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☆ Election prediction markets are in a sprint to prove themselves as forecasting and investing tools
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

"Things were going okay before the election contracts, but since we put them on the platform there's been a lot more interest," Sanders said. The election contracts on each site are binary, and they pay out $1 if the correct outcome is chosen and $0 for the incorrect outcome. A fifth arena, Polymarket, is a blockchain-based prediction platform that is not open to U.S. customers. If they prove to be accurate over time, the prediction markets may also serve non-traders such as consultants and fundraisers who want to glean more insight into the election. Concerns More ominously, critics of the election markets have raised alarm that they could be moved by one or two big traders for possibly nefarious purposes.

Persons: politicos, Kalshi, Steven Sanders, Sanders, John Phillips, Phillips, Tarek Mansour, Bob Elliott, Ray, Elliott, Polymarket, Nikki Haley, Michelle Obama, Matt Thompson, Thompson, Koleman Strumpf, Cantrell Dumas, Dumas, PredictIt's Phillips, Strumpf, Mansour, We've Organizations: Wall, Interactive, Futures Trading Commission, CFTC, Kalshi, Funds, Bridgewater Associates, South Carolina Gov, Republican, Little Harbor Advisors, Wake Forest University, Better, CNBC, Wake Locations: Iowa, Winston, Salem, N.C, Susquehanna

☆ Fast-growing buffer funds could help investors hedge election risks
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

These ETFs, often called "buffer funds," use options to give investors downside protection in exchange for giving up potential upside. The funds come with different time horizons, and new funds are launching or resetting every month, so there are several options for investors to buy now and protect themselves through the November election. Many of the ETFs offer something in the range of 10% to 30% downside protection and are often called buffer funds. Other products that offer 100% downside protection — in exchange for smaller upside — are sometimes marketed as "principal protection funds." Jim Saulnier, a CFP and founder of Jim Saulnier & Associates in Fort Collins, Colorado, said his clients use both the buffer funds and the 100% downside protection funds.

Persons: Bruce Bond, Matt Kaufman, Jim Saulnier, Saulnier, Bond, there's, Matt Thompson, Thompson, Kaufman Organizations: U.S, JPMorgan, Capital Management, Calamos Investments, Jim Saulnier & Associates, Little Harbor Advisors Locations: Fort Collins , Colorado, iShares

☆ A market-predicting strategist warns that chasing this record rally is a mistake — but investors can still score strong long-term gains by following this 6-part strategy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

"We should be anticipating higher highs in the market," Lundgren, the chief market strategist at MOTR Capital Management & Research and a portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, recently told Business Insider. The 28-year market veteran's upbeat sentiment is more widespread now than last fall, when the S&P 500 struggled mightily before a powerful end-of-year surge. There can be negative or positive stretches within an established bull or bear market, Lundgren noted. Only one of the ETFs tracking Lundgren's preferred sectors has beaten the S&P 500 (in dark blue) since late last summer. When adjusting for market cap, cyclicals have fared much better and have bested the equal-weight version of the S&P 500 in several cases.

Persons: —, David Lundgren, Lundgren, he'd, we've Organizations: Service, MOTR Capital Management & Research, Little Harbor Advisors, Business, Yahoo Finance, Yahoo

☆ 'This is what you live for': How to handle GameStop's jaw-dropping swings as meme stocks make a comeback, according to a momentum-obsessed technical strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

He believes the stock market is rational — even when it doesn't appear to be. Related stories"The market is ruthlessly efficient, both long term and short term," Lundgren said. The strategist added: "The market doesn't care one iota about fundamentals in the short term. Like any market, stock exchanges determine prices based on what buyers and sellers will pay and sell for. Just because it's taking place in a mall doesn't make that mall an insane asylum."

Persons: —, Tuesday's, Redditors, David Lundgren, Lundgren, who's, that's, It's, Benjamin Graham, Mark Minervini Organizations: Service, GameStop, Business, Street, MOTR Capital Management & Research, Little Harbor Advisors, AMC

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