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Bank of America's global fund manager survey showed the percentage of portfolio managers who are overweight U.S. stocks soared to 29% — its highest level since August 2013 — from 10% before the U.S. presidential election. Small caps, which stand to benefit greatly from less regulation, reduced taxes and faster economic growth, have outperformed large caps since the election. .SPX DJIA,.IXIC,IWM YTD mountain SPX, Nasdaq, Dow and IWM year to date BofA's chief investment startegist Michael Hartnett noted this trend is likely to continue. "Post-election results show net 35% [of fund managers surveyed] expect small caps to outperform large caps, which would have been the most since Feb'21," he said. This would make it next to impossible for the Federal Reserve to justify lowering interest rates, which could hurt equities — especially small caps.
Persons: , Stocks, Donald Trump, Russell, SPX DJIA, startegist Michael Hartnett Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Atlantic, Nvidia Locations: Nasdaq
Fully 90% expect a "soft landing," or "no landing" at all (i.e. That's not the case here: the Fed is cutting rates going into, at worst, a soft landing, which is very unusual. The S & P 500 was up 2.0% in September and is higher by 0.9% so far in October. Historically, the S & P tends to rise beginning in the last week of October and through November and December. Goldman Sachs noted that, since 1928, the median S & P 500 return from October 15 to December 31 has been 5.17%.
Persons: That's, Alicia Levine, BNY, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, buybacks, Stocks, there's, AAII, BofA Organizations: America, Trump, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Fed, buybacks, American Association of Locations: U.S, frothy
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Breather from rally U.S. markets fell Monday, weighed down by a drop in semiconductor stocks and a 8.1% slide in UnitedHealth . Tech stocks fell 6.36%, while telecoms stocks rose 1.97%. Indeed, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who's a member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, noted that the central bank is "a long way from where [rates are] likely to settle."
Persons: ASML, there's, They're, Michael Hartnett, Mary Daly, who's, Dow, Piper, Craig Johnson, , Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Alex Harring Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, UBS, Tech, ASML's, Bloomberg, Nvidia, AMD, Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Survey, U.S . Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Federal Locations: New York City, U.S, Tuesday's, Netherlands, ., Beijing
A contrarian sell signal recently flashed in the stock market, according to Bank of America. AdvertisementA sell signal in the stock market just flashed for the first time since February 2021, according to a note from Bank of America. The sell signal has typically preceded weak returns in the short term. The sell signal from Bank of America flashes at a time when stocks are trading near record highs. As to potential risks in the market, investors are most worried about geopolitical conflicts, which rose to 33% from 19% last month.
Persons: BofA, , Michael Hartnett, Jun, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Service Locations: China
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineDespite markets falling Tuesday, there's still plenty to like about their current state. Weighed down by ASML's 16% dive and a report by Bloomberg on potential AI-chip export controls, semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and AMD fell 4.7% and 5.2% respectively. Still, investors are the most bullish in four years, according to the October BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.
Persons: DJI, Spencer Platt, there's, They're, Michael Hartnett, Mary Daly, who's, Dow, Piper, Craig Johnson, , Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Alex Harring Organizations: AMD, New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, ASML's, Bloomberg, Nvidia, Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Survey, U.S . Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Federal Locations: U.S, Beijing
Rollovers from a workplace retirement plan to an IRA are common after reaching certain milestones like changing jobs or retiring. watch nowAbout two-thirds of rollover investors hold cash unintentionally: 68% don't realize how their assets are invested, compared to 35% who prefer a cash-like investment, according to Vanguard. The asset manager surveyed 556 investors who completed a rollover to a Vanguard IRA in 2023 and left those assets in a money market fund through June 2024. "IRA cash is a billion-dollar blind spot," Andy Reed, head of investor behavior research at Vanguard, said in the analysis. 'It always turns into cash'The retirement system itself likely contributes to this blind spot, retirement experts said.
Persons: Sergio Mendoza Hochmann, Andy Reed, Stocks, Philip Chao, Grace Cary, they're, Chao Organizations: Vanguard, Vanguard IRA, Finance, Security Locations: John , Maryland
In an August 1 note to clients, the bank's top global strategist urged investors to sell stocks when the Federal Reserve issues its first rate cut. Hartnett and his team studied the last 12 rate-cutting cycles going back to 1970 and identified three varieties of rate cuts. Hartnett said surging global central bank rate cuts are signs that the economy is in for a rough stretch. Investors expect the Fed to cut rates for the first time this cycle at its September meeting. "Emergency Fed rate cuts being priced in makes little sense given the economic backdrop in the U.S. and would only serve to destroy policy maker credibility."
Persons: , America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Louis, Jean, Louis Nakamura, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, Hartnett's, Jim Smigiel Organizations: Service, America's, Federal Reserve, Business, Bank of America Bank of America, Bank of America, Louis Fed, Bank of America's, Global, SEI Locations: U.S
AdvertisementSt. Louis FedDespite the Sahm Rule's impressive history, it is sometimes criticized because it fails to account for rising labor participation, which can raise the unemployment rate. In addition to downcast labor market data, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell further into contraction territory this week, signaling that US manufacturing continues to slow. The market's direction also depends on how investors interpret interest rate cuts alongside future data. Fed funds rate futures markets are now pricing in a 50-basis-point cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. AdvertisementHartnett and his team analyzed Fed rate-cutting cycles and identified three different types of rate cuts — cuts into a soft landing, cuts into a hard landing, and panic cuts, which are due to a credit event or some sort of Wall Street crisis.
Persons: , Claudia Sahm —, Louis Fed, Piper Sandler, Tom Essaye, Jack McIntyre, Lara Castleton, Janus Henderson, Michael Kantrowitz, we've, Kantrowitz, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Labor, Brandywine Global, ISM, Nasdaq, Fed, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Bank of America, Fund
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewBank of America's latest Global Fund Managers survey found that shadow banking has surpassed commercial real estate as the likeliest culprit of a future credit event. In June's survey, commercial real estate held the top spot. Related storiesMeanwhile, BofA's survey indicates that fund managers are still keeping their eyes on commercial real estate, a sector that has wobbled under the weight of high interest rates. Between tighter monetary policy and a significant pullback in office demand, worry has mounted regarding whether commercial real estate entities can pay off their debt.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, BofA Organizations: Service, America's, Global Fund, Business, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, JPMorgan Locations: H2'24
Traders are gearing up for an increase in volatility around the November elections in the United States, according to one market indicator. Stacey Gilbert, CIO of Glenmede Investment Management, said that the futures market for the Cboe Volatility Index is showing a distortion around the November election. Vix futures are basically a way to bet on or hedge against where the index will be trading at the time of expiration. The expectation for volatility around this election is pretty sizable," Gilbert said. "It would stand to reason that the Vix, or volatility in general, would increase around then," he added.
Persons: Stacey Gilbert, Gilbert, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, it's, Clissold Organizations: Glenmede Investment Management, Republican, Democratic, Bank of America, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Republicans Locations: United States, U.S
With stocks set to close out a strong first half of 2024, investors have just one more key inflation hurdle to clear in the week ahead: May's personal expenditure report. Next week's personal consumption expenditure data, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, could show whether that overall picture is intact. May's consumer price index, for example, showed no increase from the prior month. Last month's producer price index , a measure of wholesale prices, unexpectedly dropped from the previous reading. Pending Home Sales Index (May) 11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (June) Earnings: Nike, Walgreens Boots Alliance , McCormick & Co. Friday June 28 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Stocks, Terry Sandven, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Scott Chronert, Brian Leonard, Leonard, Bank's Sandven, Sandven, Mills Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, U.S, Bank Asset Management, Federal, PCE, Bank of America Securities, Wall, Keeley, Advisors, FedEx, Dow, Nasdaq, Dallas Fed, Chicago, Richmond Fed, Carnival, New, Micron Technology, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Nike, Walgreens Boots Alliance, McCormick, Chicago PMI Locations: . Kansas, Chicago, Michigan
By far, the most dominant trade on Wall Street is going long the "Magnificent Seven." Investors are the most bullish they've been on the mega-cap tech stocks going back to October 2020, the firm found. In fact, about 69% of respondents were bullish on the group, making the Magnificent Seven the most crowded trade for 15 straight months. One highly contrarian trade Bank of America identified could be going long bonds. Going long oil is another contrarian trade that could work as an hedge against geopolitical risk, the Wall Street firm said.
Persons: they've, What's, BofA Organizations: Bank of America Securities, Bank of America
Investors are the most bullish they've been since November 2021, according to the global fund manager survey (FMS) released Tuesday from Bank of America Securities. Halfway through 2024, the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are each at records , on Monday closing once again at all-time highs. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2024. In November 2021 — the last time Wall Street was this bullish — the S & P 500 capped off a strong year, advancing more than 26%. 1 risk on investors' minds (according to 32% of investors, down from 41% in May), followed by geopolitics (22%, up from 18%), and the U.S. presidential election (16%, up from 9%).
Persons: they've, Michael Hartnett Organizations: Investors, Bank of America Securities, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, U.S, CNBC
The 30-stock Dow slid 605.78 points, or 1.53%, and closed at 39,065.26 for its worst session of the year. The S&P 500 dropped 0.74%, closing at 5,267.84, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 0.39% to end at 16,736.03. Stocks fell Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average registering its worst day of 2024, as a post-earnings rally in Nvidia failed to lift the broader market. With its market cap of more than $2.5 trillion, Nvidia also has considerable sway over the broad S&P 500 . More than 400 names in the S&P 500 were lower, and information technology was the only positive sector for the day.
Persons: Stocks, Dow Jones, it's, Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow, Boeing, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Nvidia, . Services, Global, Federal Reserve, Traders Locations: New York City
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewMarkets underestimate inflation's likely endurance, as an array of factors keep price upside churning, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told Bloomberg TV. "I think the underlying inflation may not go away the way people expect it to," he told the outlet at the JPMorgan Global Markets Conference. AdvertisementIt's a point Dimon keeps reiterating despite market bullishness, as investors keep trading on the premise that subsiding inflation allows interest rates to eventually ease. In his annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders published last month, he expressed similarly doomy outlooks concerning inflation, interest rates and the economy's trajectory.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, Dimon's, he's, Dimon Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Global Markets, Business, Bank of America's, Global Fund Locations: Bank, China, Beijing, Russia, United States
Stocks are vulnerable to a stagflation or hard landing rebound, says Bank of America's Michael Hartnett. AdvertisementStock markets face downturn risk if stagflation or recession anxiety re-materializes, Bank of America's top global strategist Michael Hartnett wrote on Tuesday. "Sentiment not at 'close-eyes-and-sell' levels but risk assets vulnerable to more evidence of stagflation," he noted in the bank's latest Global Fund Manager Survey. Although outlooks have since calmed, stagflation seemed like a growing possibility last month, when estimate-beating inflation data eclipsed shallow first-quarter GDP. Stagflation may have some part to play, as inflation remains the leading tail risk, while fears of an "economic hard landing" grew stronger.
Persons: America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, , Michael Hartnett, stagflation Organizations: America's, Service, materializes, Bank of America's, Global Fund, Survey, Japan Utilities, Federal Reserve Locations: China, Europe, Japan
But with the market at an all-time high, now is probably a good time to hedge against potential downside, experts say. That's especially the case because there's an elevated degree of risk facing stocks, and the cost of some insurance measures is historically cheap. Related storiesThe S&P 500 also looks overextended on a technical basis, according to many measures. AdvertisementRosenberg Research"The definition of a stretched market is one when the S&P 500 gaps 14% or more above the 200-day trendline. Beyond extreme, in fact — back to 1928, the S&P 500 has only drifted this far above the moving average 7% of the time," Rosenberg said.
Persons: Jim Smigiel, they've, Louis Fed, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Steve Sosnick, we're, Smigiel, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bank of America's, Survey, Bank of America, SEI, Fed, Louis Fed Inflation, MRB Partners, Rebels, Rosenberg Research, Interactive Brokers Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Suez
The four-year total return for the S & P 500 since March 23, 2020, is just about 150%, or 25.7% annualized. .SPX mountain 2020-03-23 S & P 500 since the Covid low This is, of course, an idealized starting point from which to measure performance. While the S & P 500 bottomed at around a three-year low under 2,200, the index spent only a few weeks under 2,500. More qualitatively, it's a bull market, and in a bull market the overshoots occur to the upside, so a rally being "ahead of itself" is not fatal. And the S & P 500 is only 9% higher than it was more than two years ago, hardly reaching escape velocity from planet Sanity.
Persons: , Warren, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, bullishness, Rocky White Organizations: HSBC, 3Fourteen, Bank of Japan, Fed, Ned Davis Research, Schaeffer's Investment Research, Intelligence, Bank of America
In collecting this data, the firm saw a deterioration in the Dollar General brand last year. As of Monday's close, Dollar General's stock is up more than 57% from a 52-week low of $101.09 reached in mid-October. Their research found that consumers felt the cleanliness of Dollar General's stores, a top five driver of satisfaction, lagged key peers Dollar Tree and Family Dollar, and fell 2% further in February. Until November, shoppers rated Family Dollar and Dollar General's product offerings more or less on a par with each other. In addition to Dollar General's own challenges, all dollar stores are likely being hurt by weaker spending among low income consumers.
Persons: Vasos, what's, Todd Vasos, Jeff Owen, Gordon Haskett, Chuck Grom, Grom, bode, Piper Sandler, Peter Keith, Keith, Morgan Stanley, Simeon Gutman, Gutman, Michael Lasser, Lasser, Matthew Boss, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Dollar, DG, Occupational Safety, Health Administration, SNAP, UBS, JPMorgan
Investor sentiment has turned so bullish that Bank of America's Michael Hartnett thinks it's time to consider a few contrarian trades. For the first time since April 2022, investors stopped predicting a recession in the U.S., the BofA survey showed. The Wall Street firm's widely followed investment strategist Hartnett is recommending a few contrarian trades for a "hard landing" scenario this year. He said investors could go long cash and defensive stocks, while shorting technology shares that have led the market rally over the past year. For a "no landing" scenario, where the economy would continue to grow but inflation stays high, the strategist recommends buying commodities, energy stocks as well as the greenback.
Persons: America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: America's, Survey, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Bank of America Locations: U.S
Meanwhile, investors have cut their cash levels to 4.2% from 4.8%, the survey said. "Most bullish FMS in 2 years ... investors go all-in on U.S. tech," Hartnett wrote in a note to clients. For the first time since April 2022, investors became confident enough to predict that the U.S. economy would skirt a recession, the BofA survey showed. The proprietary indicator gauges when inflows or outflows related to stock-based funds point to investors moving too far to either side. Hartnett highlighted a few contrarian trades for a hard landing scenario, which includes going long cash and defensive stocks, and short technology companies.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Manager Survey, FMS Locations: U.S
Read previewThe labor market smashed expectations in January, adding 353,000 new jobs, far above economist forecasts of 187,000. Despite the strong headline number, however, there are signs that the job market is deteriorating beneath the surface. For one, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey is showing some divergence from its payroll survey. "High labor and credit costs are beginning to materially impact corporate profits, which impacts both the labor market and (eventually) the default rate." Still, while there are signs of weakening, there are also signs of improvement in the labor market.
Persons: , Jeff Schulze, today's, Shulze, Louis Fed, Lance Roberts, Ian Shepherdson, Lauren Goodwin Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, of Labor Statistics, BLS, of Labor, ClearBridge Investments, RIA Advisors, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Bank of America's Global, New York Life Investments, ClearBridge
"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.
Persons: , Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan
If you're looking at this year's economic outlook to inform your investing decisions, you may want to rethink that strategy. Investors like Bryant VanCronkhite, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring , agree that the environment is ripe for active management. The days of overpriced equities that benefited from low interest rates will soon hit a brick wall. One option is to take a cue from Wall Street's top analysts — and TipRanks, a financial data firm, has analyzed reams of data to compile useful lists. Below is a set of seven mid-cap stocks that analysts have given "strong buy" ratings with high upside.
Persons: It's, Long, Goldman Sachs, Jean Boivin, Bryant, Organizations: Business, Bank of, BlackRock Investment Institute, Allspring, NYSE, Nasdaq
If you want a sense of how frothy things have become, look no further than the December Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. This is a survey of roughly 250 global fund managers and is a very good gauge of sentiment among fund managers. 1-month average returns: 1.9% (vs. 0.6% in all 1-month periods) 3- month average returns: 3.3% (vs. 1.9%) 1- year average returns: 7.5% (vs. 7.9%) Source: StoneX While eight-day streaks are rare, the Dow has done even better. Last July, th e Dow broke a 13-day winning streak , the likes of which were last seen in 1987. It's currently at an RSI (Relative Strength Indicator, a gauge of momentum over the past 14 trading days) of 85.
Persons: Dow, Matt Weller, That's, Weller, It's Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Federal, Dow Locations: China
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