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☆ Live Updates: Inflation Expected to Remain Stubborn
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

Policymakers have made it clear that they want to see further evidence that inflation is cooling before they cut interest rates. But Fed officials do not want to cut rates before they are confident that inflation is on track to return to normal. That threat of lingering inflation has become a more serious concern for policymakers since the start of the year. Inflation has flatlined in recent months after months of steady declines, raising some alarm at the Fed and among forecasters. Going into the year, investors expected the Fed to cut rates sharply in 2024 — to about 4 percent — but have dialed back those expectations.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Laura Rosner, Warburton, it’s, you’ve, ” Organizations: Federal, Fed, Goldman, Deutsche Bank Locations: Central

☆ July Inflation Report Price Pressures Expected to Pick Up Slightly
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | Neal Boudette | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Instead, Wall Street analysts and policymakers at the Federal Reserve will scrutinize the “core” inflation measure that strips out food and fuel prices, which can be volatile. When it comes to the monthly change in core inflation, the news could be a lot more encouraging. If that pans out, it would make for the lowest back-to-back core inflation readings since early 2021. Still, the inflation report could be more difficult for the Biden administration to brag about than the last few reports, which showed across-the-board cooling. “Core inflation pressures are cooling down,” she said.

Persons: Biden, “, ”, Laura Rosner, Warburton, ” Carl Riccadonna Organizations: Inflation, Wall Street, Federal Reserve

PinnedInflation data released on Wednesday showed a pronounced cooling and offered some of the most hopeful news since the Federal Reserve began trying to tame rapid price increases 16 months ago. Officials have signaled in recent weeks that they are likely to raise interest rates at their July 25-26 meeting. For one thing, the cost of housing as measured by the Consumer Price Index — which relies on rent prices — is coming down sharply. The Fed officially targets 2 percent inflation on average over time, though it defines that goal using a separate inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. Interest rates increases work partly by slowing the job market and cooling wage increases, so the Fed’s fight against inflation and the strength of the labor market are closely tied.

Persons: ”, Laura Rosner, Warburton, it’s, . Rosner, Airfares, “, Beth Weaver, Loretta Mester, ” Julia Pollak Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Consumer, Buick GMC, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, ZipRecruiter Locations: Erie, Pa

PinnedInflation data released on Wednesday showed a pronounced cooling and offered some of the most hopeful news since the Federal Reserve began trying to tame rapid price increases 16 months ago. But Federal Reserve officials are still trying to assess whether the cool down is likely to be quick and complete. Officials have signaled in recent weeks that they are likely to raise interest rates at their July 25-26 meeting. For one thing, the cost of housing as measured by the Consumer Price Index — which relies on rent prices — is coming down sharply. Interest rates increases work partly by slowing the job market and cooling wage increases, so the Fed’s fight against inflation and the strength of the labor market are closely tied.

The fresh data offer the latest evidence that the Fed’s push to control rapid price increases is beginning to work. Investors have been betting that Fed officials will leave rates unchanged at their meeting this week, breaking their long streak of increases. Even so, many investors continue to expect that Fed officials will restart rate increases in July. That “core” price index rose 5.3 percent in May compared with a year earlier. And price increases for goods excluding motor vehicles remained positive, instead of subtracting from inflation as some economists have been expecting.

Persons: “, ” Laura Rosner, Warburton, Airfares, Ms, Rosner, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Mortgage, Association

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