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As investors are navigating all the buzz about this week's potential rate cut and the upcoming presidential election, JPMorgan is forecasting a serious risk to long-term stock returns. The market appears to be too expensive relative to history, according to the firm, which is projecting a 5.7% annual return from the S & P 500 over the next decade. That is barely above half its post-World War II average, analyst Jan Loeys said in a recent note to clients. .SPX 5Y mountain S & P 500 performance over the past five years. The "Great Moderation" refers to the period from the mid-1980s to 2007 that saw low inflation and steady economic growth.
Persons: Jan Loeys, Loeys Organizations: JPMorgan
For most investors, holding just one passive global stock market fund and one passive global bond market fund over the long term is the best way to construct a portfolio, the strategists said. While some more time-consuming, complicated strategies may allow for higher returns, this approach gives investors the best all-around bang for their buck, Loeys and Wise said. Our point is instead that we believe you can achieve most, if not all of your financial objectives by following our KISS approach. Two stock funds that do this include the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (VTWAX) and the SPDR Portfolio MSCI Global Stock Market ETF (SPGM). For investors who want to do more with their portfolio, Loeys and Wise suggested dedicating 80%-90% of one's portfolio to the above strategy, and using the other 10%-20% on other investments.
Persons: Jan Loeys, Alexander Wise, Wise, Joeys, Loeys Organizations: JPMorgan, Business, KISS, Index, Stock Market, Bond, Fidelity
But the firm says rising insurance costs could eventually dampen demand. The researchers then gave each county a composite climate risk score, measured against each area's house price index. AdvertisementA positive relationship also emerged between higher climate risk and population growth, indicating that more people were migrating in than leaving these areas. Others may simply have no intent on selling, and consider themselves too old to experience these rising costs. But changes to property insurance may force prospective buyers to give more attention to climate risks, JPMorgan noted.
Persons: Alexander Wise, Jan Loeys, Risks, Redfin Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Foundation Locations: Florida
The US even reminded everyone just how influential the buck is when it effectively froze Russia out of the global financial system with sanctions last year. Becoming the issuer of the global reserve currency is about trust. The US has controlled the global reserve currency for 102 years — giving it a special status in the world economy. Still, given that the country controlling the global reserve currency holds that status of an average of 94 years, history seems to indicate it's high time for a successor. Why shouldn't the financial world resemble something closer to the mosaic of cultures, politics, and nations that exists today?
Persons: Chenzi Xu, there's, Xu, , Ron Temple, Gregory Brew, Eurasia's Brew, dollarizing, Stephen Jen, Jen, we've, Stanford's Xu, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Josh Lipsky, " Lipsky, It's, Alexander Wise, Jan Loeys, Loeys, dollarization, Wise, Lazard's Temple, isn't, Phil Rosen Organizations: Stanford, Federal, European Central Bank, People's Bank of China, Lazard, Publishing, Getty Images, International Monetary Fund, Bank of International Settlements, Eurasia Group, Sandman's, Eurizon, IMF, Atlantic Council, JPMorgan Locations: Russia, Israel, France, China, America, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Bolivia, Iraq, South Africa, Beijing
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