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Powell faces a similar task this year but with the inflation problem turned on its head. As such, the Fed, which has been under Powell's leadership since early 2018, has flagged a downshift this year to a gradual pace of interest rate increases to reduce the risk of a policy mistake. Part of that withdrawal of stimulus included starting its balance sheet drawdown. For some that made kicking off the balance sheet drawdown at the July meeting less attractive than the September meeting, when then-Chair Yellen would speak with the press at its conclusion. "I see no advantage at all to moving it to July," then Fed governor Lael Brainard said.

Data for September was revised higher to show 315,000 jobs created instead of the previously reported 263,000, but the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% from 3.5%. "And I think the implication of that is probably a slower rate of pace of rate increases, a longer pace of rate increases and potentially a higher end point." The Fed's key policy rate currently sits in a 3.75%-4.00% range. "I had interest rates in September peaking at around 4.9% in the March-April (2023) kind of time frame," Kashkari said. Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir, Michael S. Derby, Dan Burns and Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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