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Here are Wednesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Citi initiates FedEx and UPS as buy Citi said in its initiation note that FedEx and UPS are well positioned. "Netflix remains a compelling growth story with significant room for revenue, earnings, and FCF growth over the next several years." Wells Fargo upgrades Valero to overweight from equal weight Wells said the company is one of the "best independent refiners." Mizuho reiterates Nvidia and Broadcom as outperform Mizuho said it's sticking with its outperform ratings on Nvidia and Broadcom. Wells Fargo reiterates Roblox as overweight Wells Fargo raised its price target on Roblox ahead of earnings in late October to $54 per share from $46.
Persons: underperform Jefferies, Guggenheim, TD Cowen, Cowen, Morgan Stanley, it's bullish, Piper Sandler downgrades Blackstone, Piper, Piper Sandler, Wells, Jefferies, Wolfe, VALE, Chewy, it's, Mizuho, Wells Fargo, Evercore Organizations: Citi, FedEx, UPS, Jefferies, Southwest, Deutsche Bank, Netflix, Deutsche, Inc, MetLife, Barclays, Apple, Apple Intelligence, New York Times, Industry, Nvidia, Broadcom, Mizuho, Lowe's Locations: Valero, underperform, Underperform
Below, four market experts share how investors should allocate their money going forward. The US job market blew past economists' predictions, with total nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 last month — over 100,000 more jobs than expected. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer, Independent Advisor AllianceThe job market is showing signs of strengthening with the September data. With that being said, the current environment presents many opportunities to invest in equities, according to Zaccarelli. "Recession fears are elevated, and we think those are underpriced, underappreciated parts of the market," Zaccarelli said.
Persons: , we've, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Sonders, there'll, it's, Jeffrey Roach, Roach, Lisa Shalett, Morgan, Shalett, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Independent
The September jobs report was surprisingly strong , and the details show that growth came from many different areas of the economy. Within hospitality, food services and drinking places saw jobs jump by 69,000. Professional and business services grew by 17,000 jobs, which is a notable change for a category that had shed jobs in recent months. The only caution flag could be the rise in those with multiple jobs," Roach said. Two key areas that lost jobs last month were manufacturing and transportation and warehousing, though each category shrank by fewer than 10,000 jobs.
Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Roach Organizations: of Labor Statistics . Government, LPL Financial
US stocks rose 1% and the Dow hit a record as the jobs report alleviated slowdown worries. AdvertisementUS stocks surged about 1% on Friday after the September jobs report soothed fears of an economic slowdown. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds of a 50-basis point cut dropped to 0% from 53% last week. Consensus now expects two 25-basis point rate cuts from the Fed at their next two FOMC meetings before year-end. ING's chief economist, James Knightley, said the jobs report was "unambiguously strong."
Persons: , Dow, Sonu Varghese, Jeffrey Roach, James Knightley, Knightley Organizations: Dow, Service, Federal, Fed, Financial Locations: Here's
Humana – Shares plunged more than 22% after the healthcare company announced dire preliminary Medicare Advantage data for 2025. China stocks – Shares of Chinese companies continued to gain amid the broader stimulus rally . Diamondback Energy – The oil stock rose 3% following an upgrade to overweight from equal weight at Barclays. Energy stocks – Shares of energy companies rose following Iran's missile attack on Israel . APA Corp and Marathon Oil both rose more than 2%, and Occidental Petroleum rose more than 1%.
Persons: PDD, Alibaba, Lamb Weston –, Lamb, Betty Jiang, Diamondback, Dan Arnold, Rich Steinmeier, Davidson, , Lisa Kailai Han, Jesse Pound, Sarah Min, Michelle Fox Theobald Organizations: Nike –, Nike, Li Auto, Baidu, Diamondback Energy, Barclays, Endeavor Energy Resources, LPL, LPL Financial, Baird, Energy, APA Corp, Marathon Oil, Occidental Petroleum Locations: China, Israel
Gold and crude oil rallied, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped. On the economic data front, job openings rose unexpectedly in August. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Traders elected to crowd into safe-haven assets like gold as Iran launched a barrage of missiles toward Israel on Tuesday. AdvertisementAs oil rallied, so did gold and the bond market, with investors piling into risk-off assets.
Persons: , Helima Croft, Quincy Krosby, Bill Adams Organizations: Treasury, Service, Traders, RBC Capital Markets, CNBC, Global, LPL, Labor, Comerica Bank Locations: Israel, Iran, Lebanon
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock exchange during morning trading on May 17, 2024. Stock futures slipped in overnight trading following a sour start to the new trading month and final quarter of 2024. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 80 points, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures lost about 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. In after-hours action, Nike slid about 7% after the sneaker giant pulled its full-year guidance ahead of its CEO change. Ahead of Friday's keynote September jobs report, Wall Street on Wednesday will gain insight into the state of private payrolls with ADP's Employment Survey.
Persons: Elliott Hill, Ryan Detrick, nonfarm Organizations: New York Stock, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nike, LPL, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, U.S, Treasury, ADP's, Federal Locations: Iran, Israel, Lebanon
The S&P 500's positive performance this year means that a Harris victory is likely, history says. The S&P 500 has gained 10% since August 5, and if it keeps going up, a Harris victory seems imminent. Likewise, the so-called Misery Index is flashing a Harris victory. If the stock market declines, the outlook for a Harris victory could quickly sour. While these indicators might be flashing a Harris victory for now, nothing's set in stone leading up to this election.
Persons: Harris, , LPL, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, it's, Jerome Powell, Lynch, nothing's Organizations: Service, Comerica Wealth Management, Federal
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 have broken out to new highs this month. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky asked this week, referring to the S & P 500. The S & P 500 had risen more than 5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was higher by more than 1%. For the S & P 500, those levels represent declines of about 6% to 9%, as of Thursday's close. Initial Claims (09/28) 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (September) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services SA final (September) 10 a.m.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Dow, Adam Turnquist, LPL Financial's Turnquist, Jeff Hirsch, he's bullish, Hirsch wouldn't, Lamb Weston, Nonfarm Payrolls, , Nick Wells Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, CNBC, Nasdaq, LPL, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed, PMI, Manufacturing, Nike, McCormick, ADP, PMI Services SA, Services PMI, Constellation Locations: Europe, U.S, Chicago
Stock futures traded near the flatline Thursday night as Wall Street awaits a key inflation reading. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed, as were S&P 500 futures . In the fiscal fourth quarter, the warehouse retailer reported earnings of $5.29 per share on $79.70 billion in fourth-quarter revenue. The so-called PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, and policymakers and Wall Street alike are hoping for figures that show a cooling trend. The three major indexes are higher for the week, with the S&P 500 up nearly 0.8% and the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to rise 0.3%.
Persons: LSEG, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: NYSE, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Costco Wholesale, Financial, Traders Locations: U.S
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on Sept. 23, 2024. U.S. stock futures were little changed Monday after the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted new record closes. Futures tied to the 30-stock Dow slipped 38 points, or 0.09%. S&P 500 futures inched down 0.11%. Earlier in the day, the S&P 500 rose 0.28% and the Dow added 0.15%, resulting in closing records for both indexes.
Persons: Dow, Paul Hickey, There's, You've, Hickey, Quincy Krosby Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Investment, LPL, Traders, Conference, Richmond Fed Locations: Quincy, mull
What lower rates mean for markets
  + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The Fed on Wednesday lowered interest rates, marking the first rate cut since March 2020. A decline in interest rates should, theoretically, mean good news for the stock market. The Fed likely won’t take rates lower as aggressively as they were raised, unless the economy takes a downturn and necessitates loose economic conditions. While mortgage rates and bond yields have begun drifting lower, companies and consumers still might not feel the effects of lower rates right away. But investors with outsized positions in Big Tech stocks should eye beaten-down areas of the market that benefit from lower interest rates, says Diton.
Persons: Dow, Jerome Powell, , Jeff Buchbinder, Powell, Eric Diton Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Fed, Nasdaq, LPL, Wealth Alliance, Tech, Meta, Apple, Big Locations: New York, Big Tech
Tuesday's retail sales data boosted soft landing outlooks. AdvertisementIndexes were mixed on Tuesday with investors still split on the potential size of an interest rate cut, with less than 24-hours to go before the Federal Reserve announces its policy decision. Unanticipated strength in Tuesday's retail sales data convinced investors that the economy remains robust, and the S&P 500 briefly hit a record high before paring gains. Bond yields edged up ahead of the Fed decision, nodding to the possibility that the odds of a jumbo rate cut fell after retail sales surprised to the upside. AdvertisementStrong retail sales suggest that the Fed does not necessarily have to hurry with larger cuts, as the consumer economy appears intact for now.
Persons: , LPL, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, bitcoin, Treasury
Leading technology stocks led an eye-popping rebound rally the past five days, driving a key ETF texchange traded fund to one of its best weeks in years. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) surged 8.2% this week, the most since Nov. 11, 2022, when the fund gained 10.04%. XLK YTD mountain Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) performance this year. Investors can thank a bounce back in megacap technology and semiconductor stocks this week that lifted all three major U.S. stock indexes. That alone suggests semiconductor stocks have lost their leadership status, at least for now, Turnquist said.
Persons: ChatGPT, Jensen Huang, Blackwell, Goldman Sachs, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist Organizations: texchange, Microsoft, Nvidia, Technology, Apple, Apple Watch, Semiconductor, Broadcom, LPL Financial, PHLX Semiconductor Locations: XLK
But there's another lesser-known S&P 500 index that you might not have heard of: the SPW. In contrast, the conventional S&P 500 allocates more weight to the biggest companies based on market capitalization. Big Tech names carry very little debt on their balance sheets, meaning that they are less affected by elevated interest rates. Bank of AmericaIn contrast, the cap-weight S&P 500 is approaching overvalued territory. Examples of SPW index funds include the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and Goldman Sachs Equal Weight U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF (GSEW).
Persons: , that's, Jack Ablin, LPL, Jeff Buchbinder, Savita Subramanian, Buchbinder, Ablin, haven't, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Big Tech, Business, Bank of America, Cresset, Healthcare, financials, Bank of America's, Equity, RSP
An inverted yield curve, in which the nearer-duration yield is higher, has signaled most recessions since World War II. However, a normalization of the curve does not necessary signal good times ahead. In fact, the curve usually does revert before a recession hits, meaning the U.S. could still be in for some rough economic waters ahead. Job openings had exceeded labor supply by more than 2 to 1 at one point, aggravating inflation that had been at its highest level in more than 40 years. That part of the curve is still steeply inverted, with the difference now at more than 1.3 percentage points.
Persons: Raphael Bostic, Quincy Krosby Organizations: CME Group, Atlanta Fed, LPL, Labor Department, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: Chicago, U.S
The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions numbers, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported figures. "The labor market appears weaker than originally reported," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting." Nonfarm payroll jobs totaled 158.7 million through July, an increase of 1.6% from the same month in 2023.
Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Jared Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Federal Reserve, LPL, Goldman Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
We have to remember, the Fed made one mistake, the transitory" call on inflation, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. Specifically, the Fed is faced with how quickly and aggressively it should respond now that the inflation rate is waning . "Jay Powell says they don't want to be data point dependent, and I think that makes sense. I don't think you have signs of weakness in the economy. You don't have signs of inflation being controlled, and you don't have any signal for the Fed to switch focus."
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Jackson, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Richard Clarida, nonfarm payrolls, Powell, Jay Powell, Clarida, we'll, Komal, Kumar, He's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL, CNBC, Sri, Kumar Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
But if you’re investing in a 401(k), daily market dramas are no reason to take dramatic actions with your portfolio. There will be days when the market is up and days when it’s down. What’s more, Ornstein said, “Typically, the best days in the market follow the worst days.” Over the past 20 years, he added, if you had stayed fully invested in the market throughout, your average annual returns would be nearly twice what they would have been had you missed the 10 best days. Say you set up a portfolio of 70% stocks and 30% bonds but now it’s morphed into a 60/40 portfolio. And since 1960 there have been far more positive annual returns on the S&P 500 than negative ones, Smith said.
Persons: Doug Ornstein, you’re, ” Quincy Krosby, Andy Smith, it’s, Ornstein, Smith Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investment, LPL, Edelman Locations: New York, What’s
mapodile/E+/Getty ImagesFor individual investors, the quick-turn global rout in stocks on Monday was unsettling, even with news Tuesday that there is somewhat of a bounce-back going on. But if you’re investing in a 401(k), daily market dramas are no reason to take dramatic actions with your portfolio. Andy Smith, executive director of financial planning at Edelman Financial Engines, puts it this way: “Separate your emotion from your money. Say you set up a portfolio of 70% stocks and 30% bonds but now it’s morphed into a 60/40 portfolio. And remind yourself periodically that even bear markets have not stopped the long-term increases in stocks over time.
Persons: you’re, ” Quincy Krosby, Andy Smith, it’s, Smith Organizations: LPL, Edelman
.VIX 5D mountain The VIX is well off its highs from Monday as the stock market tries to claw back its losses. The VIX, often called Wall Street's "fear gauge," reflects expected volatility over the next 30 days based on the price of S & P 500 options. "Excluding the current shock, there have been 39 VIX spikes to above 35 in our empirical analysis since 1999. Market shock of this magnitude happens on average more than once per year, but is unlikely to sustain. The lingering question now is whether the concerns that pushed the market into a cascade of selling are alleviated," Krosby said.
Persons: , Howard Du, yesterday's selloff, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Bank of America, LPL
US stocks plunged Monday amid recession fears and the yen carry trade unwind. AdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Monday as investors worried about a potential recession and the knock-on effects from the unwind of the yen carry trade. All of those factors have drummed up fears that a recession could be imminent, especially given that the Federal Reserve could be "behind the curve" in its failure to cut interest rates last month. AdvertisementHere's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:Some believe the Fed should implement an emergency interest rate cut, including Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. AdvertisementBut perhaps the biggest driver of Monday's stock market decline was the unwind of the yen carry trade.
Persons: Dow Jones, , payrolls, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, LPL, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Nasdaq, Bank of, Service, Dow Jones, Apple, Amazon, Intel, Federal, Here's, Bank of Japan, Yahoo Finance Locations: Japan
S&P 500 futures bounced in overnight trading after the broad index notched its worst day in nearly two years as global markets sold off. Futures tied to the S&P 500 rose 0.9%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rallied 1.2%. The 30-stock Dow dropped 1,033.99 points, or 2.6%, while the S&P 500 slid 3%. These fears spilled over into global markets, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index registering its worst daily decline since Black Monday in 1987. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down 5%, 6% and 8% respectively in three days, their worst 3-day performance in more than two years.
Persons: Dow, Quincy Krosby, LPL, Tesla, It's, Keith Lerner, Truist's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Futures, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Nvidia, Apple, VanEck Semiconductor, Traders, Palantir Technologies, Lucid Group Locations: New York City
The S & P 500 is down about 6% from its all-time high following Friday's losses, making this the second decline of greater than 5% this year. Bank of America also found that, in the last century, the stock market experienced on average one 10% correction a year. So, if the S & P 500 follows the Nasdaq Composite into correction territory, that too would be just normal market activity for any given year. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD History shows that this market behavior doesn't change much in election years. To be sure, this has been a unique cycle in that the stock market rallied during Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Piper, Adam Turnquist, there's, we're, — CNBC's Pia Singh Organizations: Bank of America, Nasdaq, Corrections
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on July 31, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures slid on Thursday night as traders considered fresh results from Amazon and Intel. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 143 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.8%. Even the small-cap Russell 2000 hasn't been spared from the recent tumult, down about 3.3% in the period and on pace for its worst weekly performance since January. On the earnings front, energy giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil will be announcing their quarterly results Friday before the market open.
Persons: July's, Dow, Quincy Krosby, Arnim Holzer, Russell, " Holzer, hasn't, payrolls, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Amazon, Intel, Investors, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Apple, LPL, EAB Investment, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: New York City . U.S, Thursday's
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