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[1/2] A woman counts U.S. dollar bills at her home in Buenos Aires, Argentina August 28, 2018. Cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday hastened market expectations for how soon the Federal Reserve will cut rates. Such a move would weaken a major dollar support and could come as early as next year's first quarter. The yen - punished broadly this year by dollar strength - broke the 150 mark for the first time in nearly two weeks, gaining 0.69% to 149.68 to the dollar. Japanese authorities do not have specific exchange-rate levels in mind when deciding when to intervene in the currency market, Deputy Finance Minister Ryosei Akazawa told parliament on Friday.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Bipan Rai, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Ryosei Akazawa, Lee Hardman, Robert Holzmann, Joachim Nagel, Christine Lagarde, Herbert Lash, Iain Withers, Rae Wee, Tom Westbrook, Alexander Smith, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, CIBC Capital Markets, FX, Eurostat, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, North America, Toronto, United States, Macquarie, New York, Britain, London, Singapore

[1/2] A woman counts U.S. dollar bills at her home in Buenos Aires, Argentina August 28, 2018. Cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday reset market expectations for how soon the Federal Reserve will cut rates and weighed on the dollar. The greenback is poised for its biggest weekly drop since July, down 1.6% over the past five days, and second-biggest decline this year. Data that showed U.S. single-family homebuilding increased marginally in October briefly supported the dollar, but with inflation the main market driver it remained lower on the day. The euro was up 0.17% at $1.0868 after Eurostat data confirmed year-on-year inflation in the euro zone slowed sharply in October.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Bipan Rai, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Lee Hardman, Robert Holzmann, Joachim Nagel, Christine Lagarde, Herbert Lash, Iain Withers, Rae Wee, Tom Westbrook, Mark Potter, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, CIBC Capital Markets, FX, Eurostat, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, North America, Toronto, United States, Macquarie, New York, Britain, London, Singapore

☆ Crack in US dollar strength to spread as economy slows: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Suggesting the current dollar weakening trend has further to go, a near two-thirds majority of analysts, 28 of 45, who answered a separate question said the dollar is likely to trade lower than current levels against major currencies by year-end. The euro zone economy shrank 0.1% last quarter and is expected to flat-line in this one, barely skirting a recession. The Japanese yen, the worst-performing major currency for the year, is expected to remain under pressure in the near-term. The yen is expected to gain over 10% to change hands at 136/dollar in a year, the poll showed. Emerging market currencies are expected to take well into next year to post noticeable gains against a retreating U.S. dollar.

Persons: Florence Lo, we’ve, ”, Lee Hardman, “ It’s, we’re, Simon Harvey, Sterling Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, MUFG, Futures Trading, U.S, “ Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Europe

☆ From a likely recession to a weakening shekel, here's how the conflict with Hamas is impacting Israel's economy and markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The conflict with Hamas that began October 7 will have widespread financial implications for Israel. A top Israeli economist said a recession in Israel is likely, and Fitch put the country's credit rating on watch for downgrade. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Yet in less than two weeks, Israel's shekel has weakened about 4.8% to hit multi-year lows against the dollar. The Financial Times reported Tuesday that Bank of Israel deputy governor Andrew Abir said policymakers would prioritize stabilizing the currency over growth.

Persons: Fitch, —, Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Joseph Zeira, Zeira, Israel's shekel, Andrew Abir, Lee Hardman Organizations: Hamas, Service, Tel, Israel's Defense Forces, Hebrew University, CNBC, Bank of Israel, Traders, Deutsche Bank, Financial Times, MUFG Bank Locations: Israel, Palestinian, Tel Aviv, Gaza, Israeli, Iran

Donald Tusk, leader of the largest opposition grouping Civic Coalition (KO), speaks after the exit poll results are announced in Warsaw, Poland, October 15, 2023. The incumbent Law and Justice (PiS) party has repeatedly clashed with the European Union over the rule of law, media freedom, migration and LGBT rights since it swept to power in 2015. An Ipsos exit poll published early on Monday gave PiS 36.6% of the vote, which would translate into 198 lawmakers in the 460-seat lower house of parliament. On Monday, Duda urged patience until the full election results were known. However, with the far-right Confederation seen winning just 6.4%, below expectations, according to the exit poll, PiS will struggle to forge a new government.

Persons: Donald Tusk, Kacper, Donald Tusk's, Tusk, Lee Hardman, Andrzej Duda, Duda, PiS, Wladyslaw Kosiniak, Kamysz, beholden, Iga Frackiewicz, Lidia Kelly, Alan Charlish, Gareth Jones Organizations: Civic Coalition, REUTERS, EU, Justice, European Union, European, Polish Peasants ' Party, Thomson Locations: Warsaw, Poland, WARSAW, Brussels, Europe, Polish, Wrocław, Gdansk, Melbourne

☆ Dollar eases from 10-month high but on track for weekly gain
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar index eased from a 10-month high on Thursday but remained on track for a weekly gain, and investors stayed on guard for potential intervention in the yen as it holds near 11-month lows against the U.S. currency. "The dollar in this environment is benefiting from both higher yields but also more jittery risk sentiment," said Vassili Serebriakov, an FX strategist at UBS in New York. "Global yields are rising, but with the U.S. economy outperforming the U.S. dollar still looks attractive." Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Thursday that Japan would not rule out any options if there was any excessive volatility in currency moves, warning against speculative yen moves amid the currency's fall. The dollar was last down 0.27% against the Japanese currency at 149.23 yen, easing from an 11-month high of 149.71 on Wednesday.

Persons: Vassili Serebriakov, Lee Hardman, Hardman, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Shunichi Suzuki Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, UBS, ., MUFG, Chicago Fed, Finance Locations: U.S, New York, Europe, Japan

Yet in Europe, sterling came under pressure after data showed Britain's high inflation rate fell unexpectedly in August, prompting speculation that the Bank of England could pause its historic run of interest rate hikes as soon as Thursday. Two-year Treasury yields were down 3.5 basis points in London trade at 5.07%, having risen sharply on Tuesday, when five- and 10-year Treasury yields reached 16-year highs. World stock markets were edging higher ahead of the Fed rate decision. UK gilt yields fell sharply as investors slashed bets for a rate hike on Thursday, with two-year yields last down over 14 bps at 4.85% . "Combined with their recent dovish commentary, we now expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate unchanged tomorrow and lower our forecast for the terminal policy rate to 5.25%," Stehn and co. added.

Persons: DAX, Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Lee Hardman, Sterling underperformed, Goldman Sachs, Sven Jari Stehn, Stehn, Masato Kanda, Eugene Low, Dhara Ranasinghe, Samuel Indyk, Tom Westbrook, Toby Chopra, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Brent, Federal, Fed, Japan's Nikkei, MPC, Monetary, Bank of, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, London, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, China, Singapore

☆ Euro gains, yen struggles in central bank-packed week
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A Reuters report on Monday citing six sources said the debate over the multi-trillion-euro pool of excess liquidity sloshing around banks was likely to start next month. However, this might not be enough to give the euro a more sustained boost, according to Lee Hardman, a strategist at MUFG. "While the ECB’s reported plans to tighten excess liquidity in the euro area have helped to support the euro, they are unlikely to be sufficient on their own to turn the current weakening trend," he said. This week brings a raft of central bank meetings, including those of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank, among others, which kept currency volatility on the subdued side. In other currencies, sterling edged up 0.1% at $1.2398, ahead of an interest rate decision from the BoE on Thursday.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lee Hardman, Kazuo Ueda, Rodrigo Catril, Erik Weisman, BoE, Rae Wee, Lincoln, Peter Graff, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, National Australia Bank, NAB, U.S, Fed, MFS Investment Management, Thomson Locations: U.S

CFTC data show that funds and speculators are holding a chunky net short yen position worth around $8.2 billion. Contrast that with the euro position, and it is not difficult to envisage a potential narrowing of the gulf in the weeks and months ahead. Citi's U.S. economic surprises index has been positive since May and the euro zone index has been in negative territory since May. Euro zone interest rate traders reckon the ECB is done raising rates, and are now betting on around 70 bps of rate cuts next year. "Today's ECB policy update and stronger U.S. data for Q3 is further encouraging those expectations placing downward pressure on EUR/USD," MUFG's Lee Hardman wrote on Thursday.

Persons: Pedro Nunes, gunning, MUFG's Lee Hardman, Jamie McGeever, David Evans Organizations: Bank of, REUTERS, Rights, Central, ECB, U.S, HSBC, Futures, CFTC, Bank of Japan, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Bank of Portugal, Carregado, Alenquer, Portugal, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, U.S

☆ Dollar to stay bright this year before fading in 2024, analysts say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Sarupya Ganguly | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Backed by a strong economy and rising U.S. Treasury yields, some of the highest among developed economies, the dollar despite bouts of weakness has stayed resilient against most major currencies. That strong performance has brought the long-held view of a weaker dollar in the short to medium term under review. A solid 81% majority of analysts, 43 of 53, who answered an additional question said the risk to their dollar outlook was to the upside, the Sept. 1-6 Reuters poll showed. Elsewhere, other Asian currencies stand to face significant friction in recouping losses for the year, according to the poll. Almost all were forecast to at best stay within a range or trade modestly higher against the dollar in coming months.

Persons: Jane Foley, Lee Hardman, pare, Sterling, Sarupya Ganguly, Sujith Pai, Devayani, Pranoy, Hari Kishan, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Treasury, . Federal, Rabobank, Argentine, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, America, Brazilian

☆ Dollar drops on jobs data, yen rises from 10-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Japanese yen also gained, after earlier falling to a 10-month low. The dollar briefly reached an almost 10-month high against the Japanese yen earlier on Tuesday, before dropping on the jobs data. The Bank of Japan remains an outlier among global central banks with its loose monetary policy, even as it slowly shifts away from yield curve control. “It is moving away from excessively loose monetary policy, but it’s doing so at a very slow and measured pace,” Rai said. Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Bipan Rai, ” Rai, “ It’s, Charu, Kazuo Ueda, Lee Hardman, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Sharon Singleton, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Action Economics, Federal Reserve, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Saxo, Jackson, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, Japan, London

U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 30, 2023. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, with benchmark 10-year yields hitting 16-year highs on Tuesday, and unease over China have boosted the dollar this month. "What we're seeing is a bit of a pause," said Fiona Cincotta, senior markets analyst at City Index, in London. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major counterparts, was a touch softer at 103.30, holding below Friday's 10-week highs at 103.68. The Australian dollar was 0.4% firmer at $0.6441 as global risk appetite recovered.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Bond, Powell, Jackson, Fiona Cincotta, We've, Kazuo Ueda, Jerome Powell, Sterling, Lee Hardman, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kevin Buckland, Angus MacSwan, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, City Index, Bank of Japan, Federal, Thomson Locations: China, London, , Wyoming, U.S, Toyko

A jump in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons also suggested a weaker labor market, but the pace of job growth remains strong and with inflation still double the Fed's target rate, a rate hike this month is likely. "The Fed is being hawkish and that prevents the dollar from depreciating too much. After the jobs data, futures pointed to an 88.8% probability that the Fed hikes in three weeks. Adding a tailwind to the rally in the yen was some position-squaring among speculators, who have built up sizeable bearish positions, Hardman said. The Australian dollar rose 0.8% to $0.6681, but it is still battered by weak Chinese economic data and broad risk aversion.

Persons: Joe Manimbo, We're, Thierry Wizman, They've, Lee Hardman, Hardman, YEN, Herbert Lash, Amanda Cooper, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes, Mark Potter, Barbara Lewis, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Federal Reserves, Labor Department, Treasury, ECB, Strong U.S, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, New York, London, Singapore

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-HoonSINGAPORE/LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - The yen was under pressure against most other major currencies on Wednesday, even as Japanese authorities said they could intervene to prop it up, while the Australian dollar dropped after data showed inflation eased in May. The U.S. dollar rose to 144.26 yen on Wednesday, a fresh seven-month high, while the euro climbed to a 15-year high of 157.98 yen. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar fell to a three-week low of $0.6618 after the local consumer price inflation rate slowed to a 13-month low in May. It was last down 0.78% at $0.6634, and the neighbouring New Zealand dollar fell 1.17% to $0.6090, its biggest daily fall in a month. A measure of core inflation in Australia also cooled, in a sign interest rates might not have to rise again in July.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Masato Kanda, Lee Hardman, Jerome Powell, Andrew Bailey, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ankur Banerjee, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Jamie Freed, Emelia Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Hoon, U.S, MUFG, New Zealand, Traders, Bank's, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Hoon SINGAPORE, LONDON, Australia, Europe, U.S, Singapore

With economic and monetary policy outlooks varying, currency moves are increasingly out of sync with each other. More pain is also anticipated for the yuan, trading near seven-month lows, as well as smaller Asian currencies. It's continuing to weaken against some European currencies and also Latin American currencies," he said. MULTI-LAYERED CRISISKit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale, said the focus on monetary policy differences was also a result of uncertainties elsewhere. "We've got a one-in-a-100-years pandemic and once-in-75-years war and a-once-in-25-years energy crisis all thrown into the mix together," said SocGen's Juckes.

Persons: Yen, Pound, Jordan Rochester, Nomura, Lee Hardman, Hardman, Juckes, Morgan Stanley reckons, We've, SocGen's, You’ve, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alun John, John Stonestreet Organizations: The Bank of, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Rochester, Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Europe, COVID, Ukraine, The Bank of Japan, United States, Beijing, Scandinavia

☆ Dollar backs down as traders price in a Fed skip
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

In April, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) logged its smallest year-on-year increase since March 2021 at 4.0%. It's quite a high hurdle for (the Fed) to deliver a hawkish surprise tonight through rhetoric alone," MUFG strategist Lee Hardman said. Unsurprisingly, the dollar has lost the most so far this month against the Australian dollar , which has gained 4.3%, followed by the Canadian dollar , which has risen by 2%. The European Central Bank (ECB) delivers its decision on rates on Thursday, with a quarter-point hike to 3.50% widely expected. Its policymakers have been clear that inflation across the euro zone is too high and the central bank has more work to do.

Persons: Lee Hardman, Francesco Pesole, Sterling, Kevin Buckland, Kim Coghill, Mark Potter, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Canadian, European Central Bank, Fed, ECB, ING, The Bank of, People's Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, The Bank of Japan, Tokyo

The euro rose 0.8% against the crown to 11.401, set for its biggest one-day gain since early March. The dollar, which traded down 0.7% against the crown before the Riksbank's decision, was up 0.4% at 10.347. Elsewhere, the euro rose 0.4% against the dollar to $1.1019 and the pound rose 0.38% $1.2457 both rebounding from slightly larger falls a day earlier. However, "the broader spillover impact looks limited - other regional bank shares have held up better - and the market sees it as an isolated incident. The dollar slid 0.2% against the yen to 133.45.

☆ Dollar's crown to slip as peers catch up in rates race: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Median forecasts in the March 31-April 4 poll of 90 foreign exchange strategists showed the dollar ceding ground to all major currencies in a year. "Our take on the dollar is that we continue to look for further weakness over the next three to six months. With the dollar's expected retreat, the European single currency is finding its spot in the sun after briefly crossing below parity on lagging rate expectations in 2022. The safe-haven currency, which hit 32-year lows in 2022 again on rate differentials, was forecast to recoup that loss over the forecast horizon. Indeed, the 12-month median view for nearly all of the major currencies surveyed was identical with the March poll.

SINGAPORE/LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held steady on Tuesday ahead of testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted it might nearly be done with monetary tightening. Elsewhere, the euro, sterling and yen were all broadly steady with the common currency at $1.0671 , the pound at $1.20245 , and one dollar worth 135.7 yen . That meant U.S. dollar index , which measures the unit against six major rivals, was also flat at 104.3, having slipped 0.26% a day earlier. "If (he) remains cautious ... that could trigger the dollar index to fall further below the 105.00-level ahead of the release of the NFP report on Friday." Investors are also awaiting the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday, when the central bank is set to stick to its ultra-loose monetary path.

☆ Dollar's renewed strength temporary, weakness ahead, FX analysts say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While analysts have been predicting a weaker dollar 12 months out for over five years, their predictions only came true in 2020 when the currency weakened more than 6.5%. There was also no clear consensus among analysts in the poll over dollar positioning, which turned net short dollar last November. Among the remaining 18, a dozen forecast a reversal to net long positions and six predicted an increase in net short positions. Even the British pound , which dropped more than 10% last year, was expected to claw back around half of those losses in 12 months. Sterling was predicted to rise from its latest level of $1.19 to $1.22, $1.23 and $1.26 in the next three, six and 12 months, respectively.

This meant the U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell as low as 101.5, its lowest since the end of May. Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), which also meet next week, to deliver 50 bps rate hikes. The Canadian dollar traded at 1.3387 per U.S. dollar, after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised its key interest rate to 4.5% but became the first major central bank fighting global inflation to say it would likely hold off on further increases for now. He said the pullback in Fed rate hike expectations following the BoC’s policy decision had triggered a US dollar sell-off alongside Canadian dollar weakness, which "highlights that the US dollar remains vulnerable to a further dovish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations." Reporting by Rae Wee and Alun John; Editing by Bradley Perrett and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ VIEW Bank of England raises rates to 3.5%, says inflation has peaked
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by a widely expected 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50%, in its ninth straight increase - and its eighth this year. UK rates began rising in December 2021, making the BoE the first of the world's major central banks to kick off a monetary policy-tightening cycle. MONEY MARKETS: Interest rate swaps showed investors expected rates to peak at 4.46% by next August, compared with an anticipated terminal rate of 4.53% just before the decision. Their own numbers have been pointing to a recession for a little while, and they've still materially hiked interest rates. EDWARD HUTCHINGS, HEAD OF RATES, AVIVA INVESTORS, LONDON:"The Bank of England duly delivered on financial markets expectations of a 0.50% hike.

☆ Dollar edges up, investors weigh outlooks for rates and economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Next week brings a raft of major central bank decisions, including those from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The key question for traders and investors is whether inflation has reached a peak, giving policymakers more scope to deliver smaller interest-rate rises over the coming months. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has fallen almost continuously since hitting a 15-year high in late October, having shed almost a full percentage point. The 10-year yield was last up 5 bps at 3.45%, having neared is lowest in almost three months overnight. Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar eases against euro as investors weigh rates outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar edged lower on Thursday against the euro as investors weighed the outlook for U.S. Federal Reserve policy against the chances that higher interest rates could lead to a recession. Traders and investors will be on the watch for any signs that the Fed is getting ready to pause its hikes. The dollar was down 0.37% at $1.05435 against the euro at 9:45 a.m. EST (1545 GMT), and up 0.13% at $1.2228 versus the pound. The 10-year yield was last up 4 bps at 3.44%, having neared is lowest in almost three months overnight. Rates are now seen peaking at just below 5% in May.

Restrictions in Beijing and elsewhere tightened further on Tuesday, though currency traders seemed to think the previous day's moves were sufficient. In Europe on Tuesday, data from the European Central Bank showed the euro zone's current account deficit narrowed in September. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell to a new two-year low of $15,479 on Monday, another victim of Monday's rush to the dollar, and also amid jitters about the health of crypto broker Genesis. The lending unit suspended redemptions last week, citing fallout from the collapse of FTX, which filed for bankruptcy on November 11. Reporting by Rae Wee and Alun John; editing by Kim Coghill, Jason Neely and Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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