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☆ Stocks face a 10% drop with key economic data mired in recession territory, investment chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Key data prints are hovering in recession territory, Megan Horneman said. "I think investors got a little ahead of themselves," she said. This over-enthusiasm could cost the market heavily, pushing stocks toward a 7% to 10% drop, the chief investment officer said. "I think investors got a little ahead of themselves as far as the what strength there is in the economy," she told Yahoo Finance. Still, these data prints have taken a backseat to labor data, which holds the spotlight on Wall Street.

Persons: Megan Horneman, —, Tim Fiore, Morgan Stanley, Horneman Organizations: Yahoo Finance, Service, Conference Board, September's, PMI, US Federal Reserve

☆ Harris and Trump want to make stuff in America again. That’s really hard to do
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

And it’ll be tough for either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump to turn that around if elected, no matter their grandiose campaign promises. Put together, such investments have resulted in a sharp pick-up in construction spending by manufacturers, according to government data. Manufacturing’s main pain points are sluggish demand and elevated interest rates, according to recent manufacturing surveys by the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global. And, of course, there are issues specific to certain sectors of the manufacturing industry. It could get better, but it’s not clear whenIt’s not all doom and gloom for the manufacturing industry.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Biden, haven’t, hasn’t, Harris, ” Harris, Trump, ” Chris Williamson, ” Timothy Fiore, There’s, ” Lauren Goodwin, ” Organizations: Washington CNN, Act, Congress, Private, Manufacturers, Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, P, P Global Market Intelligence, ISM’s Manufacturing, Survey, P Global, Boeing, Federal, New York Life Investments Locations: America, Pittsburgh, Savannah, China, Pennsylvania, Korea, North Carolina, Germany, Georgia

☆ Weak manufacturing measures raise specter of U.S. economic slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. factories remained in slowdown mode in August, fueling fears about where the economy is headed, according to separate manufacturing gauges. Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative," said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. While the index level suggests contraction in the manufacturing sector, Fiore pointed out that any reading above 42.5% generally points to expansion across the broader economy. Another weak economic reading raises the probability the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates by at least a quarter percentage point later this month. "A further downward lurch in the PMI points to the manufacturing sector acting as an increased drag on the economy midway through the third quarter.

Persons: Dow Jones, Timothy Fiore, Fiore, Stocks, Chris Williamson Organizations: Institute for Supply Management, Dow, ISM Manufacturing Business Survey, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, PMI, P Global Market Intelligence Locations: U.S

☆ US manufacturing slump deepens, factory gate price pressures subdued
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Shrinking activity left factories resorting to layoffs, the survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday. ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Chair Timothy Fiore described the practise as happening "to a greater extent than in prior months." At face value, the ISM survey is consistent with an economy that is in recession. The ISM survey showed that transportation equipment was the only one of the six biggest industries reporting growth last month. ISM manufacturing PMIWEAK DEMANDThe ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index climbed to a still-subdued 45.6 from 42.6 in May amid increased caution from businesses and consumers alike.

Persons: Timothy Fiore, payrolls, Andrew Hunter, Jonathan Millar, José Torres, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Institute for Supply Management, Manufacturing Business Survey, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, PMI, Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Manufacturers, Machinery, Commerce Department, Interactive Brokers, Thomson Locations: homebuilding WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Miami

☆ Morning Bid: Hot, cold and skipping a beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Like a patient with a virus, incoming data appears to blow hot and cold at the same time. Private sector and full national snapshots of payroll growth for May are due later today and on Friday. But a renewed rise in U.S. staff vacancies in April showed the labor market tightening again if anything - even a Chicago manufacturing survey alarmed with a sharp contraction in factory activity last month. The central bank's "Beige Book" on economic conditions said on Wednesday that the labor market "continued to be strong" in May "with contacts reporting difficulty finding workers across a wide range of skill levels and industries." U.S. Treasury yields crept back up on Thursday after the debt ceiling vote overnight and despite the mixed economic picture.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Philip Jefferson, Larry Fink, Klaas Knot, Patrick Harker, President Biden, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, BlackRock, Treasury, U.S, San, Central Bank, Philadelphia Federal, Broadcom, Dollar, Hormel, Cooper Companies, Republicans, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Chicago, Salesforce, San Francisco

☆ US manufacturing contacts again in April but pulls off 3-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The ISM said its manufacturing PMI increased to 47.1 last month from 46.3 in March, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. It was the sixth straight month that the PMI remained below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing. The proportion of manufacturing GDP with a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 percent - a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness - was 12 percent in April, compared to 25 percent in March, said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Only two of the six biggest manufacturing industries, petroleum and coal products as well as transportation equipment, reported growth last month. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index rose to 45.7 last month from 44.3 in March.

☆ US manufacturing contracts again in April, but pace slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The ISM said its manufacturing PMI increased to 47.1 last month from 46.3 in March, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. The ISM said 73% of manufacturing gross domestic product was contracting, up from 70% in March. "The proportion of manufacturing GDP with a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 percent - a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness - was 12 percent in April, compared to 25 percent in March," said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Only two of the six biggest manufacturing industries, petroleum and coal products as well as transportation equipment, reported growth. Higher prices align with government data showing wages and salaries in the manufacturing industry growing solidly in the first quarter.

But manufacturers across the eurozone have reported business activity has been falling for nine months since June 2022 according to purchasing managers’ surveys. U.S. manufacturers have reported business activity has been falling for five months since November 2022 according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s purchasing survey. But the deficit had narrowed from 63 million barrels (-15% or -2.05 standard deviations) at the end of June 2022, according to data from Euroilstock. U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories were 18 million barrels (-14% or -1.08 standard deviations) below the prior 10-year seasonal average on March 31. In Singapore, distillate inventories have risen in 12 of the 15 most recent weeks by a total of 3 million barrels, according to data from Enterprise Singapore.

☆ US manufacturing sector still shrinking; raw material prices rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Nevertheless, the rebound in prices at the factory gate suggests inflation could remain elevated for a while after monthly consumer and producer prices surged in January. The ISM's manufacturing PMI edged up to 47.7 last month from 47.4 in January. Paper products, textile mills, furniture and related products as well as nonmetallic mineral products, computer and electronic products were among the 14 reporting contraction. Comments from some manufacturers in the ISM survey were supportive of this thesis. Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said "new order rates remain sluggish due to buyer and supplier disagreements regarding price levels and delivery lead times."

☆ Morning bid: Tech tonic, recession rethink
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Pumped-up hopes for U.S. tech sector earnings in a heavy week for corporate updates generally have twinned with the latest sign Europe may have dodged a winter recession. With Microsoft in view, attention will be on the extent for cost cutting and job shedding in the tech and digital space. Music-streamer Spotify (SPOT.N) rose 2% on Monday as it joined a growing list of tech firms to announce staff cuts, shedding 6% of its workforce. Reports of Ford's F.N plan to cut 3,200 workers in Europe shows job attrition may not be confined to tech sector. Whether that's just too rosy and markets have yet to price a full-blown earnings recession is this year's big question.

☆ Morning Bid: Land of the rising yields
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. In the last major central bank set-piece of the year, the BOJ raised its long-standing cap on 10-year Japanese government bond yields by quarter of a percentage point to 0.5% - sending those yields and the yen surging and squeezing stocks further. Yet most investors felt that was only likely when BOJ chief Haruhiko Kuroda stepped down in April. Japan's 10-year bond yields immediately almost doubled close to the new 0.5% target, with U.S. Treasury and European sovereign debt yields rising in their slipstream. Apart from the timing, the BOJ move marks a significant moment in draining the world economy of central bank liquidity pumped in to support economies during the pandemic.

☆ Morning Bid: Wild oil ride amid China and crypto woe
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] General view of the oil refinery, part of Grupa Lotos taken over by PKN Orlen in 2022, in Gdansk, Poland August 9, 2022. Turbulence in oil, China's COVID crunch and unravelling cryptocurrencies make for uncomfortable reading for investors starting to parse what looks like a recessionary year ahead. Higher interest rates and slowing economies dominate most 2023 outlooks, not least Tuesday's latest from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Underlining the growth gloom, China's battle with COVID and its widening curbs only seemed to worsen. Pain in the crypto world continued, with many investors fearing the fallout from the collapse of exchange FTX is just beginning.

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