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Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%
  + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The bank's economists over the weekend lowered their recession probability to just 15%, which chief economist Jan Hatzius classified as the "unconditional long-term average." September's smashing nonfarm payrolls surge of 254,000 and a downward move in the unemployment rate served as a catalyst for the firm to nearly abandon the chance of a contraction. Prior to the report, traders had been betting that the Fed might repeat its 50 basis point — half percentage point — interest rate cut from September before the end of the year. But expectations have swung now, and Goldman concurs with market pricing that the "next few meetings" will see 25 basis point moves. That's about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level and 2 full percentage points below the pre-September cut.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman, Lisa Shallett, Morgan Stanley, Shallett Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
US stocks look as overvalued as when the 2022 bear market kicked off, Morgan Stanley warned. "The stock market and the credit market are fighting the Federal Reserve's likely path of rising interest rates. But the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management team said that rally has dragged valuations — an assessment of a stock's fundamental worth — to extreme levels. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's gloomy outlook echoes the bearish view held by the bank's top strategist. Read more: The bear market rally isn't over yet as stocks just survived a crucial test, Morgan Stanley CIO says
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