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☆ Big earnings disappointments spoiled the stock market party this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( Pia Singh | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A torrent of big-name earnings hit the stock market this week — and the majority did not live up to analysts' muted expectations. Of the S & P 500 companies that have reported so far, about 74% of companies have beaten earnings expectations . But their blended earnings growth rate, which includes the reports already out and estimates for those on the docket, is 3.4%, falling short of the 4.2% estimate. The growth rate of just the companies that have posted so far is 3.1%, according to FactSet. Tech stocks buoyed the market on Friday ahead of their looming earnings reports, lifting the Nasdaq Composite to a record high.

Persons: Philip Morris, ServiceNow, Phillip Colmar, Colmar Organizations: CNBC, MRB Partners, Tech, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Locations: Colmar

☆ Why a 'no landing' scenario may take place after all
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A soft landing occurs when economic growth slows just enough to bring down inflation below the Federal Reserve's 2% target without tipping the economy into a recession. She thinks the economy is experiencing a no-landing scenario as it continues to expand without slowing down. "So far, clearly bank earnings are coming in better than expected, both top line and bottom line. "The other thing that that's showing [is] that our call for the 'no landing' is actually playing out." It's not just bank earnings that point to solid economic growth.

Persons: BNY Wealth's Alicia Levine, Levine, It's, Peter Perkins Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, U.S, MRB Partners Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ Hedge funds do an about-face on the China trade, selling stocks in record numbers
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Hedge funds that recently flocked into Chinese stocks on stimulus hopes just did a 180. The net selling was 1.4 times larger than the previous record, Goldman said. "As NDRC underwhelmed, hedge funds rapidly sold off Chinese equities," Goldman strategists said in a note to clients on Wednesday. "Hedge funds not only unwound their long positions but added shorts to their books as well, with long sells being double the amount of short sells." Hedge funds had only just piled into the developing market at a record pace one week before , as Beijing's rare stimulus blitz unleashed newfound optimism.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Tepper, Mehran Nakhjavani Organizations: National Development, Appaloosa Management, CNBC, China's CSI, MRB Partners Locations: China

☆ India has emerged as one of the best global markets for the long haul. Here are the drivers—and how to play the rally
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Pia Singh | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

India's recent stock market surge has investors viewing the country as an emerging market poised for long-term outperformance. The India NSE Nifty 50 Index , the country's domestic stock market benchmark, has soared 18.7% this year, hitting record levels. "The data show that, historically, the Indian market has offered robust returns with reduced volatility." Going back to 2015, INDA has seen bigger annual gains and smaller declines than the broader emerging market fund. How to play the Indian market Financials are among investors' favorite spots in India's booming stock market.

Persons: It's, Malcolm Dorson, Dorson, GlobalX, Russell, —, EEM, INDA, Amr Abdel Khalek, Khalek, Jerome Powell, Venugopal Garre, Krishna Mohanraj, You've, Mohanraj Organizations: India NSE, Global, CNBC, U.S, Federal, Fed, Nasdaq, China, MRB Partners, Traders, Barclays, Diamond Hill Capital Management, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI, HDFC, Whitehaven Coal, Prestige Estates Locations: India, China, Dorson, U.S, Whitehaven

☆ Brazil recently hit a record high. Why further gains may be harder to come by
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-15 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brazilian stocks have been on a tear, but stubborn inflation could grind the recent rally to a stop. It's a work in progress, and most likely will require further rate hikes by the central bank." BCA Research's Arthur Budaghyan agreed that the Brazilian central bank is unlikely to hike rates for very long. Against this backdrop, Budaghyan advises clients steer clear of Brazilian stocks in the near term. U.S. investors who want exposure to the Brazilian stock market can obtain it through the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) .

Persons: Bovespa, Fernando Haddad, Goldman Sachs, Alberto Ramos, Ramos, Arthur Budaghyan, Budaghyan Organizations: U.S . Federal, CNBC, U.S, Fed, BCA, Banco, MRB Partners Locations: Lower U.S, overcompensate, America, Banco Central, Brazil, U.S

☆ 6 Wall Street experts share why investors could be overestimating how much the Fed will cut rates after August's inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The print is causing concern that inflation may not be going away, which would mean higher interest rates than markets expect going forward. Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer, Regan CapitalWeinand says the market's current outlook on rate cuts will only take place if the economy deteriorates significantly. If inflation does slow that much, the Fed would likely cut rates faster than just a quarter percent per meeting over the next 3-6 months," Adams said in an email. "However, the stickiness of service price inflation and shelter inflation suggests the Fed will cut rates slower than financial markets currently price in." This would be a disappointment to short-term bond markets that have priced over 250 bps of rate cuts by the end of 2025."

Persons: Brian Rose, UBS Global Wealth Management Rose, Rose, Skyler Weinand, Regan Capital Weinand, Bill Adams, Adams, Peter Perkins, MRB Partners Perkins, Josh Jamner, ClearBridge Investments Jamner, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, CPI, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth, Fed, Comerica Bank, MRB Partners, Investment, ClearBridge Investments, Independent, bps

☆ Investors' hope for a smooth market rotation to new bull leaders ruined Thursday
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The new market theory was that investors would sell some of their high-flying technology winners and buy small cap laggards primed for a comeback when the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates. But on Thursday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost more than 2% , and the Russell 2000 small-cap benchmark lost even more. "If you look in small caps, they don't have their earnings follow through. The senior global market strategist said he's unfavorable on small caps as the stocks lack strong fundamentals and many fail to generate a profit. The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks gained 10.10% in July, posted its best monthly performance since December 2023, when it gained 12.05%.

Persons: Russell, Phillip Colmar, Sameer Samana, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Partners, Wells Locations: Colmar, Wells Fargo, Samana

☆ The stock market is gearing up for its rate cut era
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Data Thursday showed the economy expanded at a robust 2.8% annualized rate during the second quarter, blowing past economists’ expectations. While the Fed has penciled in just one rate cut for this year, traders are betting on up to three, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. While the market was broadly higher on Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Wednesday logged their worst daily performances since 2022. Shares of smaller companies tend to perform poorly when rates are high, since they have more floating rate debt than their larger counterparts. Investors are also picking at other areas of the market poised to gain when rates come down.

Persons: —, Dow, Russell, Stephen Lee Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Big Tech, Nasdaq, MRB Partners, YouTube, Logan Capital Locations: New York

☆ Two strategists discuss where markets go from here following stocks' worst day since 2022
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo strategists discuss where markets go from here following stocks' worst day since 2022Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, and Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners, discuss the markets' steep sell-off yesterday.

Persons: Peter Boockvar, Phillip Colmar Organizations: Bleakley Financial, MRB Partners

☆ Bank loan loss reserves are high. What that means for the economy and earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Loan loss reserves have perked back up in recent quarters and are at roughly 1.75% of loans outstanding, according to MRB Partners. If the economy only modestly slows, as many economists expect, new loan loss reserves could be smaller in the future. This situation comes as bank earnings were generally better than expected for the first quarter. Lauren Goodwin, chief market strategist and economist at New York Life Investments, agreed that a potential slowing or reversal of loan loss reserves would be positive for bank earnings but said she is cautious about bank profitability more broadly. To be sure, banks may need to increase their loan loss reserves if the economic outlook gets worse.

Persons: Banks, Bob Elliott, Salvatore Ruscitti, Ruscitti, Lauren Goodwin, Goodwin, they're, Unlimited's Elliott Organizations: MRB Partners, Funds, Bank, P Bank ETF, New York Life Investments Locations: Bridgewater, MRB

☆ Now is probably a good time to hedge against downside risk in the stock market. Here are 4 ways you can protect your portfolio — including 2 that are historically cheap.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But with the market at an all-time high, now is probably a good time to hedge against potential downside, experts say. That's especially the case because there's an elevated degree of risk facing stocks, and the cost of some insurance measures is historically cheap. Related storiesThe S&P 500 also looks overextended on a technical basis, according to many measures. AdvertisementRosenberg Research"The definition of a stretched market is one when the S&P 500 gaps 14% or more above the 200-day trendline. Beyond extreme, in fact — back to 1928, the S&P 500 has only drifted this far above the moving average 7% of the time," Rosenberg said.

Persons: Jim Smigiel, they've, Louis Fed, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Steve Sosnick, we're, Smigiel, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bank of America's, Survey, Bank of America, SEI, Fed, Louis Fed Inflation, MRB Partners, Rebels, Rosenberg Research, Interactive Brokers Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Suez

☆ Probability of a market bubble is fragmented, says MRB's Phillip Colmar
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailProbability of a market bubble is fragmented, says MRB's Phillip ColmarPhillip Colmar, Managing Partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners, discusses mega-cap tech, the broader markets, and interest rate expectations.

Persons: MRB's Phillip Colmar Phillip Colmar Organizations: MRB Partners

☆ Will Nikkei's record-breaking rally sustain even as Japan's economy sputters?
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Fuji and Tokyo skyline Jackyenjoyphotography | Moment | Getty ImagesJapan's Nikkei stock index has been on a record-breaking spree on the back of robust earnings and investor-friendly measures. But the country's ailing economy has experts divided over this sustainability of this rally. Japan's corporate governance reforms have been a key driver for the country's stock markets, Momma said, while stressing that stock indexes do not necessarily represent the entire economy that includes SMEs and households. SMEs are a critical lever in the Japanese economy, accounting for 70% of national employment and 50% of the country's economic growth. "Spillover from the global boom of AI-related stocks certainly helped Nikkei," Momma said.

Persons: Kazuo Momma, Momma, Sayuri Shirai, pare, Shirai, Phillip Colmar MRB Organizations: Nikkei, Mizuho Research, CNBC, Bank of Japan, Nvidia, Technology, Stock, Keio University, Bank of America, Phillip Colmar MRB Partners Locations: Fuji, Tokyo, Germany, Japan, U.S, China

☆ Megacap U.S. stocks are carrying the rest of the world. Here are the risks, and where to look for diversification
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Megacap tech stocks aren't just powering the U.S. stock market — they're also holding the world together. U.S. equities now comprise 70% of the MSCI World Index, the benchmark for large- and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets. The MSCI World Index shifts regional and country weights based on broader economic trends. High levels of market concentration in the late 1920s to early 1930s, as well as 2000, coincided with a market top, he noted. The Europe Stoxx 600 has risen only 2.6% year to date, underperforming the U.S. broad market index.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Peter Berezin, Berezin, NVDA, Phillip Colmar, that's, Mike Dickson, Dickson, Warren Buffett's, Colmar, It's, you've, Germany DAX Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, BCA Research, Big Tech, MRB Partners, Horizon Investments, Nikkei, British FTSE, France CAC Locations: U.S, Europe, Colmar, Japan, Asia, Germany, France

☆ How to make your money work for you over the next decade
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( James Faris | William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

"If there is a regime shift, then what has worked could be quite different from what does work," McLennan said. That means the growth stocks that dominated for years may come back to earth in the mid-2020s. He also recommends that investors diversify away from growth stocks that thrived under low rates and instead broaden out to value-oriented names. Valuations explain 80% of a stock's returns over a decade, according to Bank of America. Smead sees energy in stocks in Canada also outperforming in the coming decade, as well as European banks.

Persons: —, Peter Bates, Rowe Price, Damanick Dantes, We're, Dantes, you've, He's, Matt McLennan, McLennan, Kimball Brooker, Morningstar, Nicola Stafford, Stafford, it's, Molina, Bates, Russell, Cole Smead, that's, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, Bob Doll, Doll, Smead, Michael Sheldon, Sheldon, who's, there's, Chris Chen, Chen, Roth Organizations: Service, Business, Global, International, McLennan, First Eagle Global Fund, Eagle Investments, Goldman, Asset Management, Stock, Molina Healthcare, Vanguard Value, Healthcare, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth Management, MRB Partners, Canadian, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Energy, P Bank ETF, RDM Financial, Social Security, Social, Insight Financial, Trust, IRA Locations: Canada, Colmar, United States, Canadian, Europe, Treasuries

☆ Treasury yields are surging. Here's what history says might come next for the bond market.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The yield on the 10-year Treasury is hovering close to 5%, the highest level in 16 years. Here's what history says about the rise in US bond yields and where Treasurys may be headed next. AdvertisementAdvertisementDuring the 1980s and 1990s, he explained, the 10-year Treasury yield was roughly two times inflation expectations, represented by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. As for where the key bond yield heads next, history points to an answer there, too. There's a less than 1% probability, he says, that the 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.5% barring any significant revision higher in inflation expectations.

Persons: —, Christoph Schon, Treasurys, Schon, " Schon, Jerome Powell, there's, Phillip Colmar, Adam Phillips Organizations: Treasury, Barclays, Service, Fed, MRB Partners, Wealth, Federal Locations: Ukraine, New York

☆ Volatility in the Treasury market likely isn't over and the 10-year yield could reach 5%, BlackRock says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The asset manager said the 10-year Treasury yield will probably hit 5%. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US Treasury market is still in for big swings of volatility, which could push the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond to 5%, according to BlackRock. "We have been underweight long-term US Treasuries since late 2020 as we saw the new macro regime heralding higher rates. Over the short-term though, Treasury yields are likely to experience more volatility, potentially swinging in both directions. But the economy is still under pressure from higher Treasury yields, which also work to tighten the screws on financial conditions.

Persons: —, Phillip Colmar Organizations: US Treasury, BlackRock, Service, Treasury, MRB Partners, Fed Locations: BlackRock

☆ Investors count on upward market momentum in the week ahead as earnings rain down
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Stocks could continue to gain momentum in the week ahead as traders turn their attention to earnings results after the past week's softer inflation news. The major benchmarks are headed for a positive week Friday after encouraging consumer and wholesale inflation in June cemented the likelihood that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its rate-hiking campaign. Some market participants expect this period could mark the trough for earnings, and urge traders to pay more attention to forward guidance. "And that's a great sign for the market and market health." ET: NAHB housing market index (July) Earnings: Bank of America , Morgan Stanley , Bank of N.Y. Mellon , Lockheed Martin , PNC Financial , J.B. Hunt Wednesday 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Sage, Rob Williams, Sam Stovall, gee, Stovall, It's, Yung, Yu Ma, MRB, Sage Advisory's Williams, Williams, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Baird's Ross Mayfield, Lockheed Martin, Baker Hughes, Goldman Sachs, Kinder Morgan, Equifax, Johnson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Reserve, Open, BMO Wealth Management's, MRB Partners, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Investors, Bank, N.Y, Mellon, Lockheed, PNC Financial, J.B, Hunt, Housing, Nasdaq, Citizens Financial, Halliburton, Las Vegas Sands, IBM, Tesla, Netflix, American Airlines, United Airlines, CSX, Comerica, PPG, Roper Technologies, American Locations: Wells Fargo, Silicon Valley, Las Vegas, Horton

☆ A China ‘spending boom?’ Your guide to emerging market investing in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-26 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

"We're going to have a spending boom in China, at least in the first half of the year," said Mehran Nakhjavani, emerging market strategist at MRB Partners. How to play emerging markets in 2023 Regardless, there are several ways for investors to get exposure to emerging markets. Perhaps the easiest way is by investing in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). Another vehicle through which to play emerging markets is the First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDex ETF (FEMS) . The fund is the best-performing emerging markets ETF this year, according to Morningstar, with a year-to-date return of just over 1%.

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