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☆ How Russia's war economy and defense spending could actually make it weaker
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Russia's President Vladimir Putin visits Uralvagonzavod, the country's main tank factory in the Urals, in Nizhny Tagil on February 15, 2024. Ramil Sitdikov | Afp | Getty ImagesRussia's war-orientated economy and plans for unprecedented military spending risk deepening major imbalances within the government's finances, analysts say. Russia's military-industrial complex, feeding an insatiable war machine, has expanded significantly since the war began, as a result. Signalling its commitment to prosecuting the war in Ukraine, combined spending on both national defense and security will account for around 40% of Russia's total government spending in 2025, the draft budget suggested. Notably, defense spending will exceed twice the amount allocated for social needs such as pensions, Reuters noted.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Uralvagonzavod, Ramil Sitdikov, Mikhail Mishustin, Tursa, Liam Peach, Peach, Alexander NEMENOV, ALEXANDER NEMENOV, Alexander Nemenov Organizations: Afp, Getty, Reuters, Sputnik, Capital Economics, Russian Statistics Agency Locations: Urals, Nizhny Tagil, Ukraine, Russia, Russian, Western, Central, Eastern Europe, Moscow, AFP

☆ Turkey's inflation accelerates to nearly 70% in April
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey's inflation accelerated to 69.8% annually for the month of April, the Turkish Statistical Institute reported Friday. On a monthly basis, Turkey's inflation increased 3.18%, led by price rises in alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and hotels, cafes and restaurants. April's inflation rate marks the highest annual increase since November 2022, when inflation was around 85%. But any hopes of interest rate cuts are a long way off, economists said. Turkey's central bank has hiked its key interest rate to 50%, citing the continuing need to counter climbing inflation in the country.

Persons: Kemal Ataturk, April's, Liam Peach Organizations: Turkish, Turkish Statistical Institute, Economics Locations: Turkish, Sisli, Istanbul, Turkey, London

☆ War, reforms and a possible successor? Here's what we could see from 6 more years of Putin
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Analysts share their views on what we can expect now that Putin has strengthened his grip on power, with the Ukraine war, domestic economic reforms and a possible government reshuffle key factors to watch. Having cleared more of a procedural hurdle than a real test of his policies and popularity in the election, Putin will have more freedom to advance contentious reforms at home, analysts note. Russian President Vladimir Putin delivering an annual address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, at Moscow's Gostiny Dvor, in Moscow on Feb. 29, 2024. MOSCOW, RUSSIA - JANUARY 8: (RUSSIA OUT) A woman eats hot corn while walking along the Red Square near the Kremlin, as air temperatures dropped to -18 degrees Celcius, January,8 2024, in Moscow, Russia. However, with the dynamics of the war now shifting in Russia's favor, Putin might feel more confident with the reshuffle.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Natalia Kolesnikova, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, embolden Putin, Liam Peach, Jose Colon, Anton Siluanov, Tursa, Adeline Van Houtte, Donald Trump, Dmitry Peskov, Peach, he's, Sergei Shoigu, Sergei Lavrov, Mikhail Mishustin, Dmitry Medvedev, Gavriil Organizations: Afp, Getty, Kremlin, Commission, Analysts, U.S, Capital Economics, Anadolu, Anadolu Agency, Economist Intelligence Unit, Federal Assembly, Russian Federation, New, Putin, Security Council, Sputnik Locations: Crimea, Red, Moscow, Russia, Russian, Central, Ukraine, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Eastern Europe, Europe, U.S, Russia's, MOSCOW, RUSSIA

☆ 'Porous' sanctions haven't stopped Russia's war, but there's still more the West can do to squeeze its economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-10 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

According to Peach, sanctions haven't halted money from non-Western countries flowing to Russia. Even G7's bid to curb export income through a $60 per barrel cap on the price of oil hasn't really hobbled Moscow's oil trade. The West has reduced imports of Russian energy significantly but Russia has largely re-routed oil exports to Asia." Peach wrote that the West could squeeze Russian energy more by slapping secondary sanctions on third-party purchases of oil and gas from the country. AdvertisementBut it's unlikely for the West to take this path, he added, given Russia's energy dominance and the risk of sparking volatility that could end up antagonizing partners like India.

Persons: —, Vladimir Putin, Owen Matthews ,, Putin, Liam Peach, Peach, Matthews, Russia mobilizes Organizations: Service, Business, Capital Economics, Export, Central Bank of Russia, Russia, China Goods Trade, SA Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Nord, Turkey, UAE, Asia, Europe, Russian, China, Dubai, American, India

☆ Turkish annual inflation soars to 67% in February
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Turkish annual consumer price inflation soared to 67.07% in February, the Turkish Statistical Institute said Monday, coming in above expectations. Analysts polled by Reuters had anticipated annual inflation would climb to 65.7% last month. The combined sector of hotels, cafes and restaurants saw the greatest annual price inflation increase at 94.78%, followed by education at 91.84%, while the rate for health stood at 81.25% and transportation at 77.98%, according to the statistical institute. "Obviously a disappointing set of inflation prints this morning," Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, wrote in a note. He added that this development has "continued to put downward pressure on the lira," creating an inflation pass-through.

Persons: Liam Peach, Mehmet Simsek, Turkey's, Timothy Ash, Ash Organizations: Turkish Statistical Institute, Reuters, Food, Economics, Capital Economics, Turkish, BlueBay Asset Management, FX Locations: Sariyer, Istanbul, Turkish, London

☆ Premarket stocks: Joe Biden’s top economic adviser isn’t worried about the latest inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New York CNN —US markets broke a five-week winning streak last Friday after disappointing inflation data reignited economic and interest rate-related fears on Wall Street. Then last week, two key inflation indicators for January — the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index — rose above Wall Street expectations. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the new data showed that the Fed needs more confidence before cutting rates. I think in this case, the market isn’t necessarily telling you much about the economy’s fundamentals, the market is telling you what other market participants think. And I think that those economic fundamentals get you to the part that says, you know, it’s not not the economy.

Persons: Price, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, isn’t, Bell, Jared Bernstein, Joe Biden, I’m, they’re, It’s, it’s, Joe Weisenthal, Elisabeth Buchwald, Hanna Ziady, Liam Peach, ” Peach Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, White House Council, Economic Advisers, CPI, Apple, Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, Capital, Discover Financial Services, Discover, Hamas, Gross, Israel’s, Bureau, Statistics, Capital Economics Locations: New York

☆ Israel’s economy slumps in the fourth quarter as war takes a toll
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —Israel’s output contracted sharply in the final three months of 2023, falling for the first time in nearly two years, as the war with Hamas takes a heavy toll on the economy. The conflict is expected to cost Israel around 255 billion shekels ($70.3 billion) by the end of 2025, equivalent to around 13% of GDP, according to the Bank of Israel. And earlier this month, Moody’s delivered Israel’s first ever credit rating downgrade, citing elevated political risk and deteriorating public finances stemming from the war. “Under a scenario of outright conflict… the negative economic impact would spread to more sectors and be longer-lasting,” Moody’s said. In 2023 as a whole, Israel’s economy grew 2%, according to the statistics office.

Persons: Liam Peach, ” Peach, Moody’s, Israel’s, ”, ” Moody’s, Ido Soen Organizations: London CNN, Hamas, Gross, Israel’s, Bureau, Statistics, Israel, Capital Economics, Bank of Israel Locations: Gaza, Israel, Lebanese

ISTANBUL (AP) — Turkey has seen its fifth central bank leader depart in as many years as Hafize Gaye Erkan, the first woman in the top role, stepped down after just eight months in the job. Photos You Should See View All 45 ImagesHere are key things to know about the central bank shakeup and what it means for Turkey's battered economy:WHY IS THERE A NEW CENTRAL BANK LEADER? Erkan resigned after weeks of media stories about her father’s undue influence in the central bank’s Istanbul office. Previous changes in central bank leadership has seen Erdogan row back on efforts to bring inflation under control through interest rate hikes. He was brought in as the bank’s deputy head at the same time Simsek took over the Finance Ministry and Erkan was appointed to lead the central bank.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Goldman Sachs, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, — Erkan, ”, Fatih Karahan, Mehmet Simsek, Erdogan, Erkan, Karahan, Simsek's, Simsek, Liam Peach, Selcuki, ” “ It’s, ” Selcuki Organizations: —, Finance, WHO, FATIH, Finance Ministry, University of Pennsylvania, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Amazon, Capital Economics, Istanbul Economy Research Locations: ISTANBUL, — Turkey, Turkey, Istanbul, Simsek, U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Columbia, New York, Ankara

☆ VIEW Turkey central bank ramps up interest rates to 40%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A logo of Turkey's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. Below reaction from analysts to the decision:LIAM PEACH, CAPITAL ECONOMICS, LONDON"(Turkey's central bank) suggested that it is very close to the end of the tightening cycle. For the central bank to have any chance of achieving single digit inflation this decade, rates will need to stay at this level for some time." BARTOSZ SAWICKI, CONOTOXIA FINTECH, WARSAW"In October the annual inflation rate inched lower and external price dynamics have turned a tad more favourable. The risk of a sharp slowdown in activity points to less aggressive continuation of the tightening cycle.

Persons: Cagla, LIAM PEACH, CONOTOXIA, Karin Strohecker, Ezgi, Susan Fenton Organizations: Turkey's Central, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, CONOTOXIA FINTECH, WARSAW

Nabiullina also said the budget was a significant factor in Friday's decision. "It looks like today's interest rate hike front-loaded the tightening cycle in response to the fiscal announcements earlier this month," said Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. The central bank's tightening cycle began this summer when inflationary pressure from a tight labour market, strong consumer demand and the budget deficit was compounded by the falling rouble. But the bank set its 2023 key rate range at 15-15.2%, suggesting rates could climb further and Nabiullina said that may be required. Sinara Investment Bank analyst Sergei Konygin said the lack of forward hawkish guidance meant it was highly likely the key rate had already reached its upper boundary.

Persons: Elvira Nabiullina, Nabiullina, Liam Peach, Dmitry Polevoy, Sergei Konygin, Vladimir Soldatkin, Elena Fabrichnaya, Alexander Marrow, Gareth Jones, Mark Trevelyan, John Stonestreet, Mike Harrison Organizations: Bank, Russia, Bank of Russia, Capital Economics, Reuters, Sinara Investment Bank, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Ukraine, Moscow, Locko, London

National flag flies over the Russian Central Bank headquarters in Moscow, Russia May 27, 2022. On Friday, it gave hawkish guidance that it would consider further rate increases at upcoming meetings and said inflationary risks remained significant. The central bank adjusted its year-end forecast for inflation to 6.0-7.0% from 5.0-6.5%. "Russia's central bank is a hawkish institution that takes its commitment to inflation fighting seriously," said Senior Emerging Markets Economist Liam Peach. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina will shed more light on the bank's forecasts and policy in a media briefing at 1200 GMT.

Persons: Maxim Shemetov, jacking, Liam Peach, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Alexander Marrow, Elena Fabrichnaya, Darya Korsunskaya, Maria Kiselyova, Amruta Khandekar, Andrew Osborn, William Maclean, Catherine Evans Organizations: Russian Central Bank, REUTERS, Kremlin, Capital Economics, Central Bank Governor, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Russian, Ukraine MOSCOW, Ukraine, London

That’s almost three times what Russia spent on defense in 2021, before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Those figures are likely to underestimate the total spent on Russia’s war effort. He said that before the war Russia would typically splash around 3-4% of its annual gross domestic product on defense but now it could be anywhere between 8% and 10%. Russia’s exports are still greater than the value of its imports, despite a boost to the latter from the hefty military spending. Rising military spending is, on the other hand, boosting Russia’s industrial output and, with it, GDP.

Persons: London CNN —, Vladimir Putin, Putin, That’s, Richard Connolly, Janis Kluge, Irina Okladnikova, Liam Peach, it’s, Peach, Kluge, “, ”, —, Maksim Konstantinov, Alexandra Suslina, Suslina, Alexandra Prokopenko, Prokopenko, — Anna Cooban, Tim Lister, Olesya Dmitracova Organizations: London CNN, Reuters, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Royal United Services Institute for Defence, Security Studies, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Capital Economics, CNN, “, ZUMA, International Monetary Fund, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, International Energy Agency, West Locations: “, Ukraine, Russia, Stockholm, Moscow, “ Russia, Russian, Saint Petersburg, Soviet, Berlin

☆ VIEW Turkey cements policy shift with super-sized rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A logo of Turkey's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. "We should recall that sudden changes in interest rates usually have a delayed effect. "This was also the steepest rate hike since the CBT management reshuffle after the elections in May. We think the strong rate hike meant to address market concerns that the CBT wanted to avoid significant rate hike." TIMOTHY ASH, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT, LONDON"Really solid move by the CBRT (central bank) to hike policy rates arguably above expectations by 750bps to 25%."

Persons: Cagla, GRZEGORZ DROZDZ, TIMOTHY ASH, 750bps, Hatice Karahan, Hatice Gaye, PIOTR MATYS, Governor Erkan, Erdogan, LIAM PEACH, Erkan, OZKARDESKAYA, SWISSQUOTE Organizations: Turkey's Central, REUTERS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Turkish, EMERGINGMARKETWATCH.COM, SOFIA, GENEVA

☆ The Kremlin's top brass are trying to pass the buck over the ruble's collapse. This rare public infighting shows just how precarious Russia's wartime economy is.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Kremlin's top brass are trying to pass the buck over the ruble's collapse. Russia's central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, said the weak ruble is due to changing trade flows. "A weak ruble complicates the economy's structural transformation and negatively influences real household earnings. "Blaming the central bank is like a drunkard's search — looking for the guilty where the light is," she said, the Financial Times reported earlier this week. The Kremlin, Russia's central bank, and Capital Economics did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Insider.

Persons: Putin's, Elvira Nabiullina, Maxim Oreshkin, Vladimir Putin's, Oreshkin, Nabiullina —, —, Liam Peach, Putin, Max Seddon, you've Organizations: Service, TASS, Financial Times, Capital Economics Locations: Wall, Silicon, Russian, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Surgut

☆ Investors look beyond Turkey rate hike disappointment, for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Jorgelina Do Rosario | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"There is a huge gap between rates and inflation, but investors still have faith in this policy shift," Peach said. "They will tolerate a gradual tightening cycle if the key rate rises towards 30% at the end of the year." International bonds are still widely held by foreign investors, though much less so the domestic ones exposed to the lira currency's wild swings. BETTER BUFFERSRising central bank reserves are another positive sign. JPMorgan raised its inflation outlook for Turkey after the rate hike, now expecting year-end inflation at 57% versus 50% previously.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Nick Eisinger, Liam Peach, Peach, Paul McNamara, Emre Akcakmak, It's, Cagri Kutman, Jorgelina, Karin Strohecker, John Stonestreet Organizations: LONDON, Vanguard, Capital Economics, GAM Investments, Net, East Capital, JPMorgan, United Arab, KNG Securities, Thomson Locations: Turkey, London, United Arab Emirates, Rosario

☆ Turkey inflation dips to 39.6% on relief from free gas
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ISTANBUL, June 5 (Reuters) - Turkish annual inflation fell to 39.59% in May, official data showed on Monday, broadly in line with expectations, largely due to the government offsetting price rises in other goods by providing natural gas free of charge. The government had pledged ahead of last month's elections that it would provide free gas in May, and a monthly free 25 cubic metres until May 2024. The poll had forecast that annual consumer price inflation (CPI) (TRCPIY=ECI) would be 39.2%, and was expected to end the year at 45%. Clothing and shoe prices recorded the largest monthly increase with 9.85%, followed by restaurant and hotel prices with 7.10%. The weight of natural gas in the inflation basket is 2.9%.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Liam Peach, Peach, Cevdet Yilmaz, Canan Sevgili, Daren Butler, Ali Kucukgocmen, Jonathan Spicer, William Maclean Organizations: Turkish Statistical Institute, Treasury, Finance, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL

☆ Turkish lira sinks to new record low on possibility of Erdogan re-election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The Turkish lira slipped 0.5% to trade at 19.70 against the US dollar, a record low. The uncertainty has investors in Turkish government bonds worrying about the country’s ability to pay them back. Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate at the AK Party headquarters on May 14, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey. Annual consumer price inflation surged to 85% in October, before slowing to 44% in April, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute shows. “A victory for President Erdogan, which now looks like the base case scenario… would be negative for Turkey’s macroeconomic stability and financial markets,” Peach added.

The Romanian central bank said slower economic growth and cheaper energy would help bring inflation down to single digits this year from over 16% now, earlier than previously forecast. "So the main question is when inflation in the region will fall enough that central banks will be willing to start normalising monetary conditions." Inflation is still expected to rise in early 2023 in some central European countries, based on central bank forecasts, before returning to single-digit territory by year-end. "This will help to improve external positions and lower inflation pressures in Central and Eastern Europe." "Given the dovish bias around the growth-inflation trade-off at Poland's central bank, we think the risk of premature policy easing is greatest there."

☆ Analysis: Central Europe's policymakers try to call time on rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Jason Hovet | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Czech Crown coins are seen in front of a displayed logo of Czech central bank (CNB) in this picture illustration taken April 1, 2017. Whether it can do so will depend much on wage pressures subsiding and how much a weakening market mood will hurt its currencies. "In Hungary, I think there is still road ahead (for rate hikes)," Juraj Kotian, an economist with Erste Group Bank, said. read moreAnalysts, though, see further rate hikes even after Tuesday. In August, the inflation rate slowed to 17.2% - the first sign of a price peak in central Europe.

☆ Russian stocks plunge to February invasion lows
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

An activist participates in an unsanctioned protest at Arbat Street Sept. 21, 2022 in Moscow, Russia. The sign plays on the word mobilization as "No burialization." Russian stocks fell sharply on Monday to reach their lowest point since Feb. 24, the day the first Russian troops entered Ukraine. The MOEX Russia Index was down 6.9% by early afternoon in Europe, having fallen as much as 7.4% earlier in the session. Markets in Moscow have been in general decline since President Vladimir Putin announced a military mobilization last week, setting the Russian economy on a war footing and likely prolonging the conflict in Ukraine.

☆ Turkey's lira at fresh record low after surprise rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Turkish lira banknote is displayed on U.S. Dollar banknotes in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Turkish lira sank to a fresh record low on Thursday after the central bank delivered yet another surprise interest rate cut, this time of 100 basis points. IPEK OZKARDESKAYA, SENIOR ANALYST, SWISSQUOTE BANK"The CBRT cut the policy rates by 100 bps for the second month. As an economist, it's hard to comment on this decision, because normally, higher inflation requires higher interest rates. Every rate cut gets the Turkish rates away from the fair value, and weigh on the country risks and the FX rates.

A logo of Turkey's Central Bank (TCMB) is pictured at the entrance of the bank's headquarters in Ankara, Turkey April 19, 2015. Turkey's lira touched a record 18.42 versus the dollar, surpassing the level reached during a full-blown currency crisis last December. The European Central Bank also raised its key rates by 75 basis points this month. One had predicted a 50 basis-point cut to 12.50%, while two forecast a 100 basis-point cut to 12%. Turkish lira timeline September 2022Each rate cut weighs more on country risks and the lira, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

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