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☆ 'Plenty of reasons to worry': A former IMF official shares 5 reasons the chances of a recession are 'very high' — and warns the Fed should have cut rates already
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Desmond Lachman, a former IMF deputy director, says there are "plenty of reasons to worry" about the US economy in the months ahead. Another risk is the prospect of a second Trump presidency, given his proposed policies around tariffs and taxes, Lachman said. Advertisement"There are a huge number of risks," Lachman said. "The Fed could cut interest rates midmeeting but that would be because the sky was falling. But if the sky is not falling, the Fed doesn't want to give the impression that the sky is falling," Lachman said.

Persons: Desmond Lachman, Lachman —, Lachman, Trump, —, France Organizations: Service, Business, Lachman, American Enterprise Institute, AEI, Trump, EU Locations: China, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Palestine, Iran, France, Italy, Europe

☆ Joseph Stiglitz on why America's appetite for Trump endures
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

If Trump is elected again, Stiglitz said, he could well pull support for Ukraine, sending grain prices soaring. For Stiglitz, the 2001 winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, America's appetite for Trump can be traced back a little more than four decades ago to the election of Ronald Reagan. "We've had 40 years of a neoliberal experiment: Strip away the regulations and lower the taxes — taxes are much lower than they used to be. But Komlos and Stiglitz don't place blame solely on Reagan for the growing economic inequality. Every European country that's had a wealth tax has walked away from it, by and large."

Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump, Stiglitz, Joe Biden, Ronald Reagan, —, that's, Reagan, We've, Dina Litovsky, Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman, That's, Stiglitz doesn't, John Komlos, Komlos, Joe, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Barack Obama, insurrectionists, Desmond Lachman, Carter, Douglas Holtz, Eakin, George W, John McCain's, Holtz, America Stiglitz, Hayek, Friedman, Claudia Sahm, you've, what's Organizations: Columbia Business School, Business, Capitol, Biden, Trump, :, Good Society, America's, Federal Reserve, Budget, Bank, University of Munich, Duke University, University of North, Democratic, North American Free Trade, World Trade Organization, American Enterprise Institute, Bush's, Economic Advisers Locations: Manhattan, Ukraine, Russia, China, Beijing, Taiwan, University of North Carolina, Spain, America

☆ Sam Altman kicked off a flood of ❤️ emoji posts from OpenAI executives. Can someone just tell us if he's coming back or not?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-19 | by ( Kali Hays | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Sam Altman was forced out as CEO of OpenAI on Friday, in dramatic fashion. One that was more snarky than loving: "if i start going off, the openai board should go after me for the full value of my shares." AdvertisementYet, it was the one about the OpenAI team that kicked off our current mystery. Various members of OpenAI staff have liked both tweets. Johnathan Lachman, who heads special projects at OpenAI, retweeted Murati's heart reply to Altman adding "our team spirit is just incredible."

Persons: Sam Altman, Altman, Mira Murati, emojis, —, he'd, OpenAI, She's, Heart, Greg Brockman, what's, Jason Kwon, Brad Lightcap, Romain Huet, Aditya Ramesh, Johnathan Lachman, Brockman's, hasn't, Ilya Sutskever, Brockman, Vinod Khosla, Matthew McConaughey, Kali Hays Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Google, Altman, Twitter Locations: OpenAI, khays@insider.com, @hayskali

United States and Chinese flags are set up before a meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China, Saturday, July 8, 2023. The U.S. economy expanded 1.2% in the second quarter, following 1.6% growth in the first three months of the year. Meanwhile, China's growth outlook continues to darken. "We may see similar growth rates between the U.S. and China, which is a concern for China because it is much poorer per capita," she added. The historic highs and lows of U.S. and Chinese economic surprises, respectively, will likely revert to mean as analysts adjust their expectations.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Mark Schiefelbein, That's, Goldman Sachs, Desmond Lachman, Dirk Willer, Jamie McGeever, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Treasury, Rights, Atlanta Fed's, Barclays, Goldman, American Enterprise Institute, Reuters, Center for Strategic, International Studies, U.S, World Bank, Citi, Thomson Locations: United States, Diaoyutai, Beijing, China, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, U.S

☆ Campbell Soup Company buys Sovos Brands, maker of Rao’s for $2.7 billion
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Eva Rothenberg | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Iconic canned soup company Campbell is expanding its reach in the Italian food market. Campbell (CPB) announced Monday that it would acquire Sovos Brands, maker of the popular Italian food brands like Rao’s sauces and Michael Angelo’s frozen entrees, as well as noosa yogurt, in a deal worth $2.7 billion. But Campbell said Rao’s sauces attract a different consumer set than Prego’s. “Rao’s is the premium, market-leading sauce and it strengthens and diversifies our Meals & Beverages portfolio, complementing the core, mainstream portfolio,” the company told CNN. Sovos Brands founder and head Todd Lachman called the acquisition a “momentous occasion.”“We have built a one-of-a-kind, high growth food company focused on taste-led products across a portfolio of premium brands, anchored by the Rao’s brand,” he said in a statement included in Campbell’s news release.

Persons: Campbell, Angelo’s, “ We’re, ”, Mark Clouse, Rao’s, Michael Angelo’s, Todd Lachman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Campbell, Sovos Brands, Beverages, CNN, “ Locations: New York, noosa, “ noosa

[1/5] A worker sweeps a street in the Central Business District on a rainy day in Beijing, China, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Thomas PeterBEIJING, July 18 (Reuters) - China is entering an era of much slower economic growth, raising a daunting prospect: it may never get rich. He expects growth to slow to 3%, which "will feel like an economic recession" when youth unemployment is already above 20%. The April-June data puts 2023 growth on track for roughly 5%, with slower rates thereafter. But China's annual growth averaged around 7% last decade, and more than 10% in the 2000s.

Persons: Thomas Peter BEIJING, Desmond Lachman, year's, Wang Jun, Zheng Shanjie, Zheng, Richard Koo, Juan Orts, Xi Jinping's, Zhao, Cai Fang, Zhu Ning, Koo, Liangping Gao, Ellen Zhang, Ziyi Tang, Kevin Yao, Joe Cash, Marius Zaharia, David Crawshaw Organizations: Central Business District, REUTERS, American Enterprise Institute, Reuters, Communist, Huatai Asset Management, Reform Commission, Overseas, Nomura Research Institute, Fathom Consulting, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Japan, United States, Young, Africa, Latin, U.S, Central

☆ Forget about a housing market crash, Harvard researchers say. Here are the 4 reasons they say a repeat of the mid-2000s drop in home prices is unlikely.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

They cited a strong labor market, low foreclosure rates, favorable demographics, and low supply. That was their biggest drop since the mid-2000s housing bubble, when home prices fell 27% over the course of a few years. As long as interest rates remain elevated, home price growth will likely continue to slow. First is that the labor market remains healthy. But so far this year, the labor market has continually surprised economists to the upside.

Persons: Hoff, Ian Shepherdson, Desmond Lachman —, millennials, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Z, it's, there's, Louis Organizations: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University, Federal Reserve, Harvard Joint Center for Housing, FHFA National Mortgage Database, Federal Reserve Bank of St, JPMorgan, Mortgage, Association

☆ China slashes interest rates and mulls big stimulus package in bid to revive slowing economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China just slashed short-term interest rates in its economy to 1.9%. Meanwhile, the government is mulling a big stimulus package to prop up key sectors. Short-term interest rates in China were cut to 1.9% from 2% on Tuesday, according to an announcement from the People's Bank of China, marking the first rate cut from China's central bank since August of last year. China's government, meanwhile, is mulling a hefty economic stimulus package, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. That makes the narrative that China will undergo a huge economic rebound is merely a "charade," according to Rockefeller International chair Ruchir Sharma.

Persons: —, Yi Gang, Ruchir Sharma, Desmond Lachman Organizations: Service, People's Bank of, Bloomberg, uts, Rockefeller International, International Monetary Fund Locations: China, People's Bank of China

☆ China is likely headed for a lost decade and won't 'eat our economic lunch,' former IMF official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's economy is stumbling and is likely headed for a lost decade similar to Japan's. That's according to former IMF official Desmond Lachman, who said China may no longer be the world's growth driver. But a lost decade also means "we no longer need to worry that China will eat our economic lunch." "One silver lining of a likely lost Chinese economic decade is that we no longer need to worry that China will eat our economic lunch," Lachman added. "As occurred with the supposed Japanese economic miracle in the 1980s before it, we will find that the Chinese economy had clay feet."

Persons: Desmond Lachman, —, Lachman Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, American Enterprise Institute, Federal Reserve Locations: China, Japan, Barron's

☆ US home prices just jumped for the second-straight month, suggesting the housing downturn could be over. Here are the 6 cities where prices are rising the fastest.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

In the 20-city version of the index, all 20 of the cities saw home prices rise month-over-month. "That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months." "A shortage of listings, plentiful jobs, and strong wage growth are largely offsetting the headwind to housing from high mortgage rates," Adams told Insider. Their reasons include high mortgage rates, historically low affordability, and a potential recession. Below, we've listed in descending order the six cities in the Case-Shiller 20-city index that posted month-over-month growth of at least 2%.

Persons: Craig J, Lazzara, Bill Adams, Adams, Suisse's Ray Farris, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Ian Shepherdson, American Enterprise Institute's Desmond Lachman, Skylar Olsen Organizations: Home, NSA, Redfin, Comerica Bank, American Enterprise Locations: Denver, Detroit, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle, Minneapolis, West Coast, Miami , Florida, Tampa , Florida, Charlotte, North Carolina

☆ Famed economist David Rosenberg says home prices are set to fall further as buyers retreat to the sidelines and a hawkish Fed means stubbornly high mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

With mortgage rates unlikely to budge and incomes unlikely to grow, prices are due to drop. Housing affordability is calculated by accounting for three variables: home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics who said in the 2005 that a housing downturn would spark a recession, made the same argument in recent weeks. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but applications are still falling. This would send interest rates — and therefore mortgage rates, which trade closely with Treasury rates — higher, further hurting demand and affordability, Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi recently told Fortune.

☆ Credit Suisse's chief US economist says home prices will likely fall another 5-10% — and that gridlock between buyers and sellers will prevent both appreciation and a larger crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Credit Suisse's Chief US Economist Ray Farris says home prices will see a 'long recession.' Rather, the market is likely to go through a sort of holding period, where activity stays low and prices neither boom nor bust. You can spread the housing market over many more locales in the US and that's what's happening." And the way I think of that, as a base case, it means that even as mortgage rates come down, the housing market doesn't recover rapidly. Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner is one economist that — like Farris — doesn't expect a recession, and only sees prices falling another 4% this year.

☆ A chief economist who called the 2008 housing crisis says home prices are set to drop another 15% as falling mortgage rates and a recession will create a supply-demand imbalance
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This will drag 30-year mortgage rates — which track closely with 10-year Treasury rates because they typically have a lifespan of around 12 years — down to 6% or lower. One might argue that falling mortgage rates would also stimulate demand enough to meet the rise in supply, holding prices relatively steady. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but mortgage applications are still falling. Tight monetary policy and a pullback in lending will lead to a cooling labor market, he said, and that's bad for housing demand. Below is the National Association of Realtors' Housing Affordability Index, which takes into account incomes, home prices, and mortgage rates.

☆ A former IMF official says it's 'very likely' US home prices fall 15-20% as a credit crunch creates a lose-lose scenario for the housing sector and the debt ceiling standoff threatens a substantial re
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A credit crunch, an already-slowing economy, and the debt-ceiling standoff risk a downturn. If these smaller institutions are loaning out less money, this further hurts demand in the housing market, meaning home prices have to fall accordingly. On the other hand, a credit crunch puts the US economy at significant risk of a recession, Lachman said. "Housing gets hit by tighter credit conditions, but then it also gets hit if the economy goes into recession." KPMG's Yelena Maleyev believes prices could fall as much as 20%, while Interactive Brokers' José Torres sees 15% downside.

☆ This Isn't What Millennial Middle Age Was Supposed to Look Like - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Jessica Grose | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +25 min

Things have been difficult for her family, she says, but one thing she isn’t worried about: a midlife crisis, looming just over the horizon. One of our questions was about whether they had experienced a midlife crisis and how they would define the term. Many people said they felt they couldn’t be having a midlife crisis, because there was no bourgeois numbness to rebel against. “Who has midlife crisis money?”The traditional midlife crisis, as presented in popular culture, at least, unfolds amid suburban ennui. We just increase our Lexapro.”Was the midlife crisis ever even real?

Seven decades ago, Carol Aird and Therese Belivet went on a second date. The film earned six Academy Award nominations and the enduring adoration of queer women the world over, who have dubbed Dec. 21 “Carol Day,” and the holiday season “Carol Season.”One of the best ways to celebrate? ‘Carol’ is that magic for the sapphic community.”Watching “Carol” has also been a holiday tradition for Kaina Dominguez, the founder of The Bush Films, a queer film festival with screenings throughout the year. Queer women-centered site Autostraddle once had a “30 Days of Carol” event, where it posted 30 articles about “Carol” in as many days, and one of its writers also watched “Carol” on a 24-hour endless loop. And then there is ‘Carol,’ braving the tsunamis of ‘business/industry requirements’ and telling the tale of love with sensitivity and honesty.”

☆ Home prices in these 8 markets are falling the fastest as the US housing market slows down at the quickest pace ever
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It's official: home prices in the US are in a downward trend on a national level. This is killing buyers' ability to afford higher prices. Housing affordability — when taking into account home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes — is now at one of its lowest levels in decades, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Scott Buchta, the head of fixed income strategy at Brean Capital, also said in a memo on Wednesday that home price declines would continue, eventually falling on a year-over-year basis. Many see a so-called "Fed pivot" back to dovish policy as necessary for mortgage rates to fall.

☆ In the war on recession, Uncle Sam wants YOU — to party, party, party
▼ + stars: | 2022-08-25 | by ( Desmond Lachman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Eventually the slowing demand spreads out across the economy: lower wages, higher unemployment rates, less consumer spending, and fewer homebuyers. This conventional view on the inevitability of a recession is highly plausible and should not be dismissed lightly. This soaring demand for goods coupled with crippled supply led to a shortage of goods — and sent prices soaring. And while concerns about the economy and the possibility of a recession have increased, people have kept spending. But as price inflation of goods cools, the shift to spending on services can keep the economy going.

☆ International desserts: 50 famous desserts around the world
▼ + stars: | 2018-11-30 | by ( Jen Rose Smith | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +41 min

Taste that rich filling for evidence of the Arab influence that infuses Sicilian cuisine: The candied citrus that often flavors the creamy interior remains beloved throughout the Middle East. In the 1990s, the cake became a menu star as a lava cake or molten chocolate cake. A soft, flaky dough is shaped into a plump half-moon that barely contains the sweet filling, then topped with a light blanket of powdered sugar. Variations on medovik differ widely, but the most popular takes incorporate one of two very Russian ingredients into the sweet filling. Sesame Balls, Jian Dui, ChinaShutterstockBite into the crisp shell of a deep-fried jian dui to discover a sweet filling within the golden, sesame-seed-studded exterior.

Persons: Hong, Austria Natasha Breen, it’s, United States Robert Lachman, Fannie, they’ve, Katharine Hepburn, “, don’t, ” Cannoli, Johanna Kindvall, Ruth Wakefield, Cornes, Brûlée, France David Carson, Louis, Dan Tats, eggy tarts, beignets, Maine’s, Bob Fila, you’re, Gulab Jamun, gulab, Eid, kashata, Kouign Amann, amann, Dominique Ansel, Brittany, kouign amann, kulfi, Pierre Hermé, Torte, daubing, ma’amoul, they’re, blini, United States Nathan Congleton, Pavlova, Aussies, Anna Pavlova, you’ll, Rigó, Rigó Jancsi, Princesse de Caraman, Saffron, Jian, Anita Chu, jian, Xue Hua Bing, Taipei’s, xue, bing, Sticky Rice, rong, treacle, ’, Tatin, you’ve, ”, Tim Krob, tim krob Organizations: CNN, Los Angeles Times, Boston Cooking, Southern, Morocco –, Louis Post, Dispatch, TNS, Chicago Tribune, Gelato, Sudan –, New, NBC, Philadelphia, Taste Research, New Zealand, Kiwis, Midwestern, Le, Central America Locations: Africa, Asia, Italy, Portugal, South, Argentina, Peru, de leche, America, Vienna, Baklava, Turkey, Ottoman, Levant, Balkans, Caucasus, North Africa, Constantinople, Germany, Middle East, East, United States, Fannie Farmer’s, Sicily, Palermo, Sweden, fika, Singapore, pandan, States, Massachusetts, Boston, France, Southern United States, Gazelle, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Moroccan, Tetouan, St, Hong Kong, nata, Macau, Portland, Portland , Oregon, Torta, Hungary, Austro, Europe, Sarajevo, Budapest, Latin America, Spain, Mexico, Chocolat, Gelato, Bologna, India, Persia, York, East Africa, Kifli, Knafeh, Amman, Alexandria, Palestinian, Nablus, Brittany, SoHo, Breton, Kulfi, Mughal, Paris, Austria, Linz, Austrian, Tangier, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, Mozambique, Uganda, Medovik, Russia, borscht, New York, Eastern Europe, Philadelphia, Netherlands, Wageningen, Australia, New, New Zealand, Philippines, Manila, Mexico City, Qatayef, Rigó Jancsi, Belgium, Cream, Iran, Persian, Saffron, Tehran, Tehrangeles, China, Taiwan, Midwestern United States, Midwest, Mango, Thailand, Southeast Asia, United Kingdom, Treviso, Umbria, Ulaanbaatar, Tres, Central, United, Oakland

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