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☆ India July inflation likely breached RBI's 6% upper tolerance level - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

That will hit the vast majority of India's population who make up the poor and middle classes. The Aug. 3-8 Reuters poll of 53 economists predicted the consumer price index (CPI) (INCPIY=ECI) rose at an annual rate of 6.40% in July. "There are no signs of any sequential moderation in food prices in August," noted Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays. If the poll median is correct, the current surge in inflation was likely to outstrip the 5.2% the RBI projects for this quarter. The survey also showed wholesale price inflation (INWPI=ECI), the change in producer prices, likely fell 2.70% year-on-year in July, after a 4.12% decline in June.

Persons: Rahul Bajoria, Kunal Kundu, Milounee Purohit, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Reserve Bank of India's, Barclays, Societe Generale, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India

☆ Instant View: Here’s what experts think of India's surprise rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50% in a unanimous decision. With the likely softening of CPI to the low- to mid-5% levels in the coming month, the current repo rate of 6.5% implies that India’s real policy rate will hover around 1% during 2023-24, while maintaining a policy rate differential of about 1.5% with the US. Room for additional rate hikes has been retained with MPC’s policy stance continuing to remain unchanged at ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We believe the bar for future rate hikes has increased, especially since near-term prints of CPI will be sub 6%. Scope for further hikes is limited given our growth-inflation outlook and impact of the past rate hikes on the same.

☆ India Budget 2023: Here's what the experts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +13 min

"This budget, therefore, has rewritten the rules for financilisation of savings in India, which will induce expenditures rather incentivise savings. LAKSHMI IYER, CEO-INVESTMENT ADVISORY, KOTAK INVESTMENT ADVISORS LTD"India budget 2023 has offered a multi-dimensional view. The 3 Cs which stand out are - Capex increase - consumption boost - capital gains tax status quo. Additionally, the budget has provided significant direct tax benefits to individuals which will help increase disposable income and support spending. The budget keeps in mind the needs of future India while focusing on Artificial Intelligence and machine learning.

☆ India's economic growth outlook stagnates, stuck in lower gear
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

It was expected to decelerate further to 4.4% in the fourth quarter, according to an Oct. 13-19 Reuters poll. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe median expectation was for 6.9% growth in the 2022-23 fiscal year, slightly above International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank projections of 6.8%. While those figures were only trimmed from the previous poll medians, a deteriorating global economic outlook suggests there may be further downgrades in coming months. "This, we believe, will result in the RBI having to shift its focus toward supporting growth and away from anchoring inflation expectations by engineering a growth slowdown." The poll showed the RBI taking a softer approach with rates.

☆ Bank Indonesia playing catch-up, to deliver another 50 bps rate hike on Thursday: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Relatively lower inflation allowed the central bank to hold off with raising rates until August. But in September inflation reached 5.95%, the highest since 2015, and will likely push the central bank to continue tightening. BI, until recently one of the world's last dovish central banks, followed a modest quarter-point rate rise in this cycle with a surprisingly aggressive 50 basis point rise in September. The weaker rupiah , down more than 8% so far this year, has prompted economists to bring forward their rate hike expectations. Reuters Poll: Indonesia inflation and monetary policy outlookThe poll showed inflation was expected to average 4.6% this year and inch down to 4.5% in 2023, a massive upgrade from 3.9% and 3.5% predicted in July.

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