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☆ Are office buildings the next 'Big Short' or the next widow-maker trade? The trader behind the ubersuccessful mall short shares his playbook for making money without flaming out.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

Dan McNamara's Polpo Capital is shorting office real estate, a risky move that could be lucrative. If you're looking for a doomsday vision of commercial real estate, you can find it there. "I don't think this is the 'Big Short,'" McNamara told me. This doesn't mean he doesn't have a game plan to make money off cultural shifts that could forever change the state of commercial real estate. Lucas Jackson/ReutersWhere he's going longOne risk of shorting real estate is that it's more susceptible to what's known in real-estate circles as "extend and pretend."

Persons: Dan McNamara's, McNamara, it's, It's, shorting, Carl Icahn, Jim Chanos, Brendan McDermid, Dan McNamara, McNamara's, Braver Stern, Dan McNamara McNamara's, suede loafers, McNamara didn't, Josh Nester, Polpo, he's, Morgan Stanley, Kamil Sadik, Lucas Jackson, Manus Clancy, You've, David Tepper's, Trepp's Clancy, Clancy, David Tepper Organizations: Central Park, New, Polpo, New York University, Columbia, Kynikos Associates, Enron, Asset Management, Reuters, UBS, Co, Societe Generale, Securitized Credit Partners, Credit Suisse, MP, Fund, Bloomberg, of America, Simon Property, Federal Locations: Manhattan, Sixth, Central, New York City, New York, MatlinPatterson, America, China, Italy, Westchester , New York, Tribeca, York, Westchester, Waterford , Connecticut, Baltimore, San Francisco

☆ The price of a typical starter home fell in San Francisco, Austin, and Phoenix, bucking a national trend — here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The cost of starter homes has grown in every US metro but three since last year, Redfin said. San Francisco, Austin, and Phoenix starter home prices declined by 13.3%, 12.2%, and 9.7%, respectively. That doesn't mean that these starter homes are cheap, or the incomes needed to afford them are minuscule. Similar to Austin and San Francisco, Bokhari chops it up to the ebb and flow of supply and demand. While starter home prices decreased in San Francisco, Austin, and Phoenix, Redfin found that the typical starter home sold for a record $243,000 in June.

Persons: Redfin, they're, Sheharyar, Bokhari, Manus Clancy, Austin, Tesla Organizations: Phoenix, Service, Apple, Google, Oracle Locations: San Francisco, Austin, Wall, Silicon, Phoenix, Francisco, homebuyers, Redfin

☆ Empty offices, abandoned malls, concerns over crime: Why San Francisco, the Golden City, is losing its luster
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( Al Yoon | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Days later, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield and coowner Brookfield gave the San Francisco City Centre back to their lenders after the exit of retailers left the mall just over half occupied. Whatever is going on in San Francisco, we are not interested in being part of that any longer." Fear of crime taints the cityCrime, or the fear of it, often creeps into conversations about San Francisco, too. "I ask, what's the driver" of the San Francisco office vacancies, Scavone told Insider. He continued: "Is it because downtown San Francisco is somewhat of a difficult commute from suburbs in Marin County or the East Bay?"

Persons: Manus Clancy, Trepp, —, Brookfield, Clancy, Salesforce, Jeff Burg, he's, Burg, we're, Thomas Baltimore, hasn't, Elon Musk, Bob Lee, Frank Scavone, Scavone Organizations: Service, San Francisco, California, Hilton San Francisco, Square, Parc, San Francisco City Centre, San, Krea, Union, Census, LinkedIn, Park Hotels, Resorts, Westfield, ABC, San Francisco Travel Association, Elon, Foods, The New York Times, McKinsey & Co, downtown Locations: San Francisco, San, San Francisco Chronicle, Westfield, Real, Francisco, New York, cubicles, Boston , Chicago, Houston, Miami, San Francisco's Hayes Valley, Manhattan, Tenderloin, —, downtown San Francisco, Marin County

☆ Blackstone will help prevent an office market 'catastrophe', says JPMorgan's commercial real estate chief
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Al Yoon | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Reports on the death of offices are "just wrong," JPMorgan's commercial real estate chief said. Office buildings are losing value as more people opt to work from home and companies need less space. No 'catastrophe' for the office market"You get the headline written that the office market is a catastrophe," Brooks said during a JPMorgan outlook webinar on June 1. In April, Blackstone announced the final close of its Blackstone Real Estate Partners X, the largest real estate fund ever raised, with $30.4 billion in capital commitments. Through its real estate investment trust, Blackstone has maintained some exposure to office buildings.

Persons: Blackstone, delinquencies, Alfred Brooks, Brooks, JLL, Manus Clancy, JPMorgan —, hasn't, They're Organizations: JPMorgan, Blackstone, Blackstone Real Estate Partners Locations: Brookfield, Blackstone, Los Angeles

☆ JPMorgan's commercial real estate chief lays out how Blackstone will help prevent an office market 'catastrophe'
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Al Yoon | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

☆ No office tower is safe from the roiling market — not even a trophy building housing Google and Visa deemed one of the best
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Potential problems at One Market Plaza show how far San Francisco's office market may fall. One Market Plaza has long been considered the pinnacle of San Francisco's office market. Autodesk plans to downsize by about 73,000 square feet to 211,000 square feet, a spokeswoman told Insider. Google did not respond to a request for comment on its plans for One Market Plaza. One Market Plaza could indicate how far San Francisco's office woes reachTurbulence at One Market Plaza indicates the extent of the problems facing San Francisco's office market.

☆ Banks aren't the only ones that hold risky commercial-real-estate debt. Pension funds are about to feel the pain, too.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Al Yoon | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Pension funds, REITs, and insurers hold more than $1.2 trillion in commercial-real-estate debt. CalSTRS, a California pension fund, told the FT it will be writing down its real-estate portfolio. Among them are the large pension funds, REITs, and insurance companies, together accounting for more than $1.2 trillion — or 22% — of the $5.62 trillion in total commercial-real-estate debt outstanding, according to BofA Global Research. Some pension funds were already planning to reduce their exposures to commercial real estate even before the recent bank failures magnified the risks. In September, fund managers at Artemis Real Estate Partners and PGIM Real Estate said at a Bisnow conference that their investors indicated they'd be reducing allocations to real estate, just because the assets had been outperforming others.

☆ The fallout from empty offices is coming. Here's where investors could see the pain
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

As concerns about regional banks roiled markets, investors weighed another threat: commercial real estate. Also, layered on top of the property value pressure, are the tightening credit conditions brought on by the recent turmoil in the banking sector. There is no doubt this scenario is a toxic mix for the capital-intensive real estate industry. At the moment, many experts say the real estate market isn't causing trouble for banks, but fears about the financial system are likely worsening conditions in real estate because liquidity is being reduced. The biggest concern is seeing how many other companies join Brookfield , Blackstone and Pimco in handing back the keys on office properties, Clancy said.

☆ The growing number of distressed office buildings reflects a recognition by owners and lenders that the robust return to office they had hoped for isn't likely to materialize
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Office owners like Brookfield, RXR, and Related are in the process of defaulting on office loans. Some of real estate's biggest names have defaulted on their office debt in recent weeks. The delinquency rate for office loans is only 1.83% now, according to Trepp, a firm that researches real-estate debt. Loans come dueOver this year and next year, 24% of commercial real estate loans will be coming due, many of them office loans, per Hendry. Office buildings, from the newest and shiniest Class A towers to the older and less-sexy Class B buildings, were a pretty safe investment, as long as they were in the right locales.

☆ Investors and landlords are watching big expiring leases from Twitter, Morgan Stanley, and 7 other companies to understand just how hard remote work will hit the office sector
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-13 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

It'll take years to gauge the effect of remote work on major office buildings across the US. Trepp, a company that tracks real-estate debt, has compiled a list of 10 office leases to watch. Deals can take months to complete, while office leases often can run up to 10 years, resulting in typically steady income for property owners through the ebbs and flows of the broader economy. In order to fully understand what's happening, it can be helpful to look at some of the largest leases in major buildings across the country. Landlords usually purchase large office buildings with large loans, so naturally, the income of the property is of great interest to whoever holds the debt.

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