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China has announced a local government debt rescue program days after Trump won the US election. Trump has threatened tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods, complicating China's economic gloom. AdvertisementChina announced a debt rescue program to the tune of $1.4 trillion to save heavily indebted local governments and boost its economy. The plan also allows local governments to tap 4 trillion yuan in special local bonds over five years. China's local governments have been struggling to repay their LGFV debt, which the International Monetary Fund estimated to be around 60 trillion as of last year.
Persons: Trump, , Li Kiang, Donald Trump's, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's Organizations: Trump, Service, China, China's, National People's Congress, International Monetary Fund, Reuters Locations: China, Xinhua, Beijing, Washington, Asia, Japan
Chinese Premier Li Qiang spurred market expectations for more stimulus in a speech. China's services activity and business confidence rose in October, boosting market sentiment. Beijing is monitoring the US presidential election and may adjust its fiscal stimulus based on its outcome. He also drummed up market expectations for more economic stimulus, saying Beijing has "ample space for fiscal policy and monetary policy." AdvertisementBeijing is likely to roll out a bigger stimulus to buffer market volatility if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins, Varathan wrote.
Persons: Li Qiang, , Li's, Wang Zhe, Wang, Hong, Harris, Vishnu, Mizuho Bank's, Donald Trump, Varathan Organizations: Service, P Global, Protesters, Caixin Insight, Deutsche Bank, PMI, National People's Congress, Trump Presidency, Reuters Locations: Beijing, China, Asia, Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will have to cut 'more and sooner' than the dot plot has suggested: StrategistVishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, says "we're not sold on 50 basis points all the way through for this year, even though I think the [U.S. Federal Reserve] will have to cut more and sooner than the dot plot has suggested."
Persons: Vishnu Varathan, we're Organizations: Mizuho Bank, U.S . Federal
Read previewMarkets are rebounding after Monday's meltdown, injecting challenges into central banks' interest-rate decisions. The market volatility is due to a mix of factors including poor earnings results from several tech giants and a weak July payroll report. AdvertisementSome analysts are speculating that the BOJ rate cut was because it was under political pressure to shore up the floundering yen, Bloomberg reported on Monday. Related storiesGoing forward, the BOJ could have a harder time with the timing of its rate hike decisions. Talks of an emergency rate cutThe market selloff has also made the Fed's rate hike timing harder.
Persons: , Kospi, Taiwan's Taiex, Kyle Rodda, It's, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's, Capital.com's Rodda Organizations: Service, Business, Bank of Japan, US Federal Reserve, , Bloomberg, Nikkei, Japan's, of Finance, Financial Services Agency Locations: Japan, Asia
Read previewGlobal markets are off to a terrible start to the week. Stock markets are crashing across Asia after Japan's interest-rate hike last week contributed to a selloff that got worse and worse. AdvertisementInvestors are also on edge before the US markets open later in the global day. Global carry trade unwindingThe Bank of Japan raised its interest rate from between 0% and 0.1% to 0.25% on Wednesday — the highest level in 15 years. Japan kept interest rates ultra-low for decades following the implosion of an asset bubble in the 1990s that contributed to persistent deflation.
Persons: , Kospi, India's Sensex, Tony Sycamore, Sycamore, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's Organizations: Service, Stock, Business, IG Australia, Bloomberg, CSI, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, ING Locations: Asia, Japan
Read previewJapan's main stock market index suffered its biggest fall since 1987, closing 12.4% lower on Monday, while markets in Asia and Europe also fell sharply. US stock markets sunk at the end of last week as investors digested a streak of negative economic data and disappointing earnings from Big Tech companies. The Chinese stock markets were already under pressure this year due to the country's economic troubles. Japan kept interest rates ultra-low for decades following the implosion of an asset bubble in the 1990s that contributed to persistent deflation. AdvertisementThe BoJ's rate hike has also fanned further risk-off sentiment in global stock markets.
Persons: , Tony Sycamore, Taiwan's Taiex, Paris, it's, Sycamore, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's Organizations: Service, Nikkei, Business, Big Tech, Nasdaq, IG Australia, Bloomberg TV, Kospi, CSI, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Bank of Japan, ING Locations: Asia, Europe, Frankfurt, London, Japan
Read previewBarely a week after the failed assassination of former US President Donald Trump, investors are already moving on from the "Trump trade." The "Trump trade" refers to investor strategies that reflect the market consequences of a second Trump presidency. Schumacher said the "Trump trade" has run its course and is "about done for now." Focus on Fed interest rate decisionTo be sure, a second Trump presidency — including his administration's trade and tariff policies — would have important implications for the macroeconomy and markets, say most analysts. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the central bank would cut "in the not-too-distant future."
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, Michael Schumacher, Schumacher, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Trump, Business, Federal Reserve, US Treasury, Bloomberg, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Fed, Swiss, UBS Locations: Wells Fargo, Asia, Japan
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. The growth is in part thanks to a shift in supply chains and investment flows as companies try to stop relying solely on China. India's stock markets tanked on the shock election results, with the benchmark Sensex index crashing over 5% in one day on Tuesday following the news. Despite the knee-jerk reaction, most analysts are optimistic about India's economic outlook given that Modi is still in charge. He said India will do better to capitalize on its services industry, especially since so many Indians are English speakers.
Persons: , Narendra Modi's, Modi, Atman Trivedi, China, Council's Trivedi, Vishnu Varathan, Raghuram Rajan, NPR's, It's, Rajan Organizations: Service, Indian, Business, Bharatiya Janata Party, , Atlantic, Asia Center, Centre, Monitoring, Coalition, Albright, Group, Mizuho Bank, United Nations Population Fund, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Central Bank of India, International Monetary Fund Locations: China, India, Communist China, Asia, Japan
Elsewhere, the dollar lost ground against most of its peers and was headed for its worst week in nearly two months, in part due to the sharp rise in the yen this week. The euro ticked up 0.05% to last trade at $1.0730, and was eyeing a weekly gain of 0.35%. "Recent Fed speech has acknowledged the lack of progress on inflation and the desire to maintain the current level of policy rates for longer. Down Under, the Australian dollar edged 0.07% higher to $0.6570, and was on track to gain nearly 0.6% for the week. The New Zealand dollar tacked on a marginal 0.03% to $0.5963, and was eyeing a 0.4% weekly gain.
Persons: Tokyo's, Vishnu Varathan, Jerome Powell, Sterling steadied, Tai Hui Organizations: Traders, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Mizuho Bank, Federal, Fed, Morgan Asset Management, New Zealand Locations: Asia, tenterhooks, Tokyo, Japan
Dollar a tad softer as markets wait for Fed
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Japan's yen was at 158.05 per dollar, up nearly 0.2% in quiet trading with Tokyo markets closed for the first of the country's Golden Week holidays. "The bar is pretty high for a sustained hawkish surprise, which would in turn lift yields," he said, referring to the Fed. "The BOJ disappointment might be transcribed onto the FOMC insofar that they may be more undecided than decidedly hawkish." The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Markets are also on guard for any intervention by Japanese authorities to contain the yen's nearly 11% fall this year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Vishnu Varathan, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Bank of, Mizuho Bank, Market Committee Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Asia, Singapore
Read previewChina's stock market watchdog upped its game over the weekend after its brutal week of selloff, vowing to prevent "abnormal market fluctuations" — but stock market investors don't seem quite convinced. These continued gyrations in China and Hong Kong's stock markets have widened losses that are now totaling $7 trillion following an extended market meltdown since their peaks in 2021, as foreign investors beeline for the exit. Still, Beijing's frequent pronouncements on market stabilization may not be a bad thing. Advertisement"The frequency of these statements may indicate market stabilization is becoming more important for policymakers," wrote analysts at Dutch bank ING wrote on Monday. "Formalization of a potential market stabilization fund could provide a short-term boost for markets but investor sentiment remains downbeat for now, awaiting improvement in fundamentals," the ING analysts added.
Persons: , selloff, Vishnu Varathan, Nomura Organizations: Service, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Business, Asia Asia, Mizuho Bank, Nomura, ING, Bloomberg Locations: China, Asia, Japan, Shanghai, Hong, Beijing
Hong Kong CNN —China’s top securities regulator has limited short-selling, in its latest effort to stem a protracted $6 trillion-dollar stock market rout that began in 2021. The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced Sunday it would “fully” suspend the lending of restricted shares on bourses in mainland China. The Shenzhen stock exchange is the second-largest in mainland China after Shanghai. Bloomberg/Getty ImagesCalm returns but challenges remainChinese authorities have stepped up their measures to stem the stock market rout over the past week. A day later, in an unprecedented move, regulators said they were considering evaluating the performance of the heads of state-owned companies based on their stock market value.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, , Ken Cheung, Evergrande, ” Cheung, Hong, Li Yunze, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Mizuho Bank, Bloomberg, Shanghai Shenzhen, Administration of Financial, People’s Bank of China Locations: Hong Kong, bourses, China, Shanghai, Shenzhen
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMizuho says China's recent policy support is driven by its desire for social stabilityChina isn't boosting the stock market for its own sake, says Vishnu Varathan of Mizuho Bank.
Persons: Vishnu Organizations: Mizuho, Mizuho Bank Locations: China
But geopolitical tensions are growing and Wall Street appears to be underestimating their potential impact on the global economy and markets. The United States and China are squabbling about trade, particularly high-powered AI chips that both believe carry consequences for national security. Less trade could mean lower supplies to meet demand — and that could be bad news for inflation around the world. Bank of America also gave geopolitical risk a top spot on its list of surprises that could affect markets in 2024. It’s the worst start to a year for Chinese stocks since 2016, when investors were ditching their holdings following a market crash in 2015.
Persons: , , Jamie Dimon, dory, he’s, Anna Cooban, Laura He, Hong, Premier Li Qiang, Ken Cheung, Catherine Thorbecke Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, BlackRock, Shipping, CNBC, Economic, Bank of America, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, , Shenzhen Component, Premier, Mizuho Bank, MIT’s Computer, Artificial Intelligence Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, United States, China, Taiwan, Suez, Iranian, Pakistan, Iran, Europe, Asia, Drewry, Yemen, Davos, Switzerland, Wall, Shanghai, Shenzhen
It said China plans to tap offshore funds held by Chinese state-owned enterprises and also local funds. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea's Kospi rose 0.6% to 2,478.61 and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 0.5% to 7,514.90. ADM also said it expects to report profit for the full year of 2023 that’s below what analysts were forecasting. That in turn has relaxed the pressure considerably on the stock market and helped it to rip higher. In other trading, U.S. benchmark crude oil rose 9 cents to $74.85 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Persons: Seng, Tan Boon Heng, , ” Tan, Sunoco, Archer Daniels Midland, Tesla Organizations: Bloomberg, Mizuho Bank, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, U.S ., Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Technologies, NuStar Energy, ADM, American Airlines, Intel, Procter, Gamble, Federal Reserve, Treasury, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent Locations: BANGKOK, Asia, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, China, South, U.S
Hong Kong CNN —Chinese shares haven’t just had a bad start to 2024. The astonishing losses, reminiscent of the last Chinese stock market crash of 2015-2016, highlight a crisis of confidence among investors concerned about the country’s future. But on the same day, major state-owned banks moved to support the Chinese yuan, in order to prevent the currency from falling too fast as Chinese shares plunged, according to a Reuters report, citing unnamed sources. Topics related to the “market plunge” and “China’s stock market rescue” were trending on Weibo on Tuesday. “I’m sad about today’s stock market performance,” Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief for state newspaper Global Times, posted on Weibo on Monday.
Persons: It’s, , Goldman Sachs, Wall, Li Qiang, , Nomura, bedeviling, Beijing’s, Li, Ken Cheung, ” Hu Xijin, “ Hu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Reuters, Bloomberg, Monday, People’s Bank of China, , Big Tech, Xinhua, Hong, Mizuho Bank, Global Times Locations: China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Japan, Asia, Beijing, US, Weibo
The Shenzhen Component Index, a tech-heavy benchmark, had its worst day in nearly two years, plunging 3.5%. It’s the worst start to a year for Chinese stocks since 2016, when investors were ditching their holdings following a market crash in 2015. The country’s economy grew by 5.2% last year. That beat government projections but is still one of China’s worst economic performances in over three decades. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the country’s economic growth to slow to 4.2% this year.
Persons: Ken Cheung, , Europe’s, Premier Li Qiang, Brian Martin, Daniel Hynes, Li, , ” Stephen Innes, managing Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Shenzhen Component, Mizuho Bank, CSI, Nikkei, Premier, Economic, ANZ Research, Monetary Fund, China’s Commerce Ministry, Investors Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, United States
A war over Taiwan could wipe out 6.7% from the US economy in its first year, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis. AdvertisementThe US economy could take a major hit if war breaks out over Taiwan, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis published on Tuesday. US GDP could take a 6.7% hit in the first year of conflict if Washington gets drawn into the war, Bloomberg forecasts. AdvertisementOverall, a war over Taiwan could hit the world's economy to the tune of $10 trillion — or about 10% of global GDP — Bloomberg forecasts. Bloomberg Economics' analysis is based on geopolitical considerations and economic modeling.
Persons: , Xi Jinping, William Lai Ching, Lai, Vishnu Varathan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Democratic Progressive Party, Mizuho Bank Locations: Taiwan, China, Washington, South Korea, Japan, Beijing, Asia
For its biggest banks, however, there's a hitch: a generation of professional front-line staff have little experience with rising interest rates. The 38 members, which include credit dealers and data scientists, work to improve coordination between retail and wholesale divisions, as higher rates are expected to fuel trading activities. Still, if higher rates are new to most bankers, so they are for their clients, who have for years enjoyed rock bottom rates in Japan. "Almost no front-line bankers have experienced short-term rates above 0.5% as Japan last saw such rates in the 1990s," he said. "I think there are a lot of scepticism among front-line bankers over whether they can really increase their lending rates."
Persons: Masahiro Minami, they've, Izuru Kato, Kato, Satoru Yamamoto, Atsushi Kikuchi, Tokyo Tanshi's Kato, Makiko Yamazaki, Ritsuko Shimizu, David Dolan Organizations: MUFG Bank, TOKYO, Resona Holdings, Reuters, Bank, Mitsubishi, Daiwa Securities, Mizuho Financial, Mizuho, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo
[1/2] A Chinese national flag flutters at the headquarters of a commercial bank on a financial street near the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, in central Beijing November 24, 2014. "The outlook change also reflects the increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector," Moody's said. "Moody's concerns about China's economic growth prospects, fiscal sustainability and other aspects are unnecessary," the ministry said. STRUGGLING FOR TRACTIONMost analysts believe China's growth is on track to hit the government's target of around 5% this year, but that compares with a COVID-weakened 2022 and activity is highly uneven. Analysts widely agree that China's growth is downshifting from breakneck expansion in the past few decades.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Moody's, Ken Cheung, Pan Gongsheng, COVID, Goldman Sachs, Gnaneshwar Rajan, Kevin Yao, Tom Hogue, Kim Coghill Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Mizuho Bank, Economic Work Conference, Fitch, China's Finance Ministry, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Hong Kong, China, outflows, Bengaluru
China is drafting a "white list" of property developers for bank financing, per Bloomberg. China's massive property sector is in a slump, adding to the country's post-COVID economic woes. AdvertisementChina's finally starting to do something about the three-year property crisis that's been weighing on its COVID-scarred economy. China's real-estate sector has been mired in a crisis since the second half 2021 when a liquidity crisis at Evergrande — once China's second-largest developer — came into public view. AdvertisementStill, not everyone is convinced Beijing's property "white list" will be the solution to China's property problems.
Persons: , China's, Nomura, it's, Rory Green, Green, White Knight, Vishnu Varathan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, BI, Mizuho Bank, Business Locations: China, Beijing, Asia
TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares traded mixed Tuesday after a rally on Wall Street that was led by gains in Microsoft following its announcement that it was hiring Sam Altman, former CEO of OpenAI, the ChatGPT maker. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 4,547.38, coming off its third straight winning week. Microsoft said it will also continue its partnership with OpenAI, as fervor around artificial-intelligence technology and the huge profits it’s expected to create wow Wall Street. This week is relatively light on reports that could sway the hopes on Wall Street that have underpinned that drop in Treasury yields. In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude fell 61 cents to $77.22 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Persons: Sam Altman, Seng, ” Tan Boon Heng, Australia's, Kospi, Lowe’s, Brent, Stan Choe Organizations: TOKYO, Microsoft, OpenAI, Mizuho Bank, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Traders, Nvidia, Deere, HP, Treasury, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S ., AP Locations: Shanghai, Beijing, U.S
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Against the weaker greenback, the euro hit its highest since August at $1.09365, while the yen firmed at a one-month high of 148.68 per dollar. The Japanese yen remained on the stronger side of 150 per dollar and was last 0.3% higher at 149.17. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1700 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1703 per dollar. The Aussie was last 0.5% higher at $0.6546, having struck a three-month high of $0.6563 earlier in the session, while the kiwi gained 0.54% to $0.6025.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Vishnu Varathan, CBA's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, New Zealand, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, ., Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, China
The yuan struck three-month highs in both the onshore and offshore markets, propped up by China's central bank, while the Australian dollar similarly scaled a three-month top against the falling greenback. "If we do see risk appetite improve again, then the dollar can definitely weaken further." Against the weaker dollar, the euro rose to an over two-month high of $1.0924, ahead of flash PMI readings in the euro zone due later this week. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar edged roughly 0.5% higher to $0.6546, its strongest level since August, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.52% to $0.60235. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1753 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1745 per dollar.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Sterling, Vishnu Varathan, CBA's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, ., Mizuho Bank, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, China
Goldman Sachs Japan chief to retire at year end - internal memo
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
People walk in the Goldman Sachs global headquarters in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 15, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs' Japan president Masanori Mochida has decided to retire at the end of the year after more than 38 years at the investment bank, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters. The internal memo dated Sunday from Goldman (GS.N) CEO David Solomon said Mochida will become a senior director, without mentioning who would succeed his role as president. He became co-branch manager of Goldman Sachs Japan in 1999. "Masa has served as an invaluable advisor to our most important clients across Japan and beyond on countless transactions, helping them advance their strategic objectives with Goldman Sachs at their side," the memo said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Andrew Kelly, Masanori Mochida, David Solomon, Mochida, Masa, Makiko Yamazaki, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Japan, Reuters, Goldman, ichi Kangyo Bank, Mizuho Bank, Goldman Sachs Japan, Nippon Telegraph, Telephone, Financial Times, U.S, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York, U.S, Japan's, Japan, Tokyo
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