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[1/2] A worker works on a production line at a factory of a ship equipments manufacturer, in Nantong, Jiangsu province, China March 2, 2020. China Daily via REUTERSBEIJING, June 29 (Reuters) - China's factory activity likely contracted for a third straight month in June, albeit at a marginally slower pace, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, underscoring the need for further policy stimulus to counter weak demand at home and abroad. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion activity on a monthly basis and a reading below indicates contraction. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal. The highest reading in the poll was 49.7, still short of breaking into expansion territory, while the lowest reading was 48.0.

Persons: Nomura, Li Qiang, Joe Cash, Madhumita Gokhale, Anant Chandak, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Thomson Locations: Nantong, Jiangsu province, China, REUTERS BEIJING, Tianjin, Bengaluru

☆ Philippine central bank on hold for rest of year, cut in early 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Veronica Dudei Maia Khongwir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

All 24 economists polled June 13-19 forecast the BSP will hold its benchmark overnight borrowing rate (PHCBIR=ECI) at 6.25% at its policy meeting on June 22. A strong majority of respondents, 14 of 17, forecast rates will stay at 6.25% for the rest of the year with the remaining three predicting a rate cut by end-2023. The central bank, which had previously closely followed the U.S. Federal Reserve in hiking interest rates, is now charting a distinct course. "In later meetings if the Fed hikes, the BSP is likely to stay on hold. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 5.00%-5.25% last week but signaled it may still hike by as much as half of a percentage point by end-2023.

Persons: Eloisa Lopez, Felipe Medalla, Francisco Dakila Jr, Shreya, Veronica Dudei Maia Khongwir, Anant Chandak, Madhumita Gokhale, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, ng Pilipinas, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Barclays, BSP, Thomson Locations: Makati City, Metro Manila, Philippines, BENGALURU, Philippine

☆ Bank Indonesia to hold key rate at 5.75% for rest of year: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

All 34 economists in the June 14-19 Reuters poll expected the central bank to hold its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate (IDCBRR=ECI) at the conclusion of its June 21-22 meeting. Nearly two-thirds of respondents, 15 of 23, said the key policy rate would remain at that level for the rest of 2023, with eight economists expecting a rate cut this year. "Bank Indonesia was one of the first central banks in the region to pause its tightening cycle earlier this year. Mapa added BI would "only consider cutting policy rates should global central banks opt to ease monetary policy." Median forecasts showed a 25-basis-point rate cut to 5.50% in the first quarter of 2024, a slight downgrade from the 50-basis-point cut expected in a May poll.

Persons: Nicholas Mapa, Khoon Goh, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Madhumita Gokhale, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Bank Indonesia, Reuters, " Bank Indonesia, ING, Mapa, U.S, Fed, ANZ, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Europe, Asia

☆ India home prices set to stay above inflation: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, June 5 (Reuters) - Home prices in India are set to hold above consumer inflation, even though interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer than previously thought, a Reuters poll of property analysts found. The May 16-June 1 poll of 12 property analysts predicted national home prices would reach a median 6.0% this year, a modest upgrade from the 5.5% expected in a March survey. "The interest rate cycle is near its end," Arvind Nandan, managing director of research at Savills India, said. Rates are set to stay at 6.50% for the rest of 2023 and start falling early next year. All analysts who answered an additional question said they were bullish about the housing market outlook.

Persons: Arvind Nandan, Anuj Puri, Rohan Sharma, Vivek Mishra, Veronica Khongwir, Madhumita Gokhale, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Reserve Bank of, JLL Research, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Reserve Bank of India

☆ India inflation likely hit 18-month low in April - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Predictions ranged from 4.40% to 5.80%, with respondents expecting inflation to remain below the RBI's 6.00% upper tolerance limit for the second consecutive month. "Food inflation was a mixed bag on the month, with cereals and vegetables easing, whilst pulses and milk rose. "With inflation off the boil besides core (inflation), the RBI is likely to remain on an extended pause." However, inflation was expected to remain well above the RBI's medium-term target of 4.0% in the coming quarters, according to a separate poll. The survey also showed wholesale price inflation (INWPI=ECI), which measures the change in producer prices, is likely to have fallen to -0.20% last month compared to a year ago.

BEIJING, April 12 (Reuters) - China's exports and imports likely extended their declines in March, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, as weakening global demand squeezed factory supply chains and order books. Such a result would add to policymakers' concerns about China's fragile economic recovery. Exports have struggled in the months following China's decision to drop its COVID curbs in December, when the world's second-largest economy re-opened. Other Asian exporters such as South Korea and Vietnam have also seen exports decline in the first few months of 2023. Reporting by Joe Cash; Polling by Madhumita Gokhale and Anant Chandak; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ India inflation seen easing in March on softening food price rises: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT, April 12BENGALURU, April 6 (Reuters) - India's consumer inflation likely eased in March to 5.80% thanks to softer food price rises, dipping below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit for the first time this year, a Reuters poll of economists found. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, is expected to have moderated due to falling vegetable prices, offset in part by surging cereal prices. If realised, this would be the only month this year so far inflation is reported below the 6.00% RBI upper tolerance limit. But with oil prices having surged more than 20% from their recent lows, fuel is likely to push inflation back up again. Inflation was expected to average 5.2% in the current fiscal year, well above the medium-term target of 4.0%, according to a separate Reuters poll.

☆ Indian rupee set to weaken further in coming months: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, April 5 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, one of the worst-performing Asian currencies last year, will fall further in the coming months and is expected to drift back to trade around where it is now in 12 months, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists. Median forecasts from 40 respondents to a March 31-April 4 Reuters poll showed the rupee trading at 82.40/dollar by the end of the month and 82.55/dollar by the end of June. However, a fifth of respondents forecast the currency will change hands at 82.90/dollar or weaker as early as next month. A strong majority of poll respondents who answered an additional question, 13 of 16, said risks to their forecast were skewed towards the rupee being even weaker over the next month. "A key driver of the Indian rupee will continue to be the RBI's FX intervention strategy," noted Lin Li, head of global markets research Asia at MUFG.

☆ RBA to hike rates 25 bps on April 4 but decision on a knife edge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, March 31 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank is expected to go for a final 25 basis point interest rate hike to 3.85% on Tuesday, although forecasts from economists polled by Reuters suggest the decision on whether to hike or hold rates is on a knife edge. However, eight of the 13 economists expecting a pause pencilled in a rate hike sometime in the second quarter. Although CBA and Westpac forecast a pause in April, they expect one more rate hike in the second quarter. Minutes from the March meeting showed RBA board members reconsidered the case for a pause at the following meeting, noting monetary policy was already in restrictive territory and the economic outlook was uncertain. Although the median forecast showed the cash rate would remain at 3.85% until the end of 2023, five economists predicted it to peak at 4.10%.

☆ RBI to raise rates once more on April 6 but leave door open for more - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A majority of economists in the March 23-28 Reuters poll also said the RBI would then keep the rate steady for the rest of the year. A majority of respondents, 20 of 36, said the central bank would maintain its withdrawal of accommodation stance at the April meeting. Until that is behind us, the RBI probably will not be very comfortable in signalling that they are done with rate hikes," said QuantEco's Kumar. In last month's poll, all economists said the bigger risk was it would be higher than they predicted. The Indian economy was forecast to grow 6.9% this fiscal year and then slow to 6.0% in the next.

☆ India current account deficit likely narrowed to 2.7% of GDP in Q4
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The median forecast of 22 economists polled March 16-23 showed a current account deficit of $23.0 billion in October-December 2022, or 2.7% of gross domestic product (GDP). More than half of the expected narrowing is due to a reduction in the goods trade deficit, suggesting weakening domestic demand in Asia's third-largest economy. India's merchandise trade deficit shrank to $72.79 billion last quarter, compared to $78.32 billion in July-September, according to ministry of commerce data. These are the two reasons why we are seeing that the (current account deficit) numbers are better." A separate Reuters poll of economists who had a longer-term view forecast the current account gap to average 3.0% of GDP this fiscal year before shrinking to 2.6% in the next.

Summary Poll dataBENGALURU, March 7 (Reuters) - India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates and a weak global economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts who have barely changed their forecasts from three months ago. Defying a global trend of falling housing prices as mortgage rates rise and crimp affordability, India has exhibited resilience and is emerging from a decade-long downturn due to strong demand. A major source of employment in a country of 1.4 billion people where a majority are unskilled, the Indian housing market is likely to remain a stable contributor to economic activity in Asia's third-largest economy. A recent increase in unemployment also raises concerns about the sustainability of the current housing market trend. "Amid rising prices, affordability will only worsen in the coming quarters.

BENGALURU, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, one of the worst-performing Asian currencies last year, is forecast to strengthen very little in coming months and still trade above the 80 per dollar mark a year from now, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists found. The risk, however, is if U.S. inflation does not fall as much as markets are hoping it does in coming months. Even if it's marginally higher than what the market is currently expecting ... that could lead to a brief dollar rally and pressure the rupee." The latest Reuters poll of 43 foreign exchange analysts, taken after the Feb. 1 budget, showed the rupee strengthening just over 1% to 81.75 per dollar in the next six months. (For other stories from the February Reuters foreign exchange poll:)Reporting by Devayani Sathyan and Anant Chandak; Polling by Madhumita Gokhale and Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross FinleyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ RBI to hike repo rate by 25 bps in Feb, ending tightening cycle: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Like many other major central banks, the RBI is expected to then pause, waiting for inflation to fall before considering a shift toward a stimulative stance as Asia's third-largest economy slows. More than three-quarters of economists, 40 of 52, expected the RBI to raise its key repo rate (INREPO=ECI) by 25 basis points to 6.50%, according to a Jan. 13-27 Reuters poll. "They (the RBI) need to pause at some point to see what exactly is the impact of the previous monetary tightening overall on growth and inflation. That is why I believe it is not premature for them to pause after 6.50%," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. A deteriorating global economic outlook also suggests downgrades to India's outlook are likely in coming months.

☆ China's factory activity likely contracted more slowly in January
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING, Jan 30 (Reuters) - China's factory activity in January is expected to have contracted more slowly than in December, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, with production hampered as workers continued to fall sick after the government dismantled its "zero-COVID" regime." While the "exit wave" of infections passed through the population and workforce faster than economists had anticipated, disruptions on production lines persisted. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity on a monthly basis and a reading below indicates contraction. The official manufacturing PMI, which largely focuses on big and state-owned firms, and its survey for the services sector, will be released on Tuesday. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Feb. 1.

☆ Indian govt to borrow a record 16 trillion rupees in fiscal 2023/24 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Gross borrowing next fiscal year is expected to hit 16.0 trillion rupees, up from an estimated 14.2 trillion rupees in 2022/23, according to the median forecast of 43 economists. Predictions were in a narrow range of 14.8 trillion to 17.2 trillion rupees. Even if it is at the lower end of the range, 2023/2024 gross borrowing would easily be the highest on record. Nim estimated repayments for 2023/24 at about 4.4 trillion rupees. India's government will cut food and fertiliser subsidies to 3.7 trillion rupees, more than 25% below the level of around 5 trillion rupees budgeted for 2022/23, the poll found.

Food and fertiliser subsidies that help two-thirds of India's 1.4 billion people will also be scaled back, according to the survey. But private investment has lagged New Delhi's lead for about a decade. Capex is set to increase in fiscal 2023/24 by about 17% to 8.85 trillion Indian rupees ($109 billion), from an estimated 7.50 trillion rupees in the current fiscal year, itself up roughly 35% on a year before. Reuters Poll: Indian budget projections - 1The total of public and private investment as a proportion of the economy has declined since 2014, when Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party swept to power. The poll also found the government would cut food and fertiliser subsidies by 26% to 3.7 trillion rupees from almost 5.0 trillion rupees expected during the current fiscal year.

☆ Malaysia central bank to hike rates to 3.00% on Thursday: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Sujith Pai | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) became in May last year one of the first Asian central banks to hike rates in the current cycle and has added a cumulative 100 basis points. Median forecasts in the poll showed inflation to average 3.0% this year, an upgrade from the 2.8% predicted in October. All but one of 27 economists in the Jan. 10-16 Reuters poll forecast the central bank to hike its overnight policy rate (MYINTR=ECI) to 3.00%, where it was before the pandemic, at its meeting on Jan. 19. While a slim majority of respondents, 13 of 24, expected rates to still be 3.00% at end-March, 10 of them had a 3.25% forecast. Nearly 60% of economists, 14 of 24, expected rates to reach 3.25% or above by end-June, a quarter point higher from a November poll.

BENGALURU, Jan 6 (Reuters) - A budget that accelerates fiscal consolidation would give more support to the Indian rupee in the near term, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts who forecast the currency would erase a fifth of last year's losses over the next 12 months. A majority of FX analysts, 11 of 17, said a Feb. 1 budget that focuses on fiscal consolidation would help the Indian rupee the most in the near term. None of the respondents expected the rupee to be stronger than 75 per dollar, where it started 2022, at any point this year. Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, said the "fiscal deficit is still too high and needs to be reduced" for the rupee to find some support. "High fiscal deficit will hurt the savings-investment balance, curb improvement in current account deficit, and complicate the RBI's efforts to temper inflation pressures."

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