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According to CME FedWatch, which estimates interest rate changes based on market predictions, the size of the rate cut is a coin toss. As of Friday afternoon, there's a 51% chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points and a 49% chance it'll be an extra-large 50-basis-point cut. That's because a larger rate cut makes borrowing cheaper, which tends to drive up spending and fuel price increases. Rate cuts will also eventually make it cheaper for small businesses to take out loans. A rate cut could cause a rush of buyers to enter the market in the short term, driving up prices and competition.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Michael Madowitz, she's, McTier, it'll, Mark Hamrick, Banks, Hamrick, NerdWallet, Sara Rathner Organizations: Service, Federal, CME FedWatch, Federal Reserve, Business, Washington Center for Equitable Growth, Fed, Consumer Financial, Bureau, asheffey Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, McTier
US stocks were mixed on Monday ahead of the Fed's expected rate cut later in the week. Fed fund futures show markets see odds of a 50 basis point cut as more likely than a 25 basis point move. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS stocks were mixed on Monday ahead of a major Federal Reserve meeting that's expected to deliver the first interest rate cut in four years. Treasury yields dipped, with the 10-year bond down about one basis point to 3.64%.
Persons: , it's, Dan Ives, Powell, Ives Organizations: Treasury, Service, Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Fed, Wedbush Securities, Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, Here's
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Debating P & G: We remain torn over traditional slowdown stocks like Procter & Gamble and other defensive consumer stocks. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, we're, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Wells Fargo, It's, we've, Hock Tan, Rene Haas, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Charlie Scharf, Patrick T, Fallon Organizations: CNBC, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Micron, Currency, Procter, Gamble, Colgate, Palmolive, Broadcom, Arm, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Milken Institute Global Conference, Afp, Getty Locations: stock's, Wells Fargo, Beverly Hills , California
Fed funds futures have fully priced in that the central bank will lower interest rates, according to CME's FedWatch tool . Many now expect the Fed will achieve the coveted "soft landing" outcome, which means inflation is curbed without tipping the economy into a recession. Rate cuts without a recession has historically been a positive mixture for stocks. Given this backdrop, CNBC Pro screened for names that have performed nicely in past periods where the Fed pulled rates lower without the U.S. economy tipping into a recession. To find these companies, CNBC Pro searched the S & P 500 for members with the highest median gain one year after the Fed has cut rates without an official recession.
Persons: Genuity, LSEG, Paul Lejuez, WMT Organizations: Reserve, CNBC Pro, Nike, Dow Jones Industrial, Intel, Boeing, Walmart, Dow, Citi, Wall Locations: U.S, Rochester , New York
Washington CNN —It’s a pivotal week for the US economy, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. Fed officials and investors have long anticipated that borrowing costs would come down in 2024 — at some point — according to their economic forecasts. But nine months in, rate cuts still haven’t happened, drenching Wall Street’s parade and leaving US consumers squeezed by elevated interest rates. Here’s why the Fed didn’t cut soonerIt’s simple: The Fed didn’t cut interest rates sooner because it could have reignited inflation or left it stuck above the central bank’s target. Bond yields, which move in anticipation of the Fed’ decisions on rates, have come down over the past several weeks based on signs encouraging the Fed to cut rates, such as weaker-than-expected employment data and cooling inflation.
Persons: Washington CNN — It’s, it’s, ” Oscar Muñoz, ” Muñoz, Jerome Powell, Powell, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, “ Jerome Powell’s, ” Philipp Carlsson Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Wall, TD Securities, CNN, Kansas City, Capitol, White, Boston Consulting Group Locations: , Jackson Hole , Wyoming
The Federal Reserve is expected to start lowering rates this week, and mortgage rates are down as a result. But will mortgage rates drop further once the Fed cuts rates? See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile.
Persons: they've, Freddie Mac Organizations: Federal, Zillow, ARM, Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs Locations: Chevron
Stocks in the firm's coverage universe have "significantly front-loaded expected rate cut benefits, well in excess of prior fed cycles," he said. The chances of a smaller 25 basis point cut have fallen to a 41% chance. Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley is watching the data very closely as well and said a lot will depend on how consumers react as mortgage rates fall. Bouley said this is one of the clearest signs yet that a recent decline in mortgage rates is bringing buyers into the market. Slightly more than half the analysts who cover the stock rate it a buy or overweight, it said.
Persons: Mike Dahl, Dahl, Toll, Taylor Morrison, Matthew Bouley, Bouley, Horton Organizations: Federal Reserve, RBC Capital Markets, Tri, Tri Pointe Homes, Toll, RBC, KB, Barclays Locations: Tri Pointe, staving, Horton
Stocks are set to climb higher for at least the next few weeks, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee pointed to the Fed's policy meeting, with markets expecting a rate cut on Wednesday. A Fed rate cut will be bullish for stocks, regardless of its size, he told CNBC. AdvertisementWall Street has been anticipating rate cuts for months, especially as the economy has shown some weakness stemming from tighter financial conditions. However, stocks should move higher regardless of the size of the rate cut, Lee said, so long as central bankers assure markets that more cuts are coming.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, , Powell Organizations: CNBC, Service, Bureau of Labor, New York Fed
Ideally the Fed will cut rates by a half-point without triggering growth worries, Morgan Stanley says. According to new research from Morgan Stanley, that would be the best possible outcome for stocks. Ahead of the rate cut, Morgan Stanley suggested that investors increase exposure to two stock cohorts that have historically outperformed in similar environments: defensive and high-quality. Defensive stocks include sectors such as utilities and consumer staples — groups that are less reliant on macroeconomic conditions to perform well. Large caps also tend to outperform small caps both before and after the Fed's first rate cut.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, , Morgan, cyclicals, Wilson Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve
Nine people were injured as they ran to shelters, after air raid sirens sounded in central Israel Sunday morning. A ballistic missile launched from Yemen crossed into Israel, landing in an open field outside Tel Aviv, the Israel Defense Forces said. The sirens were the first in months, and included Israel's Ben Gurion international airport in Tel Aviv, where local media showed footage of people racing to shelters. Responders put out a fire in the area of Lod, near Tel Aviv, in central Israel. The IDF originally said that a "surface-to-surface missile was identified crossing into central Israel from the East and fell in an open area."
Persons: Israel's Ben, MENAHEM KAHANA, Nasr Al, Din Amer, Al, Israel Organizations: Israel Defense Forces, NBC News, Reuters, Getty, IDF, Arabi, Israel, U.S . Embassy Locations: Israel, Yemen, Tel Aviv, Israel's Ben Gurion, Lod, AFP, Modiin, Yemen’s Iran, Gaza, U.S
New York CNN —Federal Reserve officials won’t say how former President Donald Trump winning a second term could impact the economy. But transcripts of closed-door Fed meetings from Trump’s first term give some clues about top economists’ true feelings about Trump’s economic agenda. “We don’t want to be involved … in politics in any way,” Powell said after July’s monetary policy meeting. The transcripts of past meetings that are publicly available, the most recent being from the December 2018 monetary policy meeting, suggest that some Fed officials had legitimate concerns about Trump’s trade policy and its impact on the economy. ‘Ill-conceived US government policies’At later meetings, as the Trump administration began to set the stage for a potential trade war with China, Fed officials started to sound more concerned.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Powell, Sen, Jack Reed, , it’s, Loretta Mester, ” Mester, , James Bullard, Bob Dylan, ” Bullard, Bullard, Mitch Daniels, , , , ” William Dudley, ” Dudley Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, Democrat, Trump, CNN, Cleveland Fed, Fed, Federal, Market, Louis Federal Reserve, Chicago Cubs, Mitch Daniels School of Business, Washington, Lee University Locations: New York, Rhode Island, , China, United States, Dudley
The S & P 500 rebounded 4% this past week, almost clawing back all of the prior week's horrible decline. Fed watch The Fed is the big market event this week. ET: Fed rate decision Before the bell: General Mills (GIS) After the bell: Steelcase (SCS) Thursday, Sept. 19 8:30 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jensen Huang's, Goldman Sachs, Jim, Huang, Lisa Su, Su, Vimal Kapur, Morgan, Brian Niccol, Wells, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, They're, Lennar, Doug Yearley, Mills, LEN, Jim Cramer's, Spencer Platt Organizations: Federal, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Club, Technology, CNBC, Oracle, Devices, TAM, Apple, Honeywell, Starbucks, Barclays Global Financial Services, Fed, FedEx, homebuilder, Home Depot, Darden, Jim Cramer's Charitable, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Las Vegas, U.S, America, Horton, New York City
For the past three years, software stocks have suffered as revenue growth softened, and investors remain skeptical about when it will return. For Oracle, that's its cloud infrastructure — a service that has improved Oracle's fundamental growth story, Walravens argued. This strategic move positioned Oracle as a key player in AI, fueling growth in its infrastructure as a services (IaaS) business. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure is central to this growth, offering a suite of services for AI-driven workloads. SAP YTD mountain SAP stock performance year-to-date.
Persons: Raimo Lenschow, Pat Walravens, Walravens, Bernstein, Mark Moerdler, tailwinds, Goldman Sachs, Amy Hood, it's, Keith Bachman, Bachman Organizations: Oracle, Nvidia, Barclays, Investors, Software, Services, Microsoft, SAP, Citizens, CNBC, Google, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, Microsoft Microsoft, AI Services, Wall, BMO
The Crew Dragon capsule carrying four astronauts is on track to land off the coast of Dry Tortugas, Florida, at 3:36 a.m. Already, the Polaris Dawn mission has made history as it reached a higher altitude than any human has traveled in five decades. To safely reach home, the Crew Dragon capsule will carry out what’s called a “de-orbit burn,” orienting itself as it prepares to slice through the thickest part of Earth’s atmosphere. Polaris Dawn crew member and SpaceX engineer Sarah Gillis emerges from the Crew Dragon capsule's hatch on Thursday during the first commercial spacewalk. Sunday’s anticipated return will mark the conclusion of the third trip to space for the specific Crew Dragon capsule powering the Polaris Dawn mission.
Persons: CNN —, what’s, Jared Isaacman, Scott “ Kidd ” Poteet, Anna Menon, Sarah Gillis, NASA’s, , Gillis, Menon, Isaacman, ” Gillis, Jude Children’s, Sunday’s Organizations: CNN, Polaris, SpaceX, Shift4, US Air Force, Crew, “ Star, Force, Jude, Jude Children’s Hospital, NASA, Isaacman Locations: Gulf of Mexico, Tortugas , Florida
Amazon Prime Video's "The Legend of Vox Machina" is one of the many shows using animation from independent studio Titmouse Animation. Amazon StudiosThere's a powerhouse in the entertainment industry that remains unknown to many casual cartoon viewers — it's called Titmouse Animation. Titmouse worked on Disney's "Star Wars Galaxy of Adventures," a series of animated shorts set in the Star Wars universe. "When we were looking at animation studios, Chris [Prynoski] made it really clear that Titmouse wanted to get into prime-time-style adult animation and that their No. Netflix's "Big Mouth" was produced through Titmouse's animation studio.
Persons: it's, haven't, you've, Chris Prynoski, doesn't, Titmouse, Prynoski, we've, Chris, Shannon Prynoski, Daria, Beavis, Ben Kalina, they've, Kalina, Andrew Goldberg Organizations: Amazon, Amazon Studios, Netflix, Paramount, Hollywood, Disney, Universal, MTV, Cartoon Network, MTV Animation, Wars Galaxy, Star Wars, Warner Bros
CNN —Rapa Nui, also known as Easter Island, never experienced a ruinous population collapse, according to an analysis of ancient DNA from 15 former inhabitants of the remote island in the Pacific Ocean. Settled by Polynesian seafarers 800 years ago, Rapa Nui, today part of Chile, has hundreds of monumental stone heads that echo of the past. But that theory remains contentious, and other archaeological evidence suggests that Rapa Nui was home to a small but sustainable society. Easter Island genomesTo investigate Rapa Nui’s history further, researchers sequenced the genomes of 15 former residents who lived on the island during the past 400 years. But the ancient genomes add to a growing body of evidence that the idea of a self-inflicted population collapse on Easter Island is a false narrative, said Matisoo-Smith, who wasn’t involved in the study.
Persons: Christopher Columbus ’, Jared Diamond, , J, Víctor Moreno, Raraku, De Agostini, Moreno, Mayar, Lisa Matisoo, Smith, Matisoo, wasn’t, , ” Matisoo, Alphonse Pinart, Alfred Métraux Organizations: CNN, Easter, Mankind, French National Museum of, University of Copenhagen’s Globe Institute, Easter Islanders, New Zealand’s University of Otago, Polynesian, New Zealand’s Science Media Locations: Rapa, Easter, Americas, Rapa Nui, Chile, Paris, Peru, Denmark, American, South America, Columbus, Pacific, , French, Swiss
Rather than building an entirely new vessel, it was decided to modify medium-sized landing ships (classified as LSMs for 'Landing Ship Medium'). Officially renamed USS White River in 1955, the ship was decommissioned again in 1956. A day after that, White River fired on a nearby VC anti-aircraft site, destroying it and killing or wounding 11 guerillas. Winstead/National ArchivesFuture shore bombardment and LSMsDespite its value and firepower, by 1970, White River was showing its age. Now known as the Medium Landing Ship program, the Navy hopes to acquire 18 to 35 of the vessels.
Persons: , White, Cmdr, Roy E, McCoy, Chris Page, we'd, R.E, Winstead, USS Zumwalt, hasn't, they're, Benjamin Brimelow Organizations: Service, US Defense Department, Business, Navy, US Navy, USS, National Archives ', Archives, Atlantic Reserve Fleet, Pacific Fleet, Pacific Reserve Fleet, South Vietnamese Army, Archives Future, Naval, AGS, Marine Corps, Operations, Corps, Global Affairs, Fletcher School of Law, Diplomacy, Modern, Institute Locations: Ukraine, White, beachheads, Pacific, Africa, Europe, Plaines, California, Japan, LSMR, Ch'o, Korean, San Diego, Vietnam, South, Ngãi Province, South Vietnam, Cambodian, Gulf, Thailand, Delta, Viet, Quảng Ngãi, Phuoc Tuy Province, Missouri, West
The market's turn toward treating good economic news as positive for stocks is pictured here in a chart from Citi strategists, showing the three-month correlation between the S & P 500 and the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise index has turned sharply higher. The S & P 500's low for the week was Wednesday morning, right at the 5400 level where it previously hit a low a week ago Friday after a tepid employment report. Forward 12-month S & P 500 earnings forecasts continue to rise smartly, now approaching $270. But, thanks to the past two months of sideways churn, that's down from 21.7 when the S & P first hit its current level in July. And the rally last week could well have front-run any potential positive inference from the Fed's move next week.
Persons: Ally Financial, Ed Hyman, Loretta Mester, William Dudley, John Kolovos Organizations: Citi, Citi U.S, Fed, Ally, CPI, Wall Street, Financial Times, Treasury, National Association of Active Investment, American Association of
And yet, the unemployment rate continues to inch up, job openings continue to fall, and payroll data continue to underwhelm. But how long that enthusiasm can continue to outweigh declining labor market indicators remains to be seen. AdvertisementThe first is declining job openings, which are down to 7.6 million from 2022 highs above 12 million. BullAndBearProfits.comAnother sign Wolfenbarger shared showing the labor market is turning sour is the Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index, which is a composite of 24 job market indicators. BullAndBearProfits.comFinally, in a September 2 note, Wolfenbarger shared a chart from Bank of America showing the decline in private job growth as a share of all job growth.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, there's, BullAndBearProfits.com, John, Hussman, Stocks Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Kansas City Fed's Labor, BullAndBearProfits.com, Bank of America Locations: Kansas
The crew of Alaska Airlines flight 369 “discontinued their takeoff” at Nashville International Airport around 9:15 a.m. CT when Southwest Airlines flight 2029 “was cleared to cross the end of the same runway,” according to the FAA. The Alaska Airlines flight carrying 176 passengers and six crew members braked so suddenly that the crew “reported blown tires during the braking,” the FAA said. “The Alaska aircraft, on its way to Seattle, had received clearance for takeoff from Air Traffic Control,” Alaska Airlines said in a statement. The incident in Nashville also comes just two days after two Delta Air Lines planes collided as both were taxiing for takeoff from Atlanta’s busy Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport. The wheels of a plane are seen after a near-collision involving a Southwest Airlines flight and an Alaska Airlines flight at Nashville International Airport Thursday morning.
Persons: , braked, “ We’re, John F, Kyle Forrester Organizations: CNN, Federal Aviation Administration, National Transportation Safety, Alaska Airlines, Nashville International Airport, Southwest Airlines, FAA, Alaska, Air Traffic Control, NTSB, Employees, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Hartsfield, Jackson International, New, Syracuse Hancock International, Kennedy International Airport, Nashville, FedEx, Investigators Locations: Nashville, , Seattle, Syracuse, JFK, Austin , Texas
China's secret unmanned spacecraft returned to Earth after an eight-month mission. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementChina's secret unmanned spacecraft returned to Earth, bringing no additional clarity on what it was up to. The "reusable experimental spacecraft" went into space on December 14 and returned eight months later, according to a brief issued by state news agency Xinhua on September 6, cited by CNN on Thursday. Xinhua said the mission was a "complete success" and that the spacecraft returned to an unnamed landing site, per CNN.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Xinhua, CNN, Business
A casting agent discovered Ortega in a video her mother put on Facebook. Jenna Ortega was discovered on Facebook. Tamron Hall ShowWhen Ortega was 7 years old, her mother posted a video on Facebook of Ortega performing a monologue. "It was kind of a joke," Ortega said during an interview on the "Tamron Hall Show" in 2021. Ortega was cast in a series of commercials for brands like McDonald's and Old Navy before eventually landing TV and film roles.
Persons: Ortega, Jenna Ortega, Tamron, Organizations: Facebook, Wired, Navy
Economists Ed Hyman is backing off his call for a hard landing, even though he still sees the potential for a recession ahead. "History and experience say to stick with a hard landing outlook," he said in a client note Thursday. "However, the hard math that our team has reviewed says flip to a soft landing outlook. "In our view, arguments for a hard landing are still persuasive," Hyman wrote. "So this flip could be a mistake," Hyman wrote.
Persons: Ed Hyman, Hyman, Ally, Russell Hutchinson, it's Organizations: ISI, Atlanta Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve Locations: New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed doing too little or too much too soon puts a soft landing at risk: Permanent Portfolio’s CugginoMichael Cuggino, president and portfolio manager of the Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss his expectations from next week's Fed meeting, what the gold rally signals, and more.
Persons: Michael Cuggino Organizations: Fed
The pilots of a FedEx cargo plane couldn’t see the runway or the airfield at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. On Thursday, another near-miss was added to the list when an Alaska Airlines plane and a Southwest plane nearly collided in Nashville. In some cases, hero pilots such as Bradeen and Carvajal have kept collision courses from turning deadly. But about three miles out from landing, they grew uneasy when an air traffic controller cleared the Southwest flight to take off in front of them. The pilots’ awareness was heightened, but Bradeen said he didn’t realize a collision was imminent until about 100 or 150 feet away.
Persons: they’re, , , Robert Bradeen, CNN’s Pete Muntean, ” Bradeen, Captain Hugo Carvajal, Rob’s –, , ’ ” Carvajal, Carvajal, Hugo Carvajal, Bradeen, they’ve, Hugo, , didn’t, Jason Ambrosi, Austin, Jennifer Homendy, we’re Organizations: CNN, FedEx, Bergstrom International, Southwest Airlines, National Transportation Safety, National Transportation, Alaska Airlines, Southwest Boeing, NTSB, FedEx Boeing, Southwest, Air Line Pilots Association, FAA Locations: Austin, Alaska, Nashville, Memphis
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