourkafas, Edward Jones, Rob Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC, ESG, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, Big Tech, Companies, UBS, Institute, Supply, PMI, Investors, U.S . Wolfe Research Locations: Thrivent, Silicon

☆ UBS says it's time to move out of cash. Here's where it sees opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The era of hiding out in cash is coming to an end, according to UBS. While investors have been earning yields of more than 5% on instruments like money market funds and certificates of deposit, those rates aren't expected to stick around much longer. "We believe investors should limit their overall cash balances as falling interest rates this year and beyond will diminish returns on cash," Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note Monday. Investors flooded into money market funds as the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022. UBS also moved out on the curve on TIPS earlier this month after initially buying 5-year inflation-protected securities in August.

Persons: Marcelli, Leslie Falconio, Falconio Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Investors, Federal Reserve, Investment Company Institute, AAA, AAA CMBS Locations: UBS Americas

☆ 4 reasons why the S&P 500 has another 5% upside this year, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The ongoing S&P 500 rally could extend to 5,500 this year, UBS said. Tech earnings have remained strong, with ex-Mag 7 tech firm profits revised 7% higher since March. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementWith last month's equity jitters already quashed, the ongoing rebound is the start of an extensive summer rally, UBS said. According to a note published Tuesday, the S&P 500 could reach the firm's upside scenario of 5,500 by this year's end.

Persons: Disinflation, —, Marcelli, That's Organizations: UBS, Tech, Service, Global Wealth Management, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple

☆ 'Volatility could explode': The S&P 500 is ripe for a correction as tensions in the Middle East flare and inflation sticks, experts warn. Here's what to do with your money.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since late October last year, the S&P 500 has risen as much as 27% on strong economic data and excitement about AI. Losses were steepest last week when Iran fired missiles at Israel, exacerbating regional and global tensions. But as more labor market and inflation data has come out, investors now believe a cut is off the table until at least July. The S&P 500 has now dipped below its 20-day moving average, like it did last summer when yields rose above 4.35%. "The VIX, SKEW and Put/Call Ratio all indicate that sophisticated investors are on edge and volatility could explode to 52-week highs in the weeks ahead," Essaye said.

Persons: —, that's, Israel, James Demmert, Demmert, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Tom Essaye, Essaye, selloff, Solita, It's, Marcelli, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Brent, Research, Federal Reserve, LPL, MAs, UBS Americas, UBS Global Investment Locations: Iran, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen

☆ 4 reasons why Wall Street fears that Nvidia's hard-earned gains could go up in smoke
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

In the last 15 months, Wall Street analysts have hailed generative AI as the most impactful innovation in decades and compared its theoretical impact to that of the internet. While the full impact of AI isn't clear yet, companies are under immense pressure to convince investors that they're not falling behind. "We can't envision any of these large cloud companies or consumer companies pulling back on AI spending anytime soon," Colello said. UBS"This is not always a harbinger of slowing revenue growth and a concentrated H200/B100 launch could be adding to near-term opex," Arcuri wrote in a recent note. AdvertisementDespite what Nvidia's recent performance suggests, Wall Street is notoriously tough to please.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Steve Sosnick, Wedbush's Dan Ives, who's, Marcelli, they're, Sosnick, Brian Colello, Colello, They're, we're, Vivek Arya, Arya, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg, Jason Draho, Draho, Timothy Arcuri, Arcuri Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Business, Nvidia, Interactive, Bulls, Bank of America, Wedbush Securities, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Morningstar, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management

☆ UBS says the AI-driven tech rally 'still has room to run' as the sector is set to see explosive growth — and shares 2 trades to benefit from the upside potential
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

But can the momentum continue for AI stocks continue? But our estimates could prove to be conservative in light of recent developments like Open AI's text-to-video model Sora and management commentary from Nvidia," Marcelli said. Both Microsoft and Alphabet reported increased cloud revenue growth thanks to AI, and revenue from their AI models and applications should see significant growth in the next five years, she said. "Given the strong AI-related tailwinds, we see 18% year-over-year earnings growth in 2024 for the global tech sector, including information technology and internet," Marcelli said. 2 trades to ride the AI waveTo take advantage of further AI upside, Marcelli said UBS prefers two market subsectors: semiconductors and software.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, Marcelli Organizations: Nvidia, Business, UBS, UBS Americas, Microsoft, VanEck Semiconductor, Invesco Semiconductors, Software Sector, P Software & Services, Big Tech

☆ Nvidia's blowout earnings could fuel interest in this 'Magnificent Seven' ETF
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) rose more than 4% and had already seen 280,000 shares traded as of Thursday afternoon, putting in on track to potentially set a new fund record for daily volume. The Roundhill fund has a simple structure that is resonating with some investors eager to buy even more of the Magnificent Seven. MAGS YTD mountain Roundhill's Magnificent Seven ETF tracks major tech stocks. In addition to capitalizing on investor demand for ways to play the megacap tech stocks, the Roundhill ETF is also a case study in fund marketing. So Roundhill pivoted out of "Big Tech" and into the trendier "Magnificent Seven."

Persons: BIGT, Tesla, MAGS, David Mazza, Mazza, Andrew Stewart Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Big Tech, Roundhill Investments, Exchange Capital Management Locations: Americas

☆ What's next for the S&P 500 after hitting a record? Nvidia is the key
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Where markets go next may well depend on how Nvidia does after going forward. "The answer here will depend on NVDA," Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report wrote in a Thursday note. "The stock is at an all-time high ... and if it can hold (or extend) this rally ... it'll imply that tech can help lead this market higher." Nvidia and other artificial intelligence darlings, including Meta Platforms, powered the broader market last year, while other stocks underperformed. I'd rather take it elsewhere in something that hasn't had as much of a run as Nvidia has."

Persons: Tom Essaye, Essaye, Patrick McDonough, Solita Marcelli, Charles Ashley, hasn't, Said PGIM's McDonough Organizations: Nvidia, Revenue, Nasdaq, VanEck Semiconductor, Federal Reserve, Meta, UBS Global Wealth Management, Catalyst Funds

☆ 'There's very little margin for error': 7 strategists explain why the Goldilocks narrative is in trouble — but these 8 investments are still worth making now
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Investors are pricing in a best-case outcome where earnings rise and inflation returns to normal in a continued economic expansion. “It’s a tough needle to thread,” said Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “And that pretty much pulls forward almost all the returns, in our minds, for 2024.”AdvertisementCrit Thomas, a global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, has the same concern. “And so at 21x earnings, there’s very little margin for error here.”AdvertisementFourth-quarter earnings mostly met measured expectations , as did forward guidance. Clark Bellin, the chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth, said he’s less worried about valuations broadly and is more interested in seeing which sectors look cheap.

Persons: —, ”, Solita Marcelli, “, Sameer Samana, Steve Sosnick, It’s, Steven Wieting, “ We’ve, Crit Thomas, “ I’m, ” Thomas, We’re, Chris Galipeau, ” Galipeau, ” Sosnick, we’ve, Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab, ” Sonders, there’s, Clark Bellin, he’s, ” Bellin, you’re, Stocks, Samana, won’t, Thomas, Wieting, Bellin, “ They’ve, they’re Organizations: Service, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Interactive, Citi Global Wealth’s, Touchstone Investments, Franklin Templeton Institute, Citi Global Wealth, Bellwether Wealth Locations: Wells Fargo, Samana, ” Samana, Galipeau

NEW YORK (AP) — As some of the world’s biggest economies stumble into recession, the United States keeps chugging along. Yet in the United States, the economy motored ahead in last year’s fourth quarter for a sixth straight quarter of growth. But, for now, the outlook continues to appear better for the United States than many other big economies. Even China, whose economy is growing faster than the United States’, is under heavy pressure. Some pillars of support for consumer spending may be weakening.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, Biden, ”, Diane Swonk, They've, Catherine Mann, Morgan Stanley, Chris Kempczinski, he’s, ” ___ Rugaber Organizations: U.S, UBS Global Wealth Management, International Monetary Fund, KPMG, “, Federal, British, Bank of England, Bank of, Japan, Federal Reserve Locations: United States, Japan, United Kingdom, U.S, Government, Americas, Washington, Europe, Ukraine, China

☆ Gauging the risk of contagion from NYCB and commercial real estate woes
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The latest concern threatening regional banks started on Jan. 31, when New York Community Bancorp. reported unexpected fourth quarter loss and a large loan loss reserve against futures losses, due in part to the bank's commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. One worry is that the NYCB credit downgrade could spur ratings agencies to take a closer look at other banks, or cause clients to again pull deposits out of regional banks. Determining exactly how unique NYCB's exposure to commercial real estate is will be a key focus for investors and analysts in coming weeks. A note on Wednesday from Wolfe Research analysts focused on banks and commercial real estate showed that regional banks have in general reduced their commercial real estate exposure over the past 15 years.

Persons: NYCB, Ian Lyngen, hasn't, Lyngen, D.A, Davidson, Peter Winter, Winter, Macrae Sykes, Banks, They're, Sykes, Wells Fargo, Jerome Powell, Bond, Tom Fitzpatrick, RJ O'Brien, Fitzpatrick, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Investors, New York Community Bancorp, Moody's, Street, Silicon Valley Bank, BMO, Treasury, Wolfe Research, UBS, Gabelli, CNBC Locations: Silicon, Wells

☆ A Goldilocks economy could be coming, but a key piece of the puzzle remains elusive
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at why investors are eyeing an even better outcome for the market than a soft landing . The big storyMarket's sweet spotPiotr PowietrzynskiForget about a soft landing, some market watchers want something just right. For months, investors hoped the Fed's tightening policy would culminate in a soft landing: lowering inflation while avoiding a full-blown recession. But why settle for a soft landing when you can get it all? Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty ImagesA Goldilocks economy still hinges on the Fed cutting rates, which has proved fleeting for investors.

Persons: —, hasn't, Piotr Powietrzynski Forget, Matthew Fox, Solita, Marcelli, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie, we'll, Powell, Banks, Kenneth Rogoff, Jensen Huang, Rick Wilking, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Savita Subramanian, Gen, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Fintechs, VCs, Sam Altman, Altman, didn't, Scott Winters, Alyssa Powell, Travis Kelce, Experian, It's, EVs, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Service, Apple, Business, Getty, Bank of America, Harvard, Nvidia, CES, Kansas City Chiefs, US Treasury, New York Times, UBS, FAA, Boeing, Max Locations: Americas, Washington ,, Xinhua, Jensen, Las Vegas , Nevada, U.S, China, New York, London

☆ Small-cap stocks are the cheapest they've been since 2000 and are an under-the-radar way to profit from AI, a strategy chief predicts. Here are 5 ways to play their upcoming rally.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

A soft landing would greatly boost small caps since they're economically sensitive, meaning they tend to thrive in expansions and fall during contractions. Marcelli also made note of smaller companies' weaker balance sheets, though those are arguably accounted for in valuations. With that said, those positive forces appear to be intact, so small caps could finally break out. Instead of selling AI chips or products, smaller companies can enhance their productivity by using the technology, the strategy chief said. 5 sectors where small caps can thriveWithin small caps, Temple said he's less focused on what sector a company falls into and more concerned with whether that firm is financially healthy.

Persons: haven't, Russell, Marcelli, Ronald Temple, Temple, couldn't, there's, Jack Janasiewicz, Janasiewicz, he's, you've, I'd, they've Organizations: Business, Yahoo Finance, UBS Global Wealth Management, Lazard Asset Management, Temple, Reserve, Savings, Nvidia, Devices, Microsoft

☆ These are the 30 best investments to make now as US stocks rally to record highs, according to bullish strategists at 3 large investment firms
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Lerner noted that such occurrences are correlated with near-term pain as well as sizable forward returns. Another encouraging omen for US stocks is their successful track record in the second year of a bull market, as Belski noted last fall. Furthermore, since the financial crisis, Belski noted that stocks fell in the first month eight times but have ended the year in the green in six of those years. BMO Capital Markets30 investments to make during a rallyIn addition to sharing market commentary, strategists at BMO, Truist, and UBS outlined investment ideas as stocks enter uncharted territory. UBS spotlighted high-quality stocks with healthy balance sheets and sound earnings that drive profitability, especially since economic growth is slowing.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, Keith Lerner, Brian Belski, Lerner, Belski, who've Organizations: Business, BMO, Truist, UBS, BMO Capital Markets, BMO Capital, UBS spotlighted Locations: Swiss, Europe

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Deutsche Bank's CVIX (.DBCVIX) - the currency market's version of Wall St's "fear index" of stock volatility and a weighted average of implied "vol" in nine major pairings - has basically imploded. By driving short-term dollar cash rates and U.S. bond yields higher over the past 20 months, the Fed basically sucked cash from the wider investment world and supercharged dollar exchange rates everywhere. Now that it looks done, the buck's finally on the back foot - plumbing levels not seen since August. With implied volatility directionally biased, the dollar index and the CVIX are typically well correlated and both peaked in tandem in same month of September last year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Deutsche Bank's, Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, BOJ, BOE, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Matthew Hornbach, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Deutsche, U.S, ING, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England, ECB, UBS Global Wealth, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S . Federal, Japan, U.S

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