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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB to cut 'even more aggressively' in 2025 if the economy weakens, ING Bank saysCarsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING Bank, discusses European Central Bank's interest rate cut, saying it was a "very dovish" one.
Persons: Carsten Brzeski Organizations: ECB, ING Bank
Economists have long called for an overhaul of the nation's retirement age laws, currently among the world's lowest, which was set in an era of lower life expectancies. Raising the retirement age would help ease local governments' pension pool cash crunch, Sheana Yue, an economist from Oxford Economics said. Still, "more needs to be done to improve retirement adequacy," Maybank's Tay said, while stating that China needs a stronger pension plan and diversified investment avenues to ensure sustainable retirement savings. China's Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has added a few tools for citizens to check their indicated retirement age on its website and mobile app. China may roll out "another round of delay in the late 2030s, especially if China's pension fund balance is tight," Xu cautioned.
Persons: Erica Tay, Tay, Bruce Pang, Tianchen Xu, Xu, Yue, Maybank's Tay Organizations: Getty, Maybank Investment Banking Group, CNBC, Economist Intelligence Unit, Oxford Economics, Academy of Social Sciences, China's Ministry of Human Resources, Social Security Locations: Fuyang, China, JLL, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBe a buyer in an oversold condition of financials as it develops, says Strategas' Chris VerroneChris Verrone, Strategas Research Partners head of technical and macro research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the tech and financial trades and market seasonality.
Persons: Strategas, Chris Verrone Chris Verrone Organizations: Strategas Research Partners
US stocks tested record highs as Fed chairman Jerome Powell delivered his speech at Jackson Hole. "The time has come for policy to adjust," Powell said, confirming imminent interest rate cuts. AdvertisementUS stocks tested record highs on Friday as Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell delivered remarks at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. AdvertisementOf note about Powell's Jackson Hole speech, according to Renaissance Macro Research, is that it didn't include the word "gradual." AdvertisementIf Friday's surge higher holds, it could buck the trend of the stock market's reaction to Powell's previous Jackson Hole speeches.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Powell, , Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic, Powell's Jackson, Steve Sosnick, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Federal, Treasury, CNBC, Macro, Interactive Brokers
For investors holding Japanese assets denominated in yen, the decline of the currency led to the value of their gains increasing. McManus isn't the only one who increased his exposure into the Japanese market following the early August sell-off. Before the yen started to strengthen, "Japanese investors could benefit because their lives and portfolios are denominated in yen. As a result, an appreciating yen will help overseas investors realize gains from the Japanese market as it continues its rebound. "This suggests that, if the cycle is heading towards [a] period of persistent yen strength, global investors should overweight Japan," Jefferies said.
Persons: , we're, Janus Henderson, Julian McManus, McManus, Jefferies, Shrikant Kale, Janus Henderson's McManus, Morgan Stanley, Daniel Blake, Peter Perkins, Perkins Organizations: Toyota, Bank of, U.S, Nikkei, Bank of America, Macro Research, Partners, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI have no confidence the unemployment rate will stay where it is, says Renaissance's DuttaNeil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research, joins 'Taking Stock' to talk what to expect from the Federal Reserve going forward.
Persons: Renaissance's Dutta Neil Dutta Organizations: Macro, Federal Reserve
For now, Fed officials think the ongoing slowdown in hiring and a recent tick up in joblessness suggest the labor market is returning to normal after a few years of booming hiring. But while that approach is cautious when it comes to price increases, it could prove to be risky when it comes to the labor market. But that chain reaction can come at a serious cost to the job market. For now, Fed officials think that the ongoing slowdown in hiring and a recent tick up in joblessness signal that labor market conditions are returning to normal after a few years of booming hiring. Fed rate moves take time to work, so if the central bank only starts to cut borrowing costs when the job market is showing serious signs of strain, it could be moving too late.
Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, Mr, Neil Dutta, ” Mr, , Organizations: Federal Reserve, Macro Locations: joblessness,
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGood opportunity to buy into weakness with the Nikkei, says Renaissance's Jeff DeGraafJeff DeGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk bitcoin, copper, the Japanese Nikkei and more.
Persons: Jeff DeGraaf Jeff DeGraaf Organizations: Nikkei, Macro, Japanese Nikkei Locations: Japanese
US stocks gave back gains to trade mixed on Thursday amid more tech weakness. GDP grew 2.8% in the second quarter, according to advanced estimates from the Commerce Department, well-above the 2.1% growth economists had expected. PCE inflation rose 2.6%, down from the prior reading of 3.7%. Mega-cap tech stocks continued to slide after Tesla and Alphabet delivered disappointing results for the second quarter. Alphabet was down for a second day, dropping another 3% on Thursday.
Persons: , Neil Dutta Organizations: PCE, Service, Dow Jones, Treasury, Commerce Department, Fed, Macro, Meta, Microsoft, Here's
The German construction sector is showing no signs of recovering, even after being in a crisis for months and despite pledges of support and investment from the government. Recent economic data shows the industry is still in a "dismal situation," Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research and chief economist for Germany at ING, told CNBC. The data shows that between January and May of this year, permits for single-family homes fell over 31%, and those for multi-family houses declined over 21% compared to the same time period last year. Felix Pakleppa, head of the Central Association of the German Construction Industry, noted the bleak outlook for the sector. "Building permits in Germany continue to only know one direction: downwards," he said, pointing to the data, which has not reflected growth since April 2022.
Persons: Carsten Brzeski, Felix Pakleppa, Housebuilding, Pakleppa Organizations: ING, CNBC, Central Association of, German Construction Industry Locations: Germany
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket breadth under the surface the last 2 weeks has been absolutely spectacular: Chris VerroneChris Verrone, Strategas Research Partners head of technical and macro research, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the performance of small-cap stocks, and more.
Persons: Chris Verrone Chris Verrone Organizations: Strategas Research Partners
Market rotation builds momentum
  + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket rotation builds momentumJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research founder and chairman, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the latest market moves and predictions.
Persons: Jeff deGraaf Organizations: Macro Research
But don't bet on a soft landing outcome for the US economy as the Fed gets set to cut rates, says famed economist David Rosenberg. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchRosenberg's downbeat views on the labor market come amid his skepticism about the impressive rallies in major stock-market indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. Still, as Rosenberg points out, some say the Fed needs to act urgently as the labor market weakens. Waiting too long to lower interest rates to support the economy will only increase the odds of the job market breaking down." Rosenberg has been consistently bearish on the US economy in recent months, while the labor market has continued to prove him wrong.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Eli Lilly, Russell, Neil Dutta, Dutta Organizations: Service, Fed, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics ', Survey, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Macro
The case for cutting is strong, says Renaissance's Neil Dutta
  + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe case for cutting is strong, says Renaissance's Neil DuttaNeil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research head of U.S., joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk what he expects to see from the Federal Reserve this year and why he thinks we could see at least two cuts.
Persons: Renaissance's Neil Dutta Neil Dutta Organizations: Federal Reserve
Fertility rates across OECD countries have halved since 1960, according to a new OECD report. He said the three countries are disproportionately impacted by a rapidly aging population, largely due to improved standards of living, which have a "very strong inverse relationship with fertility rates." These improved conditions have led to a greater opportunity cost for having children, Xu said. Shrinking workforceA decline in fertility rate puts pressure on the economy and the society at large as the working population shrinks. China's policy shiftsIn China, policymakers have been putting a big emphasis on "productivity growth," Xu told CNBC.
Persons: Leren Lu, Darren Tay, Erica Tay, Tianchen Xu, Xu, BMI's Tay, Tay, Maybank's Tay Organizations: OECD, BMI, Risk, United Nations, Economist Intelligence, Economic Co, National Bureau of Statistics, CNBC, Economist Intelligence Unit Locations: China, Asia, South Korea, Japan, East, Southeast Asia, Maybank
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 24, 2024. Stock futures were flat in overnight trading after a selloff in favored technology names brought the Nasdaq Composite to its worst day since April. During the regular session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked Monday's selloff, adding nearly 261 points, or 0.67%. The S&P 500 dropped 0.31%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.09% for its worst day since April as investors rotated out of semiconductors. Wall Street is looking ahead to earnings from FedEx and Carnival on Tuesday as the season nears its end.
Persons: Jeff deGraaf, CNBC's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, SolarEdge Technologies, Pool Corp, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Broadcom, FedEx, Richmond Fed Locations: New York City, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe summer is historically tough for semis, says Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraafJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the market rotation and the headwinds for the semiconductor sector.
Persons: Jeff deGraaf Jeff deGraaf Organizations: Macro
U.S. job market still 'really strong,' analyst says
  + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. job market still 'really strong,' analyst saysBen Jones, director of macro research at Invesco, discusses the latest U.S. jobs report and the economic outlook.
Persons: Ben Jones
Nvidia is the key to how stocks will perform in the next few months as investors head into a seasonally weak period for markets, with the macroeconomic picture once again a center of attention. Stocks capped a winning month in May after a strong earnings season and signs of easing inflation buoyed investor optimism. .VIX YTD mountain CBOE Volatility Index In fact, the CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street's fear gauge, is currently at 14. The broad market index was last around 5,220. Traders will have to rely on macroeconomic data for the next several weeks, including the May jobs report that's on deck next Friday.
Persons: Stocks, what's, Olivier Sarfati, Sarfati, Jensen Huang's, Josh Brown, Jonathan Krinsky, Jeff deGraff, CNBC's, deGraff, Rob Ginsberg, JC O'Hara, Roth, Dow Jones, Thomas Urano, Jobs, Cook Organizations: Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Ritholtz Wealth, Semiconductors, VanEck Semiconductor, Macro, Wolfe Research, Advisory, PMI, Manufacturing, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Body, Services PMI, Labor, Girls Global, University of, District of Columbia, Consumer Credit Locations: Smucker, Washington
U.S. stock futures ticked lower Thursday night as investors reviewed a flurry of corporate earnings ahead of a key inflation report. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 42 points, or 0.11%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.15% and 0.20%, respectively. The S&P 500 has climbed roughly 10% this year, but the equal-weighted index is up by about 3%. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a 2.7% year-over-year increase for core PCE, down slightly from the 2.8% gain in the previous read.
Persons: Nordstrom, Salesforce, Dow, They're, Jeff deGraff, CNBC's, deGraff, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Traders, Dell Technologies, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Macro, Qualcomm
Fed could cut rates after 1 or 2 months, analyst says
  + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed could cut rates after 1 or 2 months, analyst saysAlexandre Tavazzi, head of the CIO office and macro research at Pictet Wealth Management, discusses the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move.
Persons: Alexandre Tavazzi Organizations: Pictet Wealth Management, Federal
In today's big story, we're looking at the people preparing for the collapse of the financial system . The big storyPreparing for the worstAdobe; Chelsea Jia Feng/BIOpinions fluctuate on the economy, but one group has a decidedly strong take. In the subreddit r/economiccollapse, users are preparing for a Soviet Union-type fall of the US economy , writes Business Insider's Jennifer Sor. Further down the economic totem pole, ALICEs (asset limited, income constrained, employed) are struggling to make ends meet . 3 things in techAlex Wong/Getty Images, STR / Contributor/Getty Images, Stephane De Sakutin/Contributor/Getty Images, Abanti Chowdhury/BIHow Mark Zuckerberg turned against the news.
Persons: , Chelsea Jia Feng, Jennifer Sor, Jennifer, aren't, Tyler, there's, Neil Dutta, Jim Simons, annualized, Alex Wong, Stephane De Sakutin, Abanti Chowdhury, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Rupert Murdoch, Sam Altman, Alyssa Powell, Rick Doblin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, Business, Chelsea, Macro, Renaissance Technologies, Big Tech, Apple, FDA, FOX Locations: Soviet Union, China, Washington, Beijing, New York, London, Chicago
The return of "Roaring Kitty" sparked a jaw-dropping advance in GameStop shares Monday, but such a speculative rally in an unprofitable company will likely end badly once again. Roaring Kitty, the man who inspired the meme stock mania of 2021, resurfaced online with a cryptic image showing a man in a chair leaning forward. GME 5D mountain GameStop Pachter has a underperform rating on GameStop and a $5.60 price target. At Monday's peak, GameStop hit $38.20. During 2021's mania, GameStop shares hit an all-time high of $120.75 intraday, adjusted for a subsequent 4-for-1 stock split in the summer of 2022.
Persons: Kitty, Michael Pachter, Pachter, Jeff deGraaf, he's, deGraaf, Jerome Powell, Bernstein, Mark Schilsky Organizations: GameStop, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Macro
Photo: Christoph Soeder/dpa (Photo by Christoph Soeder/picture alliance via Getty Images)After years of China being Germany's main trading partner, the U.S. looks like it's quietly taking that top spot as the year progresses. Several factors played a role in the change, Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING Research, told CNBC. […] At the same time, decoupling from China, weaker domestic demand in China and China being able to produce goods it previously imported from Germany (mainly cars) reduced German exports to China," he said. China has been Germany's biggest trading partner for years, but the gap between China and the U.S. narrowed in recent years. The U.S. has also long been a bigger market for German exports than China, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC.
Persons: Habeck, Christoph Soeder, it's, Carsten Brzeski, Holger Schmieding, China's, Schmieding Organizations: German, Getty, U.S, CNBC, Reuters, ING Research, Berenberg Bank Locations: Germany, China, U.S
Jerome Saragoussi, Schonfeld's top macro researcher, is set to join Bridgewater Associates. Saragoussi's exit follows the departure of macro trader Ben Melkman for Bridgewater. Schonfeld's top macro researcher is leaving after less than year to join hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates. Jerome Saragoussi, head of macro research and strategy at Schonfeld Strategic Partners, is expected to join Bridgewater in June, according to people familiar with the matter, who weren't authorized to speak publicly about the move. The move reunites Saragoussi with macro trader Ben Melkman, who recently joined Bridgewater, the industry's largest hedge fund by assets, in a senior role after a brief spell at Schonfeld.
Persons: Jerome Saragoussi, Ben Melkman, Schonfeld, Colin Lancaster, Mitesh, weren't Organizations: Bridgewater Associates, Schonfeld Strategic Partners, Bridgewater, Business Locations: Bridgewater
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