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☆ Structural reform in China 'is not going to come,' analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStructural reform in China 'is not going to come,' analyst saysArthur Kroeber, founding partner and head of research at Gavekal, says China is "doing just enough to support growth at roughly the current level or somewhere higher."

Persons: Arthur Kroeber Locations: China

☆ China is trying to give investors the one major thing missing from its economic stimulus blitz
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China is expected to announce extra fiscal policy support on Saturday. The lack of consumer support in China's last stimulus package disappointed investors. According to a Bloomberg survey, most analysts expect authorities to pledge $283 billion of fiscal stimulus at Saturday's highly anticipated press conference. Chinese authorities followed up by announcing Saturday's press conference, which promised to introduce new measures centered on fiscal policy. Some analysts remain less sure about what fiscal stimulus will actually achieve on its own, pointing out that Beijing needs to pursue structural reforms to revive consumer confidence.

Persons: —, Lan Fo'an, China's, Mark Williams, Stephen Roach, Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Finance, Analysts, CSI, Reform Commission, Capital Economics, Asia, Financial Times Locations: China, Beijing, Yale

☆ Global recession risks: The variable is the United States, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGlobal recession risks: The variable is the United States, analyst saysArthur Kroeber, founding partner and head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics, says "the world has not been principally relying on China as a source of demand."

Persons: Arthur Kroeber, Dragonomics Locations: United States, China

☆ Goldman Sachs says these China stocks can win even if there's a repeat of Japan's lost decades
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Goldman Sachs calls the China story today one of "rebalancing," and has picked 40 buy-rated stocks to play the theme. They predict certain consumer names, artificial intelligence companies and rising global players will be among the Chinese stocks that can do well. December data and fourth-quarter GDP due out late Tuesday New York time may give more clues on China's economic trajectory — and whether policymakers need to act. For China's economic outlook, comparisons to Japan may ultimately be more academic as the debate has become more about the extent to which national security has replaced economic growth as the priority. "Very often I'm asked the question, will China ignore development as it talks more about security?"

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Japan's, Kinger Lau, Morgan, Robin Xing, Goldman, Lau, Li Qiang, Liu, SICC, Arthur Kroeber, Dragonomics, Liu Jianchao, Michael Bloom Organizations: Beijing, China Equity, China New Economy Summit, China, New, Invesco, Central Commission, Financial, Economic Affairs, Laboratories, U.S . Food, Drug Administration, U.S, StarPower Semiconductor, Wire China, Communist Party's, Foreign Locations: China, Japan, Hong Kong, Beijing, New York, Davos, Shanghai, U.S, Shenzhen, Europe

The one unanimous conclusion they came to was that Beijing wants a greater state presence in these sectors. Kroeber says the crackdowns are about "defining what the state does, what the private sector does, and creating a more limited sandbox for the private sector to play in." That has left investors now picking the state over the private sector. The CCP's July Politburo meeting reinforced the message, with the top policymaking body pledging to put a floor under the property sector, help indebted local governments heal and boost consumer demand. Huang Yan, general manager of private fund manager Shanghai QiuYang Capital Co, said Beijing will crack down on any sector seen as increasing people's economic burden.

Persons: Aly, Jack, Arthur Kroeber, Kroeber, Zhang Kexing, Xi Jinping, Mao Zedong's, Thomas Masi, Masi, Xi, Nuno Fernandes, Fernandes, Huang Yan, Huang, Kumar Pandit, Pandit, Jason Xue, Ankur Banerjee, Vidya Ranganathan, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Ant Group, CSI Medical Services, Beijing Tongrentang, HK, Poly, Beijing Gelei Asset Management, Communist Party's, Investors, Mao Zedong's Marxist, Boston, K Investment Management, Shanghai QiuYang, Somerset Capital, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Rights SHANGHAI, HONGKONG, Beijing, New York, London, Singapore

REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoHONG KONG/NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Chinese fears of a spillover from missed payments on some shadow banking linked trust products and worsening consumer sentiment are expected to hasten a policy response to revive the country's cash-starved property sector. Zhongrong International Trust Co, which traditionally had sizable real estate exposure, has recently missed repayments on some investment products, fuelling contagion fears. 'CONTAGION'The trust sector had been a major fundraising channel for property developers seeking rapid expansion. The outstanding value of trust products invested in the property sector was 1.2 trillion yuan as of end-2022, down about 30% year-on-year. Still, exposure to the real estate sector varies from different trust firms.

Persons: Aly, Yan Wang, Nomura, Arthur Kroeber, Kamil Dimmich, Phillip Wool, Wool, Vidya Ranganathan, Laura Matthews, David Randall, Ziyi Tang, Sumeet Chatterjee, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, HONG KONG, Trust Co, Barclays, International Trust, South Capital LLP, China Equity ETF, Beijing, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Zhongrong, Beijing, New York, London, Singapore, Summer Zhen

☆ It's clear that China's unlikely to roll out a 'massive stimulus,' analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's clear that China's unlikely to roll out a 'massive stimulus,' analyst saysArthur Kroeber, founding partner and head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics, says the "massive stimulus that we've been used to in China over the last 15 years every time they got a slowdown — I don't think we're going to get that again."

Persons: Arthur Kroeber, Dragonomics Locations: China

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