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Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFears are mounting that the U.S. could soon experience its own version of Britain's "mini-budget" crisis, with bond strategists warning that Donald Trump's return to the White House brings with it the specter of currency volatility and surging bond yields. The former president's economic agenda has ratcheted up concerns about a surge in consumer prices, which strategists say could spark significant shifts in bond yields and investor behavior. They warn a scenario that mirrors Britain's mini-budget crisis of 2022 is not out of the question. watch nowBritain's mini-budget crisis refers to a tumultuous period under former Prime Minister Liz Truss and ex-Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. Bond yields tend to rise when market participants expect higher consumer prices or a growing budget deficit.
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Trump, Remtulla, Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng, Kwarteng, Althea Spinozzi, Trump's, Spinozzi, Angela Weiss, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Thierry Wizman, likelier, Wizman Organizations: Economic, of New, Bloomberg, Getty, EFG, CNBC, U.S ., Finance, U.S, Bank of England, Saxo Bank, White, Treasury, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Capital Economics, Macquarie Group Locations: of New York, New York, U.S, Foreign, Treasurys, Treasuries, New York City, America
LONDON — The new U.K. government is on Thursday set to propose legislation to prevent "significant uncosted measures" from being announced without an analysis of their impact on public finances. The OBR would be able to produce its analysis at the time of its choosing, according to notes on the bill released Wednesday. The notes contain a veiled reference to what became known as the British "mini-budget crisis" under former Prime Minister Liz Truss and ex-Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. Shortly after taking up their posts in early September 2022, Truss and Kwarteng announced a raft of tax cuts in an unscheduled fiscal announcement that was described by analysts as "seismic." Both Truss and Kwarteng resigned over the turmoil after less than two months in their respective offices, and the majority of the measures were reversed.
Persons: Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng, Kwarteng, Truss Organizations: Labour, Finance, U.S, Bank of England Locations: British
Investors cautioned that tax breaks would not be sufficient to raise business investment while UK interest rates stayed high. But Wednesday, equity markets focused on Hunt's business boosts, such as a move to make full expensing on investment permanent. UK stock markets have underperformed their European and U.S. peers in 2023. The FTSE 100 index 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 10.7, about half that of U.S. stocks, with Hunt's budget unlikely to move the dial too far. Reuters GraphicsSTERLING SOGGYThe pound struggled to gain any traction on the back of Hunt's budget.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kwasi Kwarteng, Leigh Himsworth, Simon Harvey, Philip Shaw, Thomas McGarrity, Fuller, Smith, Turner, Oli Creasey, It's, BoE, GILTS, Craig Erlam, Goldman Sachs, Naomi Rovnick, Samuel Indyk, Lucy Raitano, Amanda Cooper, Harry Robertson, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Wednesday, Traders, Investors, Fidelity International, Reuters Graphics, Bank of England, BT, Investec, RBC Wealth Management, Reuters, BREWERS, Debt Management, Reuters Graphics STERLING, Thomson Locations: U.S, Cheviot, gilts, London
PRIME MINISTERCameron served as prime minister until July 13, 2016, three weeks after the Brexit vote on June 23. She holds the record for Britain's shortest-serving prime minister after she quit after 49 days, having triggered a financial market meltdown. Philip Hammond was foreign secretary from July 2014 until three weeks after the Brexit vote in 2016. INTERIOR MINISTERBritain's interior ministry has changed leadership eight times since the Brexit vote, including Cleverly who stepped into the role on Monday. There have been 13 housing ministers since the Brexit vote, including six since Feb. 8, 2022.
Persons: Sarah Young, Rishi Sunak, David Cameron, Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Sunak, James, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Johnson, Philip Hammond, Suella Braverman, Grant Shapps, Truss, Hunt, Kwarteng, Victoria Atkins, Monday, Steve Barclay, Gillian Keegan, Kate Holton, Alex Richardson Organizations: Sarah Young LONDON, British, European Union, Conservative Party, FINANCE, National Health Service Locations: Westminster, Britain, European, Truss, Crete, Kabul, Cameron
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLIVERPOOL, England — The U.K.'s main opposition Labour party is seeking to woo London's powerful financial center as it sets its sights on winning power at next year's General Election. At the party's conference this week, lawmakers were unanimous in emphasizing Labour's renewed focus under leader Keir Starmer on spurring economic growth as its number one priority. Speaking at a fringe event on Sunday, Shadow Financial Secretary to the Treasury James Murray reiterated the party's mission of achieving the highest growth in the G7 and engaging the private sector. It really is crucial to underpin the encouragement of businesses to invest, to underpin everyone working together for economic growth," Murray added. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a host of new economic pledges aimed at stimulating growth, vowing to "rebuild Britain" if Labour wins the 2024 General Election.
Persons: Keir Starmer, James Murray, Murray, Rishi, Liz Truss's, Kwasi Kwarteng, Rachel Reeves, Reeves, Jeremy Corbyn, Starmer, Emma Reynolds Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Labour, Shadow, Conservative Party, Treasury Locations: Canary, London, LIVERPOOL, England, Britain, Liverpool
LIVERPOOL, England — Britain's main opposition Labour party on Monday vowed to "rebuild Britain" if it wins the 2024 General Election, as Shadow Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced a host of new economic pledges aimed at stimulating growth. The lifeblood of a growing economy is business investment," Reeves said, further cementing the party's recalibration in recent years as a centrist, pro-business alternative to the ruling Conservatives. Truss and then-Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng opted not to seek an independent appraisal from the OBR, breaking with traditional norms of economic policy. Labour holds around a 20-point lead over the Conservatives across most major polling, with the ruling party damaged by a string of scandals and the fallout from Sunak's predecessor Liz Truss's "mini-budget." In order to catalyze and de-risk business investment, Labour would create a new national wealth fund, Reeves also announced.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Jeremy Hunt, Reeves, Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng, Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss's Organizations: Labour, Shadow, Conservative Party Locations: LIVERPOOL, England, Britain, Liverpool, France, Germany, America
London CNN —When Liz Truss was briefly Britain’s prime minister a year ago, the world’s sixth-largest economy came close to resembling Argentina, a country plagued by financial and economic instability. Truss and her Brexit-backing allies have long argued that lower taxes and fewer regulations — akin to Singapore’s approach — would help kickstart sorely needed growth in the UK. Britain, for its part, is battling stubbornly high inflation, feeble economic growth and a rising public debt burden, which is the costliest to service among rich economies. At the time, Carney, who was head of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020, accused Truss’s government of “undercutting” the nation’s economic institutions. “Mark Carney is part of the 25-year economic consensus that has led to low growth across the Western world,” she said.
Persons: Liz Truss, Mark Carney, kickstart, Carney, , Kwasi Kwarteng, Truss’s, undercutting, “ Mark Carney, , ” Truss, Olesya Dmitracova Organizations: London CNN, Bank of England, Institute for Government Locations: Argentina, United Kingdom, Montreal, Singapore, London
Pound's mini-budget dip made UK's Brexit bill dearer
  + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
In previous years, the Treasury's "reportable losses" have ranged between zero and a few million pounds. This 855 million-euro payment cost Britain 764 million pounds on a day when 1 pound would buy only 1.12 euros. Back in April 2022, when the EU updated Britain's payment schedule for June through September, it assumed an exchange rate of around 1.18 euros per pound - equating to monthly payments of 719 million pounds rather than 764 million pounds. Still, that small net gain represents a sharp drop from March 2022 when it stood at 91.2 million pounds - with the payment on Sept. 30 a conspicuous loss-maker. Economists put the broader costs of the mini-budget episode - stemming from loss of investor confidence and higher market interest rates - in the billions of pounds.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Liz Truss's, James Murray, Kwasi Kwarteng, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, European Union, Britain, Treasury, Labour Party, Reuters, Thomson
It means mortgage costs are now at their highest level since August 2008 during the global financial crisis. The average 5-year mortgage rate rose to 6.17% on Tuesday, Moneyfacts said, a marginal increase from Monday but still some way off the 6.51% level reached on Oct. 20. U.K. mortgage costs, which had staged a recovery in the months following the "mini-budget" crisis, have soared recently following 13 consecutive rate hikes by the Bank of England. Most recently, the central bank increased rates by 50 basis points to 5%, a bigger increase than many had expected. Renters, too, are likely to see their payments increase as buy-to-let landlords pass on higher mortgage repayments.
Persons: Kwasi, Moneyfacts, Andrew Bailey Organizations: Financial, Authority, London Borough, Finance, Bank of England Locations: Enfield, England, London
FALLING STARWhen Odey set up Odey Asset Management, it was in the afterglow of then British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's deregulation of the stock market in London's 1986 "Big Bang". Privately educated at the elite Harrow school, Odey left Oxford University and began his career in traditional asset management before launching Odey Asset Management. But fund performance at Odey Asset Management has been a rollercoaster, with Odey renowned for taking risks. He liked to say leverage was like a drug - once you experienced it, you could never live without it, one hedge fund manager said. Lawmakers on Britain's Treasury Select Committee have written to the FCA to question the regulator's supervision of Odey Asset Management and Odey.
Persons: Crispin Odey, Odey, Banks, Robert Sears, CIOs, Don Steinbrugge, Margaret Thatcher's, Egerton Capital, Marshall Wace, Winton, Kwasi Kwarteng, Maiya Keidan, Nell Mackenzie, Iain Withers, Lawrence White, Dhara Ranasinghe, Elisa Martinuzzi, Alex Richardson Organizations: TORONTO, Reuters, Odey Asset Management, FT, Tortoise Media, Odey, Management, Britain's Financial, Authority, Generation Partners, Odey's, HSBC, Inc, Wall Street, Agecroft Partners, British, Harrow, Oxford University, Conservative Party, Barclays, Peugeot, Hong Kong, Lawmakers, FCA, Thomson Locations: LONDON, City, London, Toronto
Here are some key facts about Odey, London-based OAM, the allegations, and their fallout:WHO ARE CRISPIN ODEY AND ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT? Odey, 64, founded the asset management firm which bears his name in 1991. HOW BIG IS ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT? Schroders and Canada Life last week moved to cut back their dealings with asset management businesses with links to Odey. It is looking increasingly unlikely, even though larger funds such as Odey Asset Management Group are made up of many funds with different trading strategies.
Persons: Crispin Odey, OAM, Odey, CRISPIN ODEY, Kwasi Kwarteng, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, James Hanbury, Hanbury, Peter Martin, Carolina Mandl, Nell Mackenzie, Elisa Martinuzzi, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alexander Smith Organizations: Odey, Management, Reuters, Financial Times, WHO, Asset Management, Conservative Party, Securities and Exchange Commission, Financial, Authority, Lawmakers, JPMorgan, UBS, CAN, Odey Asset Management, Inc, Carolina, Thomson Locations: London, Schroders, New York
June 10 (Reuters) - Crispin Odey, one of Britain's best-known hedge fund managers, is leaving Odey Asset Management following allegations of sexual misconduct, the firm's executive committee said on Saturday. Here are some key facts about Odey, his London-based hedge fund, the allegations, and the fallout:WHO IS CRISPIN ODEY AND ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT? Odey Asset Management (OAM) is known for highly leveraged bets trading global equities, debt, currencies and commodities. Besides Odey Asset Management, the group also runs Brook Asset Management and Odey Wealth, a private wealth unit. Brook Asset Management and Odey Wealth, both part of the Odey Group, are run by different portfolio managers such as James Hanbury and Peter Martin, the chief executive of Odey Asset Management.
Persons: Crispin Odey, Odey, CRISPIN ODEY, Kwasi Kwarteng, ODEY, James Hanbury, Peter Martin, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Schroders, Carolina Mandl, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Odey, Management, Financial Times, WHO, Conservative Party, Odey Asset Management, Asset Management, Securities and Exchange Commission, Reuters, Financial, Authority, Inc, JPMorgan, UBS, Carolina, Thomson Locations: London, New York
LONDON, May 16 (Reuters) - Britons face the biggest tax-raising drive since the start of former prime minister Margaret Thatcher's term of office in the coming years as more people are pushed into paying the top rate of income tax, a leading think tank said on Tuesday. Britons pay income tax at a rate of 20% on income over 12,570 pounds ($15,865) a year and 40% on income over 50,270 pounds with a higher rate beyond that. Isaac Delestre, an IFS research economist, said inflation's recent surge was pushing up nominal earnings of many workers and dragging them into the higher tax rate bracket. The Conservative Party pledged not to increase income tax rates in its 2019 election manifesto. "A third of the expected record fall in household incomes this year is likely to be a result of this tax rise," the IFS said.
UK house prices stabilise after mini-budget fall: Nationwide
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - British house prices rose by 0.5% in April after falling for the seven previous months, mortgage lender Nationwide said, adding to signs that the property market has stabilised after last year's "mini-budget" upheaval. The average house price remained 4% below its peak in August last year which was before former Prime Minister Liz Truss and her finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng briefly sent debt markets into a tailspin by announcing a plan for big, unfunded tax cuts. Compared with April last year, the average house price was down by 2.7%, Nationwide said. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected prices to fall by 0.4% in month-on-month terms and by an annual 3.6%. Reporting by William Schomberg; editing by Sarah YoungOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Chief Executive Jason Honeyman told Reuters the company started hastening construction in its social housing programme in October after a demand slump. Honeyman said homes built in the programme would make up more than quarter of overall output in the fiscal year ending on July 31. Bellway, which builds everything from one-bedroom apartments to six-bedroom family homes and luxury penthouses, said there was a moderate improvement in bookings since January. Bellway shares edged up about 1% in morning trade. ($1=0.8121 pounds)Reporting by Aby Jose Koilparambil in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-PhillipsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) - Britain's opposition Labour Party vowed on Thursday to reverse the government's planned pension changes, saying they were a giveaway to the top 1% of pension savers at a time when many households are being hit by tax increases and high inflation. "The budget was a chance for the government to unlock Britain's promise and potential," Rachel Reeves, Labour's would-be finance minister said. Some long-serving senior doctors have cut back their hours or retired early as they near the lifetime pension limit, adding to strains in the National Health Service (NHS). The focus on tax support for the wealthiest had echoes of the criticism that met the "mini-budget" of former Prime Minister Liz Truss and her finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng in September. They were later forced to reverse their plan to scrap the top rate of income tax for Britain's highest earners.
London CNN —The last time a British finance minister unveiled a “budget for growth,” UK financial markets crashed and mortgage rates shot up, threatening to tip an already weak economy into a deep recession. But he will deliver his budget against essentially the same gloomy backdrop: the UK economy is stuck in the doldrums. John Springford, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, estimates that Brexit had cost the UK economy 5.5% of GDP by June 2022. SVB could depress UK bank lendingAnother factor that could weigh on the UK economy in the near term: Silicon Valley Bank. “It is likely that UK financial conditions will remain tighter (or potentially significantly tighter) over coming months than they would have been without the US banking troubles,” Pickering said in a research note Monday.
As a former health minister, Hunt is familiar with the Hippocratic Oath’s principle of “first, do no harm.” That credo didn’t resonate with former finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that borrowing in the current financial year is running 31 billion pounds below the November forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog. A further 6 billion pounds will freeze fuel duties, avoiding a 23% rise from April. In November, the OBR forecast that Downing Street would meet that goal with just 9.2 billion pounds to spare. That would still cost 11 billion pounds a year but would boost investment by 5% in the long run.
Take Five: A macro-packed punch for markets
  + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
1/ THE PRICE IS RIGHTU.S. inflation data have been pivot points for markets and Tuesday's report will likely be consequential as investors gauge whether the Federal Reserve will return to the jumbo-sized rate hikes that shook markets last year. The European Central Bank has raised rates by 3 percentage points since July to 2.5% and looks set for another half-point increase on Thursday. Austria's central bank chief Robert Holzmann wants half-point rises at each of the next four meetings. Riskier, more fragile emerging markets, especially those with twin deficits, could feel the heaviest punch if the Fed goes all the way to 6%. Emerging markets countries hiking (+) or cutting (-) their policy ratesCompiled by Amanda Cooper; Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Kripa Jayaram and Vincent Flasseur; Edited by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
UK house prices post sharpest fall since 2012
  + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
London CNN —UK house prices last month saw their biggest annual decline since November 2012, in the latest indication of the lasting pain that former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s ill-fated “mini” budget inflicted on Britain’s property market. The average price of a house fell 1.1% to £257,406 ($310,000) in February compared with a year earlier, taking UK house price growth into negative territory for the first time since June 2020, lender Nationwide said Wednesday. House prices have now declined for six months in a row and are 3.7% below their August 2022 peak, according to Nationwide’s index based on purchases involving a mortgage. “The economy has largely moved on from the mini budget, but the hangover for the UK housing market is more prolonged. Mortgage rates have started to fall but recent stronger-than-expected UK economic data could lead the Bank of England to keep interest rates higher for longer, causing the downward drift in mortgage rates to “stall,” he told CNN.
British Prime Minister Liz Truss announces her resignation, outside Number 10 Downing Street, London, Britain October 20, 2022. Henry Nicholls | ReutersLONDON — Former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss is blaming a "powerful economic establishment" for bringing her chaotic 44-day tenure to an end last year. Truss was elected leader of the Conservative Party in September, defeating her eventual successor Rishi Sunak, after garnering 81,326 votes from party members following the ousting of Boris Johnson. She was acting as if winning a majority of the Conservative Party membership gave her economic credibility, and it most clearly doesn't." Current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government vowed to restore this credibility upon taking over in October, and quickly reversed Truss' entire economic agenda.
Optimism in the U.K. economy has been in "short supply" in recent months, Hunt said. The Finance Minister stressed the importance of making the U.K. a place where companies want to do business. Hunt's speech comes as the U.K. inflation rate most recently reached 10.5% in December, well above the Bank of England's target of 2%. U.S. Inflation Reduction Act concernsJeremy Hunt said the U.K. government has "some concerns" about the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act in a Q&A session that followed his speech Friday. Absolutely not," Hunt added.
LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Britain must review its refusal to grant development consent for a high-voltage undersea power cable project linking Britain and France, London's High Court ruled on Tuesday. A government spokesperson said: "The UK Government is disappointed by the outcome but we will be considering the judgment carefully before deciding next steps." After requesting further information, Kwarteng last year decided that Aquind had given "insufficient consideration" to an alternative connection point in Dorset in southern England, which Aquind had previously rejected. However, the High Court ruled that it was "irrational" for Kwarteng to refuse Aquind’s application without making further inquiries about the feasibility of the location in Dorset. Reporting by Sam Tobin and Elizabeth Piper, editing by William James, Ed Osmond and Angus MacSwanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Demand for rural homes in Britain dropped as the pandemic trend of relocating to the countryside faded, according to real estate website Zoopla. In the wider Lake District national park area, demand dipped 5% compared to the same period, and in mid-Wales it fell 10%. In April 2020, during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, 46.6% of people in employment did some work from home, according to the Office for National Statistics. The U.K. mortgage market fell into crisis in September following drastic policy shifts by then-Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. Some market watchers are now predicting a major downturn in the U.K. property market as a result of the country's weakened economy and sticky high inflation rate.
The U.K. government on Friday announced extensive reforms to financial regulation that it says will overhaul EU laws that "choke off growth." Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said he wanted to ensure the U.K.'s status as "one of the most open, dynamic and competitive financial services hubs in the world." "And we will go further – delivering reform of burdensome EU laws that choke off growth in other industries such as digital technology and life sciences." Researchers at the London School of Economics said earlier this year that financial services will be among the sectors worst hit by Brexit. Another proposed reform would see regulators' remit increased to include facilitating the competitiveness of the U.K. economy, particularly the financial services sector.
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