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☆ Good news for the Fed: Revised inflation data confirms last year’s progress
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

That left Fed officials bracing for the latest batch of revised CPI data, released Friday morning, which some feared could take away the inflation progress they observed last year. Instead, officials got some good news: December’s monthly inflation wasn’t as bad as initially reported, according to newly revised figures from the BLS. And for other months last year, initial data was either unchanged or revised by no more than one-tenth of a percentage point up or down. Recent data revisions have complicated the Fed’s monetary policy decisionsFed officials have been complaining about data revisions to key economic reports lately. But if revised data indicates that job gains didn’t actually slow that much in a month, cutting rates could move the inflation rate further from their target.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Friday’s, Kieran Clancy, ” Clancy, “, ” “, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, ”, Pantheon Locations: New York

Student loan repayments restart in October after a three-year suspension during the COVID-19 pandemic. In isolation, none would likely shift policymakers' sense of the short-term risks or change their focus on quelling still-elevated inflation. By Goldman's estimate the economy would still be growing at a 1.3% annual rate at that point. But the amounts they see sliced from GDP are more than the 1% growth rate Fed officials expected the economy to muster as of June, and beyond many private forecasts as well. Some economists say the resumption of student loan repayments for tens of millions of borrowers may already be reshaping behavior.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Vincent Reinhart, Reinhart, Michael Pearce, Ian Shepherdson, Kieran Clancy, They've, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Federal, Republicans, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Mellon, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Congressional, U.S . Department, Education, Thomson

☆ US consumers are feeling less optimistic about the economy for the first time this summer
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —Americans became slightly less optimistic about the economy this month, following two straight months of growing confidence. Sentiment had been on an upswing throughout the summer, mostly due to slower inflation, and is well above the record lows reached this time last year. Signs of cooling inflationGas prices, which are highly visible indicators of inflation for consumers, have risen in recent weeks, which could weigh on sentiment in the future. Still, consumers face the resumption of student loan payments later this year, and that could weigh on household budgets. US consumers opened up their wallets this summer, with many flocking to the smash-hit “Barbie” movie, attending concerts by Taylor Swift or Beyoncé, or traveling abroad.

Persons: “, ”, Joanne Hsu, Ryan Sweet, bode, Kieran Clancy, Barbie, Taylor Swift Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan, University of Michigan’s, University, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Pantheon, Consumer, Commerce Department, Federal, Atlanta Locations: Washington, June’s, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Michigan

☆ Retail sales rose in June for third straight month
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —Spending at US retailers rose in June for the third month in a row, in a subdued show of resilience from American consumers. Retail spending, which is adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, rose 0.2% in June, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Furniture sales jumped 1.4% in June from the prior month, while spending at department stores fell by 2.4% during the same period. Excluding sales at gasoline stations and on cars and parts, retail sales rose 0.3% in June from May. From a year earlier, overall retail sales rose 1.5% in June, the second-weakest pace since May 2020.

Persons: ”, Ian Shepherdson, Kieran Clancy, —, Lydia Boussour Organizations: DC CNN, Retail, Commerce Department, ”, Employers, Federal Reserve, ” Fed, Fed Locations: Washington, EY

☆ The number of small firms raising prices fell to the lowest level since March 2021
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —The number of small businesses saying they raised their prices fell in June to its lowest level since March 2021, according to a survey released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business. The share of respondents who reported higher prices dropped by three points last month to 29%, “still a very inflationary level but trending down,” the report showed. “Inflation and labor shortages continue to be great challenges for small businesses,” said the NFIB’s chief economist Bill Dunkelberg in a release. The current tight labor market has been keeping pressure on employers to raise prices to protect their margins — a dynamic that Fed Chair Jerome Powell discussed in recent remarks. The impact of improving supply chainsThe economy has slowed from its red-hot pace after rebounding from the pandemic, but some dynamics that prompted businesses to raise prices have been slowly unwinding.

Persons: “, Kieran Clancy, ”, Bill Dunkelberg, Jerome Powell, Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Federal Reserve, Fed, Research, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington, San

☆ The biggest home buyers in America are now selling more property than they're buying
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial property headwinds aside, today we're looking at the residential housing market, which is undergoing its own shifts, but not exactly in the same direction. Tell someone that the housing market is so unfavorable right now that the biggest home buyers in the country are actually net sellers now. American Homes 4 Rent, for example, bought 312 single-family homes and sold 666 to start the year. Similarly, Invitation Homes, the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US, bought 194 homes and sold 297 in the first quarter of 2o23. Naturally, the housing market has slowed down for everyday Americans, too, given the steep mortgage rates and lack of affordability.

☆ There's one simple reason why US housing inventory is set to remain low for the foreseeable future
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The share of outstanding mortgages financed at less than 3% jumped during the pandemic, said Pantheon Macroeconomics. New home listings in April were down more than 20% from a year ago, according to Realtor.com, with steepening mortgage rates a factor. It also found that about 97% of outstanding mortgages are fixed for 15 years or for 30 years, and 60% are just one to four years old. "In other words, most existing homeowners are not going to move unless they absolutely have to, due to death, divorce, or an—irresistible—job offer," said Clancy. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is averaging 6.55%, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association on Thursday.

☆ Opinion | The Housing Market Has Cooled, But It’s Not Frozen
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

With fewer people selling, some people who might have bought an existing home from a homeowner are instead buying a new home from a builder. Sales of new single-family homes rose in March, the Census Bureau reported on Tuesday. Given those changes, “unless you’re a person who needs to make a move, there’s little incentive” to move now, Vanden Houten told me. Of course, some people still are putting their homes on the market, and Vanden Houten herself was recently one of them. “A lot of people have earned a substantial amount of housing equity,” Lautz said.

☆ Home prices will fall 15% over the next year as high interest rates squeeze the housing market, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Home prices are set to drop 15% over the next year, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. That's because rates are likely to remain high, helping push down affordability and demand as a result. Some economists think a housing market recovery could be coming in 2024. US home prices have fallen amid higher mortgage rates over the last year, notching their seventh straight month of declines in January. Mortgage rates touched a 20-year-high in 2022 and have stayed elevated, crimping housing affordability and demand while putting downward pressure on prices.

☆ Home construction unexpectedly surged in February as slump in lumber prices offset pain of rising mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US housing starts surged in February, with the upside surprise boosted by falling lumber prices in the month. Construction projects pushed through a period of rising mortgage rates. "New residential construction reflected improving builder optimism and declining lumber costs in February, even during a month of rising mortgage rates," George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com, wrote Thursday. Rising mortgage rates and recession fears have dragged prices nearly 70% lower in the last year. "That said, we maintain that a sustained recovery in housing construction is out of the question, for now," Clancy said.

☆ A chief economist who called the 2008 housing bubble says home prices will fall another 15% over the next year as they remain too disconnected from buyer incomes and the supply of homes on the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Central to their call is the fact that homes remain vastly unaffordable. Homes remain near their most unaffordable levels since the early 1980s, according to the National Association of Realtors' Housing Affordability Index. Home prices fall when supply outpaces demand. "New home sales remain prone to slump suddenly if the upward trend in existing home supply continues," Clancy said. KMPG economists say prices could fall as much as 20% in 2023, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley say prices will fall another 6.1% and 4%, respectively.

☆ Investors won't see big returns on stocks 2023 if a Santa rally doesn't happen before the new year.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is down about 19% on the year, and those losses could spill over into the new year if stocks don't see the usual holiday rally. But if the S&P 500 misses that final rally, that bodes poorly for rebound odds in 2023. The lack of a holiday rally so far suggests that more rocky markets await when the calendars change. Recall that while the S&P 500 tumbled 37% in 2008, it rebounded 26% in 2009. What's your stock market outlook for 2023?

☆ Homebuilding has more room to fall, and odds for a recovery are 'next to nil' until demand improves, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Homebuilding has room to fall further even after the latest drop in housing starts, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. Senior US economist Kieran Clancy wrote in a Tuesday note that demand needs to improve before a recovery can begin. New housing data showed single-family home starts declined 4.1% last month. Meanwhile, building permits plunged 11.2%, with single-family permits down 7.1% and multifamily down 17.9%. Clancy added that the likelihood of a homebuilding recovery remains "next to nil until housing demand improves in a sustained and meaningful way."

☆ Home prices could fall faster if once-reluctant sellers flood the market with more supply before the downside worsens, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Previously reluctant home sellers could flood the market with inventory before prices decline further, he warned. "We think prices need to drop by about 20% from their spring peaks in order to reach a sustainable level," he said. So far, the inventory of existing homes has crept up to 3.2 months' worth of sales in October from 1.5 months' worth in January. "That trickle of supply could quickly become a flood, though, increasing the speed — if not the ultimate depth — of the decline in home prices," Clancy said. "We think prices need to drop by about 20% from their spring peaks in order to reach a sustainable level."

☆ Home price declines will accelerate even as sales bottom out early next year, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The decline in home prices will accelerate even as sales are headed for a bottom early next year, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. "The good news for homebuilders is that a floor is coming," Pantheon economist Kieran Clancy said in a note. "The good news for homebuilders is that a floor is coming," Pantheon economist Kieran Clancy said in a note. "Mortgage rates have peaked, suggesting that demand will flatten in the months ahead, albeit at an extremely depressed level. Accordingly, we expect housing starts and sales to bottom out early next year, even as the decline in home prices accelerates."

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