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☆ BOJ to end negative interest rates in 2024, over 80% of economists say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Satoshi Sugiyama | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

While none of 26 economists predicted changes in the upcoming December BOJ meeting, many foresaw the negative rate policy, which has set Japan's short-term deposit rate at minus 0.1%, would reach the end of the line next year. In the Nov. 15-20 poll, 22 of 26, or 85%, of economists said the BOJ would end the policy by the end of next year. Having watered down YCC, the BOJ's next focus is to end its negative interest rate policy and push short-term rates to zero, sources previously told Reuters. Close to 85% of poll respondents forecast the BOJ would end its YCC policy, while the rest said it would tweak the scheme again, the poll found. EYES ON NEXT YEAROf 22 economists in the poll who chose 2024 for the end of negative rates, more than a half, 12, opted for the April 25-26 meeting.

Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Hiroshi Namioka, Namioka, Fumio Kishida's, Chiyuki Takamatsu, Satoshi Sugiyama, Veronica Khongwir, Sujith Pai, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of, Reuters, Capital, Research Institute, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, D, Management, Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan

☆ Bank of Japan members saw no need for new yield control tweaks, September minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Most Bank of Japan board members saw no need for additional tweaks to yield curve control and agreed to continued monetary easing to meet inflation and wage growth objectives, minutes of its September meeting showed on Monday. Board members shared the view that long term interest rates were moving in line with its market operation policy following the central bank's decision in July to make yield control more flexible, the minutes from the September meeting said. At the September meeting, the BOJ turned positive about its view on price growth, although central bank board members remained cautious about policy tweaks, Muguruma added. Several members said abolishing a negative rate and yield control policy would have to be discussed together with any successful achievement of the BOJ's 2% inflation target.

Persons: Issei Kato, Naomi Muguruma, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Tom Hogue, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan

The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose 2 basis points (bps) to 0.970%, a level last seen in May 2013, before retreating to 0.960% immediately after the BOJ announced an emergency bond-purchase operation. Tsuruta sees the tweak as a step toward the BOJ eventually exiting from negative interest rates policy, which he expects around the beginning of next year at the earliest. The two-year JGB yield had ticked up to 0.160%, while the five-year yield reached 0.480%, levels not seen since 2011. On the superlong end, the 20-year JGB yield rose to its highest since July 2013 at 1.735%. The 30-year JGB yield was up 3 bps at 1.905%.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Keisuke Tsuruta, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Tsuruta, James Malcolm, YCC, Malcolm said, Brigid Riley, Vidya Ranganathan, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, UBS, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, London

☆ Rising yields may pressure BOJ to consider raising newly set cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The BOJ remains a global outlier having maintained ultra-loose monetary stimulus even as major central banks elsewhere rapidly raised interest rates to fight rampant inflation. Meanwhile, rising U.S. bond yields are pulling their Japanese counterparts higher, complicating the BOJ's task of keeping local interest rates low. Among ideas that could be discussed would be to raise the ceiling for the 10-year bond yield beyond 1.0%, or steps that water down the BOJ's commitment to defend a set yield level, the sources said. "If the 10-year JGB yield rises to around 0.9%, the BOJ may need to take action," such as by raising the 1% cap, she added. In a Reuters poll in September, most analysts said they expect the BOJ to abandon YCC by the end of 2024.

Persons: Issei Kato, BOJ, YCC, Kazuo Ueda, Naomi Muguruma, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Treasury, Nikkei, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, YCC, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

☆ Japan's re-defined intervention trigger may slow, but not derail, yen bears
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] A man looks at an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. While money flow data suggest there was no intervention, the price action was enough to keep yen bears at bay. Rather, the remarks by Kanda were likely a fresh warning shot to markets that authorities could step in any time - even if yen moves were moderate, they say. Intervention isn't the best tool to arrest steady yen declines anyway, said former currency diplomat Hiroshi Watanabe. "There's no point intervening when yen moves are gradual," Watanabe told Reuters.

Persons: Issei Kato, Masato Kanda, that's, Kanda, Tokyo's, Atsushi Takeuchi, They're, Daisaku Ueno, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Hiroshi Watanabe, Watanabe, Leika Kihara, Tetsushi, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: U.S ., Nikkei, REUTERS, Tokyo, Authorities, Bank of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, United States

☆ Analysis: BOJ in a bind as price pressures heighten case for early policy tweak
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But there's no clarity on what the final decision would be," said one of the sources on the chance of a policy shift in July. Lately, however, BOJ policymakers been dropping signs that inflation is being increasingly driven by improving consumer demand. CREDIBILITY ON LINEThere is no consensus within the BOJ on how soon it should start dialing back stimulus. Proponents of early action point to the rising cost of YCC, such as market distortions caused by the BOJ's huge bond buying. "A July policy tweak would contradict the logic the BOJ had been using to justify keeping easy policy," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda's reassurances, Ueda, Naomi Muguruma, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Leika Kihara, Kim Coghill Organizations: Bank of, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, Tokyo, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Bank of Japan

It was the first time the BOJ summary showed a board member explicitly mentioning the need for an early debate of a tweak to YCC, which contrasts with Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks ruling out any imminent change in policy. Under YCC, the BOJ guides short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield around zero as part of efforts to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target. Some market players bet the central bank could tweak YCC, such as by widening the allowance band set around the 10-year yield target, as early as July to address market distortions caused by its huge bond buying. FRESH YEN WORRIESYCC is also blamed by some analysts for causing an unwelcome yen fall that pushes up raw material import costs. However, Kanda stopped short of saying Japan was ready to take "decisive action" - language he used shortly before Japan stepped into the currency market last year.

Persons: policymaker, Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, Daisaku Ueno, MItsubishi UFJ, MItsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, YCC, Masato Kanda, Kanda, Shunichi Suzuki, Japan's, Leika Kihara, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, MItsubishi, MItsubishi UFJ Morgan, MItsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, Finance, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, Asia

☆ World stocks hold on to upbeat mood, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

European stock markets opened broadly firmer (.STOXX), U.S. stock futures pointed to a positive open for Wall Street shares , and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei rallied over 1% (.N225). Friday's non-farm payrolls suggested labour markets remain resilient, boosting expectations for a 25 basis point (bps) U.S. rate increase in May. NEW BOJ CHIEFIn Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.57%, while MSCI's world stock index was up 0.3% (.MIWD00000PUS). U.S. Treasury yields edged down in European trade , with rate sensitive two-year yields last down 3 bps at 3.96%. Brent crude futures rose 61 cents, or 0.74%, to $84.81 a barrel, while U.S. WTI futures gained 68 cents, or 0.83%, to $80.41 a barrel.

☆ Analysis: Japan's upbeat wages may keep new BOJ chief on hook for policy tweak
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

However, a widely expected upgrade in the Bank of Japan's price forecasts due this month may show inflation staying near 2% for several years. "The BOJ will probably upgrade its price forecasts this month. In doing so, it could offer new guidance on future policy and tweak YCC around summer or autumn," she said. With more firms hiking prices and employees' pay, the BOJ may revise up the forecasts and see inflation stay around 2% through fiscal 2025, analysts say. "The BOJ may see scope to tweak YCC as early as June," he said.

Ueda, a 71-year-old former Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board member, will succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second, five-year term ends on April 8, according to documents presented to parliament on Tuesday. Analysts expect Ueda, who had warned of the dangers of premature interest rate hikes in the past, to hold off on tightening monetary policy. "Ueda is likely to focus on theory and empirical analysis in guiding monetary policy," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Upon parliament's approval, Ueda will chair his first BOJ policy meeting on April 27-28. A soft-spoken academic with a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ueda is seen as a pragmatist who can adjust his views on monetary policy flexibly.

The massive buying highlights the increasing difficulty the central bank faces in sustaining its yield control policy, as inflation perks up well above its 2% inflation target. With its heavy-handed intervention drying up bond market liquidity, the BOJ is increasingly relying on a new funds-supply tool to keep the 10-year yield from breaching its 0.50% ceiling. The BOJ's bond buying in January, at 23.69 trillion yen ($182 billion), was the biggest amount on record and exceeded the previous high of 16.2 trillion yen marked in June 2022, central bank data showed. Under yield curve control, the BOJ guides short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield around 0%. The 10-year bond yield stood at 0.480% on Wednesday, remaining close to the BOJ's 0.5% cap.

☆ Japan yields tumble to well below policy cap as BOJ stands pat
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A Japan Yen note is seen in this illustration photo taken June 1, 2017. The yield was at 0.51% prior to the Bank of Japan decision. "If they had expanded the band again or terminated YCC, yields would rise, which would be a de facto rate hike for a second consecutive meeting," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. The BOJ also made use of a newly announced policy tool immediately, offering five-year loans to financial institutions to enhance liquidity, and showing its resolve to keep yields low. At the post-meeting press conference, Kuroda defended the change, reiterating that widening the yield band has made YCC "fully sustainable".

☆ Japan yields tumble below policy cap after BOJ keeps status quo
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The 10-year yield was last down 10.5 basis points at 0.395%, which would mark the biggest one-day decline in seven years. It was at 0.51% prior to the BOJ decision. Ten-year JGB futures jumped when they resumed trading following the midday break, trading up as much as 1.81 points to 146.65, the highest since Dec. 20. "If they had expanded the band again or terminated YCC, yields would rise, which would be a de facto rate hike," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. The 10-year yield has repeatedly breached the BOJ's ceiling, only to close back at the 0.5% limit on each day.

☆ Bank of Japan keeps yield control policy unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

MARKET REACTION:The Japanese stock market cheered the BOJ's decision with the Nikkei share average (.N225) jumping more than 2% after the midday break. Therefore, among equities, we think Japanese financials sector will have a rerating of valuations over the next 3-6 months." That could escalate when the new governor of the bank will be announced and towards the policy meeting in March." MOH SIONG SIM, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK OF SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE"The can has been kicked down the road and the attention will shift to the next meeting. CHARU CHANANA, MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"I think the speculations will still continue.

☆ Japan yields stay above policy cap as BOJ sticks to status quo
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond yields remained above the central bank's 0.5% policy ceiling on Wednesday, after the Bank of Japan unanimously decided to keep its yield curve controls in place. The benchmark yield was up 1 basis point at 0.51% as of 0250 GMT. In a relatively volatile session for cash bonds, the yield had started out flat and then eased as much as 1.5 basis points at one point to 0.485%. The 10-year yield has repeatedly breached the BOJ's ceiling, only to close back at the 0.5% limit on each day. Ten-year JGB futures were in the midday break at the time of the policy decision.

☆ Japan yields top BOJ cap for third day on eve of crucial policy decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The 10-year JGB yield rose 0.5 basis point to 0.505% as of 0820 GMT, although only one trade had been executed so far at 0136 GMT. "There is a strong cautiousness about taking fresh positions ahead of tomorrow," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. So far this month, the central bank has snapped up more than 17 trillion yen in debt, an unprecedented amount that calls into question the sustainability of the programme. The stakes are extremely high for Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his colleagues, with speculators waiting to sniff out any hint that the central bank is headed for the exit door after decades of stimulus. "There's not much left for the BOJ to do except abandon the YCC framework," Muguruma said.

☆ Explainer: What is happening in Japan's bond market?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Junko Fujita | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Market forces have pushed Japanese government bond yields above policy targets. Here is what is happening and what it means:WHAT IS JAPAN'S BOND MARKET? To stimulate lending, growth and inflation, the Bank of Japan has pinned short-term interest rates at -0.1% and 10-year yields around zero since 2016. That swap yield may indicate where the 10-year bond could be if the BOJ left the market alone. "Unless the BOJ reduces its presence in the market and changes its stance that it is controlling the yield level, market liquidity won't improve."

☆ Analysis: Bank of Japan's yield curve control in danger as policy backfires
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

In a sign of its resolve to defend the yield cap, the BOJ on Monday announced plans to conduct additional, emergency bond-buying. To be sure, with global commodity prices falling, private analysts agree with Kuroda that inflation will slow back toward the BOJ's target later this year. It's better to remove the 10-year yield target, but overhauling YCC would raise questions of accountability." Data on Friday will likely show Japan's core consumer prices rose 4.0% in December, double the BOJ's target and a fresh 41-year high, a Reuters poll showed. "If markets continue to ask more from the BOJ, YCC may not last that long."

☆ Japan spent record $42.8 bln in October interventions to prop up yen
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The 6.3499 trillion yen ($42.8 billion) was broadly in line with the estimates of Tokyo money market brokers who thought Japan had likely spent up to 6.4 trillion yen over two consecutive trading days of unannounced interventions. A steep drop in the yen to a 32-year low of 151.94 to the dollar on Oct. 21 likely triggered the intervention, followed by another one on Oct. 24. However, the amount was nearly double the 2.8 trillion yen Tokyo spent last month in its first yen-buying and dollar-selling intervention in more than two decades. The interventions helped to trigger an immediate drop in the dollar of more than 7 yen on Oct. 21, and another dollar fall to the yen by around 5 yen on Oct. 24 albeit temporarily. "This suggested that the Japanese authorities will continue to attack market players selling off the yen beyond 150 yen."

Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File PhotoSummary Yen volatile as Tokyo suspected of intervention for 2nd dayYen plunged to 32-year low vs dollar near 152 yen FridayFX officials remains tight lipped on interventionTOKYO, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The Japanese yen was whipsawed in early Monday trading on suspected intervention by Tokyo for the second straight day, but the efforts to slow the currency's relentless slide was blunted by a dollar riding a wave of yield-driven and safe-haven demand. Japanese authorities again declined to confirm whether they had intervened, but the price action strongly suggested they had. read moreEarly on Monday, the Japanese currency made a thumping 4 yen jump to 145.28 per dollar, indicating currency authorities had stepped in for a second successive day, after a similar move by Tokyo on Friday. If the United States shows signs of its rate hikes peaking out and even cutting interest rates, the yen would stop weakening even without intervention."

☆ Japan securities association says data leaked from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TOKYO, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Japan Securities Dealers Association said on Wednesday client data was leaked from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. The securities company shared 499 cases of confidential information from 401 clients to some of its corporate bond issuers, according to a statement from JSDA. JSDA has since ordered Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities to improve its data protection, it said. Reuters is trying to contact Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Sakura Murakami; Editing by Tom HogueOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: G7 fails to reach intervention deal to ease pain of soaring dollar
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-16 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. With a strong push from Japan, finance leaders of the Group of Seven advanced economies included a phrase in a statement on Wednesday saying they will closely monitor "recent volatility" in markets. "Many countries saw the need for vigilance to the spill-over effect of global monetary tightening, and mentioned currency moves in that context. "I've said on many occasions that I think a market-determined value for the dollar is in America's interest. "It's impossible to reverse the yen's downtrend with solo intervention," said Daisaku Ueno, chief forex strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

☆ Toyota global vehicle output rises 44.3% in Aug to record for month
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) said on Thursday its global vehicle production grew at a record pace for the month of August, as the sector recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic and production capacity increased, mainly overseas. Vehicle production soared 44.3% in August year-on-year, the first increase since March. The world's largest automaker by sales produced 766,683 vehicles worldwide last month, above its target of around 700,000 and above year-ago output of 531,448. Still, Toyota said the outlook remained uncertain due to the global chips shortage and COVID-19 outbreaks. Last week, the company said it plans to produce about 800,000 vehicles worldwide in October, about 100,000 short of its average monthly production plan, due to semiconductor shortages.

☆ BOJ's dovish deputy Amamiya top candidate as next head: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

As Kuroda's right-hand man, he has consistently called for the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose to ensure Japan makes a sustained exit from deflation. Like Amamiya, Nakaso is considered a safe pair of hands with his expertise on central bank affairs. The BOJ's dovish stance has made it an outlier among a global wave of central banks tightening monetary policy to combat surging inflation. "While Kuroda is at the helm, the BOJ's ultra-loose monetary policy won't change," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. "But under a new leadership, the bank could reassess its view on the inflation outlook and thinking on monetary policy."

☆ BOJ to keep ultra-low rates, remain global outlier despite weak yen
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Any such decision could drive down the Japanese currency further from 24-year lows hit in recent weeks, as investors focus on the widening gap between Japan's ultra-low interest rates and the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike plans. "With other central banks hiking rates, the BOJ's negative rate policy will come under the spotlight and may unleash further yen selling." The BOJ's rate review will be the first one for Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura, who joined the nine-member board in July. They succeeded former commercial banker Hitoshi Suzuki and economist Goushi Kataoka, a vocal advocate of aggressive easing who consistently voted against keeping rates steady. A unanimous vote would suggest the two newcomers are unlikely to rock the boat on monetary policy for the time being.

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