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☆ Bank of England central counterparty stress tests confirm resilience
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The Bank of England is seen in the City of London, Britain, February 14, 2017. REUTERS/Hannah McKay Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Wednesday said results of stress tests on central counterparties (CCPs) showed continued resilience at the businesses, which help clear and settle trades in financial instruments and commodities essential for the global economy. "The results confirm the continued resilience of UK CCPs to market stress scenarios that are of equal and greater severity than the worst-ever historical market stresses," said Sarah Breeden, the BoE's Deputy Governor for Financial Stability. The stress tests covered three central counterparties which operate in Britain, ICE Clear Europe Limited (ICE.N), LCH Limited, a part of LSEG (LSEG.L), and LME Clear Limited, owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (0388.HK). The BoE said it would use the findings "to support and inform its ongoing supervision and regulation of UK CCPs".

Persons: Hannah McKay, Sarah Breeden, BoE, William James, David Milliken, Sarah Young Organizations: of, City of, REUTERS, Bank of England, Financial Stability, ICE Clear Europe, LCH, LME Clear, Hong Kong Exchanges, Clearing, HK, LME, Thomson Locations: of England, City, City of London, Britain, LSEG, LME Base

REUTERS/Yusuf Ahmad/File Photo - RC2DGT9XQ73M Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Global nickel production will outpace demand to the tune of 239,000 metric tons next year, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG). The cumulative forecast surplus of 566,000 metric tons over the three years is huge relative to the size of the nickel market. Global consumption this year is expected to come in at 3.2 million metric tons. The mining rush fed an 85% jump in production of intermediate products such as nickel pig iron (NPI) and nickel matte and a 20% rise in primary nickel products such as sulphate. But rising global production is also increasingly about China, which lifted its primary nickel production by 18% year-on-year in January-July.

Persons: Yusuf Ahmad, it's, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Study, Global, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Investor, EV, Macquarie Bank, Traders, London, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Lisbon, London, Indonesia, China, Shanghai

LME three-month zinc hit a near three-year low of $2,215 per metric ton in May. LME zinc price stocks and spreadsSQUEEZE DRAWS OUT HIDDEN METALThe trigger for the current spate of arrivals in the LME warehouse system appears to have been a sharp contraction in short-dated time-spreads earlier this month. If so, the game is on in Singapore, which has accounted for all the recent arrivals bar 1,000 metric tons at Malaysia's Port Klang. A total 31,500 metric tons of zinc were warranted in the city in July along with 5,125 metric tons of lead and 625 metric tons of tin. In the interim, there is plenty of potential for more metal to head towards LME storage sheds.

Persons: Ilya Naymushin, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, Citibank, Low, Study, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Angara, Novoangars, Russia, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang ., East Asia, China, Europe, Ireland

Median 2023 price forecasts for all the core LME base metals are lower than both last year's price and current trading levels. The LME copper cash settlement price was $9,075 per tonne on Tuesday, up 10% on the start of January. A median forecast of $8,625 for the full year is 2.1% lower than last year's average of $8,814 per tonne. Aluminium is viewed as more finely balanced, with a median forecast supply surplus of 80,535 tonnes this year and 92,100 tonnes in 2024. That said, last January's median forecast proved surprisingly close to the mark at $34,880 in what was a year of extraordinary volatility.

China's own production of refined tin was flat year-on-year at 165,900 tonnes in 2022, according to Shanghai Metal Market. ShFE tin price, market open interest and stocksSHIFT IN POSITIONINGWhile China has reshaped tin's fundamental picture, the price recovery has forced an equally significant shift in fund positioning. Investment funds turned net short on the LME tin contract in September as the price was imploding. Tin market open interest collapsed from 102,106 to 71,218 contracts in the week before the Lunar New Year holidays, indicating a big clean-out of short positions. GOLDILOCKS PRICEThe tin price is now in the Goldilocks zone, not high enough to frighten off physical users, and not low enough to threaten existing supply.

It's the lowest end-year inventory in the system this century and reflects two years of steady withdrawals which have left exchange stocks of metals such as zinc and lead almost depleted. It's no coincidence that all the LME base metals have experienced bouts of extreme tightness over the last couple of years. Zinc stocks were down by 65% and lead stocks down by 59% on December 2021. LME stocks could desperately do with any sort of rebuild, whether seasonal or cyclical. So far, however, significant arrivals remain conspicuous by their absence and until that changes, low visible inventory is going to keep roiling the LME base metals.

REUTERS/Alexandre MeneghiniLONDON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The puzzle facing the zinc market is whether demand or supply will fall hardest this year. LME zinc fund net positioningLOW STOCKSThe outright price is falling despite low exchange inventory. Fastmarkets assessments of Antwerp and Italy premiumsSUPPLY HITEurope is at the epicentre of the global zinc supply hit as smelters struggle to cope with soaring power prices. SHIFTING BALANCEZinc's micro dynamics are shifting fast and at the moment it seems that the demand hit is outpacing the supply hit. It's the demand outlook that's weighing on the outright zinc price.

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