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☆ Appreciation of the yen could slow the pace of BOJ rate hike, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAppreciation of the yen could slow the pace of BOJ rate hike, economist saysTakahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, expects that the Bank of Japan will hike rates in January 2025.

Persons: Takahide Kiuchi Organizations: Nomura Research Institute, Bank of Locations: Bank of Japan

☆ BOJ's hawkish rhetoric signals chance negative rates may end soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Having watered down YCC at its last policy meeting, the BOJ's next goal is to pull short-term rates out of negative territory early next year, sources have told Reuters. That leaves open the chance of an policy change in January, when the BOJ next reviews its quarterly price forecasts. Most expect an end to both YCC and negative rates. "It's an awfully big upgrade and shows how the BOJ had made estimates that were way too low," said former BOJ top economist Hideo Hayakawa, who expects negative rates to end in April. Even if it ends negative rates, nominal short-term borrowing costs will remain well below levels that neither stimulate nor cool the economy - estimated by analysts to stand somewhere near 2%.

Persons: Issei Kato, Ueda, Kazuo Ueda's, Haruhiko Kuroda, Kuroda, Mari Iwashita, Hideo Hayakawa, Takahide, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Daiwa Securities, Japan Center for Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, U.S

☆ Policymakers see darker days ahead in China as growth sputters
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Divya Chowdhury | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MUMBAI, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Policymakers expect persistently slower growth in China, perhaps even more sluggish than current consensus estimates, seeing its transition from an infrastructure- and investment-led economy to becoming consumption-driven as "difficult". "The inflation rate in China is around 0% - that means distortion of domestic demand and domestic supply," he said. This follows economic growth in 2022 recorded at one of its worst levels in nearly half a century. The Croatian central bank chief sees narrowing room for expansionary policies in China, adding, "We have to be careful." The RBNZ has already factored in "a pretty subdued period" for commodity prices within their projections, before they see them beginning to rise again, Hawkesby said.

Persons: Takahide Kiuchi, Goushi Kataoka, Boris Vujcic, Robert Holzmann, Christian Hawkesby, Hawkesby, Divya Chowdhury, Savio Shetty, Lisa Mattackal, Mehnaz Yasmin, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: Former Bank of Japan, Reuters Global Markets, European Central Bank, ECB, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, China, Europe, Croatian, Austrian, United States, Mumbai, Bengaluru

☆ Roaring Back From Pandemic, Japan’s Economy Grows by 6 Percent
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Ben Dooley | More About Ben Dooley | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Why It MattersJapan is the world’s third-largest economy, and the largest creditor by far. Covid didn’t hit Japan’s economy as hard as it did other countries. The anemic yen has been a double-edged sword for the economy, said Takahide Kiuchi, an economist at the Nomura Research Institute. “However, it could undermine consumption.”BackgroundJapan’s has long suffered from sluggish economic growth. Recent softness in China, Japan’s largest trade partner, is a particular source of worry.

Persons: didn’t, Takahide Kiuchi, ”, Japan’s, Izumi Devalier, Ms, Devalier, ” Mr, Kiuchi Organizations: Nomura Research Institute, Bank of Japan, Bank of America Locations: Japan, United States, China, Europe

☆ Insight: BOJ makes bold shift as yen risks grow too big to ignore
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

The BOJ's decision shook markets on Friday and contrasted sharply with Ueda's more cautious comments in recent months about the dangers of retreating too quickly from accommodative Kuroda-era policies. "There's also a small but probable risk of inflation overshooting in Japan, which gave the BOJ reason to act." NEW PRIORITIESThe BOJ's policy decision last week signalled to investors that it would now allow the 10-year government bond yield to move closer to 1% before it intervenes. 'BIT BY BIT'The shift in thinking gained momentum at the BOJ's June policy meeting, but not enough to turn the tide. It was a test case, or a preliminary exercise, toward future policy normalisation," said former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi.

Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda, Fumio, accommodative Kuroda, Ueda, YCC, There's, Hirokazu Matsuno, Seiji Adachi, Asahi Noguchi, Ryozo Himino, Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, Masato Kanda, Kanda, Takahide, Leika Kihara, Takaya Yamaguchi, Takahiko Wada, Kentaro Sugiyama, Yoshifumi, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, TOKYO, Bank, Ueda, Reuters, BIT, Asahi, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan

☆ Some at Bank of Japan baulked at ex-chief Kuroda's 'bazooka' stimulus, 2013 meeting minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks during a news conference after attending the Monetary Policy Meeting at BOJ headquarters in Tokyo, Japan January 18, 2023, in this photo released by Kyodo. TOKYO, July 31 (Reuters) - Some Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers baulked at former chief Haruhiko Kuroda's idea of deploying a "bazooka" massive stimulus a decade ago, unconvinced central banks had the power to jolt public perceptions, accounts of the meeting released on Monday showed. Former banker Koji Ishida said he would propose reviewing the stimulus programme if no tangible results were seen one year into its launch, the minutes showed. Since then, the BOJ has capped long-term borrowing costs at about zero and has pledged to maintain ultra-low interest rates until its 2% inflation target is sustainably met and accompanied by wage growth. After serving two, five-year terms, Kuroda stepped down from the top BOJ post in March.

Persons: Haruhiko Kuroda, baulked, Haruhiko, Shinzo Abe, Kuroda, Masaaki Shirakawa, Hiroshi Nakaso, Takahide Kiuchi, Takehiro Sato, Sato, Koji Ishida, Leika Kihara, Jamie Freed Organizations: Bank of Japan, Kyodo ., Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Kyodo . TOKYO

☆ BOJ to keep ultra-low rates, may debate fine-tuning yield cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

At the two-day meeting ending on Friday, the BOJ is expected to maintain its yield curve control (YCC) targets at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and 0% for the 10-year bond yield. With the BOJ set to keep short-term rates negative, a tweak to the yield cap or allowance band is unlikely to trigger a spike in borrowing costs that would severely hurt the economy. There is no consensus within the board on how soon the BOJ should dial back stimulus. Former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi expects the central bank to eventually modify YCC, but stand pat on Friday. "I don't think the BOJ sees an imminent need to act, as markets aren't attacking its yield cap this time."

Persons: Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, Takahide Kiuchi, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Tetsushi, Takaya Yamaguchi, Yoshifumi, Kentaro Sugiyama, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, YCC

The draft plan, which was presented at Kishida's top economic advisory panel on Wednesday, underscored the challenge for the leader, who is seen as a fiscal hawk, to strike a balance between economic growth and fiscal consolidation. The closely-watched policy framework will be approved by Kishida's cabinet this month, along with a separate action plan on his "new capitalism" agenda. "We will not abandon the flag of fiscal reform," Economy Minister Shigeyuki Goto told reporters after the panel's meeting. "There's no change to the government stance of striving to achieve a primary budget surplus in fiscal 2025," Goto added. The framework said the government will conduct a review of any progress of its fiscal reform in the fiscal year 2024 so as to create a medium-term economy and fiscal scheme.

Persons: Fumio Kishida's, Takahide Kiuchi, Shigeyuki Goto, Goto, largesse, Kishida Organizations: Nomura Research Institute, Liberal Democratic Party, LDP ₎, International Monetary Fund, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan

The U.S. debt crisis is a headache for Japan, which is this year's G7 chair and the world's biggest holder of U.S. debt. Five more countries were invited to the outreach including Brazil, India and Indonesia - but not China - although emerging nations' debt problems will feature high on the agenda. On the other hand, Tokyo is courting China to join a creditor nations' meeting it initiated to resolve Sri Lanka's debt. "The agenda of talks show how G7 is becoming increasingly politicized in nature, with an emphasis on countering China." The International Monetary Fund last month trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook and warned a severe flare-up of financial system turmoil could slash output to near recessionary levels.

☆ Kuroda departs BOJ after inflation fails to fly like 'Peter Pan'
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The 78-year-old gives his press conference at 0630GMT, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said. Kuroda was not the first BOJ chief to attempt to influence public perceptions with monetary easing. In 2015, he alluded to the Peter Pan fairy tale in explaining that to fire up inflation, the BOJ needed to have the public believe in its monetary magic with massive stimulus. When allusions to Peter Pan and spacecraft failed, the BOJ shifted to a defensive, long-term approach in 2016 with the introduction of yield curve control (YCC). "The BOJ's failure to change public expectations raises a lot of questions about the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy."

☆ Kuroda less dovish as he departs BOJ after decade of massive stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), at the central bank's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, May 27, 2021. Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), at the central bank's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, May 27, 2021. Kuroda was not the first BOJ chief to attempt to influence public perceptions with monetary easing. When allusions to Peter Pan and spacecraft failed, the BOJ shifted to a defensive, long-term approach in 2016 with the introduction of yield curve control (YCC). "The BOJ's failure to change public expectations raises a lot of questions about the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy."

☆ Analysis: New BOJ chief to slowly unwind Kuroda's policy experiment
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

In a sign he will be in no rush to shift policy, Ueda told a parliamentary confirmation hearing in February that he will "spend time and engage in thorough discussions" with BOJ board members on how to address the side-effects of prolonged easing. But a closer look at his past, more candid remarks as a private-sector economist, and as a BOJ board member during Japan's battle with deflation in the late 1990s, offers a glimpse of his policy and communication style. Removing YCC altogether will deprive the BOJ tools to combat an unwelcome spike in bond yields, says former board member Takahide Kiuchi. Accounts of his days as BOJ board member also suggest Ueda is no fan of heavy money printing. Both in the confirmation hearings and in past remarks as board member, he has stressed the importance of using communication to enhance the effects of monetary policy.

☆ Japan unveils fresh childcare plan but funding unclear
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Under the plan, the government will take steps such as expansion of child allowances to be given without income limits. While the government has earmarked 6.1 trillion yen ($45.90 billion) for steps to arrest the declining number of children, a senior ruling party lawmaker was quoted by media as demanding an additional 8 trillion yen to fund the new measures. "A boost to child allowances alone could cost 2-3 trillion yen. "Everyone acknowledges childcare support is important given Japan's need to boost the growth rate. "Opposition parties also have no objection to boost childcare spending," said political analyst Atsuo Ito.

☆ Japan's big firms offer largest pay rises in decades
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Rengo umbrella labour group has called for a 5% pay increase. The JERC survey showed that excluding seniority-based pay, base compensation that boosts fixed labour costs accounts for just 1.08%. "We need to focus on base pay. Workers from Japan's largest group of trade unions last week struck early agreements for hefty wage hikes. Unions have historically tended to settle for relatively meagre pay hikes around 2% in recent years, as unions are inclined to cooperate with management in keeping job security rather than aggressively demanding pay rises.

☆ The SVB crisis may prompt the Bank of Japan to delay policy changes, says former board member
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"The second half of next year is [the] possible timing for when the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy," said former Bank of Japan board member Takahide Kiuchi (pictured here in 2017). Japan's central bank could delay any changes to its monetary policy in light of the turmoil that the Silicon Valley Bank crisis has triggered in financial markets, a former board member told CNBC. And any changes to its ultra-dovish stance could be delayed by as much as a year, said Nomura Research Institute economist Takahide Kiuchi, who served on the Bank of Japan's policy board from 2012 to 2017. "I think that the new governor's monetary policy could be affected by the financial market conditions if the current instability of the financial markets continue," Kiuchi said in an interview with CNBC. "The second half of next year is [the] possible timing for when the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy," he said.

☆ Japan's big firms set to offer biggest pay rises in decades
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Given that consumer inflation, at 4.1%, outpace wage hikes, pay rises of 3% or more need to continue in the coming years to sustain price stability at 2%, said Hisashi Yamada, senior economist at Japan Research Institute. "Average wage hikes that are consistent with the central bank's 2% price target are 3% which can be met this year albeit temporarily," Yamada said. Kishida's government will likely hold a joint three-party meeting with labour and management for the first time in eight years on Wednesday to ensure structural wage hikes. Workers from Japan's largest group of trade unions last week struck early agreements for hefty wage hikes. 1 automaker, and Honda, have also secured their biggest pay rises in decades.

It will also test Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's flagship "new capitalism" policy that aims to more widely distribute wealth among households by prodding firms to hike pay. World's largest car maker Toyota (7203.T) accepted a union demand for the biggest base salary growth in 20 years, while gaming giant Nintendo (7974.T) plans to lift base pay by 10%. The gain will comprise a 1.08% rise in base pay and a 1.78% increase in additional salary based on seniority, it said. Uncertainty over the sustainability of wage hikes could prod the BOJ to go slow in dialing back stimulus, some analysts say. The BOJ will probably wait until next year in doing anything radical, such as ending its bond yield control policy."

☆ Japan Inc strives to lure skilled workers as inflation, labour crunch bite
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

[1/2] A worker assembles an air drill at the factory of manufacturer Katsui Kogyo in Higashiosaka, Japan June 23, 2022. About a quarter of Japanese firms have offered inflation allowances or plan to do so, said corporate credit research firm Teikoku Databank. read moreThe private sector expects the drive to help boost productivity, meshing with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's "new capitalism" initiative on wealth distribution that put a top priority on wage hikes. "Bonuses or inflation allowances would have only a limited impact on easing the pain of cost-push inflation, as consumers tend to save one-off payouts rather than spend," added Kiuchi, now an executive economist at the Nomura Research Institute. Workers have high expectations from this year's labour talks, which they hope will counter cost-push inflation while tackling the tight labour market to help boost the economy.

☆ Analysis: Kuroda's abrupt policy tweak opens door for bigger shift next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Waiting until next year would have forced the BOJ to combat intensifying market speculation of a near-term policy shift, or act when a deep U.S. recession could hit Japan's economy, they say. "When uncertainty is so high over the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, it probably wants to have a free hand on when next to act." POLITICS KEY TRIGGERThe abrupt timing of Tuesday's move also reflects growing political pressure for the BOJ to shift away from a policy narrowly focused on its 2% inflation target, the sources say. Hours before he met Kishida, Kuroda explained in parliament a framework on how the BOJ could exit ultra-easy policy in the future. Another dovish board member, Asahi Noguchi, also said earlier this month it "won't be surprising" for the BOJ to shift monetary policy.

From Tuesday, Japan will reinstate visa-free travel to dozens of countries, ending some of world's strictest border controls to slow the spread of COVID-19. Just over half a million visitors have come to Japan so far in 2022, compared with a record 31.8 million in 2019. GHOST TOWNNarita Airport, Japan's biggest international airport some 70 kilometres from Tokyo, remains eerily quiet, with about half of its 260 shops and restaurants shuttered. Whether overseas visitors wear face masks and abide by other common infection controls in Japan is another concern. "From the start of the pandemic until now, we've had just a few foreign guests," said Tokyo innkeeper Sawa.

☆ Cât ar costa Japonia anularea Jocurilor Olimpice din această vară
▼ + stars: | 2021-05-25 | by ( Publika.Md - Aici Sunt Știrile | ) www.publika.md time to read: +2 min

Anularea Jocurilor Olimpice şi Jocurilor Paralimpice din această vară ar putea costa Japonia 13,56 miliarde euro, conform estimărilor făcute într-un studiu al Institutului de Cercetare Nomura, citat de EFE și agerpres.ro. ''Chiar dacă Jocurile vor fi anulate, pierderile economice vor fi mai mici decât cele dintr-o nouă stare de urgenţă'', a apreciat economistul şef al Institutului de Cercetare Nomura, Takahide Kiuchi, citat de agenţia Kyodo. În cazul în care competiţia olimpică se desfăşoară în absenţa publicului, beneficiile generate de Jocuri se vor ridica la 15,24, cu circa 1,35 miliarde euro mai puţin dacă la întreceri participă spectatorii japonezi. Organizatorii niponi au anunţat deja că la Jocuri nu vor putea asista spectatori străini, iar o decizie privind publicul local va fi luată în luna iunie. Conform calculelor lui Kiuchi, prima stare de urgenţă impusă în Japonia în primăvara anului 2020 a costat ţara 58,76 miliarde euro, iar a doua stare de urgenţă, între ianuarie şi martie 2021, a provocat pierderi de 57,84 miliarde euro.

Organizations: Japoniei Locations: Japonia, Japoniei, Tokyo, ţară

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