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Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. The yen eased to 149.83 per dollar, its weakest in more than 11 months, moving ever closer to the 150 mark that some traders believe could prompt intervention by Tokyo to support the currency. "If the yen breaks 150 per dollar, which I think is likely, and verbal intervention is not followed by action then we could see dollar-yen at 155." In the broader currency market, sterling was last 0.4% lower at $1.2158, having slid nearly 4% against the dollar in the third quarter. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar slid 0.6% to $0.6395, while the New Zealand dollar edged 0.4% lower to $0.5972, as traders looked ahead to rate decisions from their respective central banks this week.

Persons: Florence Lo, Dane Cekov, Shunichi Suzuki, Jarrod Kerr, Nordea's Cekov, bitcoin, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Simon Cameron, Moore, Emelia, Alex Richardson Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Japan's, Finance, Congress, Democratic, Australian, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Britain, U.S

☆ Buoyant dollar pushes fragile yen to within striking distance of 150
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Photo taken on April 20, 2022 shows the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes in Tokyo, Japan. The dollar kicked off the last quarter of the year on the front foot on Monday as the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. rates provided solid support, pushing the yen to an 11-month low. Sterling was last 0.13% lower at $1.2188, having similarly slid nearly 4% against the dollar in the third quarter. "This puts the 1 November FOMC meeting back on the table as a potential venue for a further 25-basis-point rate hike." Elsewhere, the Australian dollar fell 0.07% to $0.64305, while the kiwi edged 0.1% lower to $0.59925.

Persons: Olivier d'Assier, Jarrod Kerr, Sterling, Kiwibank's Kerr, Chris Weston Organizations: U.S, Congress, Democratic, U.S . Labor Department, CPI Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Australia, China

☆ Factbox-New Zealand Voters' Top Issues in October General Election
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Sept. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +5 min

Chris Hipkins, who took the prime minister's post in January after Jacinda Ardern stepped down, has nudged his Labour Party towards the centre, focusing on what he terms "bread and butter issues". The opposition National Party has blamed Labour for rising costs and is promising, if elected, to cut taxes and bring inflation under control. Given New Zealand's ever-increasing building costs, poor housing stock and overcrowding, however, supply continues to fall short of demand. The National Party has proposed unlocking more land for housing, providing incentives for councils to build more houses and creating new infrastructure financing tools. The National Party says it will encourage trade and investment, increase the skilled labour force and cut red tape.

Persons: Chris Hipkins, Jacinda Ardern, Hipkins, Lucy Craymer, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Reuters, New Zealanders, Labour, National, Labour Party, National Party, Zealand's Labour Locations: New, New Zealand, China, Pacific, Solomon, South Pacific, Britain

☆ Dollar slips as Fed's rate-hike cycle seen ending
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A foreign currency dealer counts US dollar notes at a currency market in Karachi on July 19, 2022. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell left the door open to another hike in September, traders were unconvinced, sending the U.S. dollar broadly lower. Sterling steadied at $1.2935, having eked out a slight gain against the dollar in the previous session. A dovish pivot from the Fed will likely exert a downward pressure on the U.S. dollar in the medium term." BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda was quoted as saying at a key government meeting on Wednesday that the central bank will maintain accommodative monetary conditions for companies.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Sterling steadied, Emin Hajiyev, Nadia Gharbi, Kazuo Ueda, Jarrod Kerr Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S, Insight Investment, ECB, Pictet Wealth Management, Bank, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, Communist Party Locations: Karachi, U.S

☆ New Zealand central bank to hold rates in July and for rest of 2023: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is forecast to weaken further as the impact of 525 basis points of RBNZ rate rises becomes more visible. All 25 economists polled by Reuters July 3-6 expected the RBNZ to hold the official cash rate (OCR) (NZINTR=ECI) at 5.50% on July 12. It would be the first time the RBNZ has not raised rates at a policy meeting in nearly two years. The central bank raised rates in May but signalled it was done tightening. Over 90% of economists pollled, 23 of 24, did not predict any changes to rates this quarter.

Persons: Jarrod Kerr, pollled, Nick Tuffley, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Reuters, ANZ, ASB, Bank of New, Kiwibank, Westpac, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Bank of New Zealand

☆ New Zealand central bank to hold rates in July and for rest of 2023, Reuters poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is forecast to weaken further as the impact of 525 basis points of RBNZ rate rises becomes more visible. All 25 economists polled by Reuters July 3-6 expected the RBNZ to hold the official cash rate (OCR) (NZINTR=ECI) at 5.50% on July 12. It would be the first time the RBNZ has not raised rates at a policy meeting in nearly two years. The central bank raised rates last month but signalled it was done tightening. Over 90% of economists pollled, 23 of 24, did not predict any changes to rates this quarter.

☆ Dollar finds footing on housing data as yuan falters
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies U.S. housing starts surge; dollar drifts higherTraders await UK CPI and Powell testimonySINGAPORE, June 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was firm in Asia trade on Wednesday following surprisingly strong U.S. housing data, while the yuan and Aussie dollar nursed losses and focus turned to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's appearance before Congress later in the day. The yen was also firm at 140.50 per dollar ahead of an appearance by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday. The Aussie and yuan were Tuesday's largest losers and were in no mood for a bounce early on Wednesday. The yuan fell about 0.3% overnight and in offshore trade early on Wednesday the currency was pinned at 7.1826 per dollar, near a seven-month low. It is under pressure after the central bank flagged it was finished with hikes, while data showed the economy in recession.

Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell's, they'd, Kazuo Ueda, Li Qiang, Tuesday's, Joe Capurso, steadying, Mieneke Perniskie, Sterling, Daniela Hathorn, Bitcoin, Citadel Securites, Charles Schwab, Tom Westbrook Organizations: CPI, U.S, Federal, Traders, Bank of Japan, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Bank of England, Fidelity, Citadel, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, China, Europe, Kiwibank, Wellington

☆ New Zealand's economy likely in recession as rate hikes take hold
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WELLINGTON, June 13 (Reuters) - The New Zealand central bank’s aggressive hiking of the cash rate likely pushed the country into a technical recession in the first quarter, a Reuters poll found, giving traction to the idea the cash rate may have peaked. This would mean the country moved into a technical recession - two consecutive quarters of negative growth - after the economy contracted by 0.6% in the fourth quarter. New Zealand's central bank last month signalled it was done tightening after raising rates by 25 basis points to the highest in more than 14-years at 5.5%, ending its most aggressive hiking cycle since 1999. Yet a handful of economists think the boost to the economy from historically high migration and the return of tourism might force the central bank to do more. He said he expects the next cash rate move to be a cut.

Persons: ”, Jarrod Kerr, Cyclone Gabrielle, Brad Olsen, Lucy Craymer, Lincoln Organizations: Gross, Reserve Bank of New, “, Treasury, Reserve Bank, Zealand, Thomson Locations: Zealand, Auckland

☆ Dollar eases after jump in U.S. jobless claims; Fed in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An employee deals with U.S. one-hundred dollar banknotes at a bank on June 16, 2022 in Hai an, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province of China. The dollar retreated on Friday, dragged down by lower U.S. Treasury yields after a spike in weekly jobless claims raised hopes that a peak in U.S. interest rates was near, as the focus turned to the upcoming week packed with central bank meetings. Against the Japanese yen , the greenback dipped to a one-week low of 138.765, tracking a slide in U.S. Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield last stood at 3.7317%, after falling 7 basis points on Thursday. So that'll show up in payrolls numbers and jobless claims and these sorts of numbers," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank.

Persons: Jarrod Kerr, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Mohammed Elmi Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federated Hermes Locations: Hai, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province, China, Asia, U.S, Kiwibank, United States

☆ Dollar retreats on jump in US jobless claims; eyes on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The two-year yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, steadied at 4.5210%. So that'll show up in payrolls numbers and jobless claims and these sorts of numbers," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. The Fed takes centre stage, with money markets leaning toward a pause, though have priced in a 25% chance that the U.S. central bank delivers a 25bp rate hike. "A slowing U.S. economy gives the Fed room to pause after 500bp of consecutive interest rate rises," said Guillermo Felices, global investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income. The Canadian dollar last bought C$1.3365, not far from its one-month high of C$1.3321 hit on Wednesday, while the Aussie similarly stood near a roughly one-month peak at $0.6711.

Persons: Jarrod Kerr, Guillermo Felices, Thursday's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Fed, Reuters, ECB, Canadian, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, Kiwibank

☆ Investors relieved after US House votes to suspend debt ceiling
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Asian markets were trading higher when the bill cleared the house and held their gains. Treasury yields rose marginally. The bill would suspend the federal government's borrowing limit until 2025, allowing the Treasury to sell debt to pay its obligations. Two-year Treasury yields rose 2.7 basis points to 4.417%, while currency markets were broadly steady. Debt ceiling concerns periodically weighed on stock markets over the last week, although most investors expected an 11th-hour agreement.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Joe Biden's, Ray Attrill, Biden, Brad McMillan, Jarrod Kerr, Caroline Valetkevitch, Kevin Buckland, Rae Wee, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio, Lincoln Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Investors, U.S . House, Senate, Republican, National Australia Bank, Treasury, White, Commonwealth Financial Network, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Tokyo, Singapore

☆ Investors relieved after US House votes to suspend debt ceiling; focus turns to Senate
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Persons: Joe Biden's, Ray Attrill, Biden, Brad McMillan, Jarrod Kerr, Caroline Valetkevitch, Kevin Buckland, Rae Wee, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio, Lincoln Organizations: Investors, U.S . House, Senate, Republican, National Australia Bank, Treasury, White, Commonwealth Financial Network, Thomson Locations: U.S, Tokyo, Singapore

☆ NZ central bank to hike by 25 bps, risk grows of higher peak for rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Yet, while back in February the RBNZ forecast the cash rate would peak at 5.5%, a growing minority of economists expect a further tightening is possible in July. Four economists in a Reuters poll of 21 economists now expect the cash rate to reach 5.75 or higher. Fourteen expect rates to hold at 5.50% next quarter. After the April surprise, markets remain wary of another outsized 50-basis-point rate hike this week. The money market is now pricing 39 basis points of hikes, up from 20 basis points last week.

The narrowing rate differentials between the U.S. and Europe, as markets price in more European rate increases than in the U.S., has been boosting European currencies in recent months. The Fed has guided markets away from the possibility of rate cuts this year, though markets are pricing them in nonetheless. The European Central Bank announces its rate decision later in the day. "So I think central banks, including the Fed, are at or very near the peak in their cash rates." The Norwegian crown took a short trip after Norway's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected.

☆ Dollar falls after Fed signals pause; banking woes dent confidence
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Additional tightening may be needed ... but the FOMC does not appear to be pre-committing to another rate hike on June 14." The U.S. dollar index was last 0.12% lower at 101.11, after dropping more than 0.6% in the previous session. "There are a lot of concerns in the U.S. around the banking sector and the crunch on credit. "So I think central banks, including the Fed, are at or very near the peak in their cash rates." The European Central Bank (ECB) comes under the spotlight next, where expectations are for ECB policymakers to raise interest rates for the seventh meeting in a row later on Thursday.

☆ RBNZ stuns market with bigger rate rise, more tightening seen
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The central bank's hawkish stance saw a number of economists revise their expectations, predicting it would increase the official cash rate (NZINTR=ECI) (OCR) to a peak of 5.5%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said the committee needed to increase the cash rate if it is to return inflation to its target of 1%-3%. Wednesday's decision comes in sharp contrast with the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to hold the cash rate steady. Two-year swaps jumped 15 bps to 5.11%, still well below the March peak of 5.53%, while the 90-day bank bill rate implied the official cash rate would peak at 5.5%. Kiwibank along with ANZ, Bank of New Zealand, ASB Bank and Capital Economics now expect the cash rate to peak at 5.5%.

The yen was last down about 0.15% at 136.36 after a knee-jerk plunge of as much as 0.62% after the BOJ kept policy unchanged in Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's final policy meeting before retirement. Despite some volatility against the yen, the U.S. dollar was mostly flat on Friday. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was little changed at 105.28 but remained on track for a weekly gain of 0.73%. The focus now turns to the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report later on Friday, the next major data point that could offer clues on the Fed's next steps for monetary policy. According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 205,000 jobs in February after surging by 517,000 in January.

☆ Dollar loses steam after jobless claims data, while Kuroda takes center stage in Asia
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

An employee deals with U.S. one-hundred dollar banknotes at a bank on June 16, 2022 in Hai an, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province of China. The yen held steady in early Asia trade, and was last 0.2% higher at 135.89 per dollar, retreating from a nearly three-month low hit earlier in the week. Nonetheless, the jump in jobless claims was enough to cause traders to unwind some bets that U.S. rates would rise much higher than previously expected. The Fed funds rate is projected to peak just below 5.5% by July. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.12% to 105.12 but remained on track for a weekly gain of nearly 0.6%.

☆ Disasters lower outlook for New Zealand interest rate rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Then on Feb. 12 to 15 a cyclone hit the North Island, which includes Auckland. When Cyclone Gabrielle hit, picking had just begun on pip-fruit farms, whose production is worth about NZ$1 billion a year. That would normally be a reason for a central bank to lift interest rates further, but some economists expect the RBNZ to look past the sudden rise as being temporary. Still, Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr said the central bank should pause hikes until the effect of the cyclone can be understood. After the Christchurch earthquake, the central bank cut its policy rate due to concerns about the economy.

☆ Dollar climbs on higher rate expectations, Aussie slides on jobs shock
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Overall, some weakness indicated by the report ... probably caused markets to pare back some of the interest rate rises pencilled in for the RBA rate hikes." Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in January after two straight monthly declines, driven by purchases of motor vehicles and other goods, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Wednesday. There's very strong labour market data coming through, and the consumers are well supported," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. The retail sales data came just a day after U.S. figures showed inflation slowing but still sticky. This added to signs that further hefty BoE interest rate hikes are unlikely.

☆ RBNZ to hike rates 50bps on Feb. 22, another 50bps due by mid-year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The RBNZ has already raised rates by a total of 400 basis points since October 2021. The remaining five economists expected a second successive 75-basis point move at the Feb. 22 policy meeting. But nearly half of respondents, 45%, predicted a lower peak rate. Inflation was expected to fall to 5.1% this year and 2.6% in 2024, a Reuters poll showed last month. A recent RBNZ survey expected price pressures to slow to 3.30% in the next two years.

☆ Dollar wobbles near eight-month low ahead of c.bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The dollar held close to an eight-month low against its peers on Thursday, as a gloomy U.S. corporate earnings season stoked recession fears and as traders stayed on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week. Trading was thin, with Australia out for a holiday and some parts of Asia still away for the Lunar New Year. "There are now signs the U.S. economy may be slowing in a more meaningful manner," said economists at Wells Fargo. Ahead of that, the Commerce Department is due to release advance estimates of U.S. fourth-quarter gross domestic product later on Thursday. Meanwhile, markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), which will also meet next week, to deliver 50 bps rate hikes.

☆ Dollar near eight-month low ahead of c.bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The dollar lolled near an eight-month low against its peers on Thursday, as a gloomy U.S. corporate earnings season stoked recession fears and as traders stayed on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, last stood at 101.53, languishing near last week's eight-month trough of 101.51. "There are now signs the U.S. economy may be slowing in a more meaningful manner," said economists at Wells Fargo. "With the Fed no longer leading the charge on interest rate hikes and U.S. economic trends set to worsen, we now believe the U.S. dollar has entered a period of cyclical depreciation against most foreign currencies." Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), who will also meet next week, to deliver 50 bp rate hikes.

☆ Dollar near eight-month low ahead of central bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar kept trade-sensitive currencies pinned near multi-year lows on Monday and the euro was under pressure as investors sought safety due to worries about slowing global growth. The dollar lolled near an eight-month low against its peers on Thursday, as a gloomy U.S. corporate earnings season stoked recession fears and as traders stayed on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, last stood at 101.53, languishing near last week's eight-month trough of 101.51. Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), who will also meet next week, to deliver 50-bp rate hikes. Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar last traded at 1.3393 per dollar, after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised its key interest rate to 4.5% but became the first major central bank fighting global inflation to say it would likely hold off on further increases for now.

☆ Aussie jumps, kiwi slumps after inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar jumped to a more than five-month high on Wednesday after inflation data came in hotter than expected, while the kiwi slipped after New Zealand's fourth-quarter inflation rose less than what its central bank had forecast. The euro held near a nine-month peak against the dollar, as traders weighed a rosier growth outlook for the euro zone sagainst growing signs of a looming U.S. recession. Meanwhile, the kiwi slid nearly 0.6% to $0.6469, after New Zealand's annual inflation of 7.2% in the fourth quarter came in below its central bank's 7.5% forecast. Data on Tuesday showed that euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, indicating the downturn in the bloc may not be as deep as feared. Policymakers are committed to taming inflation, but are split on the size of moves beyond February's likely half-a-percentage point increase.

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