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☆ The 2024 presidential election may come down to swing states' results. Here's where Trump and Harris lead in the polls.
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( John L. Dorman | Kelsey Vlamis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

Georgia2012 margin: Romney +7.8%Advertisement2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%Related storiesFor decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. Two years later, Biden won Georgia by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual 2021 runoff victories of Sens. Pennsylvania2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%AdvertisementBiden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. Wisconsin2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%Advertisement2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically divided states in the country. But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, —, Joe Biden, Harris, Kevin McCarthy of, Mike Johnson of, suburbanites, Roe, Wade, Trump, Bill Clinton, Kansas Sen, Bob Dole, Barry Goldwater, Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Biden, Katie Hobbs, MAGA, Kari Lake, Sen, Mark Kelly, Republican Blake Masters, Adrian Fontes, Hobbs, Mark Finchem, Ruben Gallego, Stacey Abrams —, Georgia —, Abrams, Sens, Raphael Warnock, Jon Ossoff, Kelly Loeffler, David Perdue, midterms, Warnock, Republican Herschel Walker, Walker, Brian Kemp, Gretchen Whitmer, Dana Nessel, Jocelyn Benson, Obama, Clinton, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, Steve Sisolak, reelecting Sen, Catherine Cortez Masto, Adam Laxalt, — Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, Susie Lee —, Arizona GOP Sen, John McCain, Josh Stein, Mark Robinson, Roy Cooper, Gov, John Fetterman, GOP Sen, Pat Toomey, Josh Shapiro, Tom Wolf, Al Gore, John Kerry eked, Tony Evers, Scott Walker —, Tammy Baldwin, Evers, Tim Michels, Ron Johnson, Mandela Barnes Organizations: Swing, Sun, Service, Democratic, Republican, House, Republicans, State, Massachusetts Gov, Trump, Democratic Rep, GOP, Republican Party, Georgia, Gov, Michigan, Silver State, Democratic Gov, North Carolina, Arizona GOP, Romney, Democrats, Senate, Badger State Locations: Midwest, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Israel, Kevin McCarthy of California, Mike Johnson of Louisiana, Kansas, Massachusetts, Ruben Gallego . Georgia, Atlanta, Detroit, Gaza, Nevada, Silver, Clark, Clark County, North Carolina, North, Roy Cooper . Pennsylvania, Scranton, Philadelphia, Allegheny County, Pittsburgh

☆ Republicans are being throttled in college towns across the country, imperiling their competitiveness in key states
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-23 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

These wins are poised to threaten GOP competitiveness in key states like Georgia and Wisconsin in 2024 and beyond. And Biden won Athens-Clarke with a whopping 70%-28% victory, posting a nearly 22,000-vote margin over Trump. In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by less than 1 percent of the vote. In 2000, Gore won Wisconsin by less than 6,000 votes (48.8%-48.6%) and won Dane by nearly 67,000 votes (61%-33%) over Bush. "What Democrats are doing in Dane County is truly making it impossible for Republicans to win a statewide race."

Persons: University of Georgia —, Al Gore, George W, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Clarke, GOP Sen, Ron Johnson, Mandela Barnes, Madison, Gore, Dane, Mark Graul —, Wisconsin — Organizations: GOP, Service, Democratic, Republican, Athens —, University of Georgia, Texas Gov, Peach State, Georgia, Athens, Trump ., Trump, Wisconsin, Gov, Madison —, University of Wisconsin, Politico, Republicans Locations: Counties, Wall, Silicon, Georgia, Wisconsin, While Georgia, Athens, Clarke County, Bush, Clarke, Peach, Atlanta, . Wisconsin, —, Dane County, Dane, Milwaukee

☆ Are Democrats Actually Winning Older Voters?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

And yet the Times/Siena polls found the generic congressional ballot tied among seniors, at 45 percent support for each party. In a question asking how they voted in the 2020 presidential election, the polls still found Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump, 53 percent to 47 percent, among older voters. Democrats fared better among older voters in the Wisconsin mail survey than in any other major election study. The mail survey found the Democrat Mandela Barnes beating the Republican incumbent senator, Ron Johnson, by 52-40 among older registered voters. In the high-incentive mail survey, voters over 67 in 2022 (meaning over 65 in 2020) said they backed Mr. Biden by 55-38 over Mr. Trump.

Persons: Biden, Trump, Catalist —, aren’t, Wisconsinites, Mandela Barnes, Ron Johnson, —, Barnes, Johnson, VoteCast Organizations: Times, Democratic, Republicans, Republican, Mr Locations: Siena, Wisconsin

☆ Five states will have politically-split Senate delegations in the new Congress, reflecting the nation's continued partisan polarization
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

The new Congress, which begins this week, will have five politically-split Senate delegations. But in the new Congress, which begins this week, only five states will have split Senate delegations: Maine, Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. AP Photo/Matthew BrownMontanaDemocratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Sen. Steve DainesTester was first elected to the Senate in 2006 and secured reelection in both 2012 and 2018. Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty ImagesWest VirginiaDemocratic Sen. Joe Manchin and Republican Sen. Shelley Moore CapitoManchin is perhaps the nation's most recognizable moderate Democrat, having single-handedly scuttled Biden's Build Back Better agenda in December 2021. WisconsinRepublican Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic Sen. Tammy BaldwinThe Badger State is often home to some of the closest races in the entire country.

NBC News reporters tracked seven bellwether counties as part of the "County to County" project for the 2022 midterm elections. However, as the Omicron variant swept its way across the country last winter, even Democratic voters were in a sour mood, showing pandemic fatigue amid Biden’s stalled legislative agenda. Democrats doubled down on the message even as polls showed GOP Sen. Ron Johnson gaining momentum with a message on crime. For young voters in Dane County, it was a message that worked. Democrats were enthusiastic, and they'll continue to look to Dane County as key to their path to victory in 2024 and beyond.

☆ Six battleground states will hold the key to the White House in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

AP Photo/Andrew HarnikGeorgia2012 margin: Romney +7.8%2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%For decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. Two years later, Biden won the state by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual 2021 runoff victories of Sens. AP Photo/Matt RourkePennsylvania2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%Biden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. AP Photo/Andy Manis, FileWisconsin2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically-divided states in the country. But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.

☆ Fewer states than ever could pick the next president
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

Five states decided the last presidential race by flipping from Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in 2020 – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Democratic and Republican presidential nominees have each carried 20 states in every election since at least 2008. Democrats did not demonstrate the capacity to threaten any of the GOP’s core 20 states, as Republicans did in Nevada. A race with just Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona as true battlegrounds would begin with Democrats favored in states holding 260 Electoral College votes (including Washington, DC) and Republicans in states with 235. After 2022, the list of genuinely competitive presidential states may be shrinking, but, if anything, that could increase the tension as the nation remains poised on the knife’s edge between two deeply entrenched, but increasingly antithetical, political coalitions.

As the political world settled in for a long wait to know who will control Congress, Republicans began finger-pointing Wednesday about whether former President Donald Trump was to blame for their lackluster election night. The Georgia Senate race is headed to a December runoff, NBC News projects, making it increasingly likely control of the upper chamber won't be decided until then. "Now that it’s obvious the @gop should expel the Trump family from its future lexicon," Trump critic and Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois tweeted Wednesday morning. Vance at an Ohio Republican Party election night watch party in Columbus on Tuesday. Will Hurd, a former Republican congressman from Texas, tweeted of the election results, "It’s the candidates, stupid."

GOP Sen. Ron Johnson has won re-election to a third term in Wisconsin, NBC News projects, narrowly defeating Democrat Mandela Barnes. “The votes are in,” Johnson said in an email statement that was released before NBC News and other news outlets made the call. But a successful rebrand, as well as unrelenting attacks against Barnes on crime and criminal justice issues, appeared to help Johnson's standing among voters. His campaign focused heavily on promises to protect abortion rights and Social Security benefits. In the final weeks, Johnson focused on crime in particular, unleashing a barrage of negative ads that highlighted rising crime rates and singling out things Barnes had said about criminal justice reform.

Share this -Link copiedWisconsin Senate race too close to call Wisconsin's Senate race between GOP Sen. Ron Johnson and Democrat Mandela Barnes is too close to call, NBC News says. Vance wins Ohio Senate race, defeating Democrat Tim Ryan, NBC News projects COLUMBUS, Ohio — J.D. Ohio Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance is leading The Senate race in Ohio is too early to call, NBC News says, but Republican candidate J.D. Share this -Link copiedGeorgia Senate race too close to call Georgia's Senate race is too close to call about three hours after polls closed at 7 p.m.

☆ Midterm elections live updates: Pennsylvania races, New Hampshire Senate race too early to call
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Brandy Zadrozny | Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Sahil-Kapur-Headshot.Jpg | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +109 min

Share this -Link copiedWisconsin Senate and governor's races too early to call It is too early to call the Senate and gubernatorial races in Wisconsin, according to NBC News. Share this -Link copiedNew Hampshire Senate race too early to call The Senate race in New Hampshire is too early to call, according to NBC News. Share this -Link copiedPennsylvania Senate and governor races are too early to call After polls closed at 8 p.m. While Maricopa County election officials initially categorized the problem as a “hiccup,” it took hours before a solution was identified early Tuesday afternoon. In Columbus County, election officials allegedly were harassed by an “observer following one-stop workers” and photographing or filming the workers, it said.

☆ Control of Senate hinges on handful of states that could take days — or longer — to resolve
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Dan Mangan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

With 96% of the votes counted in Georgia, the incumbent Democrat, Sen. Raphael Warnock, had 49.2% of the vote, with his Republican challenger Herschel Walker holding 48.7%. But just 69% of the ballots had been tabulated in Arizona, where many voters submitted ballots early, before Election Day. Ballots that were submitted at polling places on Tuesday will take days to have their signatures verified and counted. In Nevada, Republican challenger Adam Laxalt had 49.9% of the vote, compared with the 47.2% of the vote held by Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the incumbent Democrat. Most of the ballots in the state will be mail-in votes, which have four days to arrive if they are postmarked by Election Day.

Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for reelection against Democratic Lt. Gov. Senate Chevron icon It indicates an expandable section or menu, or sometimes previous / next navigation options. (1 District) Chevron icon It indicates an expandable section or menu, or sometimes previous / next navigation options. WI-03 House Governor Chevron icon It indicates an expandable section or menu, or sometimes previous / next navigation options. Barnes has raised nearly $34.6 million, spent $32 million, and has almost $2.6 million in the bank, as of October 19.

The polls will close over a seven-hour period on Tuesday, starting at 6 p.m. Eastern time in parts of Indiana and Kentucky and ending at 1 a.m. in western Alaska. Here is a guide to when the first polls close in each state, and what races to watch at each point. Show times in: Eastern Central Mountain Pacific Alaska HawaiiPolls open First polls closing First polls closed6 p.m. P.T. Not all polls in each state close at the same time, and polls in some areas may close earlier than shown if all registered voters in that polling district have already voted. There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent candidate.

2020 boundaries Miami Beach Detail Miami Kendall 2022 boundaries The 27th District’s redrawn boundaries now include Republican areas west of Miami. 2020 boundaries 2022 boundaries The 27th District’s redrawn boundaries now include Republican areas west of Miami. Miami Beach Detail Miami Miami Kendall Kendall Miami Beach, which largely voted for President Biden, is now part of another district. 2020 boundaries 2022 boundaries Florida Florida The 27th District’s redrawn boundaries now include Republican areas west of Miami. Detail Miami Beach Miami Miami Kendall Kendall Miami Beach, which largely voted for President Biden, is now part of another district.

☆ Get them on social media and keep it authentic, Gen-Z consultants advise candidates
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-05 | by ( Irie Sentner | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +4 min

“The Gen Z electorate can make or break the election in some of our key races,” said Ashley Aylward, 26, a research manager at HIT Strategies, a Washington-based public opinion research firm focusing on youth and minority voters. The firm was started in 2019 “because we were seeing so many political operatives kind of just dismissing the emerging electorate — young people, people of color,” she said. As more of Gen Z reaches voting age, experts have advised candidates to change their strategies to appeal to new voters. Experts said social media — and TikTok specifically — are key in strategizing for the Gen Z vote in the 2022 election. Experts emphasized that Gen Z cares about authenticity and casualness; candidates can “miss the mark” when they “don’t use the language that young people do," Aylward said.

☆ How Diverse Are the Candidates in the Midterm Elections?
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-05 | by ( Maggie Astor | Eleanor Lutz | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +11 min

The House of RepresentativesThere are at least 403 people of color, women or nonbinary candidates running for seats in the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Incumbent Democrat Republican White men women Black men women Hispanic men women Other and multiple race men womenThere are 11 Senate candidates who are Black this year. Democrat Black candidates Republican Ga. Raphael Warnock Ala. Will Boyd Ark. Incumbent Democrat Republican White men women Black men women Other and multiple race men womenThere are 25 women nominated for governor — 16 Democrats and nine Republicans. Democrat Black candidates Republican Ala. Yolanda Flowers Ark.

☆ Oprah Winfrey backs John Fetterman over Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania Senate race
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Kevin Breuninger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Oprah Winfrey speaks on stage during The Robin Hood Foundation's 2018 benefit at Jacob Javitz Center on May 14, 2018 in New York City. Oprah Winfrey said Thursday she would vote for Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman over Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in the must-win Senate race in Pennsylvania. Herself a talk-show superstar and media titan, Winfrey was the first guest on Oz's early-2000s show "Second Opinion," and she invited Oz on "The Oprah Winfrey Show" regularly for years. Greg Abbott, as well as Stacey Abrams, the Democrat running to unseat Republican Gov.

In an NBC News poll of registered voters last month, economic concerns beat out every other issue. Recent data from three swing states — Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania — sheds light on the varying economic pressures that might influence choices at the ballot box. Tony Evers faces Republican challenger Tim Michels, the job market is hot. Gas prices in the state have recently come down to an average of $3.60 a gallon, compared to $3.76 nationally, after this summer’s nationwide surge. Wisconsin’s metro areas aren’t big enough to be broken out in federal data, but food prices in the Midwest have risen by 12.7% over the last year, compared to 11.2% nationally.

☆ Obama barnstorms Midwest in play to salvage Democrats' 'Blue Wall'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( Natasha Korecki | Natasha Korecki Is A Senior National Political Reporter For Nbc News. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +6 min

MILWAUKEE — Barack Obama did the unthinkable in his 2008 presidential bid, turning out voters in droves to solidify a “Blue Wall,” with decisive wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. "Look, listen — hey, hold on, hold on — hold on, hold up — hold on a minute! In both Wisconsin and Michigan, Obama discussed reproductive rights for women. Obama dominated Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2008 and 2012, only for Donald Trump to capture those same states in 2016. The Senate race is tied.

☆ Obama slammed GOP Sen. Ron Johnson for being out of touch with Wisconsin voters in impassioned rally speech
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( Alia Shoaib | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Obama gave a fired-up speech criticizing Sen. Johnson for being out of touch with Wisconsin voters. He rebuked the senator for supporting tax breaks for private plane owners while wanting to undermine Social Security. Obama pointed out that members of the crowd and their family members were likely on Social Security. "You know why they have Social Security? They had long hours and sore backs and bad knees to get that security," Obama said.

☆ Obama says Republicans are 'not interested in solving problem,' but they are 'interested in making you angry'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Former President Obama said Republicans are disinterested in tackling issues affecting real people. Tony Evers and Democratic Senate nominee Mandela Barnes, Obama quickly summed up what he felt were the leading concerns of the GOP. That's their agenda," Obama said of the party to rallygoers. They're interested in making you angry, and then finding somebody to blame. And the reason I know that's their agenda is, listen, that's their answer to everything," he added.

☆ Obama zings 'birtherism' antics he faced as president while stumping for Wisconsin Democratic Senate nominee Mandela Barnes: 'Get ready to dig up that birth certificate'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Former President Obama mocked GOP "birtherism" while boosting Mandela Barnes' Wisconsin Senate bid. During a Friday rally, Obama mocked Republican campaign attempts to paint Barnes as "different." Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin's high-stakes Senate race. Johnson is currently averaging a 3.4% lead over Barnes on FiveThirtyEight using data from the most recent polls. Tony Evers, who is up for reelection this fall against Republican businessman Tim Michels, defeated two-term GOP Gov.

ATLANTA — Democratic strategists are agonizing about headwinds in the closing stretch of the 2022 campaign, with some fearing the election will be worse for the party than polls indicate. Now comes the moment of truth: Can they pull off one final act of levitation in the sprint to Election Day? “I definitely think that the political gravity is starting to reinforce itself,” said Sean McElwee, executive director of the Democratic-affiliated polling firm Data For Progress. “Maybe they can stretch it to 6 or 7 [points], but I think somewhere gravity kicks in.”“There’s a tightening happening,” Taylor added. The recent NBC News poll found that Democrats led Republicans by 1 point on which party voters prefer to control Congress.

☆ Democrats turn to Obama for midterm miracle, or at least to stem the bleeding
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( James Oliphant | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Obama will hit a fifth state, Michigan, which has a competitive governor's race, along the way. "President Obama remains able to unite base Democrats, persuadable voters, and to motivate demographics less likely to turn out in midterm elections like young people," said Ben LaBolt, who served as spokesman for the first Black president's successful 2012 re-election campaign. "Bringing in President Obama helps to underscore the importance of African-American vote, while also exciting other voters." But Democrats will have to wonder if that will be enough, as recent polling has shown Republican candidates gaining strength across the board. The Senate race is Georgia is essentially tied, even as Walker has been hamstrung by a series of controversies.

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