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☆ Japan's Nikkei seen rising to 35,000 by mid-2024 on earnings boost: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A man looks at an electric board displaying the Nikkei stock average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan June 14, 2023. The median forecast for the Nikkei's level in mid-2024 was 35,000, with responses ranging from 31,143 to 39,500, the Reuters poll of 10 stocks strategists taken Nov. 10-20 showed. Japan's equity benchmark started this week by pushing to its highest level since March 1990 at 33,853.46 following a three-week winning streak. That would mean some stagnation for equities in the latter half of next year, with the Nikkei still stuck at 35,000 at year-end, according to the median poll response. "35,000 looks to be about the level where Nikkei gains line up with the timing of the BOJ getting rid of negative interest rate policy," Sycamore said.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Masayuki Kichikawa, IG's, Tony Sycamore, Sycamore, Kevin Buckland, Junko Fujita, Noriyuki, Rahul Trivedi, Pranoy, Alex Richardson Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Federal, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, IG's Sydney

Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. The benchmark JGB yield climbed to 0.845% right at the start of the trading day, its highest since July 2013, after revisiting peaks the previous day as well. But it eased immediately after the BOJ announcement, and was last 1.0 basis point (bp) lower than Thursday's closing level at 0.83%. The BOJ caps the 10-year yield at 1% under its yield curve control (YCC) policy, after doubling it in a surprise move at the end of July. "If the yen crosses 150, it would of course be more difficult for the BOJ to intervene in the JGB market.

Persons: Issei Kato, Masayuki Kichikawa, YCC, Fumio Kishida, Brigid Riley, Kevin Buckland, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S

☆ Yen intervention a hard sell even as 150 to the dollar 'red line' beckons
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But, Japanese authorities could find propping up their currency both difficult to achieve and hard to justify. To make even a ripple in the $5 trillion currency market, the BOJ would need to draw down massive amounts of dollar reserves. Wakabayashi, like many other analysts and investors, considers the 150 yen per dollar level a red line for currency intervention, not least because of its significance as a symbol of climbing costs of living from imported food and fuel. INTERVENTION IMMINENTThe yen careened to a 32-year trough at 151.94 last October before being reined in by several bouts of heavy intervention, the first by Japanese authorities in a generation. Measures of expected market volatility remain subdued.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Bank of Japan's hesitancy, Kazuo Ueda, You've, they're, Bart Wakabayashi, Fumio Kishida, Shunichi Suzuki, Masayuki Kichikawa, Ray Attrill, Janet Yellen, Aninda Mitra, Mitra, Kevin Buckland, Alun John, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan's, U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Fed, State Street Bank, Trust, Finance, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Ministry of Finance, National Australia Bank, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Washington, Asia, London

☆ China state banks seen mopping up offshore yuan to stem currency weakness
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Coins and banknotes of China's yuan are seen in this illustration picture taken February 24, 2022. Tightening up offshore yuan liquidity could also act to stabilise the yuan, one of the sources said. Following the state bank move, the offshore yuan rallied and was last trading at around 7.2834 per dollar, up around 0.3% on the day. The cost of shorting the yuan jumped, the state bank sources told Reuters, as seen from sudden rises in offshore yuan tomorrow-next forward points . During London trade, offshore yuan forwards jumped across the board amid signs of yuan liquidity tightness, with several banking sources attributing the liquidity squeeze to the activity by banks.

Persons: Florence Lo, Masayuki Kichikawa, Alvin Tan, Kevin Buckland, Ed Osmond, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, greenback, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Reuters, People's Bank of China, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, UBS, Shanghai Newsroom, Thomson Locations: China, London, Asia, Tokyo

☆ China surprises with modest rate cut amid growing yuan risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points to 3.45% from 3.55% previously, while the five-year LPR was left at 4.20%. The 10 bp cut in the one-year rate was smaller than the 15 bp cut expected by most poll respondents. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. The reduction in the one-year LPR came after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) unexpectedly lowered its medium-term policy rate last week. Cheung added that the unexpected rate outcome should be "negative to China growth outlook and the yuan exchange rate".

Persons: Tingshu Wang, LPR, Masayuki Kichikawa, Ken Cheung, Cheung, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Kevin Buckland, Sam Holmes Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Shanghai

☆ Analysis: Japan's policymakers hold fire as yen enters intervention range
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But a key factor behind the yen's weakness is unchanged, namely the yawning yield gap with the United States. Yet currency traders remain nervous about provoking intervention, as the yen entered the same zone that triggered heavy dollar selling by Japanese authorities in September and October of last year. For now, traders are testing the waters by selling the yen against sterling and the Swiss franc, mindful that selling against the dollar could gather momentum quickly. From a purely macroeconomic perspective, Kichikawa said, officials have no imperative to prevent yen weakness before 150, which is consistent with the mild inflationary pressure that the BOJ aims to foster. The bond market, which precipitated the yen's slide, may ultimately give Japan's authorities reason to hold off on pressing the intervention button.

Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Suzuki, Aaron Hurd, Masayuki Kichikawa, Brent, Kichikawa, Shinichiro Kadota, Kevin Buckland, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Bank of Japan, Finance, State Street Global Advisors, Swiss, Brent, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Treasury, Barclays, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, United States, Tokyo, Boston, Japan

☆ Factbox: Kazuo Ueda: Who is the new Bank of Japan governor and what can we expect from him?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Japan's government is likely to appoint Kazuo Ueda, an academic and a former member of the Bank of Japan's policy board, as the next central bank governor, two government officials told Reuters on Friday. The 71-year-old is widely seen as an expert on monetary policy, but is seen as a surprise appointment by analysts. The following are some key questions and answers about the next central bank governor in the world's third-largest economy and the challenges he faces. He is an external director at JGC Holdings Corp (1963.T), an engineering company and at the state-owned Development Bank of Japan. In a 2016 article, Ueda wrote that the BOJ's ultra-easy policy seemed to be "reaching its limits".

☆ Japan yields tumble to well below policy cap as BOJ stands pat
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A Japan Yen note is seen in this illustration photo taken June 1, 2017. The yield was at 0.51% prior to the Bank of Japan decision. "If they had expanded the band again or terminated YCC, yields would rise, which would be a de facto rate hike for a second consecutive meeting," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. The BOJ also made use of a newly announced policy tool immediately, offering five-year loans to financial institutions to enhance liquidity, and showing its resolve to keep yields low. At the post-meeting press conference, Kuroda defended the change, reiterating that widening the yield band has made YCC "fully sustainable".

☆ Bank of Japan keeps ultra-low rates, dovish policy guidance
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates and dovish policy guidance on Thursday, reassuring markets that it will continue to swim against a global tide of central banks tightening monetary policy to combat soaring inflation. "However, we believe that the BOJ will never allocate monetary policy for the FX rate adjustment and will stick to the YCC policy. "The most important thing is how the foreign-exchange rate reacts to that contrast in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan. It also leaves the impression there will be no change in monetary policy during Kuroda's remaining term." He has said lesser about any merit of the weak yen recently out of consideration towards public sentiment against rising costs of living."

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